Open 210: Carbon 14- Game over!

[semioldguy]

I really want to hammer semioldguy just to get him to shut up. I checked up on this site and I come to find like ten thousand post made by semioldguy individually disagreeing with everything Lacey says. Just say that you disagree with Lacey, don't double post the whole 2nd and 3rd page quoting Lacey and disagreeing with everything.

But she needs things re-explained (and she's almost there!)

Heres the possible situations seeing that semioldguy and Lacey are really going at it...
1) one of them is scum, that would probably be semioldguy
2) these are two townies butting heads and disagreeing about different ways to scum-hunt

I'm not sure which one it is, but if its the ladder, we should start looking somewhere else. I don't have a topic to bring up,

Ooh, oo... I have a topic. Why did you omit option "(3) they are both scum distancing from each other?" Is it because you are scum and know that we both can't be scum?

but before we lynch semioldguy for being annoying, can you just stop. JUST STOP!!! its really irritating to visit this forum and to see nothing put useless posts from semioldguy.

I'll consider it.

Something I have read constantly throughout this page on the forum is "policy lynches"
Excuse me for being ignorant, but what exactly is a policy lynch?

A policy lynch is when you want to lynch a player because they are a certain player rather than because of scummy things they did. An example would be five-word-post-man or post-once-every-four-days-man or never-gives-reasons-man who only post in those styles in every game they play. These people are deemed anti-town by many and a policy lynch would argue that the town could be better off without them regardless of which side they play for because they don't really participate.

[mavsfan41]

Okay, thanks for the explanation. If thats what policy lynches are, thats really dumb to lynch someone like that, especially in a 7 man set-up.

@semioldguy - you said that I didn't consider scenario 3, which is both of you guys being scum, and later explained that the reason I omitted that option was due to me being scum. First of all, I didn't consider that as an option because Lacey hasn't done anything scummy, I have pro-town read on her all the way, so unless sees playing really well as scum, shes town. That leads me to believe you're scum since you're going at it with her when she appears to be pro-town all the way. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you guys are just disagreeing on how to scum-hunt rather than you're scum and trying to get her lynched. I don't want to lynch anyone this early in the game with only 7 people.

Here's the thing, because you and Lacey are going at it, people can lurk and no one really knows anything about the lurkers. Since you're dominating the forum, the only people I have reads on are you and Lacey. The only thing I know about the other players so far is only that TheChestPube used foul language and the mod joked about modkilling him. Other than that, I don't know anything about the others.

[semioldguy]

I'll be keeping points to myself mostly, but mavsfan41 just earned an undisclosed amount of points to be removed from himself for an undisclosed reason relating to the above post.

It's good having you around in thread.

It is my belief that a majority of the discussion between myself and Lacey is null-tells as it's about scumhunting, which is theory-based.

[Jackabomb]

Good morning!

Well, seems nobody hammered or voted. And I was so looking forward to writing my first death scene.

By the way. That drunken sailor is back, and he's not too happy with you. You have until the deadline before he finds you and takes his revenge.

[mavsfan41]

I'll be keeping points to myself mostly, but mavsfan41 just earned an undisclosed amount of points to be removed from himself for an undisclosed reason relating to the above post.

It's good having you around in thread.

It is my belief that a majority of the discussion between myself and Lacey is null-tells as it's about scumhunting, which is theory-based.

So I'm winning, right? Or, is this like golf where the person who has the

fewest

lowest

score wins?

Grammar fix courtesy of Jackabomb.

[mavsfan41]

My bad, thanks. I was laughing to myself as I was typing.

[semioldguy]

which whether you intended it or not comes off as a veiled threat, that everyone needs to be aware of you're analysis and that EVERYTHING will be scrutenised to make you scummier on the 'scum scale' and that

if anyone should argue against it then you could easily reatliate with "its just what the 'scum scale' tells me".

It is your interpretation that everything will be scrutinized to make you scummier on the 'scum scale.' Why do you automatically assume that you will only move in that direction when I also state that I will be moving people down?

The last, bolded part is pure speculation. Period. You are theorizing what

could

happen. This is poor play and distracts from the game. Not only is this specifically NOT how I treat my scale, but you should use this as a point against me if it does happen (not before it happens mind you). The presence of a scale will not change what my cases and points against people are. The scale doesn't tell me what to do, I tell what the scale to do. (before you go and speculate that I could just change the scale to whatever my whimsy, don't. Again, speculation and diversion. In a case like that,

criticize the points I make against people

. Not the scale, the scale didn't do anything to you. I did.)

