Mini 911 - Mike's Pizzeria Mafia (Game Over)

[evilsnail]

I said IK looked scummier in the spat with Shiv, not that he looked scummier on the whole. I voted Shiv near the deadline both to get a lynch and because he was one of my main candidates for scum throughout the game.

On IK: I've basically grown increasingly suspicious of Idiotking throughout the game, on the basis of a consistent pattern of aggressive voting without good content. But, after his response to my FOS, which seemed sincere, I've started to think this is a matter of playstyle. Near the end of Day 2, I probably would have supported an IK lynch, though there were better candidates. I don't now.

[DeathRowKitty]

Fair enough.

This may seem odd, but evilsnail's actions make a lot more sense to me now. Still some issues with the whole "reasonable" vs. "pro-town" thing, but I'm a lot less suspicious of him now than I was day 2.

[Seven]

I realize I have posted almost nothing since the beginning of D3, I'm still going through everything. Hopefully I'll have something by tonight-ish.

[Thor665]

I agree with no lynch. Roles that would make no lynch suboptimal are rare enough that I don't think we need to consider them in a mini normal.

What about what a no lynch would do to the scum's ability to control the vote? I already am cautious about wanting to put a vote out because of how much pull they'd have on it and it seems like tomorrow the situation would simply be exacerbated.

[Jack]

vote:Parama

I will probably have to write up more of a case if I want people to go for it.

I don't see the point in no lynching though, with the cop dead. Roles like watcher, tracker, roleblocker...the mafia can just not kill and they are useless.

[DeathRowKitty]

What about what a no lynch would do to the scum's ability to control the vote? I already am cautious about wanting to put a vote out because of how much pull they'd have on it and it seems like tomorrow the situation would simply be exacerbated.

The difference between mylo and lylo with respect to what you said is that scum need one less townie to vote the wrong person in lylo. This can easily be avoided if players are careful with their votes.

The practical difference between mylo and lylo is that there's one less possible mislynch that can be made, one more night of possible night actions (though I doubt we have much more than sane cop+bodyguard), and one less townie needed to vote off scum.

No lynch is clearly optimal.

[Thor665]

I don't see the point in no lynching though, with the cop dead. Roles like watcher, tracker, roleblocker...the mafia can just not kill and they are useless.

Though of course if we no lynch and scum doesn't kill that sort of leaves us in an eternal stalemate. I would be really surprised if scum passed up their NK opportunities.

Do I take it by your comment here and the vote for Parama that you disagree about the no lynch idea?

[quote='DRK"]I'm still sold firmly on IK-town. I might look back at people who have expressed suspicion of IK. I've been scum against IK-town, so I know pretty much what to watch for. Basically, I want to see who targetted him based on playstyle. [/quote]
I'm being a little slow today (sorry, my other game had the final showdown in mylo and now we are in post so I've been, at best, cursory here the last few days) but I want to ask about this.

To the best of my recollection the biggest anti-IK playstyle guy was Shiv - the now proven cop. Do you really feel negativity towards playstyles can be a scumtell? If you do; how do you justify that with considering IK town and his stated stance on Shiv for Shiv's playstlye?

[Thor665]

Feh, failed quote tags by dint of failure to depress the shift key enough. I think it's fairly clear but will repost it for those who like seperate glowing white boxes.

I'm still sold firmly on IK-town. I might look back at people who have expressed suspicion of IK. I've been scum against IK-town, so I know pretty much what to watch for. Basically, I want to see who targetted him based on playstyle.

I'm being a little slow today (sorry, my other game had the final showdown in mylo and now we are in post so I've been, at best, cursory here the last few days) but I want to ask about this.

To the best of my recollection the biggest anti-IK playstyle guy was Shiv - the now proven cop. Do you really feel negativity towards playstyles can be a scumtell? If you do; how do you justify that with considering IK town and his stated stance on Shiv for Shiv's playstlye?

[Seven]

@Jack: I would like to see your case on Par.

