Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Hoopla]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 7

Fate

- 1 - Socrates - (L-6)

Socrates

- 5 - Ellibereth, Jack, The1fifi, Fate, DocPotter - (L-2)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Devotress, Faraday, Hoopla, StrangerCoug, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

That's impossible if both The1fifi and I are telling the truth

. We both implied that we tried for a role and got beaten to it. I tried for bomb and didn't get it, leaving me as VT, and likewise for The1fifi trying to get the vig role; wolframnhart is below The1fifi.

It's impossible Fate is scum if he's telling the truth. It's impossible I'm scum if I'm truthful too. I don't understand the need to reassert such a basic concept about the game. If anything, it makes it seem like you're insecure with your statements and need to reaffirm their merit.

As for the rest of your post - we don't know Socrates' role or Jack and Fate's claims, so your claiming of players above you taking specific roles is not something that can be assessed, without knowledge of what those players you're setting up claim to be. You're automatically assuming Fifi's claim is true by the way. Why?

[The1fifi]

(btw, i found funny how fate abreviated socrates name to SC, then put in brackets the full name so he won't be confuded with StrangerCoug. The whole point of abreviating was lost lol)

The governor shouldn't claim. I dead serious. why claim now?

"Oh, i am the governor, you can lynch Soc..

Night : Player x, town governor, has been shot "

No. W lynch Soc, without fear as fate said. There is no chance he is town. From there, acording to who is alive we decide. There is no point in letting Soc live longer

[StrangerCoug]

Actually, in Mini 895, it was discussed a bit that you can tell the truth and still be scum. Here, scum can just keep their claims to "vanilla" and not worry too much about lying there. I'm just reminding you that if one of the three people you say is most likely vig is indeed such, one of The1fifi and I have to be scum.

Show me where I assume The1fifi to be town that went for vig and I'll answer your question.

[Jack]

I don't see the point in this today.

Socrates has a high chance of being vig, and he's scum which means we don't lose if we lynch him. If he's

not[/] the vig, then we get information about where the vig could be, depending on the role he flips. If he flips bomb, then it's almost proof that fate is the vig.

I think we have three shots to hit the vig, at least that's how it worked out in my head. We have to hit some kind of scum if we miss obviously.

[Hoopla]

SC and Fifi just denied Vig, as expected. If Jack is the vig, he'll deny it. If Wolf is the vig, Fifi lied to throw off suspicion AND Wolf will deny it.

Seriously, in a game where you can claim VT reasonably after this many flips, how do you propose we find the vig?

1. Lynch SC, fifi is telling the truth and it is either Jack or SC (or Socrates)
2. Lynch Jack, see above
3. Lynch Me, see above
4. Lynch Wolf for no reason other than he could be lying
^All these situations a mislynch will lead to instant loss

I think lynching Socrates leads to a town loss, which is why we need to take a shot at hitting the vig now. It's a slim chance yes, but I think it's better than going down the other path. I also think we have enough information to guess where the vig isn't, to give ourselves a decent chance. Some logik;

1) Socrates is scum, although I don't think he is the vig.
2) Fate is probably not scum, and almost certainly not the vig
3) Jack could be scum, but if he was the vig, I doubt scum would have killed off RC (at least as early as they did) to leave Jack exposed in a group by themself.
4) I'm starting to become convinced that scum gambited and took cop first to neutralise the power of cop, and then assume everyone else would assume vig was gone. Meaning scum could pick it up lower in the order.
5) If number 4 is true, it is very likely it is within the group of Stranger/Fifi/wolf due to that group being untouched.

My current theory is a Fifi/wolf scumteam where wolf is the vig and Fifi is trying to deflect attention either to himself or the players higher up the order. It seems like a very sensible ploy. There have been times where wolf has come under suspicion by players but never really bandwagoned successfully. Usually alternate wagons have kicked on at this time, which is the sort of behaviour I'd expect scum to have toward and around their vigilante.

Two questions for everyone to answer when they have time;

Is it a worthwhile risk taking a shot at anyone else other than Socrates?
Who are your top vigilante suspects?

