Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[The1fifi]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 6

StrangerCoug

- 1 - The1fifi - (L-5)

Players not voting: Devotress, Ellibereth, Faraday, Fate, Hoopla, Jack, StrangerCoug, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

Well, as governor, who are you most inclined to lynch?

[Ellibereth]

Tsk tsk. I'm the one that's doing the questioning now kay?
Good? Understand.
Post with actual stuff other than me going dictator today coming up later.

[Hoopla]

And I'll be stopping any lynch I'm not happy with. So today is the day you guys have to convince

me

!!! Yaaaaaay!!!!
Rereading. I was wrong about Doc.

Sorry to burst the bubble on your little power trip, but a govern on ANY lynch takes the current 6:4 scenario to night with no kill. Guess what's going to happen then?

If you're town, take back that threat, because it means auto-lose. I'm baffled why you'd even bother saying that - because there is zero pro-town motivation. I think it's a safe assumption Elli is scum, and he's just rubbing our noses in it because he can't lose.

[Jack]

More thoughts. My role is vengeful lynchee, so someone is lying here:

soc--cop
fate--??
Jack--claimed vengeful
Coug--claimed vanilla, went for bomb
fifi--claimed vanilla, went for vig

I have my money on Coug/Fate, with fate being more likely vig (bad move for mafia to not take vig in top position), but coug more likely scum overall. I'm uncomfortable with the big wagon on fate day 1, that would take a painstaking reread to tell what the significance of it is though. Coug is the best lynch because he's probable scum, and could tell us that fate is the scumvig depending on his role flip.

There's a lot of scummy stuff in Coug's ISO, but I'll stick to the main point.

Initial vote for soc (after the rvs vote which was unvoted):

Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.

Context:
Soc said hoopla was scummy because her plan for pushing the top of the draft order was pro-scum (the town power roles would get lynched). He theorized that if hoop was scum, the mafia had done badly in the draft.

RedCoyote said this was contradictory because it's like he is using hoopla's logic (about scum being in a certain part of the draft). He isn't though, she's going by number analysis and he's saying her scummy pushing of it indicates that the mafia did badly if she herself is scum.

Coug agrees, but

misses the point

. He focuses on the "hoopla and/or fate flips scum" part. The other reason for his vote is that he's remembering getting lynched as scum in the last game--or something, the last part of the post doesn't make much sense to me. It sounds more like he's thinking about not making the slip he made last game.

*******

If I ignore Hoopla, then my two strong scum reads become Socrates and Pomegranate. Socrates I have the better support for, but what I have on Pomegranate is basically hearsay, which is not grounds for me to want to jump on a wagon.

Fate asked if ignoring Hoopla would make it easier to scumhunt. I replied that not taking Hoopla into account would make Socrates and Pomegranate scum in my mind. While I think Pomegranate has the bigger wagon, I can more easily post a case on Socrates. I don't want to just take everybody's word for it and vote Pomegranate—I'd rather look into her first. (I'm doing that right now, by the way.)

Soc and pom are his scum reads, and in fact "not taking Hoopla into account" would make them both scum. He needs to look into pom though.

His case that he comes up with is in ISO 18. He has three points against soc:

1) The same misinterpreted bit from above (still after the reread). Soc's statement "doesn't make sense", "hence my vote on him".
2) One of socs posts is "somewhat an appeal to emotion"
3) Soc, like several other people, thought that pom's contradiction was scummy. Coug thinks it's a null tell. Apparently finds soc particularly scummy for this even though pom is his other suspect.

Vote: Socrates. I don't care if I just recast the vote I pulled off; I'd rather do that than make the mistake I made in PYP I and claim not to see a case on someone I'm voting.

Scumslip, he was scum in PYP I, once again is thinking about not making the same mistake.

It looks like my vote on Socrates is doing a whole lot of nothing, and I understand bouncy.bouncy's case (that I posted at #429) better than The1fifi. Socrates will have to wait until later.

Vote: Socrates

Do I need to repeat it?

...I still can't get Socrates support, eh?

Well, I'll have to go with number two, which has support already.

Well, that'll teach him to think before sending stuff in...

Vote: Socrates for reasons that we should know by now.

2 themes here:

1) Socrates is obv scum
2) Sigh, I can't get people to vote for him, I won't even try to repost my weak case and push other people though.

Now, contrast this with the posts since Soc's cop claim:

While the theory Socrates just posted makes some sense, I would have faked a different PR, probably doctor. Maybe empowerer if I figured there was a Mafia RB running around.

So yeah. I don't know how to take it, but there were better ways of gambiting than that.

He "doesn't know how to take it"??? His top scumread throughout the game fakeclaimed a guilty cop result.

Heh. So I did.

Screw it anyway. I'm hurting myself by leaving myself open on Socrates, and the "backfired gambit" reads more scum than town.

