Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Socrates]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 10

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 2 - Fate, wolframnhart - (L-8)

Pomegranate

- 2 - Socrates, Porkens - (L-8)

Socrates

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-9)

wolframnhart

- 2 - Jack, Ellibereth - (L-8)

Players not voting: Bouncy.Bouncy, curiouskarmadog, Devotress, DocPotter, Faraday, Farside, Hoopla, Pomegranate, Rayfrost, RedCoyote, The1fifi, TonyMontana

Elli is so amazingly full of townie-ness that if anyone even considers voting for him they should be barred from playing mafia for the rest of their life.

[curiouskarmadog]

posting in all games, busy work schedule....hoping to updates all games in 48 hours..


side note in this game....how the fuck are we in Day 2 now?.....

[wolframnhart]

nightless game, kinda, more like insta-over night game.

[Ellibereth]

posting in all games, busy work schedule....hoping to updates all games in 48 hours..


side note in this game....how the fuck are we in Day 2 now?.....

^^^ Yep, he's town.

[Devotress]

Vote bouncy

I wanted this wagon to grow a bit yesterDay, never did, maybe I'll have more luck toDay.

[DocPotter]

I'm glad it's a direct comparison Jack. Now what are you trying to get at. WHat actually are you trying to say.

Plain english please.

I changed the numbers to make it intuitive. But the process used is the same. Here's another alternative:

1,000,000 townies and 2 mafia. Picking numbers between 1 and three.

1) 1 person
2) 500,000 people
3) 500,001 people

Ignore how unlikely the number breakdown is. Isn't it clear that the the 2 mafia are probably in groups 2 and 3?

So with our nine groups, you can't say that each is equally likely to contain mafia. Some are more likely than others, and that's why socrates and fate don't each have a 50% chance of being mafia.

Lol, now I see your falacy Jack. Apart from the obvious* it doesn't matter how many people are in each group, if we have 'i' number of groups and 'j' number of them contain scum then the chance of any group containing scum doesn't depend in any way on the number of people in each group*.


*The obvious is of course that the number of people in a group must be large enough to hold the scum that could be in the group. The 1:1:1:1:1 fits into everything but a 2:1:1:1 changes the chance that the singleton groups contain scum slightly, which is Hoopla's error. A 2:2:1 or 3:2 or 3:1:1 really screw with the odds.

Damn it, family intruding lol

[Hoopla]

8 votes in a little over 1 page? The wagon is an apathy driven lurker lynch? We are less than 24 hours from deadline?

FeFiFoFum is going to flip town. Wheee!

This feels fake to me. It's like a statement of disapproval, but it's only made when it's certain the wagon is going to go through, which makes it read like he's fishing for town credit for being anti-Fefi wagon.

I also think scum are more likely to make these sort of declarations prior to a lynch, because they can orchestrate their stance on the situation accordingly, due to knowledge of what the flip will be. Why would a naive townsperson make such a grand statement? It's an unnecessary risk - why risk Fefi being scum, as it incriminates you. But then if he flips town, you don't get that much credit anyway, so why risk it?

Uh, because I believed it? That many votes in that little time for that kind of reasoning never actually results in a dead scumbag.

Also note that Bouncy.Bouncy had more votes than FeFi did when people started pileing up on FeFi and is also guilty of pretty much anything you could argue that FeFi was and it it shouldn't be hard to connect the dots.

I might be open to a bouncy lynch just based on that occurance alone.

I agree scum likely piled on toward the end - the weird thing is the last two players on the wagon flipping town. I'd give decent odds to the remaining players on the wagon (especially the latter half of the wagon) being scum.

Interesting theory about Bouncy though, it makes sense.

[Ellibereth]

For the nth time, I don't see bouncy scum making this post:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 79#2108179

[Hoopla]

For the nth time, I don't see bouncy scum making this post:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 79#2108179

Which of his town games are you getting this meta from? Does he have more than one?

Why is it alignment telling, rather than a player just being behind and taking the easy way out?

[Ellibereth]

For the nth time, I don't see bouncy scum making this post:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 79#2108179

Which of his town games are you getting this meta from? Does he have more than one?

Why is it alignment telling, rather than a player just being behind and taking the easy way out?

No meta. Just that type of post in general. I get the feeling it much more likely comes from town than scum. I may be wrong though.

Regardless, he needs to post content. That post just gives me a pretty high town gut read.

