Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Fate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 10

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 7 - Fate, wolframnhart, Devotress, RedCoyote, The1fifi, StrangerCoug, Hoopla - (L-3)

Ellibereth

- 1 - Farside - (L-9)

Pomegranate

- 2 - Socrates, Porkens - (L-8)

wolframnhart

- 2 - Jack, Ellibereth - (L-8)

Players not voting: Bouncy.Bouncy, curiouskarmadog, DocPotter, Faraday, Pomegranate, Rayfrost, TonyMontana

Well for starters the chance that you are scum goes to around 60%

So you openly admit that your whole argument only adds a measly 6% chance to my already high chance of being scum?

Weak I tell you!

*continues to wait for Pom's reading of the game*

[DocPotter]

No, no, no. That's only if you use Hoopla's optomistic figures. Got to take into account the chance of the other possible scum 'X' number set-ups. But we're still in Nuffle range.


Really it's just the co-incidence factor. I don't believe in that much co-incidence.

[Fate]

Ironic. I don't believe in coincidences either...

[RedCoyote]

Catchup post, but if you don't read anything else here, read the following sentence.

Can someone (Elli) please explain to me how bouncy is town without using the words, "this post feels/sounds..." or "my meta is..."?

---

The logic of 'scum could've pushed the wagon just as easily as the one they did' is terribad.

Why? I mean, I understand what you're saying. You're saying that it's not impressive to say, "scum pushed FFFF", because it's so often the case that scum have some presence on every lynch, right? I get that. I think what Fate's saying that makes the idea bigger than that is how the wagon shifted. What did stop bouncy from getting lynched over FFFF yesterday, Ray?

In general, I have a love/hate relationship with this post. I don't think you're any scummier for making it, but on the same token, you're being extremely confusing with your wording here. Like Fate & farside, I had to read this over multiple times before I realized you knew that FFFF had been lynched and that we were on D2.

I'm saying

why FFFF being lynched over bouncy.bouncy is a null tell.

You're oversimplifying it. Hoopla's post 620 does a good job explaining why this is wrong.

---

Vote bouncy

Please explain how this vote isn't purely a reaction.

---

But I think closing down entire groups is a sensible idea, because it means scum can only hide if they're all in 2-3 groups.

When I stop and really consider the game, setup, and rules, this does seem like the more sensible approach to lynching. Obviously it needs to be supplemental, which was where I think my (and possibly others) hesistation came into play. There's a catch-22 in the plan where you have better odds at nabbing scum if you lynch from the top down, but if you do that you're shooting yourself in the foot PR-wise. While Hoopla says (This is a quick and dirty, one sentence summary of her position, mind you. In the bigger picture, this is a political nuance in mafia that could be argued back and forth very easily.) this is okay because PRs aren't always all they're cracked up to be, that's an extremely risky proposition.

I'm kind of throwing a lot of pronouns in this paragraph, but it's hard for me to explain exactly how I feel about the issue. If anyone is confused, I just mean to say that I like Hoopla's plan as long as it's considered another piece of scumhunting rather than a universal tool.

---

First that push at the last minute on FFF looks completely scum motivated.
He was on V/LA which everyone ignored and pushed on a wagon based more on lurking then actual scum hunting
Second someone wanted a hammer on a player without asking for more from that player looks completely scummy. Elli pushed for it more and I'm curious why people were like lets forget pom and push on this wagon for no flipping reason what-so-ever.

Well, there was a reason. The deadline.

Let's be blunt though, someone needed to be lynched. You can't act as though FFFF wasn't a serious contender for the lynch throughout most of D1. I mean, I see your point, farside, and I would go as far as to say our reasoning (but not our ultimate conclusions) are in line with one another.

While I think the FFFF lynch was scum motivated because of the way bouncy's wagon was evacuated, you think that the FFFF lynch was scum motivated because of its speed. The reason I'm not going with your conclusion is because, V/LA or not, FFFF was talked about for some time. What about my conclusion? What do you think about bouncy today?

---

True, but quantity differs from quality. And for someone to do reads, it takes someone to fish for reactions.

The 'ol "fish for reactions" line. I've heard this story before.

You're totally scum, aren't you fifi?

I was here when that happened my vote didn't change.

Oh look fifi follows more then a dog. Does he get treats too?

Yeah, and he can smell scum.

I think you misunderstood her, but I thought this was funny anyways. XD

---

I believe it went from bouncy to FFFF, yes.

Explain the reasoning though.

---

...I still can't get Socrates support, eh?

Well, neither of y'all have been particularly heavy posters today.

---

Bouncy isn't the only lurker who has contributed nothing. And he doesn't have that scummy request for a claim either.

Regardless of whether you or I agree with this or not, bouncy has the momentum. Either that momentum has to be stopped by a competent defense (of bouncy) or an explosive case (against Pom).

