Mini 918 - A Hot, Steaming Bowl of Mafia - Game Over!

[charter]

Yeah, I went back and reread and looked mostly through day one, and those are the people who weren't voting MIC. I was mostly looking to see if I could draw any connections to people from MIC's posts, but there's really little there to work with. Then I read like half of day two and just stopped because I wasn't seeing these people posting anything at all. I didn't reread all the way up to Bio's hammer, I had stopped before I got that far. Kind of a brain fart I guess.

[charter]

That was in response to d3x's 298.

[d3x]

Bio- What are your thoughts about D1 and D2 {before you joined}? What are your thoughts on Konowa? What are your thoughts on Nik/Zach?

[Col.Cathart]

Hmm... Actually after I gave it some more thought, if charter speaks truth, he still has a vig up his sleeve. That means his claim is more or less provable. potential mislynch + NK + potential misvig may cost us the game, but if we'll decide to no-lynch there should still be at least 5 people tomorrow if charter speaks the truth or 6 if charter is a dirty liar (or has a really poor luck with choosing the same victim as scum again, though that would make the number of unlucky coincidences a bit too high in my books especially considering [if charter speaks truth] two juicy town power-roles to kill). I didn't really scan the idea for all it's pros and cons, but I think it's worth discussing.

[d3x]

Meh, it's not actually

that

provable. Let's say he's telling the truth, yeah? We Vote:No Lynch today and the Scum just No Kill tonight. Only 1 player dies tonight and we're stuck in a mire of WIFOM {unless he actually hits Scum}. Did charter kill or did the Scum? If there was only 1 death, is he outed as a fake or is it just 'bad luck' as you said? Did they both pick the same target? There's a lot of things that are off about that.

I think it's very dangerous to pin our hopes on him not being Scum. Also let's assume the worst, mislynch and NK put us 2 townies down. Potentially that should still be salvageable, but mislynch+NK+potential misVig is just plain suicide.

I'm not saying he's the 100% Lynch today {I'm looking at you Bio}, but I think this line of thought this early in the Day is very dangerous. If charter's not the Lynch for today, then I suggest we look at his other abilities for tonight.

[Zachrulez]

Yeah, I'm finding Charter's claim hard to believe.

You'd have to buy 2 vigilantes AND 2 investigative roles.

It looks pretty convenient too.

The whole, I didn't cop Shotty because I don't waste roles on people who are going to be lynched anyway. But that doesn't really explain why you used your roleblocker power on him instead, and you're basing THAT logic on the presumption that he'd be sending in the scum's kill.

[charter]

Hmm... Actually after I gave it some more thought, if charter speaks truth, he still has a vig up his sleeve. That means his claim is more or less provable. potential mislynch + NK + potential misvig may cost us the game, but if we'll decide to no-lynch there should still be at least 5 people tomorrow if charter speaks the truth or 6 if charter is a dirty liar (or has a really poor luck with choosing the same victim as scum again, though that would make the number of unlucky coincidences a bit too high in my books especially considering [if charter speaks truth] two juicy town power-roles to kill). I didn't really scan the idea for all it's pros and cons, but I think it's worth discussing.

I have no delusions that if I don't kill scum, I'm going to get lynched if the game doesn't end.

I'm not saying he's the 100% Lynch today {I'm looking at you Bio}, but I think this line of thought this early in the Day is very dangerous. If charter's not the Lynch for today, then I suggest we look at his other abilities for tonight.

This is actually a really good idea, and the worst case scenario is I soak up the NK.

Yeah, I'm finding Charter's claim hard to believe.

You'd have to buy 2 vigilantes AND 2 investigative roles.

It looks pretty convenient too.

Did you miss my whole don't outguess the mod post?

[d3x]

Zach- What are your thoughts about D1 and D2 {before you joined}? What are your thoughts on Nik? What are your thoughts on Konowa/Bio?

[Locke Lamora]

Charter: you think it's scummy to ask the claimed tracker if he has any results? I'm not really buying that you forgot a suspect either. You seem like the kind of player who might forget about those who you don't find all that scummy, but someone who drops the hammer way too early without waiting for a claim to be verified? Not quite sure how you forgot that.

[RedCoyote]

In hindsight, hammering hoopla was a bad call, and I apologize. And I can see why everyone wants to vote me.

A humble post is what I needed to hear, frankly. Because I think it shows you're listening to other players and understanding a different point of view. I can also understand a player who kind of makes a spur of the moment decision, is criticized for it, and wants to defend it. That's a pride thing, and I get that. I think most people would've done the same thing.

Hmmm...

This is quite the decision now. I can literally see my vote going three different ways.

---

This is actually a really good idea, and the worst case scenario is I soak up the NK.

Right. This is what charter brings to the table that Zach and BH (supposedly) cannot. If charter is alive tonight, we could benefit from his power, he could be night killed, or he's in hot water tomorrow. As the Colonel says, the town kind of has a reasonable out with charter no matter his alignment.

How can BH or Zach offer the town anything better?

[Bio Hazard]

Bio- What are your thoughts about D1 and D2 {before you joined}?

I'm willing to bet that scum were on the MOI wagon, probably late (charter). I'm also looking at the rivaling D1 hoopla wagon (locke). But I disagree with my replacee about RC, he gives me an overall town vibe.

What are your thoughts on Konowa?

I know it doesn't look good that Konowa's vote was on RC on D1, but I know he's town.

What are your thoughts on Nik/Zach?

Since Nik didn't post much D1, I can't get a read on her. Zach backed his hoopla vote up well, so I have a town read on him. So, currently my two biggest suspects are locke and charter. And I'm still not buying the charter claim.

