Mini 911 - Mike's Pizzeria Mafia (Game Over)

[Jack]

Well, there's a decent shot of parama being the roleblocker. Or Seven.

[Thor665]

If DRK is telling the truth and is watcher then we know there's a roleblocker, so then as evilsnail noted the no lynch/watch/protect plan is terrible.

If DRK is telling the truth and evilsnail is also telling the truth then that means scum actually *chose* to nightkill Deathsauce. I personally just don't see that as a high likelihood. DS was fairly high placed on a handful of other player's scumdars.

I personally believe that either evilsnail or DRK is lying.

@Evilsnail - as Doc, why would you roleclaim at this juncture? As a Doc don't you tend to serve the town better without scum knowing who you are?

@DRK - you said there were three reasons you could think of that evilsnail is lying, could you be so kind as to provide them as three points in a list with any explanation needed?

[DeathRowKitty]

1. Sane cop+doctor+watcher+bodyguard seems overpowered for town.
2. He would have to have protected IK, which made little sense.
3. He didn't think to claim targets, which I would expect an actual doctor to do almost instinctively.
(4. He's scummy. That automatically increases the chances he's lying.)

[Seven]

Trying to get a handle on evilsnail.

The bottom line is that scum will not NK Seven, so, if we want him gone, we need to lynch him at some point.

I have a problem with the next few posts. Snail seems to be pushing for a policy lynch without wanting to support it himself. This is kind of up for interpretation I guess, but this is what I'm getting from it.

A few posts to show what I mean. Bold is pushing, italics is distancing.

I definitely didn't mean to imply that we need to lynch Seven at some point and that it doesn't matter when.

If we're going to lynch Seven as a matter of policy, we should lynch him asap. Otherwise, you just risk keeping him around for too long.

I'm just establishing the logic here.

What I'm trying to say is: if we want him gone, because we need to lynch Seven at some point, he would be a good policy lynch today.

Now, as I've stated, I'm just not really getting the case against Seven, so I don't see a convincing reason for wanting him gone. So, I really prefer going after someone who I actually think is scummy.

I just don't understand why he needs to say it so frequently if it isn't what he wants. "No, I don't want to lynch him... I'm just saying if YOU want to lynch him, we should do it NOW."

Note, btw, that I didn't say that Seven will never be NKed.

You did. ISO 0 quoted above.

A vanilla claim isn't like a carte blanche for lynching.

"Unless you guys want to lynch him... but I don't want to."

What are you thoughts on DRK right now?

I was too convinced Shiv was scum D2 to really care about ES, and kind of tried to ignore their whole dispute on semantics. I do love it though when people say how they're not going to do one thing and then they do it.

Whatever, I'm so not getting sucked into an argument over wording here. You asked me to clarify and I did. I'm totally not interested in an argument over what you think I said.

He argues about wording up to ISO 34.

Something about Shiverer's frustration on the last page feels genuine to me, though, so I'm inclined to believe him.

[on IK]

Rather, his unproductive attitude seems more constant, which makes me think it might not be genuine.

I take "unproductive" here to refer to IKs aggressiveness. While it annoys me to no end, I really don't think it's been unproductive. And I really don't see why the fact that it's constant, of all things, would be what makes it not genuine. Just doesn't make sense.

You say that my votes aren't motivated b a desire to catch scum, and instead by a desire to get rid of those who disagree with me. If the people who are disagreeing with me are promoting scummy play and calling it pro-town, or at the very least not scummy, then of course I'm going to vote them.

Why of course? If you find self-voting in RVS scummy and I don't and I do it (to elicit a reaction or something), that doesn't mean you should vote me. It's completely normal for people to have different views of what is scummy. You need to consider intent, a person's style of play. Ignoring this seems a cheap way of building a case. If Shiverer genuinely believes what he says, then I don't see how you can consider his behaviour a scum tell. The only relevant issue is then whether you believe Shiverer is lying. Do you believe he is?