I've been doing some ISOs and it's slowly killing me. I really can't read so much text, guys. I just got through Parama's 10,000 word Mastin posts and I can honestly say I understand why walls of text suck (but cannot guarantee I will stop doing them). I started taking notes on him, and ended up basically quoting examples of the same things over and over and over again... Contradictions, Disclaimers, but most of all failing to take a solid stance on anyone. I mean if you go through D1 and D2 it's just ridiculous the amount of "Player X did this which could be scummy but also could be town" you'll find. I've kept my notes but I stopped pretty much around iso 30 because there was already a massive amount of quoting going on. I'll give you a list of iso #s for now, if it's too vague and you want the actual quotes I'll gladly provide.

6, 5, 7, 18, 14, 11, 20, 22

Anyway I'd like to see what Jack has on Par right now. I'm not done going through everyone yet and my brain is too tired to make sense of anything so I'm going to stop here, but I'll try and finish everything by tomorrow-ish.

[DeathRowKitty]

I'm still sold firmly on IK-town. I might look back at people who have expressed suspicion of IK. I've been scum against IK-town, so I know pretty much what to watch for. Basically, I want to see who targetted him based on playstyle.

I'm being a little slow today (sorry, my other game had the final showdown in mylo and now we are in post so I've been, at best, cursory here the last few days) but I want to ask about this.

To the best of my recollection the biggest anti-IK playstyle guy was Shiv - the now proven cop. Do you really feel negativity towards playstyles can be a scumtell? If you do; how do you justify that with considering IK town and his stated stance on Shiv for Shiv's playstlye?

That's not quite what I was referring to. Shiv didn't like IK's playstyle, but he didn't find IK scummy over playstyle. What I was referring to is people who attack IK over things that are obviously just part of his playstyle. It's what I'd do as scum if I needed an easy target. It's what I did when I was scum against him.

I'm being really lazy and didn't reread. I guess I'll do that during night (assuming we no lynch).

[DeathRowKitty]

Quote fail >.<

Fixed.

[Thor665]

Let's see if I can get the quote correct first time out.

That's not quite what I was referring to. Shiv didn't like IK's playstyle, but he didn't find IK scummy over playstyle. What I was referring to is people who attack IK over things that are obviously just part of his playstyle. It's what I'd do as scum if I needed an easy target. It's what I did when I was scum against him.

But what about the second part of my question; IK's attack upon Shiverer?

His primary 4 points included whether or not Shiv had read the thread and that Shiv supported gut reads over logical determination. Both of those are, to my mind, clearly playstyle issues rather then scum issues and since your new stated concept of how to find scum is 'those who attack IK for his playstyle' I was curious about your stance on IK when he did such attacks.

@Jack - I'd like to see your reasoning for why we shouldn't no lynch, since clearly we have some split opinions in that regard.

[Parama]

I just realized I'm a tard and never posted the fact that I was V/LA all weekend in thread due to being sick though I PMed the mods of all the games I was still in. Derp. Mod can confirm this if you really care that much. Will try to catch up soon, but note that

I will be V/LA Tuesday through Friday

as well. Ugh, this is just a terrible time of the year for me

[Idiotking]

Vote Parama

FOS DRK

Mostly because I forgot to earlier.

[DeathRowKitty]

@IK
Assuming you and Jack are town, if Parama is town, you likely just threw the game for us.

@Thor
Town-IK is very principled. Null tell at worst for him. The reason I mentioned IK specifically is because his play is often anti-town, which makes him an easy scum target.

---

Seriously guys, we should be no lynching. Also, STOP THROWING VOTES AROUND

Vote: No Lynch

[Idiotking]

@IK
Assuming you and Jack are town, if Parama is town, you likely just threw the game for us.

Well yeah, this is true for any two townies who vote for a third townie in this big of a game.

But think about it. This requires that 1. I am town, 2. Jack is town, and 3. Parama is town. Three variables.

Let's make a list of possibilities, where IK = me, JK = Jack, PA = Parama, T = Town, and S = Not Town.



