Mini 916 ~ Brrr Mafia. GAME OVER

[Wacky]

I wonder if I've been unclear:

Fortunately I have time to write a wall today.

Theories on Night 1:

1. Cross Kill A (scum kills regfan, Jasper as Vig kills regfan):

I'm ambivalent about the cross-kill theory. That's maybe why people are reading it both ways. Flavour-wise, the multiple gunshots could (or might not) hint at a cross kill. That one point just eats at me and I was ready to unvote Jasper at some point, but everything else is against him for the most part.

I just don't find Jasper killing Regfan as town very plausible, because
1. Jasper's reason for suspicion are totally flimsy,

He still hasn't said any reason for killing regfan other than OMGUS

.
2. It's night 1, would you use your only kill on night 1?
3. Speed bandwagon on Seven actually works against him.

Which leads to -

2. Cross Kill B (scum kills regfan, Jasper as SK kills regfan):

That works, actually. SK wouldn't need to worry about vig kill because there's less chance of there being one.

3. Blocked kill (Scum kill fails <i.e. they targeted me>, Jasper as Vig kills Regfan)

Buried in a snowman as flavour sounds distinctly anti-town, but I can't say I can rule it out. I haven't received any PMs to the effect of "someone tried to kill you last night", but I don't expect to.

The whole "did you target him?" thing

... was just a bad idea in retrospect. I was annoyed at DTM's whole lying thing and turning out to be town and just wanted to try something random.

I am NOT a tracker, and fakeclaiming a tracker would be epitome of stupidity if I was mafia since I would have to guess who people targeted,

especially

and my kill was blocked last night.

What's more, I already explained it here -

Posted Wed Feb 17, 2010 12:52 am

About Wacky... I was curious about the "have you targeted regfan" too..

Wacky, care to explain?»

I was bluffing. I don't think there's any real reason for a pro-town role to have been targeting regfan, so the risk of outing a pro-town power role is low, while scum might actually answer truthfully because I might be a tracker. I dub this Wacky's gambit! It didn't work.

I just wanted to see if I could entrap scum this way. After all, it's a simple yes or no question and I couldn't see why a pro-town player would target regfan except a doc (in which case, he wouldn't be dead)

....then jasper goes and says he killed him. Gah.

... and then it ends up drawing this claim: Double. gah.

Zachrulz as Jailkeeper

I've considered you to be pretty suspicious today because your behaviour just seemed odd, but claiming jailbreaker would be a very daring fakeclaim for scum so that takes you off the list:

I'm guessing since you claimed, you're quite suspicious of me right now. Are you looking for me to claim at this stage?

TL;DR The List:

Scummy:

Jasper (I'm not sure if I buy it after all)
McZombie (...)
jbernier93 (active lurking, tends to go with the flow too much. )


Neutral:
camn Echo (Getting more suspicious now due to role in the Seven wagon if Seven is town, and I'm getting town vibes from Seven)
Nikanor
The1fifi (claimed cop. No counterclaims. Would be very suspicious otherwise)


Towny:

Seven (not getting scummy vibes)
jasonT1981 inverno (obv town?)
Zachrulez Neon_Appliances (claimed doc, no counterclaims)


Links:

Jasper <-> The1fifi (could be scum team together, playing a crazy gambit)
Camn <-> Jasper

Dislinks:

Camn <-> McZombie (post just now)
Camn <-> Seven

Afterword

Hm. With this new information and Jasper's recent actions... I feel like the right thing to do is to

vote: jasper

.
Basically I feel like the current combination of claims and posts from Wacky, Fifi, Jasper, and Zach makes this the optimal move. I know this sounds like crap, but if I say anymore I worry that I would be helping the scum more than the town.

I'm inclined to agree with you on the information content, except although Jasper is relatively scummy, I can't say for sure Jasper is scum and if he isn't then I can see things ending badly.

But I guess I'll just have to play the odds and hope Jasper is scum.

