Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Faraday]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 3 - RedCoyote, Faraday, Fate - (L-9)

Cobalt

- 1 - The1fifi - (L-11)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 3 - Bouncy.Bouncy, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-9)

FeFiFoFum

- 2 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart - (L-10)

Jack

- 1 - DocPotter - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 2 - Socrates, Farside - (L-10)

Socrates

- 2 - Hoopla, StrangerCoug - (L-10)

The1fifi

- 3 - Cobalt, Porkens, Devotress - (L-9)

wolframnhart

- 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Players not voting: curiouskarmadog, Ellibereth, Pomegranate

Unvote bouncy

Vote the1fifi

Btw I was scum in the last game when I made a post where I pretended I was cobalt as I voted him.

What?

Agreed with Fate too.

[Faraday]

Does everyone know who my account was before my ban? This is my account after my ban is up. You should all know that bandwagons are pointless on me if you know what my origin is.

I'm still curious as to what this meant, anyone who's played with Crypto could they enlighten me?

[Hoopla]

Someone explain The1fifi thing to me - is it based on lurking/low content?

If so, why has this wagon gathered so much steam ahread of others like Porkens, RayFrost and TonyMontanna?

[Faraday]

Unvote BOUNCY Vote Fefifofum

Changed my mind, want to kill him more than bouncy now. Also less than 2 days left till deadline people.

[Faraday]

TonyMontana has 2 posts in this game.

Mod can you prod him?

, can't remember the BAM prodding rules, but just do it anyway plz.

[Devotress]

Unvote bouncy

Vote the1fifi

Btw I was scum in the last game when I made a post where I pretended I was cobalt as I voted him.

What?

Deadline running out, the bouncy wagon hadn't attracted enough(maybe 1?) since a while ago, the1fifi did

exactly

what my reaction was to playing with cobalt in the last pick your power.

[Hoopla]

ATM, I'm flippin between Jack and Hoopla appearing slightly scummy for pushing optomised math and not looking at the their assumptions properly. Could be scum trying to push theories affected by known scum choices.

That's a valid concern, and I hope my theories won't be forgotten (although I know they will be) if/when I die. I feel like my numbers are good, because even if I am wrong and scum went 1-2-2 or 1-1-3, the town is still in a really good position, with scum likely having no/few good roles. I just don't see why scum would sabotage their chances at doing well in the draft to double/triple up - when all they get in return is a wifom defense against number analysis.

And when you look how swiftly people have called in wifom/unimportance about trying to analyse possible scum tactics, I sure hope they were foolish enough to double/triple up out of fear, because the town won't ever do anything about it, as it's an unconventional way of guessing who scum is.

~~

Due to a looming deadline, I'm willing to drop Scorates and Fate due to lack of interest (and fear of lynching powerroles ), and lynch from the pool of doubles since there are still decent odds there. I personally refuse to be apart of any lynch of a player in a group of 3 or 4, though.

[Hoopla]

I'm confused by bouncy's D1 defeatist attitude considering his play in the game he replaced in. It might just be a lack of interest (not that it's acceptable), but I get a town vibe from him. I'm also kind of curious to see if he'll open up on D2.

Fefi and RayFrost are very good lynch choices, due to their underperformance. RayFrost is especially concerning when you look at his play and realize his only activity has been attacking a lurker.

Fefi needs to die for his ill-timed, opportunistic vote on the Fate wagon.

Vote: Fefi

[The1fifi]

Yay, managed to get acess just before going in a small 2 days vacation.

for 15 minutes -.-

Now to serious stuff. @hoopla: Am i really the one who finds suspicious cobalt jumping in my wagon, without a reason, that started with another vote for no reason?

I find him a hell more scummy than FeFi, but meh..a lurker or an idiot, they are all greek to me.

Unvote Cobalt[/]

Vote Fefi[/]

[The1fifi]

Unvote Cobalt

Vote Fefi

sorry -.- like the 5th time this happens last 2 days

[StrangerCoug]

It looks like my vote on Socrates is doing a whole lot of nothing, and I understand bouncy.bouncy's case (that I posted at #429) better than The1fifi. Socrates will have to wait until later.

