Open 205 - Medical Mafia - Game Over Too Soon?

[Mindgamer]

Hi Phaen! Vote DiscoRoboto in the next 24 hours and this delicious bar of chocolate could be yours!



On to more serious matters: SaintKerrigan's voting pattern.

ISO 2 - Vote: Looker.
ISO 9 - Unvote: Looker. Vote: XScorpion.
ISO 13 - Unvote: XScorpion. Vote: Light.
ISO 14 - FoS: Kyle99.
ISO 24 - Unvote: Light. Vote: Looker.
ISO 27 - Unvote: Looker. Vote: Kyle99.
ISO 28 - Unvote: Kyle99. Vote: XScorpion.
ISO 34 - FoS: Kyle99.
ISO 34 - Unvote: XScorpion. Vote: Light.
ISO 39 - Unvote: Light. Vote: XScorpion.
ISO 40 - FoS: DiscoRoboto.
ISO 42 - FoS (again): DiscoRoboto.
ISO 44 - Unvote: XScorpion. Vote: Kyle99.
ISO 47 - Unvote: Kyle99. Vote: Biohazard.

It seems like SaintKerrigan likes to hop hop hop his vote for little to no reason. However, he never votes for DiscoRoboto despite FoS'ing him. Interesting, one would assume there are more than enough reasons to hop hop hop to DiscoRoboto a few times. Why not? Is it perhaps because you don't want to vote your scumbuddy?
Also, take a look at how SaintKerrigan adds (again) to his FoS in ISO 42. He voted multiple players twice (XScorpion even thrice) but never added something like that, even though a vote is way more important than a FoS.

Scum?

Vote Count #15

Light (2) - DiscoRoboto, Phaen
DiscoRoboto (2) - Mindgamer, mykonian
XScorpion (1) - Bio Hazard
Looker (1) - XScorpion
Mindgamer (1) - Looker
Bio Hazard (1) - SaintKerrigan

Not Voting (1) - Light

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

[DiscoRoboto]

Remember that StK had a gut town read on me (like most people) before I got put into the center of attention, I think he's still clinging on to that.

[SaintKerrigan]

It seems like SaintKerrigan likes to hop hop hop his vote for little to no reason. However, he never votes for DiscoRoboto despite FoS'ing him. Interesting, one would assume there are more than enough reasons to hop hop hop to DiscoRoboto a few times. Why not? Is it perhaps because you don't want to vote your scumbuddy?
Also, take a look at how SaintKerrigan adds (again) to his FoS in ISO 42. He voted multiple players twice (XScorpion even thrice) but never added something like that, even though a vote is way more important than a FoS.

I'm not voting Disco right now because there's more people to look at than just him. I've also had a town read on him for most of this game (that's slowly starting to come apart) and generally I don't vote my town reads. You'll notice that I haven't voted for you or Mykonian, either. Does that mean I'm scum with you or Myko? No.

This reads like a bad post from Mindgamer. I don't know if I'd call it scummy, though.

[Phaen]

Mod: What order do deaths happen at night?

Ex: If Quack targets CPR who targets Scum,
a) Do both the CPR and the Scum die?
b) Does only the CPR die?

[SaintKerrigan]

Mod: What order do deaths happen at night?

Ex: If Quack targets CPR who targets Scum,
a) Do both the CPR and the Scum die?
b) Does only the CPR die?

I hope this is a prelude to a catch-up post...

[mykonian]

Remember that StK had a gut town read on me (like most people) before I got put into the center of attention, I think he's still clinging on to that.

I think somebody is a little eager to defend.

[mykonian]

I'm not voting Disco right now because there's more people to look at than just him. I've also had a town read on him for most of this game (that's slowly starting to come apart) and generally I don't vote my town reads. You'll notice that I haven't voted for you or Mykonian, either. Does that mean I'm scum with you or Myko? No.

You have FoS'ed him twice. Non of these reasons disappeared. And out of nothing you vote Bio. For tbh, no real reason. Sooooo why aren't you voting for a well reasoned case that you obviously can see, seen the FoS's?

[SaintKerrigan]

I'm not voting Disco right now because there's more people to look at than just him. I've also had a town read on him for most of this game (that's slowly starting to come apart) and generally I don't vote my town reads. You'll notice that I haven't voted for you or Mykonian, either. Does that mean I'm scum with you or Myko? No.

You have FoS'ed him twice. Non of these reasons disappeared. And out of nothing you vote Bio. For tbh, no real reason. Sooooo why aren't you voting for a well reasoned case that you obviously can see, seen the FoS's?

Because there is more than one scum. There's no need for me to be locked onto one suspect when I can sniff around for others. Disco's not going to escape anyone's attention. So, I thought I'd do a little scumhunting.

[mykonian]

yeah...

