Open 199 - Friends, Enemies, and Enemies - OVER

[The Tracker]

Evil, if the conversation hadn't been stagnating then I wouldn't have bothered saying that. It's foolish to draw out a day with 'more discussion' when there is no more discussion to be had. Yeah, I've mostly been jumping on bandwagons but I find the wagon leaders had good points. Nothing wrong with agreeing, is there?

Oh, and as for saying there was no reason for me to hammer, consider the deadline was less than 24 hours away. Would you not agree a lynch period is better than no lynch? I really had no choice to start up a new conversation, I was damned either way.

[The Tracker]

Evil, if the conversation hadn't been stagnating then I wouldn't have bothered saying that. It's foolish to draw out a day with 'more discussion' when there is no more discussion to be had. Yeah, I've mostly been jumping on bandwagons but I find the wagon leaders had good points. Nothing wrong with agreeing, is there?

Oh, and as for those saying there was no reason for me to hammer, consider the deadline was less than 24 hours away. Would you not agree a lynch period is better than no lynch? I really had no choice to start up a new conversation, I was damned either way.

[yawetag]

Okay, the case against The Tracker.

I was just in another game with him, in which he was town, and he was much more actively trying to find scum.

I'm not a huge fan of meta.

2) His Flareonage vote was scummilicious:

This I can agree with.

Evil, if the conversation hadn't been stagnating then I wouldn't have bothered saying that. It's foolish to draw out a day with 'more discussion' when there is no more discussion to be had.

There's almost always time for discussion, especially when, at that time, we were still 8 days from deadline (You voted Feb 2, deadline was Feb 10). Your vote put him at L-1, which is a very dangerous place to be.

Yeah, I've mostly been jumping on bandwagons but I find the wagon leaders had good points. Nothing wrong with agreeing, is there?

There's never anything wrong with agreeing. The problem is that you didn't agree in the flare vote. In fact, you gave two other reasons for the vote, both of which were basic responses with no backup. For CMaR, you had little discussion. I understand you were busy on double shifts, but there was time before that to make some arguments.

With that said, there is one thing that

can

be said about you: You were just as scummy against a werewolf AND a mafia. Unless you bussed one of your partners, you were acting the same for both factions.

[evilsnail]

Evil, if the conversation hadn't been stagnating then I wouldn't have bothered saying that. It's foolish to draw out a day with 'more discussion' when there is no more discussion to be had. Yeah, I've mostly been jumping on bandwagons but I find the wagon leaders had good points. Nothing wrong with agreeing, is there?

Well no, but you haven't really been contributing much yourself.

Oh, and as for saying there was no reason for me to hammer, consider the deadline was less than 24 hours away. Would you not agree a lynch period is better than no lynch? I really had no choice to start up a new conversation, I was damned either way.

The point about the deadline is fair enough. My main problem with the hammer vote was that you were basically already making excuses for the vote in that post. The day having been long enough and your pre-emptive defense. I don't believe that this is a pro-town player who agrees Flare looks like scum. It feels like someone who knows or at least has a very good idea of Flare's alignment.

[yawetag]

cdubs, what do you have to say? I know you're active on the site in other games. I'd love to hear your opinion on the game.

[evilsnail]

I'm not a huge fan of meta.

Fair enough. I usually steer away from it, but I was just in a game with him and his play and the tone of his posts seem noticeably different. And my main point here is that he's not done any scumhunting. Also, I can easily see both of his real votes as bussing.

[Shrinehme]

Sorry, I had limited access for a bit, but I should be alright now.

To compensate, I did one of these vote count coloring things. Never did it before. Let's see what we come up with.

Final Count Day 1

2. The Tracker (1): Shrinehme
4.

flareonage

(6): evilsnail,

xRECKONERx

,

danakillsu

,

RayFrost

,

Fate

, The Tracker
6.

danakillsu

(1):

SaintKerrigan

9.

xRECKONERx

(3):

Flareonage

, yawetag, cdubs

Final Count Day 2

5.