People should stop focusing on the point scale and my personality and look at the actual points I've made about other players this game.

[semioldguy]

First of all, I didn't consider that as an option because Lacey hasn't done anything scummy,

I have pro-town read on her all the way, so unless sees playing really well as scum, shes town

.

Quite the declaration to make so early into the game.

[semioldguy]

... as your opinion is just one person out of 5 pro town people and your idea of a "town-helpful" discussion may be different than others.

Okay, agreed. But as you may have noticed: I explain very specifically

why

I think that line of discussion is not town helpful. If you don't agree with my assessment, you should actually address the point I make and explain why I am wrong or why it is more helpful to town instead of twiddling your thumbs and avoiding the topic.

I'll give you a hand: "I am saying that telling the game what each of us is looking for when trying to find scum is bad because it alerts the scum to what specifically they should avoid around certain players. This is not helpful to town."

Additionally town do the same things: lying, misrepresenting, lurking, avoiding questions, having bad reasoning, etc that people look for in scum. I can point out how everyone so far has misrepresented my points system, but I know that people misrepresenting each other isn't indicative of being scum by use of my own critical thought and analysis rather than blindly following a tell.

[mavsfan41]

Well semioldguy, Lacey has done nothing but scum-hunt. She is clearly pro-town. Ask anyone who in this game. She has been pro-town the whole way so far. All you have done is taken other's posts and tried to manipulate them to have them say what you want them to say. It is quite possible that you originally brought up your dumb scale to show i your own little way that you were attempting to scum hunt, but all I've seen from you is anti-town play. If you are scum, I can only imagine what your partner is thinking up to this point, probably something along the lines of "great, I have to win this game all by myself since my dumb scum partner is pretty obvious." I really want to hear more from others before we end this day. With that being said, what's everyone's thoughts on semioldguy, is he scum or just anti-town? That's the question I have been asking myself and have been trying to figure it out and changing my mind everytime I read one of his post.
So, what's everyone's thoughts?

[semioldguy]

Well semioldguy, Lacey has done nothing but scum-hunt.

I disagree. the majority of her posts (and my own) are theory discussion, which is essentially null-tells for both of us as either of us would be saying the same things regardless of alignment in our conversation back and forth to one another (well, except for the fact that she is using my theory discussion as points against me being scum when it's only theory discussion and irrelevant to my alignment and I am using her theory discussion as points against her theory which in no way determines her alignment).

So the scum-hunting your seeing is pretty poor for reasons stated directly above.

with that being said, what's everyone's thoughts on semioldguy, is he scum or just anti-town? That's the question I have been asking myself and have been trying to figure it out and changing my mind everytime I read one of his post.
So, what's everyone's thoughts?

My thoughts are that this is a false dichotomy. (that's more of a fact than an opinion)

[mavsfan41]

Well semioldguy, Lacey has done nothing but scum-hunt.

I disagree. the majority of her posts (and my own) are theory discussion, which is essentially null-tells for both of us as either of us would be saying the same things regardless of alignment in our conversation back and forth to one another (well, except for the fact that she is using my theory discussion as points against me being scum when it's only theory discussion and irrelevant to my alignment and I am using her theory discussion as points against her theory which in no way determines her alignment).

So the scum-hunting

your

seeing is pretty poor for reasons stated directly above.

with that being said, what's everyone's thoughts on semioldguy, is he scum or just anti-town? That's the question I have been asking myself and have been trying to figure it out and changing my mind everytime I read one of his post.
So, what's everyone's thoughts?

My thoughts are that this is a false dichotomy. (that's more of a fact than an opinion)

If I had a point scale, you would have just gained like 7 points for this grammar mistake.
Just to clear it up, "your" is possessive, while the form you should have used was "you're" which is a contraction for "you are."

[semioldguy]

Yes, clearly grammar mistakes are indicative of being scum.

[mavsfan41]

My grammar mistake scale may be more accurate than your 33% scale. BTW, do you have a name for that thing? I was thinking something along the lines of "semioldguys semi flawed system." That's clever and it features alliteration. Think about it...

