Mini 912 - Little Golden Mafia (OVER)


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Post Post #225 (ISO) » Fri Feb 12, 2010 5:23 pm

Post by Phlight »

lobstermania wrote:
dramonic wrote:Quid is an equivalent to WTF, but polite.
And it confuses me because mason is a pr. It's weird for scum to leave a pr alive.
But both of the night kills were power roles. Better for them to leave someone alive who still has suspicion on them.
Also, no one has brought up the two night kills. Is it too early to consider it?
Personally, in order of likelihood

1) A vig is likely.
2) Kunkstar hiding behind B&B as wifom.
3) Two scumgroups

Not enough information yet to really discount any of those.

VOTE COUNT:


dramonic (0) -
lobstermania (0) -
MacavityLock (0) -
peanutman (0) -
Phlight (3) - Trumpet of Doom, dramonic, StrangerCoug
StrangerCoug (0) -
totallynotmafia (0) -
Trumpet of Doom (1) - Phlight
Wolframnhart (0) -

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
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Post Post #226 (ISO) » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:53 am

Post by peanutman »

Looking at the flavour might give us a better idea. Kunkstar was put to sleep while B&B was run over. If he was hiding behind B&B, wouldn't he have been run over as well (or died in a similar fashion)? The fact that he was put to sleep instead seems to indicate a NK from a different source. Therefore, I wouldn't consider Phlight's 2nd option as very likely.
ToD wrote:Uh... what? If I'm scum, wouldn't it be better for me not to be on the wagon, so that when it hits a townie, I can say, "hey, I knew that was a bad wagon?" (Yes, I know that's WIFOM... what would you expect in a response to a statement like that?)
IMO, scum usually try to hide amongst the masses when it comes to voting, rather than stand out. So if you're scum, it would be advantageous to throw your vote out near the end with others. You contribute to the mislynch without having to stray from the pack.
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Post Post #227 (ISO) » Sat Feb 13, 2010 5:41 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Mod: Could we have a votecount?


Absolutely not! Especially not at the top of the page! :P
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Post Post #228 (ISO) » Sat Feb 13, 2010 7:09 am

Post by dramonic »

choice 3 seems the most likely.
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Post Post #229 (ISO) » Sat Feb 13, 2010 12:11 pm

Post by totallynotmafia »

Vote: Phlight


The hypoclaiming was extremely suspicious, but the fact that he hasn't defended it is even worse. If he was town and it was something that would actually benefit town he would have been able to do this.

My theory is that he probably discussed this with his scum-buddies last night, as a way of claiming an investigative role without actually claiming (so he could later say if counterclaimed "it was just a hypoclaim"). When the mod first put up kunk's and B&B's deaths they were just listed as town, and so Phlight may have taken this as that they were vanillas and hoped there wouldn't be a tracker in the game. I took the vote after the tracker hypoclaim to be implying that the track was true, but after the mod updated the nightkill post it screwed his plan completely. Then of course there's the potential for rolefishing of the hypoclaim push, which is an added bonus.

If I'm right I wouldn't rule out Trumpet of Doom either, bussing a scumbuddy with the claimed track would be a smart move, as it then confirms Phlight as tracker for the rest of the game.

I've also been suspicious of some of the people who haven't really contributed much (Macavity, lobster, wolf, dramonic) so I looked at them all in ISO, and the one who came off as most likely to be scum is dramonic. The only thing he's contributed really is votes on bandwagons.
FOS dramonic

StrangerCoug wrote:If I said that we know each other to be town and we actually don't, I'm effed. If I'm scum that fakeclaimed my buddy to be my mason, I'm effed. I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but I'm not as idiotic as Phlight portrays me.
Well it was DS who claimed mason, not you, so if you were scum you really had no choice but to go along with it. I'm by no means ruling out the possibility you could be scum by the way, I think that would be stupid, but like I said the claim is good and I disagree with Phlight when he said:
Phlight wrote:Oh, and also: you're not a confirmable role until you're dead.


SC can be confirmed while he's still alive if his mason partner is Nightkilled and comes up as citymouse.

I think peanutman is right about Kunk's death, the two different flavours suggest two seperate kills. The "ran over" flavour piqued my interest because on the cover of country mouse and city mouse they are both in a car, this doesn't necessarily mean anything because there are other stories about vehicles but it's just something that I think is worth pointing out.
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Post Post #230 (ISO) » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:50 pm

Post by MacavityLock »

Phlight wrote:I'm more interested in your opinions on my case, other than your disapproval of when I posted it.
Actually, I think your case isn't bad, and just based on Day 1, I think ToD probably would have been my top suspect. But I also think that your case is "tainted" by the fact that you tried to shortcut your way to his lynch with the hypoclaim-guilty.