Buuuut wouldn't scumhunting be much more effective if we had the information of a (good) first lynch? You are "scumhunting", which is quite ineffective tbh, and that same time could be used to get a constructive lynch on Disco. With that lynch, we would have a good chance of finding scum, we would have more information to work on later and 1 vote on bio isn't doing anything anyway. Further, I don't see bio getting as scummy as disco before the end of the day.

Can we get some action in this game? Arg, forgot about Phaen. ok, after he has reread etc?

[SaintKerrigan]

Why are you so gung-ho on having me vote Disco right this instant, Myko? There's time before the day ends.

[mykonian]

Why are you so gung-ho on having me vote Disco right this instant, Myko? There's time before the day ends.

Because I'm either going to lurk through the day's towards the deadline, or I'm going to fill the thread with more nonsense towards the deadline. Either way, other players will have more problems with the game because the game starts to become a mess with enough players already confirming that Disco is scummy, but doing nothing because the deadline isn't yet here.

So yeah, there is time before the day ends. And we are going to try to use that time to kill the game. To attack someone who is quite clearly town (bio) because we pretend to be scumhunting.

Or you can say it another way: I'm getting bored.

And for the people who are now going to say: LONGER DAYS = MORE INFORMATION, I would like to see information from you. Otherwise you are just talking about something you have heard, but you have no idea if it is true or not.

Now, phena, where is your catchup post?

[SaintKerrigan]

How is Bio "quite clearly town?"

[Bio Hazard]

It seems like SaintKerrigan likes to hop hop hop his vote for little to no reason. However, he never votes for DiscoRoboto despite FoS'ing him. Interesting, one would assume there are more than enough reasons to hop hop hop to DiscoRoboto a few times. Why not? Is it perhaps because you don't want to vote your scumbuddy?
Also, take a look at how SaintKerrigan adds (again) to his FoS in ISO 42. He voted multiple players twice (XScorpion even thrice) but never added something like that, even though a vote is way more important than a FoS.

I'm not voting Disco right now because there's more people to look at than just him. I've also had a town read on him for most of this game (that's slowly starting to come apart) and generally I don't vote my town reads. You'll notice that I haven't voted for you or Mykonian, either. Does that mean I'm scum with you or Myko? No.

This reads like a bad post from Mindgamer. I don't know if I'd call it scummy, though.

Why is it a bad post from Mindgamer? I think he made some valid points.
You might not have voted MG or myko, but you also never fos'ed them.

Remember that StK had a gut town read on me (like most people) before I got put into the center of attention, I think he's still clinging on to that.

What was the purpose of this post?

More to come soon...

[SaintKerrigan]

Why is it a bad post from Mindgamer? I think he made some valid points.

Because his sole reason for thinking I'm scum is based on the idea that I FoS'ed Disco but never voted him.

You might not have voted MG or myko, but you also never fos'ed them.

Because they haven't done things yet that I consider worthy of a FoS. Disco has.

[Phaen]

Mod: What order do deaths happen at night?

Ex: If Quack targets CPR who targets Scum,
a) Do both the CPR and the Scum die?
b) Does only the CPR die?

I hope this is a prelude to a catch-up post...

Yeah I was reading the first couple pages and I started to go off on a tangent trying to figure out the possible outcomes of mykonian's plan.

:arrow: If we mislynch today the circle plan is horrible

Worst Case Scenario

4 deaths at night, bringing us to 2 doc vs 2 mafia D2 (loss).
This has a 9.3% chance of happening unless I calculated things wrong.
1 NK from scum (1 in 1 chance because they know who's unprotected)
1 weak doctor might die (2 in 7 chance)
2 doctor deaths from CPR and quack (4 in 7 chance) (4 in 7 chance)

Most likely

2-3 doctors die and 0 scum (~60% chance). D2 is 3-4 doctors vs 2 scum. So basically lylo.

If we're lucky

2-3 doctors die and 1 scum (~30% chance). D2 is 3-4 doctors vs 1 scum.

Best Case Scenario

both the CPR and Quack both hit different mafia. Automatic win for us!
Too bad the chances of this happening are like 1% though, perhaps even less.

:arrow: If we lynch scum today, the plan isn't bad.

Worst Case Scenario

still 4 deaths, but it would leave us with 3 docs vs. 1 mafia.
It would also leave us with enough information to narrow down the scum.
Example: one possible scenario (strikethru = death)
A ->

B

-> C -> D ->

E

->

F

-> G ->

H

This tells us several things. One of the dead are a weak doctor and only one mafia exists, so D is cleared because C didn't die. A and G are more likely to be scum than C because scum is more likely to want to NK the target they know is unprotected (as X mentioned on page Y). We know C isn't a CPR or quack because D didn't die.

It's not an ideal situation, but as a worst case scenario, this really isn't that bad.

Most likely

2-3 doctors and 0 scum will die (~60% chance). D2 will be 4-5 doc vs. 1 mafia.

