Mini 922 - Mafia in Mo Town [Game Over]

[Espeonage]

I was never suspicious of Saka and therefore I haven't actually dropped anything.

[AlmasterGM]

Lowell: Promising to post and then not doing so since 2010.

[hitogoroshi]

Not liking Nikanor here. He's acting as if it's the foregone conclusion that he'll be lynched, when that's really not the case. I've noticed that scum often tend to go into "lost cause" mode much earlier than town, and I feel that may be his motivation.

While I don't see much 'lost cause mode' coming from Nikanor, I have noticed this pattern as well (that scum go 'woe is me' well before townies.)

And can I ask @ everyone (apart from Nikanor the psychic) why they've dropped all suspicion of Sakako in D2? Did I miss him doing something incredibly pro-Town or being cleared or something?

I've given my reasons why I read Sakako town, but to recap - I'm catching a lot of paranoia at lynching the wrong person (of the flavor I'd expect from a townie) and I think that his use of what basically amounts of Pascal's wager, while it wasn't really applicable in this situation, strikes me as townie (scum want mechanisms to guide them TOWARD a lynch so they can pass responsibly onto something other than themselves; not as a way to avoid mislynching).

I agree with AGM that it's awfully convenient that a case started rolling on Lowell, he posted once basicially ignoring every point made at him and then fell off the face of the earth.

[Lowell]

Lowell: Promising to post and then not doing so since 2010.

You wish, dude. I've been here for like f'ing forever.

But seriously... within two hours, bear with me.

[xRECKONERx]

Lowell's catch up post better be a fucking Pulitzer Prize winner.

[Lowell]

Rolling all the way back to page 19, when things start to heat up:

452- neto votes monkey to L-1, outlines case (almaster, almightybob, espeonage, sakako, xreckx, neto)
453- kyle votes lowell, fewer reasons, hints that monkey is a mislynch [-, trying to avoid the wagon?]
454- reck demands monkey claim
464- sakako takes a flier for the rest of the day [-, he wants to get the lynch done quick and is setting it up as monkey is inevitable]
471- monkey claims

JOAT

472- neto unvotes
473- reck unvotes (down to 4 votes)
474- neto votes kyle
475- "four abilities" post from reck
478- DRK votes neto (lynch -2)
479- good observation from neto about four abilities [+]
482- lowell votes monkey, supports same reasoning
489- nik votes neto, wants to give monkey a day
492- saka unvotes, really weird and wandering meta post [-, concludes lynching scum is good.... really?]
496- saka votes neto
501- saka confesses to having no clue [+, refreshing]
506- lowell points out the strangeness of monkey's delayed claim
515- almaster decrees the claim fake [+, true]
521- reck argues claim is fake, votes monkey [+]
527- neto votes monkey
549- FIBONACCI! (monkey leads w/ 5 votes)
566- lowell votes monkey, L-1, suspects reck
568- monkey claims

vanilla town

[terrible]
593- kyle hammers [+, gutsy]
603- monkey is

town

. DRK,

tracker

, dies
607- bob votes saka, laments bad townplay [-, easy does it]
608- reck foss hito for being useless
609- nik votes hito
615- reck mentions "three scum" [-, am I missing something?]
617- nika rolls with it, agrees there are three scum [--]
623- nika votes bob, keeps pressing LaL debate [-, don't care about this]
641- reck votes nik for "faux content"
642- kyle votes reck for hypocrisy around monkey hammer [+, good point, hadn't noticed]
645- almaster vote hito for, basically, lurking
646- hito votes lowell for jumping on claimed JOAT wagon [-, what?]
647- saka votes kyle for not explaining the hammer [-, not sure what saka wants here]
653- lowell votes saka for the kyle wagon
654- neto says he's going to vote lowell
655- neto votes lowell [-]
661- reck calls neto and lowell scum, votes lowell
684- nika votes neto
693- esp enters, calls out neto and lowell, votes neto [-, convenient]


Some scum players:

hito

- What folks mentioned about him at the end of yesterday was right. He avoided the monkey situation like the plague, which doesn't look good for him. Also, he opened the next day by questioning those who didn't believe the JOAT claim.

Even though the JOAT claim was a fakeclaim[/b]. He doesn't bother to explain why knowing (or being right about) the bogusness of monkey's claim translate to scumminess or non-scumminess. In fact hito's avoiding the situation entirely looks more scummy, and I'm not impressed by how he decided to jump on the wagon after the fact. It's opportunistic as hell to bring up the busted fake-claim and use it to smack people in a way that makes no sense.

almightybob

- This guy has made so little impression it hurts. Two things. First, post 607 bugs me. He doth protest too much. And he uses this "goddamn" post to mask a lazy vote on saka. If monkey's insanely improbably town flip doesn't give you anything else to go on, that's embarassing. Or scummy. Second, I don't like that the only time he's truly been engaged in anything has been the "LaL vs. not-LaL" debate. It's typically scummy to lurk, do not much, and then resurface and be "active" when a meta debate starts raging. This helps him be present without having to actually do much or offend anyone.

