Mini 912 - Little Golden Mafia (OVER)

[StrangerCoug]

I'll pick first if everybody's fine with that, but I'd rather go popcorn.

No votes have been placed.

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[MacavityLock]

I was going to suggest that SC directs the claim, but I'm fine with popcorn as well. (Don't particularly like dice massclaim.)

[Trumpet of Doom]

I was going to suggest that SC directs the claim

Now we're even.

[totallynotmafia]

What's popcorn? I'm happy with whatever SC wants.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Popcorn is where whoever just claimed says who they want to have claim next. For example, "I'm story XYZ, role PQR. Player N, claim next."

[StrangerCoug]

How about I pick the first person to popcorn?

[peanutman]

I like that SC. You pick first, so we can get this popcorn started and not spend half the day discussing how we mass-claim. I'd like the day to be focused on the claims, not just the process.

[StrangerCoug]

You're first, Trumpet of Doom.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Little Red Hen. VT.

peanutman, you're next.

[peanutman]

Big Bird, VT.

Totallynotmafia, your turn.

[totallynotmafia]

I'm Little Girl from A Sleepy Story, Vig. Sorry for putting us in LyLo, I was pretty sure dramonic was scum and hadn't considered the consequences of being wrong. I killed kunkstar mostly because of selfish reasons, everybody seemed to think all the scum were on PJ's wagon, but obviously from my point of view it was just as likely they were on mine and so I wanted to prove a point and hopefully save myself from a possible mis-lynch the next day, and kunkstar was the third on my wagon so I thought he would be the most likely to be scum. Anyway, I can put people to sleep at night, but I'm guessing that's probably a bad idea to do from now on. There's another aspect to my role but I think it would be beneficial to keep scum in the dark about it, but if everybody (well, SC really) thinks its better to reveal it then I'm happy to.

Your go lobstermania.

[lobstermania]

Tawny Scrawny Lion, VT.

MacavityLock, your last.

[MacavityLock]

Sam the Firehouse Cat, vanilla.

OK all, I've seen this situation before. Unless the mafia is ridiculously over-powered, we're in 2 maf, 1 SK, 3 town. Here's the interesting bit: We can't lynch the SK today, or the maf will win (2 maf, 2 town tomorrow -> maf win). So, SK, it's time to claim that you're the SK. We won't lynch you, I promise!

[StrangerCoug]

I'm not willing to go after totallynotmafia, but if he's right about his claim he misplayed his role. If you're going to vig someone over selfish reasons, do it Night 0, not Night 1. I also notice that he failed to pick up my breadcrumbing dramonic being my scumbuddy (preemptively shooting down Phlight's suspicions of him in 219 and calling his dramonic-scum theory "laughable" in 234), but hey, I can't pick up breadcrumbs to save my life.

And, yes, the SK needs to claim.

[peanutman]

Maybe I'm not seeing this correctly but I would bet strong odds that TNF is the SK. Of the 3 other claimed VTs (i.e. Lobster, Mac, Trumpet), there is two scum and one townie. I doubt that TNF would have claimed that as scum and would have no need to do so as townie. Therefore, his claim is either true, or it's an easy fake-claim for SK. Looking balance-wise, along with the claims, to me, totallynotmafia must be the SK.

That being said, I will re-read Lobster, Mac and Trumpet, as well as look into the flavour of their roles to find the last two mafiosos.

[StrangerCoug]

Yeah. I find him as the SK very plausible.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Observations:

TNM's claim virtually ensures that he is, in fact, not mafia, so we can't lynch him today. Like the rest of you, I'm thinking he's SK, not town.

However, if I may play devil's advocate for a moment, while it's in town's best interest for an SK to claim (so we know one player not to lynch today) and it's in mafia's best interest for an SK to claim (if they kill him, they avoid the potential for a kingmaker situation), it's not in an SK's best interest to claim today if they want to have any chance of winning (we don't lynch them today, but they'll almost certainly be NK'd tonight; if they claim now, their only chance of winning is if they can get to kingmaker). So I agree, I'd like them to claim, but I won't hold my breath over it.

Between {peanutman, ML, lobster}, I think peanutman's the most likely scum, which might be partly because his play here is reminiscent of his scum play in Mafia 102 (link's on my wiki page, if you're interested; it's also my only scum game in the last 12 months) - that said, I haven't seen his town play and am not likely to get a chance to do so in the next few days. I'll take a closer look at the other two at some point.

