Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Pomegranate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 2 - RedCoyote, Devotress - (L-10)

Dramonic

- 2 - TonyMontana, Fate - (L-10)

Fate

- 5 - Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, The1fifi, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-7)

FeFiFoFum

- 4 - Rayfrost, Faraday, wolframnhart, DocPotter - (L-8)

Hoopla

- 2 - Pomegranate, Jack - (L-10)

Pomegranate

- 4 - Socrates, Farside, Ellibereth, Cobalt - (L-8)

Socrates

- 2 - StrangerCoug, Hoopla - (L-10)

wolframnhart

- 1 - curiouskarmadog - (L-11)

Players not voting:

None

The case on pomegranate seems off to me, though I can't comment on cobalt's "she's playing like scum pom", since I've only played one game with pom where she got replaced very early.

AKA PYP I.

[Devotress]

The case on pomegranate seems off to me, though I can't comment on cobalt's "she's playing like scum pom", since I've only played one game with pom where she got replaced very early.

AKA PYP I.

Shh. we mention that game as little as possible.

[Fate]

[
To end off, the logic on my wagon is FAIL. It's made up of two things, if I'm not mistaken:

- I didn't want Fate to be lynched without claiming
- I said that I find it possible that not all the scum were able to coordinate draft numbers.

1. You didn't threaten to hammer me, and say "claim" and I was in no danger of being lynched (as anyone with common sense can see).
2. I agree with you that it is unlikely they fully co-ordinated. I have other reasons for voting you though:

Unvote

Vote: Pom

No wagon is ever fail. I welcomed my wagon and it was based off even less than yours (imo), and look at all the information it brought.

[Ellibereth]

hmmmm
Devotrescum with Pom?

[Pomegranate]

[
To end off, the logic on my wagon is FAIL. It's made up of two things, if I'm not mistaken:

- I didn't want Fate to be lynched without claiming
- I said that I find it possible that not all the scum were able to coordinate draft numbers.

1. You didn't threaten to hammer me, and say "claim" and I was in no danger of being lynched (as anyone with common sense can see).
2. I agree with you that it is unlikely they fully co-ordinated. I have other reasons for voting you though:

Unvote

Vote: Pom

No wagon is ever fail. I welcomed my wagon and it was based off even less than yours (imo), and look at all the information it brought.

I consider someone at L-1 in danger of being lynched..

You have other reasons for voting me? Unless you have a specific reason not to state them, please explain them.

hmmmm
Devotrescum with Pom?

You said you still had to read up on me? Have you? If so, what's your conclusion?

[farside22]

@Pom here is the contradiction:
If scum want to pick different numbers to get PR then saying that there is nothing to learn from the draft number is a contradiction.
Your also saying it's likely that not all scum checked the QT but then again back to the second post they want high numbers so it benefits scum to check in.
Unless a player is out of town I don't see scum missing out on this discussion

Also, if it's so likely that Socrates and Fate are scum, why are you voting me? You're following my logic (of voting someone you find scummy, not entirely based off of numbers), not your numbers logic.

Did you even read my post 338?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla I love you when I say this and I'm not saying your numbers analysis is shit at all but I think we should use a combo of scumhunting and number analysis to find scum. I would like you to actually read the game and point to those you think are scum and why that have nothing to do with the numbers right now.

I love you too. But you don't understand, my brain automatically callibrates things into percentages and numbers when I take any information in, you know? Like, even regular information from scumhunting filters through a part of my brain that turns it into psuedo-percentages (even if they aren't always quantified). Something can be a weak or a strong tell, we may have multiple tells we're working with, and some data/tells we use are more reliable than others. Whatever it is, we naturally add up in our subconcious all the information (of varying importance) and rank it against everyone else. This is a very mathematical process, even if we don't understand (or realize) that we're giving every player in the game 'odds' of being scum.

So, because I put so much stock in the value of this number analysis, it's clouding my ability to see past it, and set it aside. For example, Pom is probably scummier than the percentages purely from number analysis gives me - but then I remember she is one of 4 people who picked the number 6. It's highly likely that there is 0 or 1 scum in this group, so even if she is scummy, it does not make it a good chance lynch for me. I'm sorry, it's just stupid.

I'll give you a list of players who are scummier than number analysis implies, but giving such a list implies they are my top choices for a lynch, which is in most cases completely false. But here you go anyway;

Pomegranate

- myself and others have brought up contradictions with her talk of numbers, and then about not wanting to use numbers. Then her request of Fate to claim was quite fishy - I don't think she has been very sincere.

Fefi

- Undercontributing, and made a very bad vote to get onto the Fate wagon. I think a lot of scum were on Fate's wagon, and he's probably one.

RayFrost

- Is suspicious for targetting a lurker, whilst being one himself. It was a ridiculous attempt at a vote.