It's also possible that the momentum could slow due to inactivity over time, but for some reason I don't think that will happen this game. I mean, I really think the case against bouncy is multifaceted and well explained. I do not sense it is being forced upon us or scum-driven in anyway. Whether you look at it through a scumtell perspective, through Hoopla's plan, through vote analysis, through lurker incrimination... bouncy just has way too much to account for. I don't always feel confident about lynches, but I feel very confident about this one.

[Hoopla]

I'm kind of throwing a lot of pronouns in this paragraph, but it's hard for me to explain exactly how I feel about the issue. If anyone is confused, I just mean to say that I like Hoopla's plan as long as it's considered another piece of scumhunting rather than a universal tool.

It's a tough one to balance, I suppose. It's all well and good to be wary of lynching town power roles, but what are you going to do if scum have a vig, a tracker and a bomb, for example? How do you seriously expect to win a game if you're not going to lynch these roles, if they're scummy enough in the first place (whether that's by numbers or anything else).

I'm most paranoid about the prospect of scum having a vigilante - I don't think some people understand the amount of damage that can do if it's in scum's hands. And let's be honest, it's not such bad odds. If the vig misses tonight, I want it to claim tomorrow so the town can direct the kill.

Okay, back on topic, I agree with your post and I think I have compromised my position to allow numbers to be just one facet of my lynch choice now. We have enough information now to not have to solely rely on number analysis.

[RayFrost]

The logic of 'scum could've pushed the wagon just as easily as the one they did' is terribad.

Why? I mean, I understand what you're saying. You're saying that it's not impressive to say, "scum pushed FFFF", because it's so often the case that scum have some presence on every lynch, right? I get that. I think what Fate's saying that makes the idea bigger than that is how the wagon shifted. What did stop bouncy from getting lynched over FFFF yesterday, Ray?

In general, I have a love/hate relationship with this post. I don't think you're any scummier for making it, but on the same token, you're being extremely confusing with your wording here. Like Fate & farside, I had to read this over multiple times before I realized you knew that FFFF had been lynched and that we were on D2.

I'm saying

why FFFF being lynched over bouncy.bouncy is a null tell.

You're oversimplifying it. Hoopla's post 620 does a good job explaining why this is wrong.

Yeah, sorry about the confusing language.

I feel that scum would have incentive to push for a FFFF lynch a bit more than a bouncy lynch. Bouncy is inactive/lurkish/p. much useless. FFFF was V/LA and potentially active/useful/not useless.

Even if scum moved it from bouncy, it doesn't mean they were trying to save a scumbuddy.

That's my issue with it. Still, a bouncy case separate from both numbers and this logic would be nice if it were succinctly stated.

btw, guys, amount of work i have to do is decreasing, so I'll start being more active

[DocPotter]

Either that momentum has to be stopped by a competent defense (

by

bouncy)

<snip>

Fixed

[Faraday]

The logic of 'scum could've pushed the wagon just as easily as the one they did' is terribad.

Why? I mean, I understand what you're saying. You're saying that it's not impressive to say, "scum pushed FFFF", because it's so often the case that scum have some presence on every lynch, right? I get that. I think what Fate's saying that makes the idea bigger than that is how the wagon shifted. What did stop bouncy from getting lynched over FFFF yesterday, Ray?

In general, I have a love/hate relationship with this post. I don't think you're any scummier for making it, but on the same token, you're being extremely confusing with your wording here. Like Fate & farside, I had to read this over multiple times before I realized you knew that FFFF had been lynched and that we were on D2.

I'm saying

why FFFF being lynched over bouncy.bouncy is a null tell.

You're oversimplifying it. Hoopla's post 620 does a good job explaining why this is wrong.

Yeah, sorry about the confusing language.

A)I feel that scum would have incentive to push for a FFFF lynch a bit more than a bouncy lynch. Bouncy is inactive/lurkish/p. much useless. FFFF was V/LA and potentially active/useful/not useless.

Even if scum moved it from bouncy, it doesn't mean they were trying to save a scumbuddy.

That's my issue with it. Still, a bouncy case separate from both numbers and this logic would be nice if it were succinctly stated.

I disagree with a), in that I think unless you can read minds you've no idea what's going to happen. For all the scum knew bouncy could have been some sort of super scum catching machine past day 1(yeah, an exaggeration but you get my drift). FFFF was not active/not useful when around, he had 10 days to fix that, I don't see why anyone would have expected a whole lot more from him. I mean I'm aware crypto's an active player, and as far as I knew he'd never been scum, so I felt he was more scummy than bouncy.

Bouncy case is similar to the one yesterday combined with more lurking today, I guess.

[farside22]

I just want to keep this info someone where so I don't have to go to each page looking for it.

Fate - 10 - Hoopla, Ellibereth, Cobalt (town), Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Devotress, The1fifi, Socrates, Dramonic (town), FeFiFoFum (town) - (L-2)

vote: Bouncy

fos: Pom and the1fifi

I really don't get bouncy town. I saw his comment when he voted for fate and reasoning. He has then used a ATE technic (in my view) and has done next to nothing this game but lurk. He was nom'ed for a scummy which means there should be more input from this person.