You really do need to answer what you were trying to get from the hypo-claim. How do you know we even have a cop in this game? And as far as I can tell, hypo-ing on the other two roles doesn't help clear people, does it? I guess it can confirm claims later on, but it's really hairy. The more I think about it, the more it looks like a lot of rolefishing.

Phlight, it's time for you to claim.

----

Usually, hiders die if they try to hid behind scum, right?

I'd say that my order of likelihood for the two deaths is: Hiding behind BaB, hiding behind scum, 2 scumgroups, vig. The only reason hiding behind BaB is at the top is book names. Seems to make sense that the shy little kitten would hide behind the curious one, right? I really don't think we can draw any conclusions though. Too many legitimate possibilities.
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Post Post #231 (ISO) » Sun Feb 14, 2010 5:16 pm

Post by Phlight »

Little Duck. No powers other than my voice and my vote. I'll make this post assuming 'Lock hammers me, because nothing about a vanilla claim warrants a wagon ending.

Hypoclaim is because I genuinely believe (and still do) that it helps town. I hypoclaimed the way I did more-or-less to stir up discussion, persuade more people to hypoclaim, and possibly get myself night-killed (which is something townies should strive to do. And yeah, the tracker flipping during the day flipped me up - I'd assumed that there was some theme role that was causing players to come up noreveal.

You should massclaim tomorrow (preferably crypto, since RBT's ruleset doesn't disallow that). I'm pretty sure that there are at least two scum among [dramonic, StrangerCoug, Trumpet of Doom]. The third's probably a lurker. You can't afford to go easy on lurkers in this game; make sure the mod is prodding, and if they lurk repeatedly, lynch them or get them to replace out. Watch MacavityLock, he's my next choice as scum behind the three I mentioned, and he fits 'lurker'.

Good luck.
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Post Post #232 (ISO) » Sun Feb 14, 2010 8:32 pm

Post by MacavityLock »

Phlight wrote:You should massclaim tomorrow (preferably crypto, since RBT's ruleset doesn't disallow that).
Explain crypto-massclaim?
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Post Post #233 (ISO) » Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:16 pm

Post by Phlight »

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Post Post #234 (ISO) » Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:59 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Trumpet of Doom I can understand as Phlight's suspect, his other two scum theories are laughable. I disagree that hypoclaiming helps town in most cases, and while town shouldn't be afraid of dying, I can think of a couple cases where town should try not to. Someone hammer.
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Post Post #235 (ISO) » Mon Feb 15, 2010 1:49 am

Post by wolframnhart »

Post 231 I had to read a couple times. the post itself seems like a defeated townie that is trying to give out last minute advice to help people out, especially since Phlight thinks Mack will hammer him. I was really thinking that this post was exactly as it seems, however, with the hypo-claim thing if everyone had gone along with it and voted ToD (assuming the tracker hadn't flipped) and ToD had flipped town instead of scum what then? Also just because a post seems defeated town doesn't mean it is, it could just be defeated scum trying to look town for a hopefuly unvote.

I think Phlights comment that the tracker slipping flipped him up is right, but I think it is beause it messed up his plan as scum.
vote phlight
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Post Post #236 (ISO) » Mon Feb 15, 2010 4:54 am

Post by Phate »

Go town. Being half of a hydra was interesting.
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Post Post #237 (ISO) » Mon Feb 15, 2010 6:14 am

Post by lobstermania »

Phates link helped explain the concept of cryptoclaiming, but I think we all still have questions on the "either or" set-up he suggested we use. Is this something that can only be verified after the player is dead? If so, what can we learn about his hypoclaim (assuming he will come up as town)?
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Post Post #238 (ISO) » Mon Feb 15, 2010 6:36 am

Post by Riceballtail »

Phlight (5) - Trumpet of Doom, dramonic, StrangerCoug, totallynotmafia, wolframnhart

After a quick day of discussion, you find that Phlight seems to be suspicious. "He came out of nowhere with all this information" you hear from the crowd. Quickly an angry mob forms, and they are put back on the shelf, while wishing the best for the rest of you.

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- Lynched D2


N2 deadline: 2/18/10 - 17:30 GMT
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Post Post #239 (ISO) » Thu Feb 18, 2010 4:29 pm

Post by Riceballtail »

After another grueling night, you find that your numbers have dwindled down to six. Looking around for who was missing, you find that both dramonic and wolframnhart are missing. You find the shreds of wolf's cover strewn about, and attempt to piece them together. Upon a further search, you find dramonic sleeping in the corner.

dramonic -
City Mouse (Mason)
- Put to Sleep N2
wolframnhart
Saggy Baggy Elephant (Vanilla Townie)
- Ran Over N2

Day 3 begins.

