Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Ellibereth]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

Devotress

- 1 - The1fifi - (L-5)

StrangerCoug

- 4 - Fate, Jack, Faraday, wolframnhart - (L-2)

The1fifi

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-5)

Players not voting: Devotress, Ellibereth, Hoopla, TonyMontana

Oh shi-

I have another to add to my list of fears! QUICK HAMMER ELLIE HES AT L-1!!

I ALSO want to point out that Hoopla hasn't even voted Fifi despite acknowledging his huge slip.

4 votes on. not 5.

[Fate]

SC- (Fate, Jack, Faraday, Wolf) [L-2]

You're right. WHO IS THE TOWNIE THAT IS MISSING?

TONY/DEVOTRESS WHICH ONE OF YOU WANTS TOWNIE POINTS!?

[TonyMontana]

I DO, I DO -.-

Give me a minute, and I'll add my vote as soon as I make sure i can stand by it. More worried about missing the vig than i am about town cred.

[TonyMontana]

Vote: SC

Like I'm gonna turn the ship at this point... ¬¬

[Ellibereth]

ELLI's LAST LIST

STRANGER
FIFI
HOOPLA
DEVOTRESS

AYIYIYIYIYIYIYIYI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! COMEBACK TIME!!!!!!!!!!!! (I hope) ;P

Vote: Stranger

GOOD LUCK GUYZ.

[Hoopla]

Vote: StrangerCoug

Okay, you guys better be right about him being the vig. If SC is just regular scum, I'm calling Fate-vig.

[Fate]

Vote: StrangerCoug

Okay, you guys better be right about him being the vig. If SC is just regular scum, I'm calling Fate-vig.

LULZ TOO LATE, TOWN SPOT RESERVED FOR TM

[Hoopla]

What if I bribe you?

[Fate]

Ok, guarantee me that scum won't sacr-OH SHI ALMOST SLIPPED

[Hoopla]

Smile, life is good!

[Fate]

You guys are killing Ellie tonight, right? It's too late to change actions right Spyrex?

[Hoopla]

I don't know. I wish I had a kill.

[Jack]

Nice. Although TM's vote post sounds pretty scummy to me. Hoopla's almost laughably so.

[Hoopla]

Nice. Although TM's vote post sounds pretty scummy to me. Hoopla's almost laughably so.

What incentive would I have to bus a vig if I was scum? It doesn't even make sense. In case I'm attacked in my sleep, Jack needs to be hung tomorrow.

[Fate]

What math supports that Hoopla? What if he is vengeful?

[Jack]

If SC flips vig:

Lynch Hoopla and then fifi

If not:

fifi and then hoopla

Then I think tony, although I don't actually have anything to put him over Devotress with. That one could be tough.

[Hoopla]

Group 1:

Socrates (12,1)

Group 2:

Fate (13,4)

Group 3:

bouncy.bouncy (2,1), Cobalt (2,10)

Group 4:

RayFrost (4,6), Redcoyote (4,9)

Group 5:

Jack (7,2),

FeFiFoFum (7,11)

Group 6:

StrangerCoug (3,1)

, The1fifi (3,7), wolframnhart (3,7)

Group 7:

Devotress (8,3),

Porkens (8,9), DocPotter (8,10)

Group 8:

Ellibereth (1,2)

,

Dramonic (1,1)

, Hoopla (1,1), TonyMontana (1,1)

Group 9:

Farside (6,3), curiouskarmadog (6,12), Pomegranate (6,4),

Faraday (6,4)

This set of groups works on the basis that Fate is town, so Fate, you'll love this! I'm also considering Ellibereth town too, as if he is scum then we lose no matter what happens. Lets also assume StrangerCoug is some form of scum too - otherwise, again, the game is over. So, lets forget those scenarios, and work on how the town can win if these initial assumptions are true.

For scum, there are still three of them out there, but still one big fat wedge of players right there in the middle. There is a decent chance Fifi is scum, which basically confirms wolf as town, as there is little to no chance scum tripled up there. But why would scum not take vig, if they didn't have at least one high-ish pick to grab it? It doesn't make sense, because scum know how powerful such a role is.

If Strangercoug is just a regular scum, it means Jack is probably scum based on him being in a higher drafted singular group. After filtering out previous assumptions, which can account for no more than a 5% swing, Jack has a 3/5 chance of being scum over every other player in the game (myself included). But then if SC flips scum vig, it increases Jacks chances of being scum by a 45% chance based on the role order contradiction. Of course, there are only 3 groups left after this, and roleclaims that don't make logical sense for either Jack or Devotress.

But lets assume in this scenario that myself and Faraday get nightkilled, it wipes out another group, improving Jack's odd by another 15% (due to a group being eliminated). There is a small chance Fate is scum bomb with StrangerCoug, but it's too farfetched to even consider, really, and doesn't affect the odds in my opinion. Anyway, combine this with the vengeful auto-lose, and you have a situation where it's far likelier for Jack to be scum with TonyMontanna. But only lynch him if SC flips scum other vig, otherwise you're going to be making a suboptimal lynch. Fifi is the right choice if SC flips vig, because Devotress only has a 17% chance.

Vote: TonyMontanna

[Fate]

Finally I have a legitimate reason to not look at your posts now!

Why did you vote after someone got hammered, also? >_>!?

AND WHY WAS IT SOMEONE BESIDES FIFI!?

Hammer of Justice, HoJ: Hoopla

Just in case there was any doubt.

[Hoopla]

WTF? When did StrangerCoug get hammered?

[wolframnhart]

eli did, and if he hadn't you would have

[Hoopla]

Wow, major

fos: Ellibereth

.

wolf, is tony scum? y/n?
if tony is scum, is it possible for hoopla to be scum?
on a scale of 1-10 how scummy is ckd looking at the moment?

[Fate]

Actually, *skims over the numbers*

Also, did you just assume you and Faraday would be NK'd?

O_o? What in the hell scum team doesn't kill da Govenah?

[Hoopla]

Actually, *skims over the numbers*

Also, did you just assume you and Faraday would be NK'd?

O_o? What in the hell scum team doesn't kill da Govenah?

Well, it's the logical choice for scum. It's a decent assumption right? Why would they kill the bomb, and Elli has been wrong with his reads all game - so he'll be good for scum to keep around.

[Fate]

Wow, major

fos: Ellibereth

.

wolf, is tony scum? y/n?
if tony is scum, is it possible for hoopla to be scum?
on a scale of 1-10

how scummy is ckd looking at the moment?

This is hilarious.

*popcorn*

"Major FOS on the person that hammered before I did!"

[Hoopla]

Yeah, Fate is town guys. That guarentees Jack scum.