Open 199 - Friends, Enemies, and Enemies - OVER

[evilsnail]

Argh, how can you not be getting this? I'll first address your calculation and then the WCS.

Your calculation is wrong, though it is on the right track now at least. The first two fractions are right, but the second two are affected by the fact that scum will not kill themselves. So, mafia has a 4/6 chance of hitting a townie, because the mafia member takes themselves out of the equation. Similarly, the werewolves are actually choosing from 5 players out of 7, because they are not going to target themselves. So, the last fraction should be 4/5. Using these will yield you:

2/3*5/8*2/3*4/5 = roughly 22%.

And taking this into account makes sense, btw, because the nightkills do affect our situation.

[evilsnail]

So you think you're right, but your hope is that someone believes me and takes advantage of it? Do you normally double-talk? I agree that the argument is nice, but it's getting to the point of hurting town more than helping.

No, that's not what I said. I'm right and I hope we take advantage of this opportunity to have two lynches. You're wrong and this argument is important, because someone might believe you and try to squander this opportunity with you.

Okay, now let's see if I can get you to see my point about the WCS.

Suppose we have three scummy players that we want to get lynched:
CMAR, mavs and yawetag

Let's ignore the complexities of scumhunting and suppose that these will be the town's lynches, in the order given above. The town will lynch these players when they get the opportunity. This then reflects the town's effort at scumhunting. Of course, these are worst-case scenarios, so it turns out that these players are all townies.

Now, let's go to scenario #1.

Scenario #1

Day 2: CMAR is lynched and mavs is modkilled. 4 townies left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia member.
Night 2: Two townies are killed. 2 townies left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia member.
Day 3: yawetag is lynched. 1 townie is left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia member. No way for the town to win.

In this scenario, hitting three townies in a row causes town the game.

Now, let's see what hitting three townies in a row does for town in scenario #2.

Scenario #2

Day 2: mavs is lynched. 5 townies left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia member.
Night 2: 2 townies are killed. 3 townies left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia member.
Day 3: CMAR is lynched. 2 townies left, 2 werewolves and 1 mafia.

Now, there are two possibilities. Night 3 can go bad for town, costing it the game. In this case, just hitting

two

townies in a row with lynches has cost the town the game.

This possibility never arises in scenario #1 and is why scenario #1 is superior for town

.

Night 3 can also go well for town. Let's consider this option, finally:

Night 3: The scum cross-kill and we have 2 townies, 1 werewolf and 1 mafia member left.
Day 4: yawetag is lynched. Town loses.

Now, hitting three townies in a row has cost the town the game. This is equivalent to scenario #1.

As such, scenario #2 is always either equivalent or worse than scenario #1.

[evilsnail]

Night 3: The scum cross-kill and we have 2 townies, 1 werewolf and 1 mafia member left.

Er.. this should be "2 townies and 1 werewolf," of course.

[xRECKONERx]

I'm about to fucking replace out if you guys don't stop.

[evilsnail]

We're almost done, I promise.

[danakillsu]

Before someone lynches, PLEASE think about the dire situation we could be in tomorrow if CMaR and mavs are both townies.

That's a dumb thing to point out. What if they're both scum???? WE WIN! So let's get rid of both and see what happens!

[danakillsu]

Someone please hammer. I'm begging you. I want to make this a record for the shortest game ever won by the town.

[CryMeARiver]

Overlooked the past few days, and 1 person stuck out: Rex

I'm just gonna point out... there's no way I'm Flare's scumbuddy.

I'm gonna rehash this...the only thing this post did is form a chance that you are his scumbuddy...this is dropping hints and placing things in peoples' minds - very scummy

He then places this out there:

In any case, I'd like to see more than a general "SK's defense was scummy"... can someone put together an actual case?

So Yawetag provides the SK case and Rex's response is...

Everyone should quickly pile their votes on mavsfan.