CryMeARiver

(5):

danakillsu

, evilsnail,

xRECKONERx

, Shrinehme, The Tracker
8.

mavsfan41

(1): yawetag,

CryMeARiver

What we can gather from this:
Tracker hammered both scum! However, remember the conditions for CMAR in particular; Tracker hammered him on the last day, when deadline was coming up, after having been lurking intensely prior. If he were CMAR's buddy, it seems silly for him to jump in and hammer when he could have stalled until the deadline [under the lurking guise!] and let a No Lynch go, seeing only the death of mavsfan be. Soooo I don't think he's a Werewolf.

I think EvilSnail is Town. Very town. It's highly disadvantageous and risky for scum to bus one other in this game, and he was on top of both scum wagons.

Cdubs lurking selectively during Day 2, when CMAR was under heavy suspicion, gives me the impression that they're the Wolf buddies. Buddies want to avoid giving commitment for or against a partner. Lurking is a good way to go about that. He also lurked a bit on Day 1, but not to the same extent... just enough to park his vote on Reckoner and disappear.

Then there's Yawetag, who not only argued very strongly against CMAR's wagon, insisting that offing only mavsfan was the way to go, but also tunneled in on Reckoner for most of that Day.

...

Oh, wait. As I started typing this I realized that I made a mistake and the final wagon is actually this.

Actual Final Count Day 1

2. The Tracker (1): Shrinehme
4.

flareonage

(7): evilsnail,

xRECKONERx

,

danakillsu

,

RayFrost

,

Fate

, The Tracker, yawetag
9.

xRECKONERx

(3):

Flareonage

, cdubs,

SaintKerrigan

I'm going to leave the above there so that I don't feel like I've wasted my time. And maybe it will give you guys insight into my thought processes. Or something.

... Well, the only real difference is that Yawetag did get his vote in on Flareonage and hadn't tunneled on Reckoner as much as I'd thought. And Tracker didn't hammer both scum. Just one.

I'm pretty sure EvilSnail is Town, though. He's the only one I would strongly object to lynching.

[yawetag]

I'm pretty sure EvilSnail is Town, though. He's the only one I would strongly object to lynching.

With that said, do you have any opinions on any other players?

[The Tracker]

Alright, I would be in full support of a yawetag lynch today, and I has a case for it. *Holds up case*

First of all, in the first few posts he got overly defensive when Reckoner voted him. Not just over the vote, but he was extremely defensive period over the reasons.

Then of course in day two he was a big fan of either lynching mavsfan or not lynching that day at all. Sure, he put an FoS on CMAR, but mainly he was basically saying that since mavsfan was going to be modkilled we'd lose the game. Now I won't say this didn't make sense on some level, but seriously, the vote was the only weapon the Town had, and then there's the possibility scum and wolfs could kill each other. Lynching would not have been a bad play at all, and it seems he was just trying to defend a wolfbuddy.

Looking at the votes interests me as well. The Day 1 vote was an easy lynch for a wolf to hide on since basically the Town all agreed Flareon was an excellent lynch. But Day 2 really piques my interest since both CMAR and Yawetag were in favor of a mavsfan lynch. In fact, the ONLY ones in favor of a mavsfan lynch. How interesting...

But most damning (IMHO) is this jewel right here:

To be honest, I think CMaR is our best target for today, and I've said it myself:

With that said,

FoS: CryMeARiver

. Your argument against DKU is shaky, and SK's defense of flare on Day 1 is hard to ignore. I know it's hard, but can you defend SK's actions?

If we weren't in the situation with mavs, I would have already put my vote on him. Even his defense since taking over hasn't changed my opinion.

Okay, so if you think CMAR is the best lynch, why did you not vote for him? You say he's the best lynch on the menu, and yet you continue to advocate mavsfan being lynched for a mathematical reason that we 'may lose.' Looks like wolfbuddies to me. In fact, I convinced myself.

vote: yawetag

[yawetag]

vote: yawetag

Not a good idea with mafia and wolves around. You know it only takes three votes to get me eliminated, right?

Please unvote, then I'll give my case. If you're not convinced afterward, feel free to put the vote back on.

[yawetag]

I also ask that people not hammer until I get a chance to defend myself. I'm busy until noon, then sleeping until around 11pm tonight. I will have a defense written by the time you wake up tomorrow (unless you're on late tonight).

[The Tracker]

vote: yawetag

Not a good idea with mafia and wolves around. You know it only takes three votes to get me eliminated, right?

