Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[The1fifi]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

The1fifi

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-5)

Players not voting: Devotress, Ellibereth, Faraday, Fate, Hoopla, Jack, The1fifi, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

ummm... it would make more sense to go for rolecop than bomb, imo, but okay. What we need is to find the vig.

[Ellibereth]

Fifi, do you have any complete games on this site or somewhere else?
I'm having trouble telling between VI and Scum.

[The1fifi]

Fifi, do you have any complete games on this site or somewhere else?
I'm having trouble telling between VI and Scum.

I am not an idiot ffs. Why are you so full of yourselfs?

[Ellibereth]

Fifi, do you have any complete games on this site or somewhere else?
I'm having trouble telling between VI and Scum.

I am not an idiot ffs. Why are you so full of yourselfs?

That means your scum then.
I still want my links.

[Ellibereth]

Oh yerhz, Fate, how exactly did you emulate Porkens? I don't think just the name would be enough. How many posts are in your QT?

[Fate]

25 posts. I've never played with Porkens and his one-liners didn't help me emulate him... so I just winged it. Faraday said he bought it because of my "thoughts" on TM.

Here's an ongoing game with fifi if you want to observe. He hasn't flipped, but... (well you'll see):

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=13336

[Ellibereth]

I'm declaring Fate and Faraday town.
Next up is Jack, who I always read town...Jack, do you have any recent complete/you've flipped scum games? If not a few old ones can suffice too if your playstyle is sufficiently similar. If not...whatevs.

[Fate]

Either Fate or Jack are the vig.

I don't think jack shares my vision of going for vig relatively low on the draft, so:

unvote

Vote Fate

Why did you pick Vig again, fifi?

How could you possibly know whether Jack "shares your vision" in relation to choosing roles?
Why is SC left out of this list, but added later when you agree with Jack and vote him?

[Ellibereth]

Not the kills, the hope was that the governor wouldn't be around.

I don't see Hoopla being scum with Socrates unless scum DON'T have Governor. But I'll trust your word on CKD (since your read of me is correct).

Btw fate, scum have no governer. Help me out on Hoopla. I've flipped flopped back and forth, front and back on her all game.
(I know she won't be of much consequence today, since today is lynch-the-vig-day, but I'm a piece of dead meat soon and I want to figure it all out. )

[Fate]

Hoopla should be here right about now to push her numbers theories. Not doing that worries me...

Anyway:
Socrates (12,1) -Scum
Fate (13,4) -Town
bouncy.bouncy (2,1) -Town
Cobalt (2,10) -Town
RayFrost (4,6) -Town
Redcoyote (4,9) -Town
Jack (7,2) -???
FeFiFoFum (7,11) -Town
StrangerCoug (3,1) -
The1fifi (3,7) -
wolframnhart (3,7) -Town
Devotress (8,3) -????
Porkens (8,9) -Town

If Jack is town and SC is also town, only one scum was in the top 9. Doubtful. Anyway, shamelessly ripped from Hoopla:

Group 2:

Fate

Group 3:

Jack

Group 4:

StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart

Group 5:

Devotress

Group 6:

Ellibereth, Hoopla, TonyMontana

Group 7:

Faraday

SC and fifi could very well be the doubled up scum. This is also the first post I actually realize that almost half the town is scum right now... How the hell are we supposed to get a majority on the scum's own vig?

[Fate]

Not the kills, the hope was that the governor wouldn't be around.

I don't see Hoopla being scum with Socrates unless scum DON'T have Governor. But I'll trust your word on CKD (since your read of me is correct).

Btw fate, scum have no governer. Help me out on Hoopla. I've flipped flopped back and forth, front and back on her all game.
(I know she won't be of much consequence today, since today is lynch-the-vig-day, but I'm a piece of dead meat soon and I want to figure it all out. )

Why did you claim again? You didn't really need a bigger target on you anyway... (should've waited for TM and Devotress then claimed Bulletproof, imo.) At least scum have to choose between you and Faraday now. And if Wolf lives he gets to make another connection to me (That's what you're doing tonight, right Wolf?)

Hoopla isn't pushing numbers as much as she used to. That's her "meta" imo, regardless of alignment (this is the first I've played with her though). I can easily see her using them all the time regardless of alignment.

Things against her:
1. Socrates called innocent on her. WIFOM land
2. Today the only thing I've seen from her is "Here's the math on why we

shouldn't

lynch Jack." Don't like that at all. I think Town Hoopla would've used the fact that Jack is probscum if I'm not based to him being one of the few singulars.

She also WIFOM'd earlier that Jack was town because "scum wouldn't kill RC and leave Jack in a group by himself so early" which is complete BS. Or she believed her number theory so strongly that assumes scum bases their NK around it...

Like you said, she'll be of consequence later. I gotta take it one day at a time here.

[Ellibereth]

Why did you claim again? You didn't really need a bigger target on you anyway... (should've waited for TM and Devotress then claimed Bulletproof, imo.)

Because I don't like lying. It's hard for me to fake stuff for too long...(And I didn't even think of that). I think we need another handy reference chart!