[StrangerCoug]

Two questions for everyone to answer when they have time;

Is it a worthwhile risk taking a shot at anyone else other than Socrates?

I'm having a hard time figuring out why it would hurt in the long run unless Socrates is town, something I'm still unsettled on.

Who are your top vigilante suspects?

Fate and The1fifi, depending on if the latter's claim is correct.

[DocPotter]

Not on a slim chance. We can survive not hitting the vig if we hit scum. (If they have both vengeful and govenor then we are probably screwed reguardless)

Fate, Socrates, TonyMontana.

Hoopla, the highest Wolf has gotten is 3 votes, and the second time it happened that third vote was placed by fifi, and it was Elli who shifted off first.

[The1fifi]

Is it a worthwhile risk taking a shot at anyone else other than Socrates?

Definetely not.



Who are your top vigilante suspects?
Soc and Fate. SC or Jack seem plausible to, but i don't think many people suport my theory that if for some reason vig is not picked at 1#, 2#, then it won't be picked at all. Therefore, the chances of a vig lower in the draft (as low as me, as i already stated i miss the vig) are low.

[The1fifi]

Is it a worthwhile risk taking a shot at anyone else other than Socrates?

Definetely not.

Who are your top vigilante suspects?

Soc and Fate. SC or Jack seem plausible to, but i don't think many people suport my theory that if for some reason vig is not picked at 1#, 2#, then it won't be picked at all. Therefore, the chances of a vig lower in the draft (as low as me, as i already stated i miss the vig) are low.

Fixed

[Hoopla]

Who are your top vigilante suspects?
Soc and Fate. SC or Jack seem plausible to, but i don't think many people suport my theory that if for some reason vig is not picked at 1#, 2#, then it won't be picked at all. Therefore, the chances of a vig lower in the draft (as low as me, as i already stated i miss the vig) are low.

So basically everyone above you?

[Fate]

I've already answered your questions Hoopla.

The only reason I would even consider your plan is this:

If we had taken the long shot, and lynched Socrates over Pom yesterday (or let her claim or something) we would've been in a better position today. But the longshot isn't 50% this time, it is more like 25% (Jack, SC, Wolf, Fifi) at least from my POV (assuming Socrates is scum cop) for hitting the vig.

25% Hitting Vig vs.

Fate and The1fifi, depending on if the latter's claim is correct.

I'm having a hard time figuring out why it would hurt in the long run unless Socrates is town, something I'm still unsettled on.

Fate and The1fifi, depending on if the latter's claim is correct.

STILL UNSETTLED ON SOCRATES?

Also, I'd like to point out to the rest of town the

clear

inconsistencies in SC's thought process:

1. Claims VT for bomb. If he's telling the truth the bomb is among Socrates, myself, and Jack. He thinks it is

not

Jack.
2. Implies that both he and fifi are telling the truth about their claims
3. His suspects for the vig? Fifi, who he believed before, and myself, who, according to him, is more likely bomb. Why not Jack? If Jack is neither bomb, nor Vig, then what?

Also, "depending on if the latter's claim is correct." What does that even mean? We have no way of "verifying" his claim without losing. Lynch Fifi=VT="oh the vigs above-AUTO-LOSE.

Maybe he's deflecting from Jack. Post wise I've gotten town reads from Jack, but otherwise I can't think of what role he'd be.

Still, we need to lynch Socrates first.

[The1fifi]

@Hoopla : ...

[StrangerCoug]

2. Implies that both he and fifi are telling the truth about their claims

As I told Hoopla, point to where I'm doing this, please.

3. His suspects for the vig? Fifi, who he believed before, and myself, who, according to him, is more likely bomb.

As for my believing The1Fifi is vig, see my response for #2. As for my believing you being vig, I remember saying how you and Socrates is more likely bomb than Jack. I don't recall picking one of you over the other.

Why not Jack? If Jack is neither bomb, nor Vig, then what?

I haven't settled on Jack yet.

[Fate]

You're unsettled on a lot of things it seems, SC.