Please unvote, then I'll give my case. If you're not convinced afterward, feel free to put the vote back on.

Fair enough.

unvote: yawetag

[evilsnail]

I don't think we need to be too concerned about voting. It's pretty hard for scum from different teams to coordinate. That said, there's a little bit of a risk and there's no danger in being cautious.

@The Tracker: Even though bussing is not a viable strategy for scum, I don't see yawetag-wolf trying to save his buddy

that

obviously. I mean, even if you hadn't hammered, CMAR would have been lynched today. In addition, yawetag was voting xReck D1 with Flare, which I don't see scumbuddies doing, especially not when one of them is about to be lynched. I'm pretty sure yawetag is town.

[The Tracker]

I'm not saying him and Flare are scumbuddies. I'm saying there's reasonable suspicion enough to say him and CMAR are wolfbuddies, and you can't deny that point. If there hadn't been a hammer, we would still be behind on our lynches, especially since mavsfan was Town. In fact, the way yawetag was going after mavs so much is almost as if he knew his alignment somewhat.

[evilsnail]

Although I definitely agree that yawetag was wrong about the CMAR lynch yesterday, I do think he was sincere in his beliefs. So I'm not sure your evidence is as strong as you make it out to be.

[Shrinehme]

I'm pretty sure EvilSnail is Town, though. He's the only one I would strongly object to lynching.

With that said, do you have any opinions on any other players?

I think Tracker is the other Town.

I don't know which scum I'd place you or Cdubs, but I don't think it explicitly matters either. Lying either scum yields the same result.

[The Tracker]

Although I definitely agree that yawetag was wrong about the CMAR lynch yesterday, I do think he was sincere in his beliefs. So I'm not sure your evidence is as strong as you make it out to be.

In my opinion, I found it pretty convincing and whether or not someone's sincere comes down to opinion.

By the way shrine, what made you suddenly decide I was Town? The last two days you were after me pretty hard.

[Shrinehme]

Noted that Cdubs hasn't posted.

So that kind of waters the lurking accusation a bit, but it gives us a new dilemma... If lynch someone else, he gets modkilled, and if we didn't hit both scum then and there, we lose... with at most 2 Townies entering the Night Phase. It limits our options.

Though... it's sad that this whole game kind of hinges on his alignment at this point. If he's Town, and doesn't post, we essentially lose [barring one teeny chance: both scum hit each other overnight].

Thoughts?

[Shrinehme]

By the way shrine, what made you suddenly decide I was Town? The last two days you were after me pretty hard.

I just think Yawetag and Cdubs are more likely scum. In my book, there's almost no chance that you're a Wolf [see post 331], and while it's possible that you bussed Flareonage, I think Cdubs [who parked his vote on Reckoner and avoided the wagon] or Yawetag [who jumped on the wagon only at the final second] are more likely to be his buddies.

[evilsnail]

I think yawetag would be a terrible lynch today. I'd much rather lynch The Tracker.

Cdubs is worrying me a little bit. He doesn't strike me as town or anything, but him getting modkilled could basically take this game out of our hands.

[evilsnail]

Okay, I've been thinking about this game a lot. I'll first do a post about the possibility of cdubs getting modkilled and then I'll do one on who I think is the scumz and why.

First, note that

the deadline is in four days

and, in the ideal situation, cdubs posts before then and doesn't limit our options.

@MOD:

Is it possible to get a prod on cdubs? I looked over the rules, but it wasn't clear to me whether prods are done in BaM games. Probably not, but I figured I'd give it a shot.

Now, we need to allow for the possibility that cdubs doesn't post. There are two logical possibilities: cdubs is scum or cdubs is town.

cdubs is town

- If we No-Lynch, the only way we can win is a mutual cross-kill. Now, if the remaining mason claims (something I think is a good idea anyway, particularly if the breadcrumbs are convincing, because we're sort of at LyLo and we can use any info we can get), it should be pretty clear who's scum, creating a Prisoner's Dilemma. This sort of hinges on the idea that it's obvious that I'm town.
- If we lynch town, we're in a Prisoner's Dilemma. Again, for this situation it would be good if the remaining mason claims, because this should ensure that both scum know who the other scum is.
- If we lynch scum, we're screwed. This hands the win to the other scum.

cdubs is scum

- If we No Lynch, the remaining scum NKs one of the remaining players and we're at LyLo tomorrow. This is a pretty good situation for us.
- If we lynch town, we lose.
- If we lynch scum, we win.