Vote: mavsfan

Yawetag clearly didn't convince him

My vote stays there until he posts or is replaced.

Lynch mavsfan please.

But the next post...

unvote; vote: CryMeARiver
WHAT NOW SON

Didn't really understand this, possibly just trying to be funny, but its a huge contradiction

Then, not long after...

On another note, I finally learned to read, and I don't like my vote anymore. Let's quickly no lynch so Mavs can get modkilled. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Vote: No Lynch

Wow...that was quick...

But, not to be outdone by himself...2 hours later

Hmm, you're right.

Vote: CryMeARiver

Then he gets mad that people are having a math fight (but doesn't provide his opinion on it) with posts like these

STOP MATHING ME TO DEATH YOU ASSHOLES

*snore*

You two have put me to sleep, gg

I'm about to fucking replace out if you guys don't stop.

Contradictions, waffling, hardly any explanation for his votes...with a small group like this, his posts on Flare might have been a strategic bussing or he could be a werewolf...I know I said I trusted him "with a weird trust", but after overlooking this, he seems quite scummy

@Dana- As far as I see, I'm at L-2...its hard without any vote counts, could you list the people who have voted me? I'll gladly claim, just don't want to hurt town with my claim

Also, didn't like your last 2 posts...

That's a dumb thing to point out. What if they're both scum???? WE WIN! So let's get rid of both and see what happens!

Now we wouldn't win, there would still be 1 scum out there...and since I'm town, there would be 2, maybe 3 out there...

Someone please hammer. I'm begging you. I want to make this a record for the shortest game ever won by the town.

Wow...I didn't get to defend myself or claim and your looking, not even looking, but "begging" for a quick hammer...hmmm...scummilishess post

With regard to the latest argument, I obviously think we should either no lynch or just lynch mavsfan as I'm the one in question...rather than kill 1 definite townie and possibly another, I say we take the chance with the inactive possibly another...he's either lurking scum or inactive townie that isn't helping the town...But I must say, you guys lost me with all the math stuff too...and I'm a wiz in math

Anything else I can do to explain myself, just ask away!

[Shrinehme]

Unvote

Until I get a better handle on the math. I haven't bothered reading those posts yet.

[CryMeARiver]

Overlooked the past few days, and 1 person stuck out: Rex

I'm just gonna point out... there's no way I'm Flare's scumbuddy.

I'm gonna rehash this...the only thing this post did is form a chance that you are his scumbuddy...this is dropping hints and placing things in peoples' minds - very scummy

He then places this out there:

In any case, I'd like to see more than a general "SK's defense was scummy"... can someone put together an actual case?

So Yawetag provides the SK case and Rex's response is...

Everyone should quickly pile their votes on mavsfan.

Vote: mavsfan

Yawetag clearly didn't convince him

My vote stays there until he posts or is replaced.

Lynch mavsfan please.

But the next post...

unvote; vote: CryMeARiver
WHAT NOW SON

Didn't really understand this, possibly just trying to be funny, but its a huge contradiction

Then, not long after...

On another note, I finally learned to read, and I don't like my vote anymore. Let's quickly no lynch so Mavs can get modkilled. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Vote: No Lynch

Wow...that was quick...

But, not to be outdone by himself...2 hours later

Hmm, you're right.

Vote: CryMeARiver

Then he gets mad that people are having a math fight (but doesn't provide his opinion on it) with posts like these

STOP MATHING ME TO DEATH YOU ASSHOLES

*snore*

You two have put me to sleep, gg

I'm about to fucking replace out if you guys don't stop.

Contradictions, waffling, hardly any explanation for his votes...with a small group like this, his posts on Flare might have been a strategic bussing or he could be a werewolf...I know I said I trusted him "with a weird trust", but after overlooking this, he seems quite scummy

@Dana- As far as I see, I'm at L-2...its hard without any vote counts, could you list the people who have voted me? I'll gladly claim, just don't want to hurt town with my claim

Also, didn't like your last 2 posts...