[Jack]

Bouncy is sounding townie with his last three posts.

[RedCoyote]

If we

vote: bouncy.bouncy

, aren't we effectively killing off the 2 group? This might be an added reason to consider this vote.

Fate is on the money though. I think the scum used the deadline pressure to their advantage well, when the bouncy lynch could've been just as easy.

[RayFrost]

I'm currently not in support for the bouncy.bouncy wagon.

The logic of 'scum could've pushed the wagon just as easily as the one they did' is terribad.

As we are seeing (and saw), bouncy.bouncy is submitting virtually nothing of value... continually.

To contrast, fefifofum may have eventually at some point been of use and started scumhunting.

So fefifofum being lynched would be superior.

Even if scum could just as easily push one lynch over the other, you have to consider the benefits too. Stop making me do smart posts. It ruins the 'lol he fails' meta on me. >.>"

[Fate]

Um. Frost.... we're on D2. FFFF is dead.

*DIES LAUGHING*

[Fate]

Ellie, for the nth time I don't see any town ANYWHERE using this argument against someone else:

Quote:
ORL what was it that fate said that no townie would say?
"Hmmm... Any scum want to claim and tell us?"

Taking a joke seriously and using it as reason to vote... I've done that before. As scum.

@Jack: Last three posts? Let's see... "Cobalt F1f1 distancing theory" Well, actually, F1f1 (Cobalt flipped tracker, so not distancing) looks bad just because of that FFFF vote.

Also, I'd like to point out the starting point of the FFFF wagon: Post #478, Faraday. His only reasoning is, "changed my mind people" and then people join him in quick succession.

[Fate]

It ruins the 'lol he fails' meta on me. >.>"

I missed this the first time I was laughing. Excuse me,

HAHAHAAAAHAHAHPRICELESS

[RayFrost]

Um. Frost.... we're on D2. FFFF is dead.

*DIES LAUGHING*

I know.

I'm saying

why FFFF being lynched over bouncy.bouncy is a null tell

.

[RayFrost]

It ruins the 'lol he fails' meta on me. >.>"

I missed this the first time I was laughing. Excuse me,

HAHAHAAAAHAHAHPRICELESS

... what? >.>

that's a meta that some players have for me. >.>

[Faraday]

Ugh sorry. Net is out at home (again). Will read back later posting this in all my games.

[The1fifi]

@Jack: Last three posts? Let's see... "Cobalt F1f1 distancing theory" Well, actually, F1f1 (Cobalt flipped tracker, so not distancing) looks bad just because of that FFFF vote.

.

Ummm, of course we were not distancing. I rather be suspicious of who implied that.

Cobalt and fifi are distancing, with fifi bandwagoning. I don't see why else fifi would beg for Cobalt to be lynched and then suddenly switch her vote to the person who now has the most votes

Vote bouncy

[Devotress]

@hoopla

If we

vote: bouncy.bouncy

, aren't we effectively killing off the 2 group? This might be an added reason to consider this vote.

In your mind (hoopla), is this as good as hitting someone who drew a single number, now that bouncy is the last of his number?

Not just asking for building the bouncy wagon (though I want that), but also to get an idea what your head is going to be as the game goes on, in regards to simaler situations.

[Hoopla]

Good question Devotress! Short answer is yes, and I'll show some updated groups;

Group 1:

Socrates

Group 2:

Fate

Group 3:

bouncy.bouncy

Group 4:

Jack

Group 5:

RayFrost, RedCoyote

Group 6:

StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart

Group 7:

Devotress, DocPotter, Porkens

Group 8:

Hoopla, TonyMontanna, Ellibereth

Group 9:

Farside, curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate, Faraday

There are now 4 players who are the only ones in their group, where 'group' represents the 'X' number they chose. I think this will gradually get easier to understand and rationalize as the game progresses. Unless people want me to talk about numbers, I won't bother, because I know you all hate them/don't understand/think they're wrong. But I think closing down entire groups is a sensible idea, because it means scum can only hide if they're all in 2-3 groups.

[farside22]

I just got back last time from my trip. I need to read what I missed while I was away.

[farside22]

So it seems no one bothered when lynching FFF to see he was on V/LA when he was rung up the flag pole to be lynched. That wagon so looked scum motivated.

[farside22]

That is not a hammer. Please hammer.

Why was a hammer asked for when FFF not only on V/LA but no claim had occured?