Unvote if necessary
Vote: Socrates

Fakey and awkward.

[The1fifi]

Elli, Hoopla is right.. if you use your governor power we loose..

Or

you win....

[Fate]

Well, shit. Well now that scum know my role (if SC is town), and town basically know my role (unless SC is scum) It is over.

I am the bomb. Breadcrumb? Signup thread where I said I would pick it. I grilled SC yesterday to make scum think I wasn't the bomb and maybe draw a NK. I don't think SC would take the gambit to fakeclaim "bomb is above me" if he didn't know my role (or possible Jack's).

Also, neigbhorizer, I'm not going to claim who you linked with me, and I don't think you should claim either right now, but please link me with more people. I'm basically unkillable now, unless scum really want to trade 1-1.

The scummiest person right now I think is fifi. BUT Jack is more likely to be vig, since (let me check the draft order) there are two town between him and fifi.

Also if Jack is telling the truth, we'll get a "Town vig shot" if we lynch him. Jack, how do you feel about taking the lynch and vigging fifi?

ANOTHER BUT:

We need a serious prod on Wolf

. He needs to claim before we do anything else today, imo.

[Fate]

ALSO,

Jack if you had a town read on me, you realize we could have both not claimed, and scared the scum each night with a 50% chance of hitting the bomb?

But I understand that you had to claim not bomb, especially since you thought SC was setting up a fakeclaim for me. Oh well..

[Ellibereth]

And I'll be stopping any lynch I'm not happy with. So today is the day you guys have to convince

me

!!! Yaaaaaay!!!!
Rereading. I was wrong about Doc.

Sorry to burst the bubble on your little power trip, but a govern on ANY lynch takes the current 6:4 scenario to night with no kill. Guess what's going to happen then?

If you're town, take back that threat, because it means auto-lose. I'm baffled why you'd even bother saying that - because there is zero pro-town motivation. I think it's a safe assumption Elli is scum, and he's just rubbing our noses in it because he can't lose.

Oh, forgot about that.
Well then, I'll be stopping my own lynch under any circumstances.
Hoopla is scum who went for governer and came up blank IMo btw.

[Jack]

Also:

The nightkills really seem like scum know where bomb is. Kills in the top 6 with the vig? Scum probably have the bomb.

Why would town claim yesterday, before nighttime, that the bomb was above him? It doesn't make sense--it basically let's the mafia not worry at all about the bomb.

I was thinking governor was confirmed town--but lynching soc guarantees victory for scum if they have the governor. If soc is saved, there's a weird chance of the town switching it up and lynching the actually vig the next day. And no, elli shoul certainly not use his power today.

[wolframnhart]

Apologize for major lack of inactivity on my part, no excuse for it.

@fate
I need to claim?

[Hoopla]

Also if Jack is telling the truth, we'll get a "Town vig shot" if we lynch him. Jack, how do you feel about taking the lynch and vigging fifi?

The truth about what? His role and alignment? That is such a bad idea - I'll explain why;

If Jack is town vengeful:

1) Lynch Jack - 5:4
2a) Vengekill any scum except vig - 5:3 ---> double-kill ---> lose
2b) Vengekill town 4:4 ----> lose
2c) Vengekill vig 5:3 ----> single-NK ----> 4:3

One possible out that doesn't = instant lose

Then, if Jack is scum vengeful:

1) Lynch Jack - 6:3
2) Vengekill town (obviously) ----> 5:3 ----> double-kill ----> lose

~~

This isn't even taking into account the possibility of a scum governor too. If the scum have it, we lose before we even get to consider any of those options.

But lets assume the town still has a chance - why would we take that chance that A) Jack is town and B) he will get lucky and hit the vig. Why don't we just try and lynch the vig now?

The only way a Jack lynch should be considered is if he is counterclaimed, which gives him a chance of being vig.

[Hoopla]

Oh, forgot about that.
Well then, I'll be stopping my own lynch under any circumstances.
Hoopla is scum who went for governer and came up blank IMo btw.

For what it's worth, I am vanilla. I tried to net Universal Backup.

[Fate]

Apologize for major lack of inactivity on my part, no excuse for it.

@fate
I need to claim?

Yeah that's what we're doing today. Trying to find the vig and hoping Ellie hasn't gone mad with power.

[Jack]

Also if Jack is telling the truth, we'll get a "Town vig shot" if we lynch him. Jack, how do you feel about taking the lynch and vigging fifi?

If fifi isn't the scumvig, we lose in this scenario. If coug flips bomb like I think he will, then it means that you are the scumvig. Possibly he will flip vig.

Jack if you had a town read on me, you realize we could have both not claimed, and scared the scum each night with a 50% chance of hitting the bomb?

This sounds like you think I'm town, but you just implied that I was the scumvig.

The scum would have just ignored us.