That's a dumb thing to point out. What if they're both scum???? WE WIN! So let's get rid of both and see what happens!

Now we wouldn't win, there would still be 1 scum out there...and since I'm town, there would be 2, maybe 3 out there...

Someone please hammer. I'm begging you. I want to make this a record for the shortest game ever won by the town.

Wow...I didn't get to defend myself or claim and your looking, not even looking, but "begging" for a quick hammer...hmmm...scummilishess post

With regard to the latest argument, I obviously think we should either no lynch or just lynch mavsfan as I'm the one in question...rather than kill 1 definite townie and possibly another, I say we take the chance with the inactive possibly another...he's either lurking scum or inactive townie that isn't helping the town...But I must say, you guys lost me with all the math stuff too...and I'm a wiz in math

Anything else I can do to explain myself, just ask away!

Again, I forgot to include a vote...

Vote: Xrex

[xRECKONERx]

CMAR's complete lack of context for my posts only makes me even more sure he should be lynched. I don't give a fuck about the math... it makes sense to me that we could lynch AND get the modkill today and still be okay.

[CryMeARiver]

CMAR's complete lack of context for my posts only makes me even more sure he should be lynched. I don't give a fuck about the math... it makes sense to me that we could lynch AND get the modkill today and still be okay.

Where? I just copy pasted quotes...if you are talking about the WHAT UP one, that's because I don't understand it and was hoping you would explain it

[CryMeARiver]

CMAR's complete lack of context for my posts only makes me even more sure he should be lynched. I don't give a fuck about the math... it makes sense to me that we could lynch AND get the modkill today and still be okay.

Fine, let's go through each quote one more time...

I'm just gonna point out... there's no way I'm Flare's scumbuddy.

That's the exact quote, no context there...

In any case, I'd like to see more than a general "SK's defense was scummy"... can someone put together an actual case?

The whole post was...

Hence me saying "I'm not Flare's scumbuddy". I wouldn't be as brash to claim "Hey guys, I'm pretty much cleared town" because I'm not.
In any case, I'd like to see more than a general "SK's defense was scummy"... can someone put together an actual case?

The first part of the post had nothing to do with the part I was talking about, so no context there...

Everyone should quickly pile their votes on mavsfan.
Vote: mavsfan

No context there, not even a mention of mavsfan before this post...so now we know who started the whole mavsfan ordeal...just sayin'

My vote stays there until he posts or is replaced.

Lynch mavsfan please.

There is no context within these posts, but I did find on the page before this quote to support it...

Because he's lurking.

Big whoop...

unvote; vote: CryMeARiver
WHAT NOW SON

The whole post was this...

Why would he get modkilled?
unvote; vote: CryMeARiver
WHAT NOW SON
In all seriousness, though, with only two masons left, everyone should post the name of the person they trust the most. That way if one of the masons gets NK'd, we can clear the last mason without any pesty counterclaim problems.

I did not find the rest of this post having anything to do with the vote for me, therefore that is why I did not post the entire thing...Also, I still don't get this vote on me...

On another note, I finally learned to read, and I don't like my vote anymore. Let's quickly no lynch so Mavs can get modkilled. Easy peasy lemon squeezy. Vote: No Lynch

This is the whole post barring this small part

THAT'S ONE PERSON LRN2READ

which is irrelevant to anything...no context that I missed here...

Hmm, you're right.
Vote: CryMeARiver

Still kind of wondering how you flip flopped as fast as John Kerry (within a few hours) 3 times...the context for this was evilsnail's post of this:

We have that chance if we lynch twice as well. Except then we have an extra night phase tacked on, which means we lose.
Besides, just randomly, there's a 77% chance scum is either our lynch target, mavs or hit on a cross-kill after.
Optimal play is to let mavs get modkilled and lynch anyway. You can do the math yourself.

This was later proven wrong by yawetag, so the context is again irrelevant

Nice try Rex, but the little context I did miss didn't matter at all...