[MacavityLock]

TNM's claim virtually ensures that he is, in fact, not mafia, so we can't lynch him today.

While I too see TNM-SK as completely plausible, I don't see how you're getting this. Why is he almost certainly not maf?

[peanutman]

Macavity, it seems quite clear that he isn't. Why would he, if he were mafia, throw this gambit towards the end? All the eliminations have been townies, therefore, if he were mafia, he wouldn't need to throw out this kind of play. Add to that the fact that the set-up means there must be a SK or vig (though extremely unlikely both), his claim of vig (versus all others as VT or mason(SC) ) basically confirms him SK/vig. I expected both mafia to claim VT as well. I find it odd that you put this in question after you had laid out the scenarios quite smartly and you seemed on top of the game a few days ago?

[Trumpet of Doom]

...I had some really good reason thought up earlier, and now I can't think of what it was. Something to the effect of "I don't think mafia would claim vig and pick those two targets, especially given that peanutman's already suggested that "run over" is the mafia kill flavor. They'll just draw the SK kill if they do that - it seems like the risk outweighs the reward."

[totallynotmafia]

Heh, my first power role and I get accused of being a serial killer, I guess it's my own fault really for being so trigger-happy, and I'm not really sure how to refute it. From my perspective, the only way there could be a SK in the game is if there's a SK who hasn't killed yet or scum group who hasn't killed yet, which I highly doubt.

As far as everybody's claim, the only one that I can see that might be linked to the "ran over" flavour is sam the firehouse cat (possibly a fire truck), or maybe Big Bird had a ride on a tractor or something when he was on the farm. Next time I'm at the library I'll try to find all the books, it's kind of hard to tell just from the front cover.

[MacavityLock]

Macavity, it seems quite clear that he isn't. Why would he, if he were mafia, throw this gambit towards the end? All the eliminations have been townies, therefore, if he were mafia, he wouldn't need to throw out this kind of play. Add to that the fact that the set-up means there must be a SK or vig (though extremely unlikely both), his claim of vig (versus all others as VT or mason(SC) ) basically confirms him SK/vig. I expected both mafia to claim VT as well. I find it odd that you put this in question after you had laid out the scenarios quite smartly and you seemed on top of the game a few days ago?

I really don't follow. Why wouldn't he throw the gambit? How do you know he has no reason to?

Re: peanut having suggested "run over" as maf-kill. I didn't want to say anything until after massclaim, but why would you think this? How do you know what kill flavor fits for maf vs scum in this kind of theme?

----

...I had some really good reason thought up earlier, and now I can't think of what it was. Something to the effect of "I don't think mafia would claim vig and pick those two targets, especially given that peanutman's already suggested that "run over" is the mafia kill flavor. They'll just draw the SK kill if they do that - it seems like the risk outweighs the reward."

Isn't that true the opposite way? That is, SK claiming vig would draw the maf night kill? I'm not sure I see any sort of certainty here.

Actually, now that I think about it, a SK would be

less

likely to make this claim, due to drawing the night kill. One dead maf doesn't end the game for them, while one dead SK does end the game for him. This would be less of a problem if he was NK-immune. I'm more comfortable ruling out NK-vulnerable SK than maf for TNM.

----

TNM, you explained your kunkstar kill, but not your dramonic. Why did you think dramonic was scummy?

[totallynotmafia]

TNM, you explained your kunkstar kill, but not your dramonic. Why did you think dramonic was scummy?

I've also been suspicious of some of the people who haven't really contributed much (Macavity, lobster, wolf, dramonic) so I looked at them all in ISO, and the one who came off as most likely to be scum is dramonic. The only thing he's contributed really is votes on bandwagons.FOS dramonic

I was tossing up between dramonic and Trumpet last night, Phlight's case on trumpet was pretty good in the new light of phlight being town, but I was worried it could just be another case of town attacking town, especially because the initial attack came from the fake hypoclaim. Dramonic however hadn't really contributed anything to the discussion but had still managed to vote on both mis-lynches so I was pretty sure he was lurking scum. A quick re-read has made me wish I'd shot Trumpet last night, and if it was deadline now I'd probably vote for him, but I'll do a thorough reread soon and post my thoughts.

In the meantime:

@lobstermania: you're ISO is pretty short and there's not a lot to go off, so who do you think is scum?

[peanutman]

I really don't follow. Why wouldn't he throw the gambit? How do you know he has no reason to?

Re: peanut having suggested "run over" as maf-kill. I didn't want to say anything until after massclaim, but why would you think this? How do you know what kill flavor fits for maf vs scum in this kind of theme?