Confirm Vote: Jasper

@Jasper: ... say something.
@Camn: Please elaborate on Jason as scum, and Nikanor as scum.
Also, with "If Jasper = town, then Wacky-scum's kill was not blocked. " - please elaborate, since Zachrulez has just claimed jailkeeper and blocking me.

@Zachrulez: Are you looking for a claim from me, and since if you're telling the truth (and you probably are) the chance of you dying tonight is high, could you just quickly sum up what you think of everyone?

[The1fifi]

Hmm.

Given this is the truth, Zach, and given Sotty7 is precise with his flavor, it seems that a crosskill would be flavor-consistent.. and a blocked kill inconsistent.

Hmm.

Lets lynch the Zombie. I hate replacements.

still reading through, but i need to answer this..


Altough i find mcz scummy, i don't wanna go for a lynch whose flip wont give us any info relating this recent events.

Are you tryin to mislead us?

[The1fifi]

I am exploring WACKY right now, Seven. Please.

Given Jasper killed Regfan...
If Jasper = scum, then Wacky-scum's kill was not blocked.
If Jasper = town, then Wacky-scum's kill was not blocked.

You unnastan?

Yes, thats why lynching jasper is the best today. it will give us a load of info.

[The1fifi]

.

3. Blocked kill (Scum kill fails <i.e. they targeted me>, Jasper as Vig kills Regfan)

Buried in a snowman as flavour sounds distinctly anti-town, but I can't say I can rule it out.

I liked wacky's last post, seems pretty townish and makes good points.

but this quote part.. once again we are just going with the flavour thing.

[Sotty7]

13th Vote count of day two

Jasper 4: (Wacky, Seven, jbernier93, The1fifi)

Seven 1: (Jasper)

Not Voting 5:

McZombie, jasonT1981, Nikanor, Zachrulez, Camn

-With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch
-Deadline is 3/8 @ 8am CST

[camn]

@Camn: Please elaborate on Jason as scum, and Nikanor as scum.
Also, with "If Jasper = town, then Wacky-scum's kill was not blocked. " - please elaborate, since Zachrulez has just claimed jailkeeper and blocking me.

See post 595.
You can't have the flavor and ignore the flavor. If you are calling "buried in a snowman" anti-town.. then you must accept "multiple gunshots", no?

[Jasper]

It wasn't just an OMGUS kill. He never voted me, he just said I was scummy. I was reading his stuff in night one and there was something I didn't like and I shot him.

Wacky, I doubt there is anything I can say to you to get you to think I am town... you are so deadset on killing me.

So, I guess if it will help you guys learn so much more... go ahead and lynch me. But I am what I claim to be. A one-shot vig. I fucked up and shot the wrong person. So it looks like that will get me killed.

Some of the same people who said they believed me town (jbernier, Fifi) are now voting me.

So... I can't think of anything else to use to defend myself. I have tried and they still want my death. So... let them have it.

But I won't do it myself.

[Zachrulez]

Who's scum Jasper?

[Jasper]

Who's scum Jasper?

My top 2 suspects are Wacky and Seven.

[Seven]

Jasper I've told you what you can do and you haven't done it. You're either not trying or you have nothing to say which makes me think my vote is in the right place.

[Zachrulez]

Jasper, why do you think Wacky is scum?

If you think seven is scum, why did you post this to him?

Well, I made my claim... I have a bunch of people, including you, believing me. I may not have done what everyone else would have done as a vig, but I own my action and I admit I was wrong.

@Seven - What do I need to do to prove I am town?

The interaction with Seven looks off because the tone of your post appears to be addressing someone you believe/know to be town. (And you're voting for him and claim you think he's scum.)

[camn]

The interaction with Seven looks off because the tone of your post appears to be addressing someone you believe/know to be town. (And you're voting for him and claim you think he's scum.)

QFT

[Zachrulez]

I will respond fully to Wacky's 600 later, as I'm pretty busy and stressed out at work.

But as to the question of wanting you to claim... if you're asking and willing, my answer is don't claim.