With 6 alive, 4 to lynch.


Also, I apologize for not putting the spoiler tags in previously. I've been a bit overstressed the last few weeks, and forgot them for having to rush the day/night scenes.
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Post Post #240 (ISO) » Thu Feb 18, 2010 5:16 pm

Post by MacavityLock »

OK, no hiding shenanigans means that we've either got a 2nd scumgroup or a vig.
StrangerCoug wrote:Well, I guess this is MacavityLock's first game with me as town, isn't it? xD
Hey look, you're right! (Read as: Hey look, SC's confirmed town!)
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Post Post #241 (ISO) » Thu Feb 18, 2010 5:32 pm

Post by Trumpet of Doom »

Do we want to massclaim? I'm suggesting it more or less on "why the hell not" grounds, as I think I can guess the setup already, but I want to make sure. (I'll reveal my thoughts afterwards if we do it.)

In other news,
SC is pretty much confirmed town
ML's a ninja.
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Post Post #242 (ISO) » Thu Feb 18, 2010 5:42 pm

Post by MacavityLock »

We're obviously in LYLO. Additionally, no scum group may have more than 2 in it. (Otherwise, game would be over in their win, right?) So, options:
1) 2 maf, 1 SK, 3 town
2) 2 maf, 1 town vig, 3 other town
3) 2 maf A, 2 maf B, 2 town
4) 2 SKs, 4 town

I guess option 4 wouldn't be LYLO, but it's... umm... ridiculous. Am I missing anything? I'm up for a massclaim.
Trumpet of Doom wrote:In other news,
SC is pretty much confirmed town
ML's a ninja.
Sig'ed :}
Yes, my fake claim is Innocent Aligned with the Town win condition as per the mod's first post.
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Post Post #243 (ISO) » Thu Feb 18, 2010 6:17 pm

Post by Trumpet of Doom »

No vig should have shot last night, and I'm kinda opposed to 4 for mod-side WIFOM reasons. I'm thinking choice 1, though I suppose 3's not entirely out of the question.
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Post Post #244 (ISO) » Thu Feb 18, 2010 7:00 pm

Post by lobstermania »

Wow. People are going fast in this game.
I suppose I'm for a mass-claim. At this stage in the game it can't hurt anything. The only part that bothers me is the two PR's NK'd N1. In addition to two masons, a hider and a tracker, I'm not sure what other PR's we would have in this game....
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Post Post #245 (ISO) » Fri Feb 19, 2010 12:47 am

Post by StrangerCoug »

Yes, massclaim.
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Post Post #246 (ISO) » Fri Feb 19, 2010 3:34 am

Post by peanutman »

I agree completely with a massclaim.

As for the set-up, I am leaning towards Mac's first option given the flavour of the kills. The "put to sleep" makes it seem like a SK. It's more "silent" then the "run over" which seems more like a mafia-team effort.

That being said, no one throw a vote yet!!! With 3 to lynch, a misplaced vote could end the game with the 2 maf pilling on.
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Post Post #247 (ISO) » Fri Feb 19, 2010 3:47 am

Post by peanutman »

Hold on. Is there a possibility to have a regular 3-member mafia team with a townie who has a PR that would break this situation (i.e. can't be lynched, or townie with 2 votes)? Would that work with the balance? I bring this up because I've never seen a 2-member mafia team in a mini game, it seems from the outset rather unbalanced.

Whoa, I'm totally thinking out loud right now, but then how would that work with 2 NKs? I guess, in that sense, there would still have to be a Vig or a SK. This whole set-up thing is being a big jumbled mess in my mind. I guess Occam's razor is one (or two) two-member mafia teams and and maybe a SK (or, a vig who shouldn't have pulled the trigger last night).

I'll re-read the whole thread with the different scenarios in mind to see which is more likely.
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Post Post #248 (ISO) » Fri Feb 19, 2010 1:38 pm

Post by StrangerCoug »

Half the game has been killed off and we don't have dead scum yet; therefore, if everybody's been playing to strategy so far, it was almost certainly 9:2:1 to begin with. If we had a vig misshoot last night, we're in a rare 10:2.
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Post Post #249 (ISO) » Fri Feb 19, 2010 1:41 pm

Post by Trumpet of Doom »

So the only guy who hasn't agreed with massclaim is the one who hasn't posted yet today. Cool.

Next question: How do we want to determine order? I'd say let SC pick, since he's (a) fullclaimed already and (b) confirmed. If for whatever reason people don't like that, dice and popcorn work as alternative methods.

Also, barring anything crazy happening during massclaim, peanutman is probably my top pick for scum at this point.
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