[horrordude0215]

Okay, I'm back and the family issues haven't been completely resolved, but this could hopefully provide an adequate distraction from RL!

I'm gonna do a readthrough either today or tomorrow depending on how busy I am and I'll post some thoughts then.

Poor you. If there's one thing I never liked about playing, it was rereading through posts until the words blurred together. I found that I couldn't reread very well, even if I wanted to, which wasn't a frequent occurrence.

In the mean time, does anyone have any questions they'd like to ask me?

[semioldguy]

My grammar mistake scale may be more accurate than your 33% scale. BTW, do you have a name for that thing? I was thinking something along the lines of "semioldguys semi flawed system." That's clever and it features alliteration. Think about it...

The comedy I see in the grammar flaw system is that you made a grammatical error yourself previously on this page.

Again, your (intentional grammatical error for hilarity) attacking the point scale directly. What is this retarded fixation upon the scale itself instead of the things that actually matter?! The scale itself is not what determines accuracy, PLEASE LOOK AT THE CASES!!!

THE CASES!!!

THE CASES!!!!!

[Lacey]

I disagree. the majority of her posts (and my own) are theory discussion

No they aren't.

They're about how you're building a case for why you are town, instead of a case that others are scum. Nearly ever post you've made since the game began have been attempts to install yourself as town, and as an authority in scum hunting, which from your record you are anything but (you've won less than 30% of your games as town).

My read on semioldguy right now is that he is scum, scum whose initial plan has gone off the rails and so he is now trying to be as disfunctional to a good town discussion as possible to derail town from identifying his scum partner.

My guess is his scum partner is in the faction which has formed against him. I'm about ready to

FoS

mavsfan for his attempts to seem opposed to semioldguy using grammar as an excuse, which I'd like to hear mavsfan explain in full.

[semioldguy]

I disagree. the majority of her posts (and my own) are theory discussion

No they aren't.

Really? Because most everything I have said between you and I has been based upon my own theory of scum hunting. (if you don't think I have, I challenge you to point out where it is not)

If you haven't been talking about theory... then what have you been talking about?

Are you using my theory discussion as scum/town tells? Because if you are, I could on for another two pages about why that is both reaching and extremely anti-town.

Does your scum-hunting theory and your scum-hunting ideas change based upon your alignment?

They're about how you're building a case for why you are town, instead of a case that others are scum. Nearly ever post you've made since the game began have been attempts to install yourself as town, and as an authority in scum hunting, which from your record you are anything but (you've won less than 30% of your games as town).

Straw man. My win record has little to do with my own scum hunting capabilities. Also, in addition to the straw man, this is a lie... I have won 31.58% of my games as town thank you very much.

The last time I checked, 31.58 was a larger number than 30.

back to the straw man; if you actually go through my town games and look at the players I suspect most on a day-to day basis, you'll find that over 60% of the time I have scum as my top suspect at the end of any given day during the game.

If you think I am lying then go through and prove it. It will be a huge waste of your time and you will only prove that I am being honest.

Also, as I have already asked of you, please point to where I am constructing myself as town? Can you explain how I am doing this? Or do you plan on continuing to avoid this query? (remember that "avoiding queries" is on your own list of scum tells)

You happen to have avoided quite a bit of queries that I have posed to you. Why are you avoiding these things?

[Lacey]

Straw man. My win record has little to do with my own scum hunting capabilities. Also, in addition to the straw man, this is a lie... I have won 31.58% of my games as town thank you very much.

The last time I checked, 31.58 was a larger number than 30.

Actually according to your wiki you've won 6, lost 13, drawn 2. So 6/21 ~ 0.286.

back to the straw man; if you actually go through my town games and look at the players I suspect most on a day-to day basis, you'll find that over 60% of the time I have scum as my top suspect at the end of any given day during the game.

Care to show us evidence of this?

Also, as I have already asked of you, please point to where I am constructing myself as town? Can you explain how I am doing this? Or do you plan on continuing to avoid this query? (remember that "avoiding queries" is on your own list of scum tells)

I've responded several times, but I'm currently compiling a full list. Expect it this evening.

You happen to have avoided quite a bit of queries that I have posed to you. Why are you avoiding these things?