Starts off by giving a completely ridiculous example. Yes it is normal for people to have different views on what is scummy. That's the whole game. I don't know what else to say about this... Sure Shiv flipped town, but he was playing very scummy and I think it would be way too easy for scum to agree with him on any point.

He says to Thor:

Voting someone for having a different opinion on what is scummy only makes sense if you think they're lying.

This was not the basis of IKs vote. He was voting Shiv for promoting scummy play and saying it wasn't scummy when it was. This is why Shiv got lynched (or at least why I put my vote on him).

The way things were going I'm surprised ES voted Shiv. There was a DRK wagon IIRC and it seemed like he was siding with Shiv.

In my experience, whenever someone has claimed that a wagon must have been pushed by scum, they're usually wrong and doing it to further their own agenda. What characteristic does a wagon have that makes it likely to have been pushed by scum and not by town? That it built up fast? That it was wrong? I don't see how those don't apply to town-wagons. I mean, just looking at the numbers, we can be relatively certain that the majority of the people who were voting Shiv are town.

Trying to pretend scum aren't on the Shiv wagon. Right.

Also, there's something I've been thinking about since Day 2. What if we No Lynch?

Why were you thinking about this since D2? Because you knew you were lynching town?

I suppose so. To be honest, to my recollection I've never played in a game with a scum role like that. I see it as an extremely rare role, especially in a mini.

Considering ES is supposedly doc, it almost seems fair to me that scum would have some special role that could make a no-lynch today a huge mistake. He had this knowledge at the time he made this post, the fact that he thinks that kind of scum PR is unlikely makes me feel like this is a fakeclaim.

There are some points here that I didn't think about. I'm leaning towards lynching today now. There's a reasonable consensus that Parama is the right lynch today anyway. It's not like this is likely to change by tomorrow.

Why isn't it likely to change? What about all this extra night information we were supposed to get by no lynching today? I feel like this is too easy a flip. Along with everything else: scum going with the flow.

We don't need all remaining PRs, if we have them, to claim. It could just make them easy NKs. It only really makes sense for investigative roles, if we have any left, and lynch suspects to claim.

Why only investigative roles? So scum can finish the rest of them off N3? I know you're claiming doc so if you ARE doc it makes sense because you could protect them, but it also makes sense if you're scum.

I should be obvious now why I was hesitant to claim.

Yeah, you didn't know if there was a doc and you wanted to make sure there wouldn't be a counter-claim.

I have no idea what you're talking about here. I protected Thor N1 and Idiotking N2.

I haven't dealt with many PRs, but

@DRK

if N2 IK was targetted by DS and ES, doesn't that mean ES is the one who killed DS by trying to kill IK? Or would scum not show up in this case?

Anything I had on DRK is irrelevent with his Watcher claim (which I believe). The prospects today are Parama and ES, and I have a lot more on ES that seems deliberately scummy than Parama who mostly has a problem with making solid decisions... which isn't necessarily scummy (but it is anti-town).

Further reasoning here is that if ES is a doc, he's going to be killed tonight anyway. If there is a mafia roleblocker DRK will be blocked and we won't know who killed ES. I don't believe ES is a doc, so he is the logical lynch.

Vote: Snail

[Seven]

Err sorry I did not realize how massive that was...

[Jack]

Parama--Seven--Evilsnail does seem most likely

[Seven]

Did you actually read all that or are you basing this on something else?

[DeathRowKitty]

I haven't dealt with many PRs, but @DRK if N2 IK was targetted by DS and ES, doesn't that mean ES is the one who killed DS by trying to kill IK? Or would scum not show up in this case?

Well, there's two possibilities:
1. ES tried to kill IK.
2. ES is a doctor who just happened to be protecting IK.

Nothing he's said even remotely convinces me that he would protect IK night 2. I'm heavily leaning option 1 for previously stated reasons. I might put a vote down tonight (or I might wait until tomorrow for Parama to get back). Do expect a vote on him from me at some point.