THE HEROIC MEMBERS OF THE TOWN
---------------------------------
GOVERNER Ellibereth
EXPLOSIVE Fate
NEIGHOR Wolframhart
VANILLA Faraday

THE OUTCASTS
---------------------------------
VENGEFUL Jack
VANILLA Stranger
VANILLA Fifi
VANILLA Hoopla
THE CLAIMLESS Devotress
WHO ARE YOU AGAIN? Tony Montana

TRUE IDENTITIES REVEALED?
---------------------------------
EVILVIG Fifi (Stranger? Jack???)
GOONIE Hoopla
GOONIE Tony Montana
GOONIE Devotress

[Ellibereth]

This is also the first post I actually realize that almost half the town is scum right now... How the hell are we supposed to get a majority on the scum's own vig?

FATE, WOLF, FARADAY: Together we have to decide who the EVILVIG is!
Then I will become go from GOVERNER to DICTATOR and force the rest of the town to vote with us. We just need 2 more then after all!

[Fate]

My random paranoia is probably getting annoying for anyone doing a read, but I can't help it:

Faraday said something in the QT that triggered it: SC and Fifi claimed around the same time.

Remember my theory of SC being scumvanilla going for bomb, and Jack being the scumvig?

WHAT IF:

FIFI is the vanilla that went for the bomb. This throws my whole "SC wouldn't gambit a bomb claim as the vig" theory out of the water. SC is the real vig, then. Jack is an actual vengeful lynchee.

Now why fifi and SC countervoted eachother, I don't understand. But this explains their both claiming so unprovoked and near eachother.

This situation makes SC even less clear, and it makes me think lynching Jack to have him shoot fifi/SC is worse because it is 50% shot.

Ranked in order of scariness:

Fate's list of fear

1.

Jack is scumvig with SC as vanilla bomb below him. Devotress is vengeful lynchee

2.

SC is scumvig with vanilla bomb fifi below him. Jack is townlynchee

3.

Fifi is scumvig with town vanilla SC above him and... town Jack above him as well?

Writing it out like that makes #3 look pretty stupid. #1 is really scary because we have to deal with a scumvengeful. This means we have to hit the vig today, and scum nonvengeful until we're out of Lylo (not sure if this math is even posssible).

#2 looks pretty plausible. But that would require a town jack, and a pretty good scumteam, and, let's be honest, did fifi and SC come up with this? Hoopla? LurkerTM?

Which boils down to this: Lynch the scummiest person, SC. Obvious distancing from Socrates early on, rest of the case on him, etc.

But fifi was voting. him, but then unvoted when I posted a plausible situation. What do I make of this? -_-

@Ellie's town list: Wow. Looking at it that way scum did a hell of a lot of damage with nothing more than a cop and a vig. Maybe an empowerer somewhere near the bottom. TM is the wildcard that makes or breaks the list though, since we need every single member of town voting the Vig (unless the scum want to buss them and never be suspected again! ;D)

It's only been two days since he posted though. Feels like a lot longer than that.

[Fate]

Fruits of my re-read:

Pages 42-43, SC and fifi have an interesting exchange. fifi FoS's SC for "Seeming to believe" Socrates.

Post #1052: Hoopla
In my opinion, if the governor is town, they need to claim now, so we can assess if they are likely town or not. This gives us a better understanding of how urgently we need to find the vig, and how long we have left. If we can safely assume the governor is town, then it gives us a bit more security.

What does everyone else think? Having the governor hidden only benefits scum, because if the governor is town, they are not going to use the power anyway. So, even by outing the governor we don't lose anything by it claiming.

We all agreed that if scum had the governor at this point, we were dead. Bad post by Hoopla.

#1056: Jack
He disagress with Hoopla thinking the governor should claim.

#1058&1059, SC and fifi claim back to back.

#1060: Socrates
Stranger is obvtown btw.

Not much to work with, but hey he voted me as his scumbuddy in the same post...

#1071: Hoopla

1) Lets wait until everyone checks in again before make such assessments. I'll bold this request - if you're the town governor, you must claim now.
2) Well, if we don't find the vig today we will likely lose. If we don't find it tomorrow we almost definitely lose. If nobody claims governor, then we know for sure this is the case.
3) If you think this is a no-hope chance for the town, why not listen to me and follow my orders, and let me try and give the town a chance at winning this game. I think I'm one of the one's taking it most seriously, and could do some damage if I have people to back me up. I will likely die tonight, and I hope the town just doesn't give up, so I'm staking everything on finding the vig.

And at the moment, I think it's one of the three players in the only untouched group - StrangerCoug, Fifi, wolf.

Consistent with her number analysis. She points the finger at the untouched group thinkin scum are afraid of the number theory.

#1073: SC
"Hoopla wrote:
And at the moment, I think it's one of the three players in the only untouched group - StrangerCoug, Fifi, wolf."
That's impossible if both The1fifi and I are telling the truth. We both implied that we tried for a role and got beaten to it. I tried for bomb and didn't get it, leaving me as VT, and likewise for The1fifi trying to get the vig role; wolframnhart is below The1fifi."

