Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Porkens]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 9

Pomegranate

- 7 - Porkens, Faraday, Socrates, Devotress, Jack, Farside, DocPotter - (L-2)

Socrates

- 3 - StrangerCoug, Fate, Hoopla - (L-6)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Ellibereth, Pomegranate, The1fifi, TonyMontana, wolframnhart

Porkens 1 liners and promising to read is on my scum list as well.
I may understand why eli may think faraday is town but if I'm correct on the reasoning I would say it's WIFOM. I'll let eli say his reasoning though.

I NEVER promised to read.

[farside22]

Porkens 1 liners and promising to read is on my scum list as well.
I may understand why eli may think faraday is town but if I'm correct on the reasoning I would say it's WIFOM. I'll let eli say his reasoning though.

I NEVER promised to read.

Sorry it was you stating that Pom was saying she needed to reread. My mistake.

[Porkens]

No worries, easy mistake

[Ellibereth]

Bouncy if you're still reading, NOW do you see why you should've role coped Socrates or myself?

-_-'

Hanlon's Razor
^^^ Very relevant yesterday.

Porkens and Ckd are both town. I think I pointed out why in my iso somewhere, too lazy to look.
[/url]

[StrangerCoug]

@Everyone : i'd like to hear your toughts on tony montana. Consider this as really important please.

TM needs to post more.

Scum could have an empowerer.

This is your comment on the day??

fos:devotress

Still trying to decide what I think of the going after top power slots now re the scum vig, which is what this day is about.

Only scum think.

FOS: Devotress

This is a weak FoS reason.

FoS: Fate.

ALL EYES ON SOCRATES

I am the cop, not the vig. Why use a gun when a badge will do?

Pomegranate is scum, BY INVESTIGATION.

(I investigated Hoopla night 1: Town)

vote:Pomegranate

Unvote: Socrates

Hanging on to voting Pomegranate until I see a vote count and, if beneficial, a claim.

[Fate]

This is a weak FoS reason.

FoS: Fate.

This is a weaker FoS reason.

FoS: SC.

[farside22]

I think all those saying they are waiting for Pom and missing the fact she is posting elsewhere is just sad.
She is scum. If soc is lying he is scum. If he's telling the truth he is most likely dead.
You people are driving me to drink.

[StrangerCoug]

This is a weak FoS reason.

FoS: Fate.

This is a weaker FoS reason.

FoS: SC.

What are we doing, fighting for last place? Town is supposed to think too.

[Socrates]

Socrates, what was your reasoning for going for cop instead of vig? Why did you investigate me on Night 1?

I hold no delusions about my ability to scumhunt, and I would probably do more bad then good with a vig shot, while I can still catch scum with the cop ability. I was kinda hoping that people would all just assume that I was going to take vig and not draft it and there would be no vig in the game at all (probably the best situation of all, in my eyes).

I sent in an investigation on you after we got into that big argument about number analysis as I thought you were scum trying to push an agenda to try and lynch the top town power roles.

I probably should have changed my investigation to Pomegranate later in the day, but if you remember, I didn't get back from my V/LA until something like 12 hours before deadline, and didn't think to do so.

[The1fifi]

This is a weak FoS reason.

FoS: Fate.

This is a weaker FoS reason.

FoS: SC.

Now this was funny!

[Fate]

Fate is glad to have pleased scum.

[Hoopla]

Group 1:

Socrates

Group 2:

Fate

Group 3:

Jack

Group 4:

StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart

Group 5:

Devotress, Porkens, DocPotter

Group 6:

Ellibereth, Hoopla, TonyMontana

Group 7:

Farside, curiouskarmadog,

Pomegranate

, Faraday

Here are the updated groups. There are only 7 left, and there is 5 scum hiding in there somewhere. If Pom is scum like Socrates claims, it gives A LOT of town points to Farside, CKD and Faraday.

Doubling up (and to a lesser degree tripling) is still a viable prospect, but I do not expect more than one double up. It is only Day 3, and already 7 of the top 10 draft picks have been made to claim, or have been killed. It seems obvious to me that scum taking such liberal risks at the top ranked players means they aren't afraid of the bomb. It is highly likely that scum have the bomb, and I think it is probably Fate.

Earlier in the game, Fate refused to claim;

I'll tell you what scum is really doing, on the other hand, and that is bandwagoning in full force to get the #2 PR to claim.

And guess what: No.