[xRECKONERx]

Yeah, it did. And your wagon isn't going to work, and your case is absolutely fucking horrible, so Im'ma just go back to playing BioShock 2 and lol at you

[Papa Zito]

Math.

Math.

MATH.

Fourth Votecount of Day 2

1. yawetag (0):
2. The Tracker (0):
3. cdubs (0):
5. CryMeARiver (3): danakillsu, evilsnail, xRECKONERx
6. danakillsu (0):
8. mavsfan41 (1): yawetag
9. xRECKONERx (1): CryMeARiver
10. Shrinehme (0):
11. evilsnail (0):


Players not voting: The Tracker, cdubs, mavsfan41, Shrinehme

With 9 players alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.
The current wagon leader is CryMeARiver, at

L-2

Deadline: February 15 @ 11:59PM CST

[Shrinehme]

The percentages [chances of hitting Scum] aren't important to me [we aren't lynching randomly!] I reviewed these two, specifically...

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 72#2102672
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 88#2102688

... and yawetag is correct. The Town is set to a losing situation one Phase earlier if we double-lynch than we would if we were to only lynch on person [at Night 3, we would have ZERO chance of winning in the former; the chance still exists somewhat in the latter].

BUT, I think that the chance is worth taking. Mind, they compared only worst case scenarios. We're hitting a mystery-flip mavs and a likely Mafia-aligned CMAR [Mind, no more

Mafia

= one less kill!]. Next Phase will likely be even easier to sort out if our Masons make it through. The worst scenario isn't a very likely scenario at all, so I feel comfortable with offing CMAR and mavs.

[Shrinehme]

Yeah, it did. And your wagon isn't going to work, and your case is absolutely fucking horrible

Insulting a case won't null it.

[Shrinehme]

I want to hear both Tracker's and Cdubs' thoughts before I re-place my vote.

[evilsnail]

Anyone who thinks yawetag is right should read my 251. It should show you why he's wrong.

Shrinehme, what phase we lose in doesn't matter. It's about how much scumhunting we can get done. If we only lynch/modkill one person today, there's a chance two mislynches will cost us the game. If we modkill and lynch, we will always have three lynches.

If you think of the modkill as an extra nightless day instead, which is effectively what it is, then you'll see that we actually end up in a losing situation later.

[yawetag]

Your calculation is wrong, though it is on the right track now at least.

You're right. After I posted it, I realized the werewolves have one less target to choose from. With that, I get either 79.2% or 80%, depending on whether you take mafia's choice or werewolves' shot first. So, your 77% from before is really close.

And taking this into account makes sense, btw, because the nightkills do affect our situation.

It doesn't affect the odds of a townie being lynched during the day phase, which is what my first calculation was.

Now, there are two possibilities. Night 3 can go bad for town, costing it the game. In this case, just hitting

two

townies in a row with lynches has cost the town the game.

This possibility never arises in scenario #1 and is why scenario #1 is superior for town

.

Let's forget the math for a second. Let's even forget the situations. Let's look at your idea in the most basic way we can.

We both agree that looking at worst-case scenario is what we're doing. By agreeing with that, we've both used the scenario where only townies are lynched and killed.

Using that agreement, you are arguing that killing two townies in one day is better for the town. There is NO situation in ANY normal setup where an extra death of a townie is better for the town. Any time a townie dies, that's one less townie -- there's no other way to look at it. When we lose an extra townie, the town is one death closer to losing.

Does this mean I think we should NL until LYLO? No. We do have to lynch, especially when someone is showing scummy behavior. We're wrong sometimes, but it still puts town at a disadvantage -- we just lost one of our number.

Your constant arguing against this basic principle of the game of Mafia started off as a simple mistake on your part. However, your unwilling to see the truth is now toeing a line of FoS. It now appears that you're trying to manipulate the town into agreeing with you, hoping you can set the trap of no chance for town to win.