It wouldn't surprise me if Thor is scum. He's been a huge wildcard for me all game. His actions have been pro-town, but he's been setting my gut off more than any other player in the game. Possibly worth looking into.

I don't think IK is scum. I've been clear on this all game.

Parama...I need to reread. Speaking of which, I need to get around to rereading the game. Next couple days. Seriously.

Seven's sort of the opposite of Thor. His posts look really scummy, but I don't get a scummy vibe off of him. And he's voting evilsnail!

I've kind of ignored Jack's posts TBH and I just realized that now. Another thing to look out for in my reread. If I had to pick, I would put him as town.

I've forgotten who LS was. As of my day 2 iso of him, I wouldn't support his lynch. I guess that means I don't find him that scummy. *shrug*

DeathRowKitty is obv-town and awesome. Lazy at times, but awesome.

---

If I had to pick out 3 players as scum right now, evilsnail would definitely be my top. I would probably include Thor just based on gut, along with possibly Parama.

[Thor665]

It wouldn't surprise me if Thor is scum. He's been a huge wildcard for me all game. His actions have been pro-town, but he's been setting my gut off more than any other player in the game. Possibly worth looking into.

You keep dancing around me like this.

If I'm worth looking into (as your list of three scum implies) then please look into me. Personally I'd like to at least hear some vague commentary from you on where this gut read comes from.

I am interested that in your eyes the following seems to hold true;
1. I act townish.
2. Seven acts scummy.
3. I am probably scum, maybe sorta on gut.
4. Because Seven has voted evilsnail he is not on your likely scum list.

A question; If I had already voted for evilsnail would you still consider me scummy? Why/why not would this clear me considering the apparent effect a evilsnail vote had on Seven?

[Jack]

hmm, I find him scummy but I'm not comfortable lynching evilsnail today. There's nothing to rule out DRK having made it up. There is a definite scum plot feel to DRK's case.

[evilsnail]

If DRK is telling the truth and evilsnail is also telling the truth then that means scum actually *chose* to nightkill Deathsauce. I personally just don't see that as a high likelihood. DS was fairly high placed on a handful of other player's scumdars.

There are reasons beside towniness for choosing a NK target. I see your point, but NK speculation is notoriously unreliable.

@Evilsnail - as Doc, why would you roleclaim at this juncture? As a Doc don't you tend to serve the town better without scum knowing who you are?

Well, if you look back, I did say that I thought only investigative roles should claim. Then people jumped all over this remark and we started the mass claim. At that point, I felt it was probably best not to lie, since no one seemed to agree with me the first time around.

1. Sane cop+doctor+watcher+bodyguard seems overpowered for town.

Not if we have a scum roleblocker.

3. He didn't think to claim targets, which I would expect an actual doctor to do almost instinctively.

Seriously? What is the added value in claiming targets?

Seven, while I appreciate your effort in finding

every single thing I've posted scummy

, I'm only going to respond to the new things in your post. A lot of it I addressed back when it was posted and discussed.

The way things were going I'm surprised ES voted Shiv. There was a DRK wagon IIRC and it seemed like he was siding with Shiv.

Prior suspicions of SeerPenguin + his scummy attack on me + deadline.

Why were you thinking about this since D2? Because you knew you were lynching town?

No... it would have made sense D2 as well. The reason why No Lynch makes sense is because we have an even number of players. Statistically, it's better for town to have an odd number of players, even if this involves sacrificing a player.

Considering ES is supposedly doc, it almost seems fair to me that scum would have some special role that could make a no-lynch today a huge mistake. He had this knowledge at the time he made this post, the fact that he thinks that kind of scum PR is unlikely makes me feel like this is a fakeclaim.

BS. I wasn't thinking about a scum PR at all, because I thought it was a cop+doc+bodyguard set-up and that seems reasonably balanced. Regardless, though, a Mafia Poisoner is a very rare role, even for a scum PR.

Yeah, you didn't know if there was a doc and you wanted to make sure there wouldn't be a counter-claim.