To summarise, if cdubs is going to get modkilled, No Lynch is a safe strategy, giving us a chance at winning regardless of cdubs's alignment. We then have a 50% chance at LyLo Day 4 and a 50% chance at a near-Prisoner's Dilemma. Lynching is a risky strategy, giving us a 50% chance of losing right away, a 25% chance at Prisoner's Dilemma and a 25% chance of winning.

On the basis of this, I think that, if it seriously looks like cdubs is going to get modkilled, a No Lynch might be best.

[yawetag]

First of all, in the first few posts he got overly defensive when Reckoner voted him. Not just over the vote, but he was extremely defensive period over the reasons.

My defensive position was due to the fact that he

wasn't

giving any reasons.

-------------------------

Then of course in day two he was a big fan of either lynching mavsfan or not lynching that day at all. Sure, he put an FoS on CMAR, but mainly he was basically saying that since mavsfan was going to be modkilled we'd lose the game.

I

never

said that we would lose the game by lynching mavs. What I said was that lynching mavs was a

bad idea

, and gave my reasons why. In fact this quote:

It's a good thing we lynched a werewolf yesterday. Otherwise we'd have lost automatically on a mislynch.

is EXACTLY this scenario:

Here are the numbers assuming only townies are killed and lynched (in town/maf/wolves order) if we lynch someone other than mavs:
After D2 - 4/1/2
After N2 - 2/1/2

If CMaR had been a townie and not a wolf, we would be in the 2/1/2 situation. A mislynch would take us into the night with:

After D3 - 1/1/2

that... a losing situation, as evils says.

-------------------------

Now I won't say this didn't make sense on some level, but seriously, the vote was the only weapon the Town had, and then there's the possibility scum and wolfs could kill each other. Lynching would not have been a bad play at all, and it seems he was just trying to defend a wolfbuddy.

Now do you think I was defending a wolfbuddy? I just showed proof that I was worried that an all-town death yesterday would have brought us to a MYLO situation today.

-------------------------

But Day 2 really piques my interest since both CMAR and Yawetag were in favor of a mavsfan lynch. In fact, the ONLY ones in favor of a mavsfan lynch. How interesting...

This is where you're wrong. I

was

in favor of a CMaR lynch (you posted the quote yourself), but not given the modkill situation we were in.

-------------------------

Okay, so if you think CMAR is the best lynch, why did you not vote for him? You say he's the best lynch on the menu, and yet you continue to advocate mavsfan being lynched for a mathematical reason that we 'may lose.' Looks like wolfbuddies to me. In fact, I convinced myself.

My vote was on mavs simply because my scenarios showed lynching any one on top of mavs was a dangerous bridge to cross, UNLESS we had enough evidence to prove the person was scum. There was never strong enough evidence to prove CMaR was scum, so I wasn't taking the chance.

-------------------------

With all of that said, lynching me is probably the worst idea the town could do:

I trust Cat the most.

yawetag is Cat, btw

I trust evilsnail and yawetag.

I Trust yawetag

Although I definitely agree that yawetag was wrong about the CMAR lynch yesterday, I do think he was sincere in his beliefs. So I'm not sure your evidence is as strong as you make it out to be.

I think yawetag would be a terrible lynch today.

In that list, we've got 2 people that died as town or masons, one that's currently AWOL, and someone else that's alive. I think having four people explicitly state that I'm trusted in some capacity says a lot.

Did you even read the discussion on Day 2? You were gone for 7 days, and there was A LOT of discussion and scenarios during the week. I may be wrong, but you came in, realized the vote count and hammered. There was no reasoning with the vote, no discussion, NOTHING.

-------------------------

Since we're in a MYLO situation, and we have a player who appears to have flaked, wouldn't it be smart for the last mason to claim? With a claimed mason (and no counterclaim), the mason can lead the lynch. If there is a counterclaim, it leaves a 50% chance for finding scum.

Without the claim to lower our chances, we're in a crappy situation that, and I hate to say it

again

today, makes a NL a better situation.