Do I think the town would have no chance of winning if we lynch CMaR? No. The odds show that about 80% of the time, a scum will be found today or tonight. However, in the other 20% (which is only 1 out 5 times), we HAVE to lynch correctly tomorrow or the town loses. Because of that, I still think NL is the right decision for today.

To be honest, I think CMaR is our best target for today, and I've said it myself:

With that said,

FoS: CryMeARiver

. Your argument against DKU is shaky, and SK's defense of flare on Day 1 is hard to ignore. I know it's hard, but can you defend SK's actions?

If we weren't in the situation with mavs, I would have already put my vote on him. Even his defense since taking over hasn't changed my opinion.

[evilsnail]

You're right. After I posted it, I realized the werewolves have one less target to choose from. With that, I get either 79.2% or 80%, depending on whether you take mafia's choice or werewolves' shot first. So, your 77% from before is really close.

'kay, good. We can forget about the math then.

Let's forget the math for a second. Let's even forget the situations. Let's look at your idea in the most basic way we can.

We both agree that looking at worst-case scenario is what we're doing. By agreeing with that, we've both used the scenario where only townies are lynched and killed.

Yes.

Using that agreement, you are arguing that killing two townies in one day is better for the town. There is NO situation in ANY normal setup where an extra death of a townie is better for the town. Any time a townie dies, that's one less townie -- there's no other way to look at it. When we lose an extra townie, the town is one death closer to losing.

Yes, that is exactly it. Killing two townies in one day is better for the town. Why? Because otherwise we kill the same two townies in two days. If we don't lynch CMAR today, but tomorrow, that only means we have an extra night phase with more dead townies. A modkill is effectively an extra nightless day.

Your constant arguing against this basic principle of the game of Mafia started off as a simple mistake on your part. However, your unwilling to see the truth is now toeing a line of FoS. It now appears that you're trying to manipulate the town into agreeing with you, hoping you can set the trap of no chance for town to win.

This is so bizarre. Your argument is hurting town, not mine.

[yawetag]

Yes, that is exactly it. Killing two townies in one day is better for the town. Why? Because otherwise we kill the same two townies in two days. If we don't lynch CMAR today, but tomorrow, that only means we have an extra night phase with more dead townies. A modkill is effectively an extra nightless day.

And what do we do tomorrow if CMaR is killed today? We lynch someone else. Lynching CMaR today doesn't nullify the fact that we still have to lynch tomorrow.

I see where you're going with this, but it still puts us one townie short a day earlier. What you aren't thinking about is that we have to lynch SOMEBODY tomorrow. If we lynch CMaR today, then someone else gets put on the lynching block tomorrow.

Obviously, if CMaR were to turn scum, it's better to lynch today. I've said it constantly:

If so, I think we need to be VERY careful about lynching someone today unless we have a really strong case against the person.

However, all of your arguments are with the situation, not with the scumhunting. Until I'm fully convinced that CMaR is scum, I'm not pulling the trigger

today

.

[evilsnail]

And what do we do tomorrow if CMaR is killed today? We lynch someone else. Lynching CMaR today doesn't nullify the fact that we still have to lynch tomorrow.

Yes, if we lynch CMAR and he's town, we have an extra shot at lynching tomorrow. An extra shot at hitting scum.

If we lynch CMAR tomorrow, there's a good chance that, if he turns up town, we don't get that extra shot. That's the point of lynching him today. It ensures we get that extra shot.

[yawetag]

If we lynch CMAR tomorrow, there's a good chance that, if he turns up town, we don't get that extra shot. That's the point of lynching him today. It ensures we get that extra shot.

You're honestly saying that lynching an extra body helps the town, even if that extra body turns up a townie?

Does anyone else have an opinion on this matter?

[evilsnail]

Yes, lynching an extra body helps town, because it's an extra shot to hit scum!

Honestly, how do you propose playing mafia without lynching? You have to accept the risk of hitting town in order to hit scum.