I thought I had explained the reasoning for it, but mafia would have no incentive to play that gambit. For one, having claimed with still two people to go, he is hoping no one else will claim Vig or SK (huge risk). Secondly, he would be drawing unnecessary attention on himself. Finally, his claim and explanation is much more consistent as Vig or SK than as maf.

I clearly don't have any way of knowing which killing flavour matches with who. However, I can still make an educated guess. The fact that the SK role has, by definition, the world silent in it (silent --> put to sleep) and that the mafia is generally a more violent group (i.e. run over), I shared with everyone what I thought of when reading the night results.
ML, could you explain what you mean by not wanting to say anything until after the massclaim? Had you thought it was odd when I first mentioned it but didn't want to say anything then? Or you just caught it during a read-through before the mass-claim and hold onto it until now? Basically, why wait until now to say this? Did you need a handy accusation in case I questionned you (ad-hom attack)?

------

Between {peanutman, ML, lobster}, I think peanutman's the most likely scum, which might be partly because his play here is reminiscent of his scum play in Mafia 102 (link's on my wiki page, if you're interested; it's also my only scum game in the last 12 months) - that said, I haven't seen his town play and am not likely to get a chance to do so in the next few days. I'll take a closer look at the other two at some point.

There are quite a few things wrong with how you portrayed me here.
1) You say I'm most likely scum because my play is reminiscent of my scum play in a different game, even though you admit that you've never read any of my other games (how could you even make that comparison?)
2) Related to the first point, you lay out a bold statement (that I am most likely scum), and then qualify that your reasoning for it isn't so strong and that you won't be able to follow up on this for a few days. It is manipulative to make such a statement at this point in the game, followed by weak reasoning and no desire to confirm it.
3) You claim I'm the scummiest without even looking at ML or Lobster. You can't judge amongst 3 people by only looking at one of them.

-------

Case on Lobstermania :

- Very little posting (without much content compared to other players). Has been cruising along without putting much visible effort into the game.
- Has inquired about the NKs a few times

Also, no one has brought up the two night kills. Is it too early to consider it?

The only part that bothers me is the two PR's NK'd N1.

- He random-voted for TNF on Jan. 20th, acknowledge that RVS was over on Jan 26th., and then, on Feb. 3rd

I'm going to keep my vote on TotallyNotMafia for now. He seems a bit trigger happy and that's not sitting well.

From his RVS-vote to this post, he didn't mention TNF once. Why wouldn't he have unvoted when he had acknowledged the end of RVS? He didn't mention any lingering suspicion on TNF until Feb 3rd. (By the way, following the post that I quoted, he has posted a total of 5 times without really contributing to the scum-hunting).
- Promised posts twice, having delivered late without much content both times.
- Has only voted once in the whole game, the whole 3 days!!!!!! And it was his RVS-vote.

I am cautious about placing a vote just yet, given that we are in MYLO, put he is definitely my top pick for scum.

[MacavityLock]

I thought I had explained the reasoning for it, but mafia would have no incentive to play that gambit. For one, having claimed with still two people to go, he is hoping no one else will claim Vig or SK (huge risk). Secondly, he would be drawing unnecessary attention on himself. Finally, his claim and explanation is much more consistent as Vig or SK than as maf.

Why is a SK any more likely to do this than a maf? Wouldn't that be just as much of a gambit for SK as for maf?

I clearly don't have any way of knowing which killing flavour matches with who. However, I can still make an educated guess. The fact that the SK role has, by definition, the world silent in it (silent --> put to sleep) and that the mafia is generally a more violent group (i.e. run over), I shared with everyone what I thought of when reading the night results.

Uh... SK usually stands for Serial Killer. Where are you getting "silent" from?

ML, could you explain what you mean by not wanting to say anything until after the massclaim? Had you thought it was odd when I first mentioned it but didn't want to say anything then? Or you just caught it during a read-through before the mass-claim and hold onto it until now? Basically, why wait until now to say this? Did you need a handy accusation in case I questionned you (ad-hom attack)?

I absolutely noticed it when you mentioned it, but once a massclaim is the next order of business, I try to stop voicing suspicions, cases, everything until the massclaim is done. This is to keep as much info out of the hands of scum as possible. (For example, I bring out a case on a scum. The scum then realizes that a specific role claim will explain away said case.)

Also, where are you getting ad hominem out of that at all? Have you questioned me yet?