Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[The1fifi]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 2 - RedCoyote, Devotress - (L-10)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 5 - Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, The1fifi, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-7)

FeFiFoFum

- 4 - Rayfrost, Faraday, wolframnhart, DocPotter - (L-8)

Hoopla

- 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Pomegranate

- 5 - Socrates, Farside, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Fate - (L-7)

Socrates

- 2 - StrangerCoug, Hoopla - (L-10)

wolframnhart

- 1 - curiouskarmadog - (L-11)

Players not voting: Pomegranate

@Farside

Thats how Ray always plays -.-

[dramonic]

I've seen him play intelligently and he was scum

FoS: Rayfrost

[RayFrost]

In ITT we spam for no reason......wait I thought we were playing mafia.

fos: ray

for distrancing conversation that has no realation to playing mafia.

sweet.

dram, when did you see me play as scum? O.o

I've been a vig in a game with you and a watcher in a game with you and a VT in a game with you...

when have I ever been scum with you?

and how does me playing stupidly here make me more likely to be scum when my scum play is intelligent?

._.

[dramonic]

was town X_X

typoed.

[RayFrost]

was town X_X

typoed.

~.~ my time has been limited lately.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm not liking that RayFrost and Pomegranate were engaged in non-game related discussion either.

[Devotress]

Can we get more votes on a bouncy wagon for a little bit?

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla:

Fefi - Undercontributing, and made a very bad vote to get onto the Fate wagon. I think a lot of scum were on Fate's wagon, and he's probably one.

Again your logic escapes me. A lot of scum were on my wagon, yet you still suspect me? Hardcore bussing of #2 power role to look good later on (even though half the wagon, had any real reasons that they could later look back on and say "hey I was right!") doesn't seem plausible to me right now, no matter what my role is. Even if I'm vanilla scum such a buss wouldn't be the right play as the first wagon of the day...

I suspect you on the basis if scum went 1-1-1-1-1 or 1-1-1-2, you have a 54% and 46% chance of being scum (respectively). Although your wagon is probably scum driven, the odds I believe (numbers) probably eclipse this other belief (a lot of scum on your wagon). It's possible they are bussing, it's possible they are protecting Socrates via a Fate wagon, or it's possible you're both town. Bussing is a viable possibility late in the wagon, maybe 7th onward - it's a reasonable expectation for a wagon to go through when it reaches that point, and scum may have thought it was better to cut their losses. I don't see scum starting your wagon though.

I've recently admitted Socrates is a better choice than you now, due to my hunch that your wagon was scum-fueled, but it still doesn't hide the numbers which override a lot of other less significant data.

[RedCoyote]

Can we get more votes on a bouncy wagon for a little bit?

I agree with this. I've read over some of the more recent arguments, and I'm still coming back to a bouncy vote. Although I don't think we can go wrong with a lot of the wagons today, I must insist that bouncy be one of the more serious contenders for the lynch.

What's with everyone making a big deal over Pom + RF discussion? Unless you see one of them as trying to buddy up to the other, I don't see it as particularly suspicious.

[Fate]

@Hoopla:

Fefi - Undercontributing, and made a very bad vote to get onto the Fate wagon. I think a lot of scum were on Fate's wagon, and he's probably one.

Again your logic escapes me. A lot of scum were on my wagon, yet you still suspect me? Hardcore bussing of #2 power role to look good later on (even though half the wagon, had any real reasons that they could later look back on and say "hey I was right!") doesn't seem plausible to me right now, no matter what my role is. Even if I'm vanilla scum such a buss wouldn't be the right play as the first wagon of the day...

I suspect you on the basis if scum went 1-1-1-1-1 or 1-1-1-2, you have a 54% and 46% chance of being scum (respectively). Although your wagon is probably scum driven, the odds I believe (numbers) probably eclipse this other belief (a lot of scum on your wagon). It's possible they are bussing, it's possible they are protecting Socrates via a Fate wagon, or it's possible you're both town. Bussing is a viable possibility late in the wagon, maybe 7th onward - it's a reasonable expectation for a wagon to go through when it reaches that point, and scum may have thought it was better to cut their losses. I don't see scum starting your wagon though.

I've recently admitted Socrates is a better choice than you now, due to my hunch that your wagon was scum-fueled, but it still doesn't hide the numbers which override a lot of other less significant data.

Socrates posted this before.

Since numbers "override" a lot of other data, i.e., everything fucking else about mafia.

Your proposal is that we lynch straight down the list all singular numbers right? And you think this is a viable way to play D1?

[RedCoyote]

One more thing I wanted to add, since Fate brought it up.