~~

But as I said, these reads from 'traditional scumhunting' aren't very valuable compared to number analysis for me. I know I'm pissing a lot of people off because of it, but this is such good information. Fefi and Ray are the two doubles I'd consider lynching first if we can't lynch Socrates/Fate.

[Faraday]

I dont see any legitiment case formed. please enlighten me

That's too bad. Basically your vote on Fate was really scummy (reasons were disgustingly horrible) and you don't seem to be doing a lot apart from that.

Bouncy bouncy should post too, it's been a while. I'm missing that guy (stop lurkan)

I'm not much of a D1 poster. What do you want me to comment on?

YO BOUNCY YA SCUM SON. Also bullshit @ not much of a day 1 poster.

CKD are you going to do anything apart from tell us you're not contributing.

I am doing something (it is not my fault you cant figure out what it is). Does my presence in this game make you nervous? Do you think i am scum?

Yeah but it's useless, as no one actually seems to care. No. I'm unsure as of yet. You've done nothing scummy (i.e. no scumtells or w/e)technically, but then again you've done nothing, which is scummy in and of itself. There are better candidates for votes, though.

Are you still happy with your vote on wolf, or have your reasons changed?

so why am I not getting a vote? what have I done that fefi hasnt (or has?)

You're not reading the thread or you'd have seen this was answered. Why did you pick fefi out of everyone that has votes? Is it to do with him being higher than you? If so how do you explain the Pom wagon, she's one of 2 people lower than you in the draft.

but I do find it interesting that you really are the first person ask me for direct content. (no faraday you didnt).

I asked for content, I'm not sure if that differs from direct content, but there you go.

hmmmm
Devotrescum with Pom?

Doubt it. She's playing differently than she did last game where she was scum, now admittedly the scum kind of fell apart last game but she's a gut town read at the moment. I also like her interaction w/ hoopla, looks town.

Btw, deadline is approaching in case everyone forgot.

I'd go for a Fefifofum/Pom/Bouncy/ lynch. CKD wouldn't be horrible either.

[farside22]

okay hoopla lets try this from what I can figure on the numbers end for a moment.
As we stated there are 9 groups. We know that there are 5 mafia in the game.
On the off chance that all scum members picked a different number there is a less then 50% shot of scum being in one of those 9 groups.
Now me I'm factoring in this luck. Odds of people picking a number. Soc picking a number as he did makes sense if you looked at the last pyp game. Lots of people picking smaller numbers means picking a number that is 13, 14 or 15 could get you a better shot at getting a top spot. Now could someone who is scum come up with this idea just as well. Sure but do I see anything scummy with fate. No.
Soc on the other hand has been pretty indignate on the whole idea even though he admits that scum may double up on 1 number. He seems to rant and rave about this idea more which is someone I have an eye on.
His whole lets lynch hoopla because this could be a scum ploy and they may not have gotten high on the list is looking might OMGUS after he agrees that scum could communicate and get their numbers straight to get higher on the list.
As for Fefi and Ray there is one other person that picked the number they did. I expected, even though I never played with the guy, Ray to be more vocal then he has. Fefi well he's using meta for not wanting to respond to the pressure.

[Pomegranate]

I did not say that we can't use the numbers to our benefit. I said that they shouldn't be our primary mode of scumhunting. K?

[farside22]

I did not say that we can't use the numbers to our benefit. I said that they shouldn't be our primary mode of scumhunting. K?

you did where?
Why are you voting for hoopla exactly? I read your comments and there isn't much there that explains the reason for your vote.

[StrangerCoug]

Hoopla I love you when I say this and I'm not saying your numbers analysis is shit at all but I think we should use a combo of scumhunting and number analysis to find scum. I would like you to actually read the game and point to those you think are scum and why that have nothing to do with the numbers right now.

I love you too. But you don't understand, my brain automatically callibrates things into percentages and numbers when I take any information in, you know? Like, even regular information from scumhunting filters through a part of my brain that turns it into psuedo-percentages (even if they aren't always quantified). Something can be a weak or a strong tell, we may have multiple tells we're working with, and some data/tells we use are more reliable than others. Whatever it is, we naturally add up in our subconcious all the information (of varying importance) and rank it against everyone else. This is a very mathematical process, even if we don't understand (or realize) that we're giving every player in the game 'odds' of being scum.

So, because I put so much stock in the value of this number analysis, it's clouding my ability to see past it, and set it aside. For example, Pom is probably scummier than the percentages purely from number analysis gives me - but then I remember she is one of 4 people who picked the number 6. It's highly likely that there is 0 or 1 scum in this group, so even if she is scummy, it does not make it a good chance lynch for me. I'm sorry, it's just stupid.