This doesn't even make any sense. I was hesitant to claim. It's not like I asked to be last to claim.

[Jack]

Checking back on DRK's breadcrumbs (which I mostly skipped because scum often breadcrumb), he did breadcrumb an IK watch way before evilsnail said he protected IK.

[Thor665]

@Evilsnail - as Doc, why would you roleclaim at this juncture? As a Doc don't you tend to serve the town better without scum knowing who you are?

Well, if you look back, I did say that I thought only investigative roles should claim. Then people jumped all over this remark and we started the mass claim. At that point, I felt it was probably best not to lie, since no one seemed to agree with me the first time around.

Without going back to check I recall that DRK and IK were very much in favor of a claim. DRK said it was to get info from information roles. I also know for an absolute fact that I replied to you saying that there were probably roles out there that might do better staying hidden and that we could trust the players of those roles to have the two brain cells to rub together to keep mum if it helped town.

A couple of questions.

1. Do you believe DRK's claim - why/why not?
2. Who do you currently think are most likely scum (2-3 names please)

[Thor665]

Checking back on DRK's breadcrumbs (which I mostly skipped because scum often breadcrumb), he did breadcrumb an IK watch way before evilsnail said he protected IK.

That is an interesting aspect. My biggest issue with the current situation is we are left with the following possibilities.

DRK is telling truth - evilsnail is scum.

The biggest hurdle with this one is that we have to believe that evilsnail suspected a Watcher and/or knew DRK was the Watcher. The biggest support for this is evilsnail not listing his targets till after DRK called him on it. This is currently the scenario I believe in the most.

Evilsnail is telling truth - DRK is scum.

This seems unlikely but I suppose DRK could have just opted to counterclaim the Doc knowing that it made it a 50/50 that scum win if we lynch wrong. His breadcrumbing becomes quite clever and precognitive for this to have happened though.

Both are telling the truth.

This is possible, though it does mean scum chose to target DeathSauce which bewilders me. To be honest I'm almost against this one simply due to the unlikelihood that IK was able to convince three separate power roles that he was the optimal target of choice. Even so this is my second most likely scenario.

Both are scum.

Possible as a very elaborate and unneeded gambit to clear one of their members at a point in the game they don't need to.

@Everyone - I abhor playing the newbie card here, but I really must. I'm way too stupid and new to really know how much consideration or validity to put into the discussion of the number of power roles and which are/are not likely to be in this game in any given proportions. Any ed-ju-ma-cation in that regard would be appreciated.

[Jack]

Eh, I'm not familiar with what setup is likely either. And sometimes there are wacky setups.

Evilsnail could have been roleblocked, and the scum targetted IK. That would just require both snail and DS to have guessed the scum target.

[Thor665]

Evilsnail could have been roleblocked, and the scum targetted IK. That would just require both snail and DS to have guessed the scum target.

This could only happen if DRK is lying and is not the Watcher. Otherwise he would have 'seen' the third attendee to the party at IK's slot.

[Jack]

Evilsnail could have been roleblocked, and the scum targetted IK. That would just require both snail and DS to have guessed the scum target.

This could only happen if DRK is lying and is not the Watcher. Otherwise he would have 'seen' the third attendee to the party at IK's slot.

That's true, it would require DRK to be lying. Because otherwise snail would not have turned up.

[Thor665]

[offtopic] Wouldn't he still show up because he targeted the slot whether or not his effect was blocked? [/offtopic]
Also, as noted, if evilsnail was blocked and scum targeted IK then DRK would have seen that scum as one of the people targeting IK.

[Jack]

unvote

I'm thinking my unease with DRK was just paranoia. Hmm. I'd like to think it's as simple as a 1-2-3 lynch on evilsnail, parama, and seven.

[Seven]

Jack why are you unvoting if you think DRK unease is paranoia?