sakako

- His behavior at the end of yesterday was bad. 464 is bad, as he's trying to give himself an out for not changing his vote at all. This only makes sense if he thinks we're about to lynch town and he knows it. 492 is meta and pointless. Later, EVEN after the outed fake-claim by monkey, saka doesn't put his vote back? Why not? If monkey was good enough to lynch before he fake-claimed, why is it no good after? Again this looks like he knows what's coming. 647 is also bad. Not only is attacking the hammer vote opportunistic, it also isn't clear what saka wants. It's clear why most folks voted the way they did. Does he just want an apology. It might make sense to attack the hammer if the vote came out of left field or for a reason no one understands, but... in this case monkey fakeclaimed and admitted it, and there were more than enough potential hammer votes to go around.

Some town players:

almaster

- Just a vibe. But I like how he sniffed out the fakeness of the claim (like lowell did!) in 515.

kyle

- I see nothing wrong with the hammer, and the fact that he wasn't hemming and hawing is to his credit. He brings up an interesting point in 642 as well.

Other notes:

The 615, 617 sequence gives me pause a bit. Here,

reckoner

offhandedly mentions "all three scum." In 617,

nika

goes along, also referring casually to the three scum. It could be that they're both just guessing and three scum is pretty common, but I've certainly also seen games with two scum or four. But neither called the other on it, so either it's just accepted that there are three or they're both scum and both slipped.

Other players:

espeonage

needs to post more. He hasn't impressed, but I dont' have a particularly strong vibe on him one way or the other.

neto

is incredibly hard for me to read. I liked 459 (at the time), as well as his behavoir around the monkey wagon. But I get a bit of scummy vibe, and some of his moves look calculated and opportunistic.

Same goes for

nika

. The pointless meta-debate over LaL with bob (after the fact) was pointless, but generally he's been active and seems to be trying.

reck

looked very scummy yesterday with the "four powers" comment, but it seems that was a red herring and was what he said it was. If anything that clears him a little. His vote on nik is good, but his smarminess I can do without.

fos sakako
fos hito
unvote, vote almightybob

Of the three, bob deserves pressure the most. sakako and hito can't hide as well.

[Espeonage]

Honestly, I am behind. I have some time now to go back and have a good look see at the way things have been during my absence. My Neto vote was just the vibe I got from my quick skim seeing as I have no real certanties on people atm. I will come back with that in not too long. Hold on for maybe an hour or two and I will have my analysis started. I am going to try to do a file on each player so I'm just going to go in the order they are on OP so don't think that I am saying anything by the order I cover people. I shall be right back. They probably wont be too long but I will have a go at it.

[Espeonage]

Mod: OP needs to be updated coz I'm back

Thanks and done! ~KittyMod

[KittyMo]

Vote Count XIX

[3] Lowell - (hitogoroshi, Netopalis, xRECKONERx)

[2] Netopalis - (Nikanor, Espeonage)
[1] Sakako - (almightybob)
[1] xRECKONERx - (kyle99)
[1] hitogoroshi - (AlmasterGM)
[1] kyle99 - (Sakako)
[1] almightybob - (Lowell)

[0] AlmasterGM - ()
[0] Espeonage - ()
[0] Nikanor - ()

[0]

Not Voting

- ( )

With

10

alive, it's

6

to lynch!

Deadline is at Wednesday, March 10, 2010 at 8:00:00 AM (San Diego time).

Prod Checks

Sakako posted more than 24 hours ago and will be prodded if she doesn't post by the 14th hour of tomorrow.

kyle99 never picked up his prod after 96 hours! Searching for a replacement!

[KittyMo]

Yay! Zachrulez has agreed to replace kyle99! Please welcome him!

[Netopalis]

Hi, Zach. We seem to be seeing a lot of each other lately. Welcome!

[Zachrulez]

Unvote:

Now I go and read 29 pages.

Let me know if there's anything you need me to respond to right away.

[kyle99]

Ugh, sorry about getting replaced guys. I got kidney stones and I'm in the hospital. Was meaning to post saying I wasn't going to be here but didn't really have the opportunity. Have a good game guys.

Whoops. Sorry about your health issues. Hope everything goes well for you! ~Kitty

[xRECKONERx]

Zach, just give us your thoughts.

[AlmasterGM]

Lowell's post was pretty good. I am also interested to hear what Zach has to say.

Netopolis, meanwhile, has yet to do any scumhunting at all today. And, when I mentioned this before, his response was something like "I am responding to the attacks against me, what moar do you want." More scumhunting is what I want.