IK: T, JK: T, PA: T
Scum can quicklynch, town loses.

IK: S, JK: T, PA: T
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch.

IK: S, JK: S, PA: T
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch.

IK: T, JK: S, PA: T
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch.

IK: S, JK: T, PA: S
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch, and I am retarded.

IK: T, JK: S, PA: S
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch, and Jack is retarded.

IK: S, JK: S, PA:: S
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch, and both Jack and I are retarded.

IK: T, JK: T, PA: S
Town kills a third-party or scum.



Out of that list of possibilities, only one presents an immediate danger of a quick-lynch. Congratulations on fear-mongering.

[DeathRowKitty]

IK: T, JK: T, PA: T
Scum can quicklynch, town loses.

IK: S, JK: T, PA: T
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch.

IK: S, JK: S, PA: T
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch.

IK: T, JK: S, PA: T
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch.

IK: S, JK: T, PA: S
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch, and I am retarded.

IK: T, JK: S, PA: S
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch, and Jack is retarded.

IK: S, JK: S, PA:: S
Scum probably lack the numbers to quicklynch, and both Jack and I are retarded.

IK: T, JK: T, PA: S
Town kills a third-party or scum.

Adjusted for the fact that I think you're town. Not quite as bad.

If we no lynch, Parama will be here tomorrow (your votes guaranteed that). Is there any reason to no lynch besides the unlikely situation of an extra scum kill?

[Parama]

I would like to see cases against me. Not even going to bother responding to the votes otherwise. Yep.

[Parama]

On that note, Jack hasn't posted anything since his vote on me 2 days ago.
Evilsnail needs to be prodded.

[Seven]

I don't understand IKs 915. I'm just going to go with the flow on this one... if everyone is voting a no-lynch I'll follow, if not I'll put my vote on someone.

[Dragonfly13]

Votecount #21

Parama (2) - Jack, Idiotking
No Lynch (1) - DeathRowKitty

Not Voting (5) - Thor665, Lastsurvivor, Seven, evilsnail, Parama

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Deadline: 11:00PM U.S. Central Time, Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Sorry it's taking so long to replace Lastsurvivor. I suppose I'm being a little more lax on prodding people due to how difficult it is to find replacements right now. I will probably have a replacement within the next couple of days. At that time I will increase the deadline.

In other news, evilsnail has been prodded.

[Idiotking]

Is there any reason to no lynch

Never a good one.

[Jack]

If we know lynch, the mafia are just going to either not kill or kill someone who isn't suspicious. Without the cop we don't have much to hurt them with.

If we lynch scum, and stop a kill somehow, then we won't be in lylo anymore.

I don't understand IKs 915. I'm just going to go with the flow on this one... if everyone is voting a no-lynch I'll follow, if not I'll put my vote on someone.

Scummy.

****

I'll write more when I have time.

[Thor665]

I've got to say as far as the no lynch situation goes I'm still leaning lynch today. I think Jack really hit the nail on the head for me - yeah, lynch today is a 3/8 chance to hit scum while a lynch tomorrow is a 3/7 but really that percentage gain does tend to require scum to kill someone who would actually be likely to be lynched.

Since scum are not likely to help us out by lynching one of the scummier players then we'll still be picking from the same pool of possible lynch targets as today, which means no actual change in the percentage chance of us lynching scum today as opposed to tomorrow. Also, as a plus, we'll be in a situation where scum don't just need just one town to vote wrong for them to get a win - they need two town to agree on a wrong vote today.

@DRK - I'd say either present a refutation of that logic or plan to actually present your promised reread today as opposed to tomorrow.

@Seven - I noticed you did some ISO work that really just amounted to a Parama ISO - is he your current top suspect or simply the first of a planned PBP of each player?

[Idiotking]

I don't understand IKs 915.

What about it do you not understand? I was showing that DRK's statement had about a 1/8th chance of occurring, taking in all possible combinations of alignment. This was using the pure statistics that his pro-no-lynch arguments seem to rely on.