I consider myself a numbers person too, but I'm still having doubts about their usefulness at this point. I believe that the mod confirmed that the scum could talk before picking them, but it gets into WIFOM from there. Enough deaths should give us enough information about them.

[The1fifi]

Its pretty much what strangercoug said. I agree with the numbers fuss to!

But until we have some deaths and allignment confirmations, we don't really have a pattern. After that, yes, i believe numbers gona be a pretty good tool, and everyone that doesn't like them:

a) doesn't understand
b) understands and doesn't like how much they are beneficial to town.

[Pomegranate]

farside, look at post 186:

I'm going to treat the number thing like meta, i.e. it can help a case but behavior in thread is still numero uno.

^^^ This.

I think numbers are good. I just think scumhunting is better. If there's a reasonable case that combines both, then it's all good.

And you're right, my vote on Hoopla is out of date.

Unvote

.

[farside22]

@pom: Why was your vote on Hoopla exactly?

[Fate]

farside, look at post 186:

I'm going to treat the number thing like meta, i.e. it can help a case but behavior in thread is still numero uno.

^^^ This.

I think numbers are good. I just think scumhunting is better. If there's a reasonable case that combines both, then it's all good.

And you're right, my vote on Hoopla is out of date.

Unvote

.

So.... you voted Hoopla because you thought numbers were bad and detracting from scumhunting. You realize that that isn't really a good reason to vote someone and now you unvote, but you don't have any further suspicions.

Yeah, my vote stays.

@Hoopla:

Fefi - Undercontributing, and made a very bad vote to get onto the Fate wagon. I think a lot of scum were on Fate's wagon, and he's probably one.

Again your logic escapes me. A lot of scum were on my wagon, yet you still suspect me? Hardcore bussing of #2 power role to look good later on (even though half the wagon, had any real reasons that they could later look back on and say "hey I was right!") doesn't seem plausible to me right now, no matter what my role is. Even if I'm vanilla scum such a buss wouldn't be the right play as the first wagon of the day...

[Jack]

In general a case made on a persistent behavior/approach of someone is much stronger than one made on a single comment, which is where the fate/pom/FeFi/bouncy are at right now. Fate has looked a lot more townie since his first post, which speaks to the wisdom of pushing for more content rather than lynching. FeFi and bouncy seem to be refusing to give more.

Pom looked bad for the "we don't want to force a claim"/"claim now, fate" post combo. Fate was only at L-1 because of the scummy vote by FeFi, he wasn't at a big risk for being lynched and pom already said the reasons why it was bad for him to claim. Basically if you are in the top spots you are either the roles the mafia most want to nightkill or the roles they least want to try and nightkill. They have a very vested interest in outing those roles.

But that brings me back to the Hoopla case. In ISO 1, pom voted hoopla, presumably for pushing number analysis she didn't agree with, and for that one post that cobalt responded to with the picture. But she hos'd me and fate. The hos on fate is weird given what pom said about hoopla, and the hos on me is weird since I was saying the same things about hoopla that pom was.

Now unvote hoopla? I'm seeing pom and hoopla as scum partners.

His whole lets lynch hoopla because this could be a scum ploy and they may not have gotten high on the list is looking might OMGUS after he agrees that scum could communicate and get their numbers straight to get higher on the list.

It does smell like a scum ploy to me though. Her math is definitely wrong, although I'm not sure that's material. But she jumped right in with "scum would have been thinking about this", in a way that really seems that

she

was thinking about it. I can definitely see scum pushing for a lynch/claim of the top drafters. She also should have realized her math is wrong by now, but I think she's doesn't want to backtrack.

It's possible I'm falling into the trap I warned about (voting for someone as a result of arguing strategy) but I was thinking more about the teleporter game when I said that, not about someone pushing for a lynch/claim.

[RayFrost]

I'd be far more vocal if I had time to read through the game again ~.~

Or a bandwagon started on me based off of a crap case. ~.~

[Pomegranate]

Like me.

[RayFrost]

Like me.

Except I'm cooler.

And a guy.

And an only child.

And town.

[Pomegranate]

I disagree.

I'm not fighting with that, but it doesn't change the fact that girls rock.

Plum is awesome. It's impossible to diss her anyway, don't try.

High five, same here!

[RayFrost]

I disagree.

I'm not fighting with that, but it doesn't change the fact that girls rock.

Plum is awesome. It's impossible to diss her anyway, don't try.

High five, same here!

*points to name* I invoke the coolness of my name to say that I'm way cooler than you.

Eh, girls are cool. I wasn't trying to dis females.

Wasn't trying to.

Awesome, the mod should totally make us masons.

[Pomegranate]

So we agree on three out of four. Pretty good.

[Jack]

...

[farside22]

In ITT we spam for no reason......wait I thought we were playing mafia.

fos: ray

for distrancing conversation that has no realation to playing mafia.