If you'd like me to respond to something, ask me directly. I'd be happy to respond. Most of your long winded "theory" though I just checked of as a TL;DR ineffective troll. You're long winded and arrogant, and I have better things to do than read your soap boxes. Like put together my full analysis for the town so we can make a good case against your scummy behavior.

Or studying for your PhD.

[semioldguy]

Straw man. My win record has little to do with my own scum hunting capabilities. Also, in addition to the straw man, this is a lie... I have won 31.58% of my games as town thank you very much.

The last time I checked, 31.58 was a larger number than 30.

Actually according to your wiki you've won 6, lost 13, drawn 2. So 6/21 ~ 0.286.

Actually according to my wiki I've won 6, lost 13 and two were never games due to mod abandonment. so 6/19 ~ 31.58 (maybe you should learn to scroll down and actually read if you plan to use research)

back to the straw man; if you actually go through my town games and look at the players I suspect most on a day-to day basis, you'll find that over 60% of the time I have scum as my top suspect at the end of any given day during the game.

Care to show us evidence of this?

Since you are too lazy to do it yourself? Sure. It will be my next post.

Also, as I have already asked of you, please point to where I am constructing myself as town? Can you explain how I am doing this? Or do you plan on continuing to avoid this query? (remember that "avoiding queries" is on your own list of scum tells)

I've responded several times, but I'm currently compiling a full list. Expect it this evening.

Be sure to include where you've responded and how it was actually a response to my query as opposed to an answer to some question I didn't ask.

You happen to have avoided quite a bit of queries that I have posed to you. Why are you avoiding these things?

If you'd like me to respond to something, ask me directly.

Asking you directly hasn't been working, because you ignore the questions which I directly ask of you.

I'd be happy to respond.

If you'd be happy to respond, then go back and do so.

Actually responding is preferable to you saying that you'd be happy to respond.

To do this, you can ISO-me and then use ctrl+f on "?" and see if each hit is a question that was directed at you. (if you are also too lazy to do this, let me know and I'll mass quote it all in one post for you so that the thread can be further cluttered)

Most of your long winded "theory" though I just checked of as a TL;DR ineffective troll. You're long winded and arrogant, and I have better things to do than read your soap boxes. Like put together my full analysis for the town so we can make a good case against your scummy behavior.

So what did you read? Since practically everything was long-winded theory and arrogance. The rest was mostly questions that you didn't bother to answer.

[semioldguy]

Okay, here comes the fun statistics-post:

Newbie 763

Day One - Day is ending and my vote is on SisterCoyote, but gets switched to fallenangel after a counterclaim hijinx and fallenangel is the cop. Result:

Town

.
Day Two - Day last about ten seconds as we lynch battlemage who is scum and I accuse the last remaining scum of being scum as day ends and scum kill me that night. Result:

Scum

Newbie 764

Day Two - I replace in and I push the lynch on Kairyuu, who is town. Result:

Town

Day Three - I go after another town, Starbuck. Result:

Town

Day Four - I finally am voting scum Ojanen, but am lynched. Result:

Scum

Mini 775

Day One - I lead the wagon on kirroha and get the Godfather lynched, then am killed by scum the first night. Result:

Scum

Mini 776

Day One - I speak against the days main wagon and am pushing Rishi, who is scum. Result:

Scum

Day Two - I am still pushing against Rishi-scum. Result:

Scum

Open 151

Day 1 - I am voting Kise ho is scum. ZazieR-town gets quickhammered while I am away. Result:

Scum

Day 2 - I get quickhammered by scum before I can do much, but I'll be honest with myself and admit that I did not suspect Sotty7 as the other scum. Result:

Town

Mini 786

Day 2 - After replacing in I am pushing against StrangerCoug-town. Result:

Town

Day 3 - I vote to lynch KublaiKhan who flips scum. Result:

Scum

Day 4 - I am V/La for this day and they lynch scum without me. I would have been on the wagon, but there is no way to verify this so there will be no result here since there was no result in thread. Result: none
Day 5 - I lynch StrangerCoug, who was town. Result:

Town

Newbie 783

Day 1 - I push on Iecerint, who is town, but is not lynched. Result:

Town

Day 2 - I push on Iecerint, who is town, and is lynched. Result:

Town

Day 3 - I push Katy, who is scum, but I am lynched. Result:

Scum

Mini 784

Day 1 - I push fallenangel, this time instead of cop he is serial killer and is lynched. Result:

Scum

Day 2 - I push Malyss who is scum, but a townie is lynched instead and I am killed that night. Result:

Scum

MKM 2

Day 1 - Easy scum lynch of Shadow Knight. Result:

Scum

Day 2 - I lost my ability to vote from a scum night action and died the next night. Result: None

Mini 778

Day 1 - Led town-Mastin's lynch. Result:

Town

Day 2 - Went along with town-lobstermania's lynch. Result:

Town

Day 3 - Led the lynch on monkeyman-scum. Result:

Scum

Day 4 - Went with lynch of Gorrad, who was scum. Result:

Scum

Day 5 - Lynched BeyondBirthday, who was town. Result:

Town

Day 6 - Led lynch against melikefood, who was the last scum. Result:

Scum

DeathNote

Day 1 - I was behind and never got to play before I was day-killed by third party.

Stars Aligned

Day 1 - Went V/La after putting my vote on town-Zykezero, but I'll count it since I don't know that I would have switched. Result:

Town

Day 2 - Led the lynch on chenhsi, who was a murderer. Result:

Scum

Day 3 - Went right on through to dramonic, who was another Murderer. Result:

Scum

Day 4 - Kept on keeping on and pushed toward CSL heavily who was a Cultist. Result:

Scum

Day 5 - And finsihed it off by starting and gathering the wagon on Magua who was the last scum and a cultist. Result:

Scum

Mini 857

Day 1 - I lead the lynch against monkeyman, who is town. Result:

Town

Day 2 - I try to get Jazzmyn lynched unsuccessfully, and she was scum. Result:

Scum

Day 3 - I accurately call out all three scum who are left, Jazzmyn, Kublai Khan and Crazy as the only scum in the game as they group together and lynch me. Result:

Scum

Mini 859

Day 2 - I replace in and go after Sanjay, who is town and not lynched. Result:

Town

Day 3 - I continue after Sanjay, who is still town and lynch him this time. Result:

Town

Day 4 - We no lynch. My top suspect is scum, but I won't count it since I voted a no lynch.
Day 5 - Archaebob is my next suspect. he is scum, but Looker-town quickhammers me for bad reasons in lylo. Result:

Scum

Open 195

Day 1 - I was after Kunkstar7 who was town, but went V/La and scum was lynched instead. I can prove my opinion would have changed even though I know it would have, so I'll count this as me having my vote on town since that is where it was. Result:

Town

Day 2 - I went after Kunkstar7 as the other scum's buddy and was wrong, and then was killed by scum. Result:

Town

Mini 890

Day 1 - I help lead the lynch on mipe day one, who is scum. Result:

Scum

Day 2 - As I am lynched I have a choice of a player to take down with me by my vote. I choose SerialClergyman, and he is scum. Result:

Scum

Mini 920

Day 1 - I go after Lynx the Antithesis by myself and eventually get support from other players and he is scum. That night scum kill me. Result:

Scum

I omitted a couple games in which scum killed me during night zero so I never actually got to participate in those games.

Final Tally:

Times I settled on going after town at the end of the day: 16
Times I settled on going after scum at the end of the day: 24

That's 60% going after scum and in every single case where there could be any doubt, I automatically skew the statistic against my favor and assume that I would have been wrong so it is like a percentage point or two higher.

I also decided to total up the total number of scum and town in all the above combined days to provide a percentage of scum there were in the field (as to not skew my stats by playing in games that have higher scum percentages only) Not counting myself, since I'd never suspect myself, there were a total of 100 scum in the above mentioned days when all added together and 228 town members. That puts a random chance of selecting scum at ~ 30.6%.

My scum-hunting effectiveness is nearly twice the amount of a random selection (even including day one) and that is without ever having been an investigative role to know for sure that I would be hitting scum from a night result.

[Steam-Powered Shovel]

Gah, I picked the wrong day to be away for the site.

First, my FoS on page 1: it was relatively minor, I like FoSes and I like to be bandwagonning at that point in the game.

Second, policy lynches: I don't go for them.