[Fate]

Also if Jack is telling the truth, we'll get a "Town vig shot" if we lynch him. Jack, how do you feel about taking the lynch and vigging fifi?

The truth about what? His role and alignment? That is such a bad idea - I'll explain why;

If Jack is town vengeful:

1) Lynch Jack - 5:4
2a) Vengekill any scum except vig - 5:3 ---> double-kill ---> lose
2b) Vengekill town 4:4 ----> lose
2c) Vengekill vig 5:3 ----> single-NK ----> 4:3

One possible out that doesn't = instant lose

Then, if Jack is scum vengeful:

1) Lynch Jack - 6:3
2) Vengekill town (obviously) ----> 5:3 ----> double-kill ----> lose

~~

This isn't even taking into account the possibility of a scum governor too. If the scum have it, we lose before we even get to consider any of those options.

But lets assume the town still has a chance - why would we take that chance that A) Jack is town and B) he will get lucky and hit the vig. Why don't we just try and lynch the vig now?

The only way a Jack lynch should be considered is if he is counterclaimed, which gives him a chance of being vig.

You were supposed to let Jack answer, but ok, don't let me pressure anyone.

[Ellibereth]

Off the top of my head I think the 1fifi is lying and is the vig.
Jack/Fate still both look extremely town to me...

[wolframnhart]

Ah, I see. Well then I am the Neighborizer.

First night I neighborized Fate and Faraday together, only because I had a town read on both of them and I wanted to see how my power worked really. They didn't say much about if they talked so the next day after Ray asked the neighborizer (me) to do it with him i did, unfortunately he died. The next time I neighborized with Soc for if he was the cop I thought it would be good to pass along any info he had or at least if he survived who he would possibly be looking at in case he died. I didn't get a chance to talk to him though before i saw the whole Soc is not the cop, and before I could proceed to question him he was dead, which was my fault for being inactive.

Farsides explanation of how the Neighborizer should us his power makes me hang my head with shame on how i have used it =/

[Fate]

Jack if you had a town read on me, you realize we could have both not claimed, and scared the scum each night with a 50% chance of hitting the bomb?

This sounds like you think I'm town, but you just implied that I was the scumvig.

The scum would have just ignored us.

Like I said I'm really torn on you Jack. My reads so far this game have been trash (DP, bouncy, Dramonic, etc.) Statistically, you have a higher chance of being the vig than, say fifi. Play wise, I think fifi looks worse/wolf could be vig.

Vengeful is also a very convenient claim, that, as Hoopla pointed out, makes it harder to lynch you.

[Fate]

Ah, I see. Well then I am the Neighborizer.

First night I neighborized Fate and Faraday together, only because I had a town read on both of them and I wanted to see how my power worked really. They didn't say much about if they talked so the next day after Ray asked the neighborizer (me) to do it with him i did, unfortunately he died. The next time I neighborized with Soc for if he was the cop I thought it would be good to pass along any info he had or at least if he survived who he would possibly be looking at in case he died. I didn't get a chance to talk to him though before i saw the whole Soc is not the cop, and before I could proceed to question him he was dead, which was my fault for being inactive.

Farsides explanation of how the Neighborizer should us his power makes me hang my head with shame on how i have used it =/

Faraday and I were both when we saw neither of us was it. I personally thought he was scumgambiting to try and mess with me. I'm guessing that you didn't get an action in yesterday though.

[Hoopla]

You were supposed to let Jack answer, but ok, don't let me pressure anyone.

I never saw that post addressed to anyone specifically. How was I supposed to know you were using ridiculous suggestions as a formula for pressure?

[wolframnhart]

yea i was unable to get an action in.

[Hoopla]

Wolf, why did you take that role so high up the draft list? It seems like a mostly worthless role.

[Fate]

This is good, (unless Faraday and Wolf are scum together and we're screwed) that Wolf is a confirmable role.

Now it's either Fifi, Jack, or SC. SC either took a hell of a risk claiming going for bomb, or he's scum with Jack. In the latter case, Jack should've waited for me to claim first to see if I was bomb or not, so that he could claim bomb.

That makes it 50% right now on Fifi and Jack. Like the numbers better now, Hoopla? Either 50% that Jack is vig, or he's town and vigs Fifi, and then we go to lylo again (what an intense game!)

[wolframnhart]

Which is why i took it. I didn't really want to be a VT, and i thought if we got to a point where we had a mass claim and I was still around I could use it to let two roles like cop/doc or some good pairing like that talk and pass info. I figured by the time my pick was up that all the other fun roles would be gone.

[Fate]

Wolf, why did you take that role so high up the draft list? It seems like a mostly worthless role.

To be honest I was thinking about taking that role. If survived long enough it can create a web of masons as well as a confirmed neigbhorizer. Also seems, from Wolf's perspective I'm guessing, like an odd enough role that he could be sure he wouldn't turn up vanilla.