In orange

[charter]

Charter: you think it's scummy to ask the claimed tracker if he has any results? I'm not really buying that you forgot a suspect either. You seem like the kind of player who might forget about those who you don't find all that scummy, but someone who drops the hammer way too early without waiting for a claim to be verified? Not quite sure how you forgot that.

It's how you asked and said nothing else, like you were anxious.

I already explained how I had stopped reading before Bio's shenanigans, and then I corrected myself.

[Col.Cathart]

I know it doesn't look good that Konowa's vote was on RC on D1, but I know he's town.

?

How?

---

Also, I'm totally against using any other JOAT ability from charter besides vig. Mostly because he only has cop ability left, and if charter is a lying scum, we're in really deep WIFOM crap unless we'll hit scum today. And that's another reason I'm still for charter lynch. Even if he really is a JOAT (I still think this claim is bogus. I have no reason to believe it), at least the next day will be on steady ground again, and it'll be back to normal scumhunting. Leaving him alive will leave us with just as much (or even more if he'll come up with say... guilty report) confusing stuff we have right now, and the only difference is we might (or might not, if we'll hit the scum with other lynch today) end up in LyLo, and I would rather not have the dilemma 'lying scum, or powerrole' in there.

[Col.Cathart]

Oh wait... I retract that question. I thought Bio was Nik's replacement...

[charter]

Ugh, this is so frustrating. I don't know how I can prove I'm a JOAT other than vig tonight. I can vig whoever, it'll be like a second lynch. This has the added benefit of everyone's input instead of my own.

Plus, how would I know there's no flavor in my role if I was lying? If I was scum bs'ing, I'd have made up some elaborate "Well, it talks about four flavors of oatmeal, all with special powers" or something like that, but I answered d3x's question like two minutes after he asked it! I know it's WIFOM, but frankly I've got nothing left, since I got tracked going to the dead guy.

[Locke Lamora]

Charter: I was eager to see if CC had anything good, sure. I guess I can see why you'd think scum might do it, though.

Entertaining the vig notion for the moment: we really need to have some thoughts about who the best vig target would be depending on each lynch. If we lynch scum again today then we probably don't need to worry as much, but if we lynch town then we need to have a clear plan in place for an appropriate likely scum target.

BH: you think charter would bus his roleblocker at that time? What makes his bus more likely than that of d3x, for example?

[d3x]

A thought I would like to offer up for discussion.

What if we No Lynch today and have charter investigate tonight instead of Vig? The Scum will be put in the position of either killing our confirmed Tracker or the '1-Shot Cop'. Assuming charter lives through the Night, we can test his claim with the lynch tomorrow.

I don't know the complete fallout of this plan, but I thought I'd put it out there to see if anyone can find any reasons why we shouldn't try this.

[charter]

I don't think that's a good idea. If we no lynch, I get killed, then there's six left, and it's MYLO and there's no room for error anymore.

[charter]

Just one scenario, but it's a pretty bad one. I dunno.

[Col.Cathart]

I don't think that's a good idea. If we no lynch, I get killed, then there's six left, and it's MYLO and there's no room for error anymore.

Or I get killed, and we have MyLo + charter with a report we're not sure we can trust, because we still don't know if he's joat or mafia. Even more fun. This is definitely bad idea.

[d3x]

Got it.

Ultimately then, we need to hit Scum either with a Lynch or Vig tonight to stay out of MyLo tomorrow. This is assuming a 3 man Mafia, of course.

With that in mind, I'm 100% against a Vig tonight. If we Mislynch today and charter 'misVigs' tonight, we lose unless there's a lucky protection PR out there still.

Regarding charter's no flavor claim, it definitely lends credit to him. From the way Hoopla responded in p229 I thought any false claims would've made up some flavor text and gotten busted for it.

[Col.Cathart]

Regarding charter's no flavor claim, it definitely lends credit to him. From the way Hoopla responded in p229 I thought any false claims would've made up some flavor text and gotten busted for it.

How can we be sure if mafia doesn't have any flavor as well? I mean, Vanilla Townie has a half sentence of flavor after all so it's not really a flavor-heavy game.

What bugs me about all of this is the fact that charter said he roleblocked Shotty when he could just as well say he vigged him, and scum coincidentally targeted him as well (even more, he could suggest someone protecting the real mafia target etc. etc.). I mean, vig ability is definitely more provable than roleblock. This definitely works toward charter's claim...

I'm not as convinced about charter's guilt as I was at the beginning of the day, though I still won't oppose his lynch or even unvote at the moment...

I wish we had something else to discuss. Half of the players barely spoke and then disappeared again... I need to re-read the topic sometimes later today or tomorrow...

[Locke Lamora]

Part of me is leaning towards believing charter but part of me can't stand the WIFOM possibilities for tomorrow if we let him live. I think d3x has a good point - any MyLo/LyLo arguments don't really hold weight as a reason in either direction. If we lynch charter and he's town, we're still likely to be in LyLo tomorrow. We need to just decide what we want to do today and not think about tomorrow. If we do hit town today then a town-charter will obviously need to think very carefully about if he even kills at all. If scum-charter has an additional kill then we better get it right today. If not, then we're guaranteed to make it to tomorrow anyway.

[d3x]

If scum-charter has an additional kill...

I

highly

doubt that Scum-charter would have an extra NK. If so, what would be the reason of waiting until N3 or beyond to use it? Why not just blast a few proTown players N1? Aside from that, one Mafia with 2NKs? I know that we agreed to try not to out guess the Mod, but that'd be

seriously

broken and this isn't a Bastard game.

[Locke Lamora]

So do I. I was just listing all the possible outcomes. However, if you think that one mafia with 2 NKs is broken, why isn't a town with an unlimited dayvig, an extra JOAT kill and a tracker?