Re the Lacey-semioldguy argument: I disagree with most of what semioldguy is saying, but I'm not really seeing anything genuinely scummy yet (as semioldguy correctly pointed, there's been quite a bit of theoretical discussion, which means a whole lot of null tells). So I'll

unvote

at this point. Lacey was looking pretty decent until post 91. She went from "quite possibly anti-town VT" (paraphrased) to probable scum rather quickly.

I like how mavsfan tried to derail this argument.

I will post more tomorrow. Need to sleep now.

[easjo682]

which whether you intended it or not comes off as a veiled threat, that everyone needs to be aware of you're analysis and that EVERYTHING will be scrutenised to make you scummier on the 'scum scale' and that

if anyone should argue against it then you could easily reatliate with "its just what the 'scum scale' tells me".

It is your interpretation that everything will be scrutinized to make you scummier on the 'scum scale.' Why do you automatically assume that you will only move in that direction when I also state that I will be moving people down?

The last, bolded part is pure speculation. Period. You are theorizing what

could

happen. This is poor play and distracts from the game. Not only is this specifically NOT how I treat my scale, but you should use this as a point against me if it does happen (not before it happens mind you). The presence of a scale will not change what my cases and points against people are. The scale doesn't tell me what to do, I tell what the scale to do. (before you go and speculate that I could just change the scale to whatever my whimsy, don't. Again, speculation and diversion. In a case like that,

criticize the points I make against people

. Not the scale, the scale didn't do anything to you. I did.)

your whole arguement between you and lacey was also a null tell, yes I do automatically assume that everyone is going to become scummier on your scale because thats what these kinds of things end up being.

People should stop focusing on the point scale and my personality and look at the actual points I've made about other players this game.

most people only made one or two posts about it, you're the one who took this out of proportion ending with a scrap between you and lacey

[TheChestPube]

Wow, you guys are like hyper-active. I went to bed and got back from school and had a page and a half to read!

Same here, mate.

People who scumhunt using this cookie-cutter response cause the town to lose. The human mind does not have a cookie cutter directional guide to what is going on. Many things are circumstantial and heavily rely on context.

I can agree with this. The hard part is putting whatever scumhunting processes a person uses in his head down on paper. Often what ends up being put down is the general methods of hunting.

What I do have a problem with is how vocal he was/is about it,
it comes across as a veiled threat, as though we all have him to listen to and make sure we tread carefully around, none of which I appreciate

. I do however think there is a strong possibility that he is just being obnoxious and
is not mafia. And I do think that this is being pushed toward a lynch too easily.

This is basically what I was trying to get across in my last post, I just like the way you said it better.

And as for the lynching part, my vote stands. If someone hammers this early on I think there would be a strong chance the hammerer would be scum.

What do you think of policy lynches? Do you agree with them or not? Why?

From my understanding of what a policy lynch is, it should only be used in large games as a last resort. If nobody is appearing very scummy and the town is stumped on who to lynch, it makes sense to me to lynch somebody who isn't particularly helpful and could hurt the town in the long run. In a game as small as ours, however, we cannot afford to have a policy lynch.

Letting semioldguy derail our attempts at case building and scum hunting is a bad idea.

I am not doing this. You are doing this to

yourselves

. Don't use me as a
scapegoat.

The "yourselves" part caught my attention. You say it as if you are not part of the scumhunting efforts. Small tell, more than likely a null tell, but still.

I also think that Lacey is town. She's a team player, and I get a very "townie" feel from her. To me she's seeming a lot more town than you, semioldguy. You definitely don't seem to be a team player, and most of the tells you have on Lacey are you trying to prove that her ways of scum hunting are wrong. Many other tells you have (I think) are due to her frustration at your unwillingness to accept that there are different ways to scum hunt.

And as for your argument about her avoiding queries, I honestly would have a hard time sorting through all the bullcrap of the past page and a half to find the questions that really needed to be answered.

The only thing I see wrong with Lacey was bringing statistics into the conversation. It was pretty irrelevant and unneeded. It does nothing to prove whether you are scum or not. If you two (semioldguy and Lacey) think that bringing scumhunting records into the conversation will help the town in any way, I'd like to hear your reasoning.

That's all I have to say for now, might post more after I cruise through page 3 to look for anything I missed.

[TheChestPube]

EBWOP: semioldguy, I'm glad to see you decided to keep your points to yourself. It tells me your not completely incapable of listening to reason, however stubborn you may be