[Idiotking]

To be honest I'm almost against this one simply due to the unlikelihood that IK was able to convince three separate power roles that he was the optimal target of choice. Even so this is my second most likely scenario.

well thats not very nice


I'm willing to go along with DRK on this one. It seems significantly more likely for DRK to be telling the truth than for evilsnail to be telling the truth, and I don't see it very likely for both or neither to be telling the truth.




also there's someone down the hallway who keeps whistling day after day hour after hour

[Idiotking]

Unvote

Vote evilsnail

In review, it sort of makes sense. Shiv was flying off in all directions and scum would have known he was town, so evilsnail may have been trying to buddy by agreeing with Shiv on almost all counts. However, at the end of the day, evilsnail still voted for Shiv. This irks me, and I don't know what to think of it at the moment.

[Thor665]

Mod: may we please have a vote count update?

I think we're at 2 votes for evilsnail with DRK down as a promissory vote once he returns.

I really want to hear more from Parama at this juncture and I don't think he's back till either tomorrow or perhaps Saturday

I'm willing to go along with DRK on this one. It seems significantly more likely for DRK to be telling the truth than for evilsnail to be telling the truth, and I don't see it very likely for both or neither to be telling the truth.

I clearly agree with you that the likelihood of them both lying is so infinitesimal as to not be worth discussion. However, what are you using as the evidence to rule out that evilsnail is perhaps telling the truth? As noted, my biggest roadblock to this is the logic of how he knew DRK was a Watcher and thus knew to claim an IK targeting. Also, if he's scum, why would he claim Doc at a point where I think it was fairly much the general consensus that we were probably done with our power roles?

[DeathRowKitty]

I am interested that in your eyes the following seems to hold true;
1. I act townish.
2. Seven acts scummy.
3. I am probably scum, maybe sorta on gut.
4. Because Seven has voted evilsnail he is not on your likely scum list.

He's not just not on my scum list because he voted evilsnail. I'm just not getting scum vibes off him. The evilsnail vote is a bonus.

1. Sane cop+doctor+watcher+bodyguard seems overpowered for town.

Not if we have a scum roleblocker.

I still don't see how it balances. Given the current site meta on sane cop+doctor, I highly doubt town would have watcher+bodyguard in addition, considering a watcher can also essentially serve as a protective role (by watching a power role) in addition to its investigative power. Even with a roleblocker, scum would need noticeably more. It just doesn't balance out. Considering this is a mini normal, I can't think of a fitting role to give scum to make this work.

3. He didn't think to claim targets, which I would expect an actual doctor to do almost instinctively.

Seriously? What is the added value in claiming targets?

It's just something I would expect a doctor to claim without thinking. Once the doctor does decide to claim, "I protected xxxx because yyyy and zzzz because of [letter after z]" just seems so natural for a real doctor to say.

@Everyone - I abhor playing the newbie card here, but I really must. I'm way too stupid and new to really know how much consideration or validity to put into the discussion of the number of power roles and which are/are not likely to be in this game in any given proportions. Any ed-ju-ma-cation in that regard would be appreciated.

Gave my \frac{12}{\pi^2}\zeta(2) cents on this earlier in the post.

As for the thing about evilsnail being blocked, if that were the case, I wouldn't have been told he targetted IK (at least I assume not) and he probably would have been told he was blocked (once again, a guess).

Considering ES got another vote, I'll wait until Parama comments on the situation before I vote. Barring crazy circumstances, evilsnail will have my vote as soon as Parama gets back.

[Thor665]

I am interested that in your eyes the following seems to hold true;
1. I act townish.
2. Seven acts scummy.
3. I am probably scum, maybe sorta on gut.
4. Because Seven has voted evilsnail he is not on your likely scum list.

He's not just not on my scum list because he voted evilsnail. I'm just not getting scum vibes off him. The evilsnail vote is a bonus.

At the very least can you explain why I am higher then Parama on your scumlist? Is he on there for less then a gut read (which is all you have thus far claimed for me)? If he's on there for less then that I can't imagine why he's there. If he's there for more then that I question why I am above him in your eyes.