Best Case Scenario

either the CPR or the Quack hits the final mafia. Automatic win! (~30% chance)

Based on the above, I think we definitely should

not

use this plan tonight if we lynch the wrong person today. However, if we lynch right today, this plan might be worth the risk. With only one mafia left, the vigs could have a pretty good chance of winning the game for town overnight.

[SaintKerrigan]

Wait, why were you wasting time trying to analyze Mykonian's plan? That everyone else had already agreed not to use?

[Phaen]

Its not a waste of time. I'm not familiar with the setup so when I heard his plan and I heard everyone saying it wouldn't work, it made me wanna whip out a calculator to see if its really as bad as people are saying. How is it a bad thing to analyze it?

[Phaen]

P.S. sorry I'm so slow. I'm not done reading yet. I'm on pg. 4

I don't like the early mykonian bandwagon.
The speed at which it happened makes me think its fueled by scum.

Mindgamer seems like he has tunnel vision, focusing solely on mykonian.
I don't like mykonian's reason for voting Mindgamer in post #81. Sarcasticaly scum claiming isn't really a tell.
Looker is a little erratic, but he's not being scummy.
Light is only making short posts that don't analyze any players and I find that scummy.

[Bio Hazard]

How is it a bad thing to analyze it?

This.
But the reason I thought it was a bad plan was because it might be giving the scum a good idea of who to kill.

@SK: I know you said this before, but could you please summarize (in 1 sentence) why you're voting me?

Because his sole reason for thinking I'm scum is based on the idea that I FoS'ed Disco but never voted him.

I actually think that's a good reason. In this game, it's not optimal for scum to bus since doing so would put the one scum against five doctors, one vanilla, and one nurse. That leaves the FoS as the primary way for scum to distance themselves from each other.

Because they haven't done things yet that I consider worthy of a FoS. Disco has.

I was pointing out that this is a false analogy:

You'll notice that I haven't voted for you or Mykonian, either. Does that mean I'm scum with you or Myko? No.

Revisiting disco's last post...

Remember that StK had a gut town read on me (like most people) before I got put into the center of attention, I think he's still clinging on to that.

I don't get this post. This looks to me like disco is prompting SK to come to his defense. I wouldn't have really thought much of this post, though, if SK didn't do exactly that in the following post:

I'm not voting Disco right now because there's more people to look at than just him.

I've also had a town read on him for most of this game (that's slowly starting to come apart) and generally I don't vote my town reads.

You'll notice that I haven't voted for you or Mykonian, either. Does that mean I'm scum with you or Myko? No.

This reads like a bad post from Mindgamer. I don't know if I'd call it scummy, though.

I know you qualified the whole message with "that's slowly starting to come apart," but you still backed up disco's previous post.

Also, I think you can be "looking" at people other than who you're voting for.

[Bio Hazard]

I don't like the early mykonian bandwagon.
The speed at which it happened makes me think its fueled by scum.

I agree.

Because of:
1. The early jump onto the myko wagon
2. Having a vote on Light while asking for a kyle lynch
3. His reaction to SK taking his vote off of Light
4. His most recent post and interaction with SK

Unvote
Vote: DiscoRoboto

[Looker]

If only Logic was as clear-cut as we try to make it out to be...

---

I'm not voting Disco right now because there's more people to look at than just him. I've also had a town read on him for most of this game (that's slowly starting to come apart) and generally I don't vote my town reads. You'll notice that I haven't voted for you or Mykonian, either. Does that mean I'm scum with you or Myko? No.

You have FoS'ed him twice. Non of these reasons disappeared. And out of nothing you vote Bio. For tbh, no real reason. Sooooo why aren't you voting for a well reasoned case that you obviously can see, seen the FoS's?

Because there is more than one scum. There's no need for me to be locked onto one suspect when I can sniff around for others. Disco's not going to escape anyone's attention. So, I thought I'd do a little scumhunting.

sniff sniff

unvote
vote StKerrigan

sniff sniff

Why are you so gung-ho on having me vote Disco right this instant, Myko? There's time before the day ends.

[impressive movie voice]

STALL 101!

[/voice]

Wait, why were you wasting time trying to analyze Mykonian's plan? That everyone else had already agreed not to use?

Let him does what he does.

---

@Light: You're gonna die, man. You're gonna die.

MOD: Does Kyle's vote for Light roll over to Phaen?

[Alduskkel]

Mod: What order do deaths happen at night?

Ex: If Quack targets CPR who targets Scum,
a) Do both the CPR and the Scum die?
b) Does only the CPR die?

All deaths happen simultaneously. If say, the Quack and a Scum target each other (and no protections or roleblocks occur) then both die.

MOD: Does Kyle's vote for Light roll over to Phaen?

Why wouldn't it?

Light's V/LA is acknowledged.

[kyle99]

Ugh, sorry about getting replaced guys. I got kidney stones and I'm in the hospital. Was meaning to post saying I wasn't going to be here but didn't really have the opportunity. Have a good game guys.

[Bio Hazard]

Hope you get well soon.

[Looker]

Kyle is town - ULTRAtown.