If we decide to no lynch, we have the following situations:
1. cdubs town / no lynch: 2/1/1 at night - 60% chance of occuring
2. cdubs scum / no lynch: 3/1/0 or 3/0/1 at night - 40% chance of occuring

In Situation #1, the only way town could win is if scum cross-killed, which will only happen 11% of the time. With the 60% chance of cdubs turning town AND the 11% chance of cross-fire occuring, there's a 6.7% chance of it occuring.

In Situation #2, which will happen 40% of the time, town will live to D4, finding itself in a LYLO situation (2/1/0 or 2/0/1). The LYLO gives the town a 33% chance to win (3 people left; 1 is scum). With the 40% chance of cdubs turning scum AND the 33% chance of winning in D4, there's a 13.33% chance of town winning this way.

In essence, the town will have a 20% chance of town winning if we no lynch and let cdubs get modkilled.

Now, if we do lynch someone, there are 4 situations that can occur (numbering continued for ease of reading):
3. cdubs town / lynch town: 1/1/1 at night - 30% chance of occuring
4. cdubs town / lynch scum: 2/0/1 or 2/1/0 at night - 30% chance of occuring
5. cdubs scum / lynch town: 2/0/1 or 2/1/0 at night - 30% chance of occuring
6. cdubs scum / lynch scum: 3/0/0 at night - 10% chance of occuring

I will leave Situation #3 for last, as it

can

be a bit confusing (and

I'd like Moderator input

).

In Situation #4 and #5 (which are basically the same -- a townie and a scum die), the town will lose when the last-surviving scum kills at night. This will happen a total of 60% of the time.

In Situation #6, town wins immediately. This will happen 10% of the time.

Now, for Situation #3 (which will happen 30% of the time). According to the role PMs on Post #1, scum can only win if all the townies AND all the other scum are dead. If I'm reading it correctly, in a 1/1/1 situation at night, it

is

possible for a crossfire to let the town win. Because of this, there is a 25% chance of town winning if this situation occurs. With the 30% chance of lynching two townies AND the 25% chance of winning by scum crossfire, there's a 7.5% chance of town winning in this situation.

In essence, the town will have a 17.5% chance of town winning if we lynch somebody and let cdubs get modkilled.

I also ran a check if Mason claimed when we decided to lynch (there would be no reason for a claim if we're NL), and I'd be glad to show the work if you care. Essentially, with a mason claim, we lose the crossfire chance in Situation #3, as it would be smart for scum to attack the known townie instead of a random shot. Because of this, the town could only win with a scum lynch and scum modkill, which came out to 16.67% of the time.

With these numbers, (20% with no lynch, 17.5% lynch, 16.67% mason claim), it's my idea that we

no lynch

today. Obviously, lynching cdubs is the same as a no lynch, unless cdubs returns.

If someone is voted on and they're Mason, they should claim, despite my calculations. The reason I say that is simple: there's a chance a counterclaim could come out and the town only has to choose between two "masons," giving them a 50% chance to find scum (instead of 40%).

Mod:

Am I correct in that a 1/1/1 situation at night can lead to a town win, using my crossfire example? Also, if we're in a 1/1/1 situation and maf and wolf targets the townie,

[evilsnail]

Wait. You're not the mason? I thought you were. That's why I've been defending you. I was trying to steer pressure away from you.

[yawetag]

On the basis of this, I think that, if it seriously looks like cdubs is going to get modkilled, a No Lynch might be best.

Wow. We agree. I spent the last hour typing my math (which looks very close to your's) hoping to convince

you

of the no lynch. It looks like I didn't have to.

As far as a Mason claim, if it's agreed on, we have to have it done quickly (within 24 hours). If there's breadcrumbs around, the mason shouldn't mention it in their original "I'm Mason" post -- give a chance for a counterclaim.

Everyone, what are your thoughts on a Mason claim? I haven't gone over every possible situation, but the fact that maf and wolf knows they can't kill the Mason at night without chancing Prisoner's Gambit makes it a bit better. I know my math shows it being the worst scenario of the three, but I didn't factor in the gambit ending.

[evilsnail]

Yeah, I still think I was right yesterday (though I might have been a bit dickish about it, my apologies), but I agree that No Lynch is a safe strategy today. We can save the D2 discussion for MD, including why today is different.