[StrangerCoug]

Conceded. Now respond to the rest of my defense.

[Fate]

2. Implies that both he and fifi are telling the truth about their claims

As I told Hoopla, point to where I'm doing this, please.

3. His suspects for the vig? Fifi, who he believed before, and myself, who, according to him, is more likely bomb.

As for my believing The1Fifi is vig, see my response for #2. As for my believing you being vig, I remember saying how you and Socrates is more likely bomb than Jack. I don't recall picking one of you over the other.

Why not Jack? If Jack is neither bomb, nor Vig, then what?

I haven't settled on Jack yet.

Meh, if it helps convince other Town, sure.

#2: That was the way it came off to me. The first reaction I had was "he believes Fifi's claim" Post #1073. You say Wolf can't be Vig if you're both telling the truth. If you're telling the truth, that has no bearing at all on Wolf being vig. If fifi's telling the truth, sure Wolf can be vig.

So if you suspect fifi for being the vig, (which=scum, from now on for the rest of the game), why don't you include thoughts on Wolf? And fifi trying to deflect from him?

#3 I recall you picking one over the other. You were hedging on believing Socrates, he claimed bomb after all right? You were one of the first to believe his "town gambit theory." I see no townie believing Socrates is town at this point in time. But if you do, then surely he must be bomb right?

You go: "Hmm Socrates explanation is gambit."
Sensible townie goes:"WHAT THE **** SOCRATES! YOU COST US A DEAD TOWNIE!"

[Fate]

EBWOP:

You go: "Hmm Socrates explanation is plausible" ***

[StrangerCoug]

So if you suspect fifi for being the vig, (which=scum, from now on for the rest of the game), why don't you include thoughts on Wolf? And fifi trying to deflect from him?

I simply haven't focused on wolframnhart very much.

#3 I recall you picking one over the other. You were hedging on believing Socrates, he claimed bomb after all right? You were one of the first to believe his "town gambit theory." I see no townie believing Socrates is town at this point in time. But if you do, then surely he must be bomb right?

You go: "Hmm Socrates explanation is gambit."
Sensible townie goes:"WHAT THE **** SOCRATES! YOU COST US A DEAD TOWNIE!"

Heh. So I did.

Screw it anyway. I'm hurting myself by leaving myself open on Socrates, and the "backfired gambit" reads more scum than town.

Unvote

if necessary

Vote: Socrates

[Jack]

You go: "Hmm Socrates explanation is gambit."
Sensible townie goes:"WHAT THE **** SOCRATES! YOU COST US A DEAD TOWNIE!"

Exactly...coug's reaction was very unnatural. His statement about "if we were both telling the truth" was weird as well. His arguments on this page seem designed to obscure that with dense/semantic argument. Example:

As for my believing The1Fifi is vig, see my response for #2. As for my believing you being vig, I remember saying how you and Socrates is more likely bomb than Jack. I don't recall picking one of you over the other.

[The1fifi]

I found more suspicious the fact that he quickly voted soc after being pressed by fate.

[Fate]

Yeah, this is all good material, and I'm a little worried that the scummiest player besides Socrates is voting Soc, makes me have pause and think about Hoopla's "playing into scum's hands" theory.

But the bottom line, from my POV is this:
I'm not scum with Socrates.
Scum would not have wanted the chance I'd take Vig, (if I were smarted I should've gone for it to either have it or to prove Socrates had it. Alas, I got greedy and wanted a "sure Power role" instead of vanilla so I stayed away from Cop/Vig).
We lynch Socrates.

[Ellibereth]

....
Quicklynch was the only way to win, now we're screwed.
Scum have the governer, I tried for it and came up blank. Someone above me on the list has it. Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay....

[Ellibereth]

Oh, and Soc being the vig should be a no brainer now.

[Ellibereth]

Anyway, I'm praying that the gov is wolf who may just have went inactive so quicklynch gogogogogogogogoooooooo

[Ellibereth]

Is that L-1? I want to hammer.

Unvote

I'll be here fast and furiously when someone places him back at L-1.