[bouncy.bouncy]

vote The1fifi

same reasons as yesterday followed up with this BS excuse for voting for me

Ummm, of course we were not distancing. I rather be suspicious of who implied that
....
Vote bouncy

[bouncy.bouncy]

He was nom'ed for a scummy which means there should be more input from this person.

As I said before, I was scum that game. I'm town so I have no manipulative input to share this game, fortunately for us, thus you people saying stuff like that is stupid.

[Faraday]

Vote Bouncy.bouncy

Contribute or dieeeee.

[Faraday]

That's L-1 if i'm not mistaken.

[Devotress]

Is bouncy seriously arguing that he only posts content when he's scum, so we should think he's town because he's not doing so?

[Faraday]

^ Yes. lol.

[Hoopla]

Vote Bouncy.bouncy

Contribute or dieeeee.

Claim or die more like it.

A thought: for claims in the future (and now), if they're vanilla town, I think it's wiser if they don't claim what role they tried to get. Or at least, someone this high in the order anyway. We don't want scum figuring out where specific roles lie.

[farside22]

Vote Bouncy.bouncy

Contribute or dieeeee.

Claim or die more like it.

A thought: for claims in the future (and now), if they're vanilla town, I think it's wiser if they don't claim what role they tried to get. Or at least, someone this high in the order anyway. We don't want scum figuring out where specific roles lie.

That high in the order I can agree with but last game we found the information from the VT's helpful later in the game and it kept scum from lying about their role.

[Hoopla]

Vote Bouncy.bouncy

Contribute or dieeeee.

Claim or die more like it.

A thought: for claims in the future (and now), if they're vanilla town, I think it's wiser if they don't claim what role they tried to get. Or at least, someone this high in the order anyway. We don't want scum figuring out where specific roles lie.

That high in the order I can agree with but last game we found the information from the VT's helpful later in the game and it kept scum from lying about their role.

Yeah, I have no qualms with that.

[bouncy.bouncy]

Is bouncy seriously arguing that he only posts content when he's scum, so we should think he's town because he's not doing so?

No, I'm arguing that you shouldn't use a scum play Scummy nomination as some sort of standard for my town play. Go ahead and use your general town play standards as much as you want as a standard for my town play.

I know that my lack of posting is bad for us, but I don't know how else to play because I naturally give people the benefit of the doubt early.

[Faraday]

Vote Bouncy.bouncy

Contribute or dieeeee.

Claim or die more like it.

A thought: for claims in the future (and now), if they're vanilla town, I think it's wiser if they don't claim what role they tried to get. Or at least, someone this high in the order anyway. We don't want scum figuring out where specific roles lie.

Well he should claim if there's someone willing to hammer, yeah. He should contribute anyway, regardless.

Unsure on your second part, I see what you're saying but eh, there might be benefits to claiming anyway. More-so lower down in the order, perhaps though. Need to think on it, it does effectively expose/narrow down certain power roles but I'm not sure it's information the scum wouldn't be able to guess at anyway.

[bouncy.bouncy]

Claim or die more like it.

Role cop

Go ahead and hammer me if it helps the town, my role is pretty much useless for town with the PYP mechanic and I only picked it because I didn't want the mafia to have it.

Should I post my result from last night? Idk if that would help the town or the mafia.

[Ellibereth]

Look at the guys posts. Bouncy is unbelievably town.
Anyway, I'll read the last few pages over again, but until then:

TOWN
Soc
Fate
bouncy
red
Jack
Stranger
the1
Pork
Doc
Elli
Hoop
Curious

EVERYONE ELSE
Ray
Wolf
Devo
Tony
Far
Pom
Fara

[Hoopla]

Claim or die more like it.

Role cop

Go ahead and hammer me if it helps the town, my role is pretty much useless for town with the PYP mechanic and I only picked it because I didn't want the mafia to have it.

Should I post my result from last night? Idk if that would help the town or the mafia.

Eh, initial thoughts; it's probably more likely to come from town. I think there are probably better roles scum would have gone for with the 3rd pick. Although, I want to wait for a potential counterclaim.

I don't know about the result. I'm leaning towards no, or maybe tell us the player and

then

the town decides whether or not you can say the role from then. But lets wait for everyone else.

[Ellibereth]

Claim or die more like it.

Role cop

Go ahead and hammer me if it helps the town, my role is pretty much useless for town with the PYP mechanic and I only picked it because I didn't want the mafia to have it.

Should I post my result from last night? Idk if that would help the town or the mafia.

Playername, then we'll talk.

[Hoopla]

EVERYONE ELSE
Ray
Wolf
Devo
Tony
Far
Pom
Fara

Interesting how you've got three players from the last group as your scum reads. Do you think they are people who doubled up numbers? Or they're just scummy independantly, and not all of them are scum?