Initially I considered this a town tell, as Fate wasn't cracking under pressure - something scum would likelier do in this situation than town. But it makes more logical sense that he is the bomb, and knew his claim wouldn't save him (as he has no town value).

Farfetched conspiracy theory; Socrates is scum vig claiming Cop to get an easy lynch - and another double kill at night (Fate is bomb giving Socrates the knowledge he can shoot anywhere safely). Although, this will prove Socrates guilty, a scum governor could stop that lynch and put us in to lylo with 4 scum alive.

Actually, I'm starting to get very worried about the prospect of a scum governor combined with the power of double kills.

~~

Some numbers; if scum went 1-1-1-1-1 with their picks, it means everyone in the last group is town due to a scum being there. It then means there are 4 scum left in 6 groups, giving the current singulars a 66% chance of being scum.

I'm starting to think this is unlikely and scum have doubled up once. 1-1-1-2 is the most logical option. It doesn't expose them like the first option does, but then it doesn't completely destroy their chances of getting good roles (like 1-1-3 or others do).

If this is true, it means one of Farside, Faraday, CKD still have a chance of being scum, but there are still 3 other groups where the double up could be. The odds for the singulars being scum is a lot more complicated to predict, because it depends where the double up is. If it's in Pom's group, the odds are 50% (due to 3 scum being left in 6

different

groups). If the double up is elsewhere, it is slightly higher (but I'm too lazy to work it out).

~~

However, we're getting to a point in the game where number analysis must come second to role information. We need to find the vig asap, and numbers provide not much insight into this process.

If you're the vig, claim now so the town can direct your kill

. It is too risky hoping it isn't in the hands of scum. If there is no claim, I am assuming the vig is scum, and all of our efforts should be going into finding the vig.

~~

If the vig is scum, it makes the town rolecop a detrimental role to scum, and I want to now look at bouncy's wagon as I definitely think scum were trying to push it through after the claim.

Ellibereth gets a lot of town points for his stance against the bouncy lynch. He could have quite easily fabricated a reason (there were plenty floating around) to get on the wagon and finish the kill. I doubt he would have gathered suspicion for doing it either, which makes staying off the wagon a far more likelier town play.

After a spate of unvotes on the bouncy wagon, it is Fate who attacks hard at bouncy causing the wagon to be pushed through to lynch. Myself and Farside were also proponents of this, but knowing I am town (and semi-confirmed) and farside is likely town (due to being in a large group with scum-pom) it makes it highly likely Fate is scum pushing this wagon.

I encourage everyone else to reread that passage of play - because it is definitely in scum's interest to get the role-cop lynched, and Fate was the one trying hardest at this. I'm also wary of people of the people on the bouncy wagon

before

the claim, who didn't offer anything after the claim but stayed on anyway (StrangerCoug and wolf). At least one of those two will be scum, I can't see any way they're both town.

Scum list:

Pom
Fate/Jack
StrangerCoug/wolf
TonyMontana/Porkens (lurkers in the 5th and 6th group)

Town list:

Ellibereth
Farside
Faraday

[Fate]

You were doing so well, Hoopla, but then you came up with what you yourself admit is a conspiracy theory.

There are other roles besides bomb that benefit from not claiming, it is shame you can't think of them.'

The vig is scum, and is either Jack, SC, Wolf, or f1f1. I also highly doubt this elaborate plan of Claim cop -> mislynch -> Governor on Socrates -> Lylo theory. That would require some excellent coordination and planning.

[Hoopla]

You were doing so well, Hoopla, but then you came up with what you yourself admit is a conspiracy theory.

There are other roles besides bomb that benefit from not claiming, it is shame you can't think of them.'

The vig is scum, and is either Jack, SC, Wolf, or f1f1. I also highly doubt this elaborate plan of Claim cop -> mislynch -> Governor on Socrates -> Lylo theory. That would require some excellent coordination and planning.

It was a conspiracy theory - I never expected it to hold water. Also, scum governor is very potent. How does claim cop, get guilty mislynch, governor socrates require a lot of coordination? All they need is the cop claim to fly.

What if Socrates is vig, and scum picked up cop somewhere else, along with governor?

Socrates claim cop because he is going to die anyway --> get mislynch ---> get double kills at night ---> get lynched (but governed) ---> get two more kills - that takes the game to 6 town:5 scum. Then 5:4 with a Socrates lynch/NK.