Unvote: Socrates
Vote: bouncy.bouncy

[Ellibereth]

[quote="Fate"]

Ellie what changed your minds?

Is it the fact that wagons formed on them, therefore scum are on those wagons?

/quote]

No it's not. I'm not an idiot.
Bouncy's post I quoted previously felt town. Fifi was just a null tell and his reaction felt fine.

Unvote, Vote Fefi

Insufficient Info on tony and one of the lurkers have to be scum.

[Jack]

I'm glad it's a direct comparison Jack. Now what are you trying to get at. WHat actually are you trying to say.

Plain english please.

I changed the numbers to make it intuitive. But the process used is the same. Here's another alternative:

1,000,000 townies and 2 mafia. Picking numbers between 1 and three.

1) 1 person
2) 500,000 people
3) 500,001 people

Ignore how unlikely the number breakdown is. Isn't it clear that the the 2 mafia are probably in groups 2 and 3?

So with our nine groups, you can't say that each is equally likely to contain mafia. Some are more likely than others, and that's why socrates and fate don't each have a 50% chance of being mafia.


************

unvote, vote:FeFi

FeFi is the best lurker lynch, he lied as well.

[dramonic]

your comparison is not representative at all. You're just throwing away all the key parts of the number theory.

[Pomegranate]

I'm very behind in this game. Hopefully I'll have a chance to catch up tonight.

[SpyreX]

TWO Friendly Reminders:

Deadline: February 15th, 10:30 PM PST

Reminder: ALL ACTIONS MUST BE IN BEFORE LYNCH

Prod has went out.

[Fate]

FFFF= easily confused with f1f1.
I almost forgot about him and his horrible L-1...

Unvote: Bouncy

Vote: FeFiFoFum

I hope we can all agree to get on bouncy tomorrow if he continues to be... unenthusiastic?

@Hoopla: Don't act as if dying is going to prove your 'numbers' theory is spot on. Scum can kill you just to make it seem that way and mislead town... (Hint: Watch for Hoopla dying and Dramonic trying to take up the mantle to lynch me tommorow).

[Fate]

Oh this is lightness isn't it.... heh. Thanks for the reminder, mod.

[Fate]

or nightless*

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: Don't act as if dying is going to prove your 'numbers' theory is spot on. Scum can kill you just to make it seem that way and mislead town... (Hint: Watch for Hoopla dying and Dramonic trying to take up the mantle to lynch me tommorow).

I shouldn't have to - the numbers should stand alone. It's the assumption beforehand (guessing how many different X numbers scum picked) that needs to be debated.

I agree me dying doesn't prove a theory, but it would show my motivations were truthful, which seems to be the primary concern of people in the know. Now you're adding another clause about scum killing me to manipulate numbers? What you don't realize is that every piece of information in this thread is subject to scum manipulation - it feels like you're arguing as if numbers are more likelier to be tainted than any other piece of information we get. You're discrediting numbers using logic that basically equates to, 'but it might be scum manipulating us!'

It's like saying, 'don't think activeness and genuine-seeming scumhunting is pro-town, it might be scum trying to do it!' We're all limited in our abilities to break down and scan information, but we must always make decisions based on our best predictions. Provide reasons why scum aren't likely to do what I am predicting, without saying 'scum might be doing it', because as soon as you jump into that line of thinking, you also remove any chance of catching scum using that information.

[Porkens]

we need a lynch.

unvote; vote: Bouncybouncy

[RayFrost]

we need a lynch.

unvote; vote: Bouncybouncy

^--- not reading the thread

[TonyMontana]

Vote FeFiFoFum

[Faraday]

Hey TonyMontana. What's going on?

[Porkens]

we need a lynch.

unvote; vote: Bouncybouncy

^--- not reading the thread

Why do you say so?