[Netopalis]

I think that the Hito/Bob argument seems to be between two pro-town players - it doesn't sound like either of them are scum to me. I also agree with Reckoner that we really can't call anyone scummy just because they were on the Monkey wagon - any active player, town or scum, would have and should have jumped on it. Nikanor...While he seems scummy, I've caught Scum-Nikanor, and he played much differently. Kyle does the whole "pop up once I'm attacked" thing again which gains him scum points in my eyes, although the hammer alone isn't enough for that given his past activity level. I'm going to do an iso-reread of Lowell - it may be nothing, but I think that there may be something there.

Analysis of Lowell:
(Post # refers to isolation post)
0) Random vote
1) Weak reasoning, but still early in the game.
2) Vague, unsubstantiated attacks
3-4) Decent post, but shows signs of active lurking since the post was made 2 days later than his previous one and has little additional content
5) Strange post altogether - the whole "I think scum would play as X" is a bit weak.
6) Weak reasoning for a vote given the lateness in the day
7) Decent post, better than most, but it really doesn't advocate any position.
8) "Yeah, it was my idea first..."
9) Attacks me because if Monkey flips town, I'm scum and if Monkey flips scum, I'm scum. Additionally, considers hammering Monkey before letting him claim - it seems as if he's setting himself up to look like a pro-town player when Monkey flips town.
10) Agreement, strange logic leading to a weak result.
14) "Yeah, I'd like to lynch somebody else, but I'm going to keep my vote over here because it looks townie"
17) Good posting about the Monkey wagon not necessarily being scummy
18) Attacking the easy target - the second-best target from the previous day.

Altogether, these posts show that Lowell is afraid to take a solid position and seems to be far too eager to be in the majority in any case.

Unvote, vote: Lowell

I posted this and nobody commented. I really have nothing to add since then.

[Nikanor]

Hi Zach!
I'm not going to comment on Lowell's post yet, except to ask him why he's not assuming three scum in a mini normal game. Lowell, you've played how many mini normals? If this game has anything other than three scum, I'm going to kill our mod.

While I don't see much 'lost cause mode' coming from Nikanor, I have noticed this pattern as well (that scum go 'woe is me' well before townies.)

What do you think of Neto's 689?

Reck, what do you think of Lowell's post? You seem to be really concerned about it, but then you post without even mentioning it! Considering you're voting the guy, I'd assume you would want to address anything and everything he has to say.
I'm going to waggle my finger at you for now, Reck. Next time, though, it's a vote. Watch your back!

I'm also shaking my head at the 'Neto is scummy, but I'm not going to vote him' attitude that seems to be going around. We sure do have a lot of scummy distancing going on now, mhmmm.
If AGM is scum with Neto I'm going to LOL.

[almightybob]

First half of Lowell's post is IIoA. We don't need to see all the working, just the highlights.

Regarding the second half - you see that bit where you summarised the case against Sakako? That's why I voted for him. How does it work that you claim it's scummy for me to attack him on that basis, but not for you to do the same?

[Lowell]

First half of Lowell's post is IIoA. We don't need to see all the working, just the highlights.

Regarding the second half - you see that bit where you summarised the case against Sakako? That's why I voted for him. How does it work that you claim it's scummy for me to attack him on that basis, but not for you to do the same?

The pbp is to help me organize my thoughts. Ignore it if you like.

My problem with your vote isn't that it's on sakako, it's the lazy way it was done. I for one found monkey's actions bizarre. To wake up D2 and not have anything new from that is strange. It makes me think you weren't surprised by the result.

[xRECKONERx]

Yeah, the first half didn't impress me at all.

The second half seemed like attempts to join already-viable wagons. The reasoning/analysis behind the players is decent for the first three, but I'm not liking the end of the second half. He basically throws town reads towards kyle and AGM for nothing more than 'gut'. Somehow, kyle's hammer makes him town. I don't get it. Then the rest of the players in the game are all just really ambiguous reads.

My vote stays.

[Nikanor]

I like how Reck waits until bob says something about Lowell's post, follows that, and then doesn't even address what I've said about him at all.
I said you'd get my vote, but I'll wait until after we lynch Neto. You're both scum, so it doesn't really matter the order in which we lynch you.

Somehow, kyle's hammer makes him town. I don't get it.

I do. I get town vibes from it. His 'what the fuck' when he's throwing down the hammer smells like an uninformed majority.

[xRECKONERx]

I would link to an ongoing game where I, as scum, literally did the EXACT same thing (going "What the hell." and hammering) and playing it off as "I didn't know blah blah blah wanted to find out blah blah blah no other wagon was happening blah blah blah". But, I can't link to it. Note: I got lynched as scum the day after pulling that stunt. Huh. Funny, isn't it?

[AlmasterGM]

I posted this and nobody commented. I really have nothing to add since then.

lolwut.

Unvote. Vote: Netopalis

[Nikanor]

Why are you ignoring me, Reckoner?

[Nikanor]

(going "What the hell." and hammering)

Is it, 'What the hell, why not?' or 'Well what the hell was that?'