[jasonT1981]

Wackys 600 was quite a good post, analyzing quite alot of scanarios etc and was very insightful to me but I do have this to ask,

Jasper <-> The1fifi (could be scum team together, playing a crazy gambit)

How likely do you think this is? I coulds see this as a gambit play later in the game but on day 2 does seem a bit weird unless they really feel they need to earn townie browinie points..

Any chance of a

prod on McZ?

she aint posted since friday 19th in the wee hours (Thursday for those in America)

[Sotty7]

McZombie was prodded yesterday. She has until tomorrow to post in the thread before she is replaced.

[jbernier93]

Some of the same people who said they believed me town (jbernier, Fifi) are now voting me.

Situations change... if everybody kept one set of opinions from the beginning of the game to the end, we'd never get anywhere.

[Seven]

@JT: Whether there is a Jasper&Fifi scumteam doesn't really matter. Jasper is scummy independently of Fifi, how does this affect your vote? (Or does it, even)

[camn]

OK.. it seems McZombie is flaking out in every game I am in.
I am willing to lynch on principle.. but I understand flake=/=scum.

Hmm. I just ISO'd my top 3 suspects.. and they are weak suspects. Mostly POE's anyway. which is a problem.

I am starting to believe that a Jasper lynch might be the only thing we have going for us.
This is looking to be unfolding into a pretty info-heavy, PR directed game.. and the info could come in handy.

I will admit I have been dragging my feet re: him because I was thinking maybe he was lying about being ONE SHOT.
A vig claiming one-shot is a pretty good move, since then the scum don't see you as a threat anymore. You buy another kill. I have no reason to think he is doing this, except that it is what >I< would do....

Anyway, I will support a Jasper lynch if I can't get a more solid scum-read on anyone else

[Seven]

Jasper is the best lynch right now but I'll feel bad if we mislynch when we still have a lot of time before deadline. I don't really know what more information we can get though.. we've had three claims since the beginning of the day. I'm still waiting on Jasper to give us his defense, but besides that... If we can wait at least for the replacement to come in for McZ it might have a different perspective and see things we hadn't considered.

I guess there are still a lot of people not voting so maybe I'm getting ahead of myself.

[Wacky]

Jasper <-> The1fifi (could be scum team together, playing a crazy gambit)

How likely do you think this is? I coulds see this as a gambit play later in the game but on day 2 does seem a bit weird unless they really feel they need to earn townie browinie points..

.... probably not. From what I have seen of Jasper and The1fifi's playstyles in this game, I can't see them doing it. But I would like to keep this option open.

You can't have the flavor and ignore the flavor. If you are calling "buried in a snowman" anti-town.. then you must accept "multiple gunshots", no?

"Multiple gunshots" is open to interpretation as well - I could envision it being mafia emptying a few rounds into poor Regfan. But I'm still open to other ideas if you'd can present a better case against them to Jasper.

[Zachrulez]

Weighing in on the whole flavor thing, the problem with the word "multiple" is that it's not a clear number of shots. It's hard to accept that as proof that it indicates a vig and mafia kill under the logic that each got a shot, when multiple is not clearly two shots, but could be more than two shots.

That's just the issue I'm seeing with using the flavor either way.

[Zachrulez]

Also not liking the fact that 610 has been left unaddressed by Jasper.

[Nikanor]

Sorry guys, I'm moving and haven't had the time to do a reread of the DTM lynch like I've been meaning to do.
I should be all settled down by Monday, but hopefully it won't take me that long to do a read-through.

[camn]

Weighing in on the whole flavor thing, the problem with the word "multiple" is that it's not a clear number of shots. It's hard to accept that as proof that it indicates a vig and mafia kill under the logic that each got a shot, when multiple is not clearly two shots, but could be more than two shots.

That's just the issue I'm seeing with using the flavor either way.

The question is.. can you read that flavor as a TOWN VIG, with ONE BULLET killing regfan.. whilst the scum attempted to kill Wacky? Cuz I can't.

Single scum kill? yes.
Multiple kill? YES.

But none of these options has Wacky as a target, or Wacky as scum.

[camn]

correction...

"or Wacky as BOCKED scum"