Hoopla, I think I've found a real concern with following your plan. It kind of ties back into my earlier issue with choosing which "group" to lynch from. Let's say that neither Socrates nor Fate is scum (which, I think we can both admit, is not terribly improbable), then that's two likely town PRs that we are lynching.

If we move down to the next group, bouncy and Cobalt, then the chances grow that one of them is scum, but that could potentially be 3 town PRs lynched in a row. You take that with any stray bullets flying around during the night, we're talking a 6 or more townies dead going into the fourth day. In other words, an 11/5 split with the scum. This may be a bad case scenario (I can think of worse, but they obviously grow less and less likely), but I don't think you can say it's entirely improbable.

[DocPotter]

It's viable. But there's a decent chance that neither Socrates nor Fate are actually scum, so we'd just probably be wasting our best two power roles.

[Hoopla]

Since numbers "override" a lot of other data, i.e., everything fucking else about mafia.

Your proposal is that we lynch straight down the list all singular numbers right? And you think this is a viable way to play D1?

No, I propose we lynch a singular number for just Day 1, when the lynch is most random. As days go by, we will generate plenty of non-number information (role info, bandwagon/vote analysis, confirmed alignments etc.) that I am happy to use. But as it stands, we have very little of that, and I deem number analysis the best information we have to work with. I'm using other methods outside number analysis to determine who I would prefer to lynch if the numbers mean multiple people are tied due to just numbers.

For example, you and Socrates should have equal odds of being scum because of numbers. Earlier I deemed you scummier (for reasons other than numbers) than Socrates, but it has since swung now that your wagon looks scum-driven. Then if I can't get this to happen, I will vouch for the scummiest double player.

~~

It's viable. But there's a decent chance that neither Socrates nor Fate are actually scum, so we'd just probably be wasting our best two power roles.

Again, if we're too scared to lynch power roles, we will not win this game. Are you going to let a scum vig or scum bulletproof live for multiple days just because of their role?

The risk is relative, and grounded in simple theory. Most roles are of more of less equal value to scum than to town (with some significantly more powerful for scum, aka vig) - therefore the risk associated with lynching a vanilla scum/vanilla townie is linear in relation to lynching a scum bulletproof/town bulletproof. If most roles stand to benefit each side roughly equally, we should be lynching based on chances of scum, not whatever role they claimed (with small exceptions).

Remember, all roles are open to both alignments. Alignment has nothing to do with role.

[DocPotter]

You want to use theory to lynch roles on the (decentish) chance they are scum, I want to use theory to help lynch scum and don't care if they have a role.

Fair summation?

[Hoopla]

You want to use theory to lynch roles on the (decentish) chance they are scum, I want to use theory to help lynch scum and don't care if they have a role.

Fair summation?

I don't understand this summation. I'm not talking about lynching roles, explicitely, but it does coincide with the top of the draft. The theory is scum are likelier than random to be higher up the draft order due to potential planning. Therefore, if there is near equal value for town/scum for most roles, it shouldn't worry us about lynching a vig or a bomb etc.

[StrangerCoug]

Mod: Well again.

[Jack]

Hoopla needs to be lynched. There is no way her flat out rejection of the objections to her analysis is anything other than deliberate.

[Pomegranate]

Weekly V/LA

.

[Ellibereth]

Hoopla needs to be lynched. There is no way her flat out rejection of the objections to her analysis is anything other than deliberate.

I always thought stubborness was a towntell.

[Pomegranate]

Hoopla needs to be lynched. There is no way her flat out rejection of the objections to her analysis is anything other than deliberate.

I always thought stubborness was a towntell.

I think it's a null-tell. (Okay, now I'm really gone.)

[Ellibereth]

Hey I'm changing my mind on Pom...a few days before deadline.
I have no idea why,
Farside and Coug both feel off now, and I also have no idea why.
Anyone else getting that feeling or am I just wierd and crazy?

[wolframnhart]

Not sure if you are crazy, you have mentioned something off about farside before, but you also mentioned bouncy and ffff, but haven't really mentioned them since.

[Ellibereth]

Not sure if you are crazy, you have mentioned something off about farside before, but you also mentioned bouncy and ffff, but haven't really mentioned them since.

Because it's always easy to remember the lurkers.

[wolframnhart]

Granted.

What exactly is it that feels off about farside to you? As i said you mentioned a feeling about her before. And what has you changing your mind on Pom? You even had possible devotresss/Pom scum team.

[Ellibereth]

I have no idea why,

And I have no time/interest in finding out why atm.
Maybe later.