How is the town supposed to win that when we need to lynch 4 times correctly in a row?

~~

What do you think about the rest of my thoughts? It seems weird you only comment on the conspiracy theory as opposed to anything else. It's like you're picking the simplest thing to go for to discredit my entire post.

[Fate]

I wasn't trying to discredit your entire post, sorry.

Things I agree with:
-We need to find vig ASAP tommorow
-Numbers theory is looking better with reduced number of groups
-100% agree with your town list

Disagree:
-Scum picked up Cop, Governor, AND vig. What the hell did town get, tracker/watcher/neigborizer/doctor/etc.? I'd be surprised if no town went for at least one "scum" role to see if it was in play/block it
-Socrates/Fate team theory: I don't think scum would be afraid to shoot the top of the draft order. Worst thing that could happen is the person who sent in the kill (vanilla scum, assuredly) dies and then they don't have to worry about bomb later on.

My theory:
-We don't have a doctor and scum doesn't have an empowerer. They wouldn't want a blocked NK (I would assume doc would protect me or Socrates as prob cops N1), and they took a chance on RayFrost and he was killed N2.
-Socrates actually is cop, regardless of alignment, either bussing/nailing Pom, and dies tonight
-Socrates Vig theory getting off one more doublekill and mislynch is probable as well, but his behavior hasn't been that scummy.

What this means:
-Lynch Pom
-Pending night actions
-D4

[Fate]

The "Socrates actually is cop" line should read as him dying tonight as town and being lynched tomorrow.

Reading it a 2nd time, the scariness of your theory begins to set it, as offchance as it may be. Let's say it is true: Where do we go from here? Lynch Socrates, not Pom?

[Fate]

Actually, I forgot about role blocker. They might let Socrates live to throw off the town tomorrow.

Also the "all that has to happen is for the cop claim to fly" means that they have to be sure Cop won't counterclaim. Which means either Socrates is cop, or scum got cop later on.

Still think the former is more likely, based on Socrates posts.

Hopefully you're still around so we can have more neighbor like chats. This may seem like a weird question because you're basically confirmed town now: but why didn't you speculate me as the scum vig?

[Hoopla]

The "Socrates actually is cop" line should read as him dying tonight as town and being lynched tomorrow.

Reading it a 2nd time, the scariness of your theory begins to set it, as offchance as it may be. Let's say it is true: Where do we go from here? Lynch Socrates, not Pom?

It's a scary prospect yes - but I don't think it's likely, as it depends on scum having vig, cop and governor, but it's one town should be aware of. The percentage play is still to lynch Pomegranate - we can't not lynch a cop guilty result over a potentially damaging but obscure scum gambit.

Hopefully you're still around so we can have more neighbor like chats. This may seem like a weird question because you're basically confirmed town now: but why didn't you speculate me as the scum vig?

Because of the way you reacted to your wagon to L-1. If you were scum vig, I don't think you'd be so calm. And I don't think scum would risk starting and pushing a massive wagon on their most damaging role, because there is no chance that wagon was all town. I'm not discounting the possibility of you being [other] scum, but I doubt you're the scum vig.

[Fate]

Fate - 10 - Hoopla, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Devotress, The1fifi, Socrates, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-2)

My wagon, for the record. It was town started all the way up to bouncy, with three scummy people sandwiched there (Porkens, Devotress, fifi), then Socrates, then town to L-1.

Why are we waiting for Pom again? Letting scum talk before they die just messes things up. She could lie about the role she went for, trying to mess with town's head (i.e. I went for ____ and failed so town has that role) to create WIFOM.

I'm all for hammering in the morning after I go to bed.

[Fate]

Last thought: If Socrates is town, and I'm town, Jack is 80-90% scum. Explains why he went so far to discredit the number theory (through math of his own), and tried to shed doubt on Hoopla as "scum trying to mislead town with her numbers."

I also think he's the scum vig based off the draft, so he's definitely a higher priority than Wolf tommorow.

[The1fifi]

Well, i agree with fate. Not sure if pom is at l-1, but not actually worried

vote Pom

[The1fifi]

she didn't post till now, and i don't think she will.

[Fate]

Jack hasn't posted for awhile, hammer on the off chance he didn't action?

:evilgrin:?

[The1fifi]

If he is scum, go for it!

[Fate]

Meh, I'll sleep on it. Days only been up 24 hours or so I think, might as well let people check in tomorrow and action if they haven't.