WOW LOOK WHAT WE HAVE HERE. THE SITUATION I AM PUSHING NOW IS IMPOSSIBLE, HUH?

#1077: SC
Actually, in Mini 895, it was discussed a bit that you can tell the truth and still be scum. Here, scum can just keep their claims to "vanilla" and not worry too much about lying there. I'm just reminding you that if one of the three people you say is most likely vig is indeed such, one of The1fifi and I have to be scum.

Show me where I assume The1fifi to be town that went for vig and I'll answer your question.

Poses a situation that is close to what I believe to be true, (i.e. fakeclaiming vanilla). Links himself with fifi unnecessarily again. He should've said "if one of the three of us are the vig like you say, it is definitely fifi." This is a very significant post.

POST #1115&116

:
Either Fate or Jack are the vig.

I don't think jack shares my vision of going for vig relatively low on the draft, so:
unvote

Vote Fate
-----
Or stranger coug, but he already claimed he went for bomb.

So between Jack and Fate, one is the bomb and the other is the vig

He automatically believes SC? After forgetting to mention him in the first place? SCUMSLIP.

Then we get to the part where Ellie claims governor, fifi asks who ellie wants to lynch, and Jack has his huge post on SC, the first one of the day to bring suspicion on him.

I think we have enough. I think it is time to go back to Mafia 101 and say:

If Jack were scum with SC, he wouldn't bus him here. A scum kill gives us one more shot at the vig.
Jack hasn't been all that scummy all game.
SC has been terribly scummy. Flailing when Jack and I pressure him. Scumvig afraid to slip up?

Scew those unclaimed punks, I'm making a move:

Vote: StrangerCoug

Check and Mate.

[Devotress]

Lots of posts today: reading now.
Saw some people were wanting myself and a few others to claim, getting that in now before I finish the reading. I'm vanilla, tried to become a rolecop.

[Devotress]

Since elibereth never adressed it, this needs to be reiterated untill he acknowledges it: If you use your govern power on any lynch today, we auto lose, so you can't force town to go with your vote.
Once again, use your power and you lose, assuming you're really town gov.


Fate is pretty much either the town bomb or the scum vig, either option explains his unwillingness to claim early game.
I think I feel most comfortable lynching one of the toper slots, Fate Jack, Stranger. Maybe the1fifi, but i'm feeling like I believe fifi's claim.
Obviously this is because as everyone's allready said, we need to hit the vig.

Rereading socrates day one, he went onto the Fate wagon second, but was mad at people after it hit l-1

the way this wagon reached L-1 was horrendus and I don't think the scumtell I voted him for is worth a lynch

He proceded to unvote fate and vote for Pomegranate instead.
thoughts: He went after fate, and ran off the wagon when it became a very likely lynch. This is either him getting early distancing in on a scumbuddy, or him trying to get townie points for not being on the lynch of someone he knew would turn up town.
I've been going back and forth trying to decide which it is, but my gut is making me want to say he was trying to seem townie by not being on the fate wagon once he flipped.
My reasoning for this is he did a very simaler thing later, when he bothered to come in and post how bad this day 1 lynch of fefifofum was going to be, so close to the deadline that there was no stopping the lynch anyway.

[Devotress]

The post I should have quoted near the end of my last post:

8 votes in a little over 1 page? The wagon is an apathy driven lurker lynch? We are less than 24 hours from deadline?

FeFiFoFum is going to flip town. Wheee!

[Faraday]

Vanilla , went for neighbouriser cos I love to talk to people + it's good for re-inforcing reads on people.

FATE (qt gambit as scum was pointless, plus town read after the early wagon + my mad skills tell me he's not hiding anything in the qt)
Elli (game would be over if he wasn't, right?)

Probably town:
Wolframanhart - He's the neighbouriser rit?


Scum:
Sc
fifi
tonylurksalot(?)
Devotress is probably scum by POE.

I think Hoopla's push against socrates day 1 looks genuine and makes me think she's got a good enough chance of being town.
Jack is a pretty null tell. His claim of vengeful makes sense.

I'm going to re-read some but there's a few things that stood out for me.

[Faraday]

Ugh I really dislike fifi's reaction around the Pom wagon/soc claim. He seems overly excited.

[Faraday]

Case on Strangercoug is good btw. I'd like to hit the vig today if at all possible. What's obviously the main priority is hitting scum today. I think both Sc/fifi are scum though.

Tonymontana needs to claim btw. I'd have prefered him going earlier but ehh, if he's scum he's not the vig obviously.

[Faraday]

Strangercoug voting fifi baffles me. Lemme check why he's doing that.

[Devotress]

you know what, elibereth did adress the governor lynch issue, sorry for not noticing that before I made my post earlier, was just reading stuff again.

[Faraday]

Hey devotress who's your top 3 scum suspects rit nao???

[Devotress]

Strangercoug/Jack cause I figure one of em's gotta be the vig.
Third choice I get wierd gut feelings about Elibereth, he seems scummy to me, but, I agree with him that fates town, so.


You didn't ask, but I get the impression tony montana is just a bored/inactive. Is he posting in other games atm?