Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Faraday]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 2 - RedCoyote, Farside - (L-10)

Dramonic

- 2 - TonyMontana, Fate - (L-10)

Fate

- 10 - Hoopla, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Devotress, The1fifi, Socrates, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum - (L-2)

FeFiFoFum

- 1 - Rayfrost - (L-11)

Hoopla

- 1 - Pomegranate - (L-11)

Jack

- 1 - wolframnhart - (L-11)

Socrates

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-11)

wolframnhart

- 2 - curiouskarmadog, Jack - (L-10)

Players not voting: DocPotter, Faraday

You know Hoopla, and Happy birthday btw, much as I like talking theory and such, there is one basic assumption in your probabilities that you have failed to address. Your own alignment.
If you are town then your other assumptions are fair, but if you are scum then you'll already know how many 'X' numbers the scum are on and can tailor your assumptions to suit.

So rather than lynch the top, lets lynch you. If you flip town we know we can trust your assumptions and place a little more faith in your theory/plan. If you flip scum then ...

This seems like a bad idea to lynch someone. Also I don't think anyone would think' 'Oh Hoopla flipped town, that must mean she was right' but that's just me.

You make a good point about her knowing the numbers if she's scum though, but it's mostly irrelevant to me as I'm not voting by number analysis.

[Hoopla]

You know Hoopla, and Happy birthday btw, much as I like talking theory and such, there is one basic assumption in your probabilities that you have failed to address. Your own alignment.
If you are town then your other assumptions are fair, but if you are scum then you'll already know how many 'X' numbers the scum are on and can tailor your assumptions to suit.

So rather than lynch the top, lets lynch you. If you flip town we know we can trust your assumptions and place a little more faith in your theory/plan. If you flip scum then ...

This needs to be taken into account when assessing anyone's play - whether it be based on numbers, 'scumhunting', role-information or whatever. It's kind of a time-waster (and insulting of people's intelligence) to go, 'hang on, before you take in this information, just remember i might be scum!'

I have explained my theory as eloquently as I can - you just have to decide if my motivations behind this theory seem sincere, scum oriented, or not important/not understood. At the moment, I think many people don't care about my numbers as much as me, which makes the 'lynch to prove my theory' irrelevant. If I

know

the town will follow my plan I will sacrifice myself to give credit to my theory and show it was town motivated.

But I certainly expect numbers to play a lesser role when we have other genuine information D2.

[dramonic]

Let's put all the numbers and PYP and everything aside for a moment, just to humor me, and tell me: What would you do in this situation?:

1. We have Fate, at L-1, softclaimed PR.
2. We have many votes on him that are suspicious.

How do you proceed?

You wait for a fullclaim, if it never occurs you lynch, if it's a protown role you keep alive and or hope for a doc, unless it's a protown role that is better lynched now (say, vengeful).
However, in a normal game your role has some alignement significance.

You are scummy, your defense sounds like that of a man whose back is against the wall and instead of trying to divert the wagon by scumhunting, you are lashing out at me.

The theory is just a theory, but you are the scummiest AND possess quite decent odd of being scum by stats.

[Ellibereth]

Fate's reaction and lack of claim actually looks good to me.
All the number and theory stuff is still going to be ignored.
I don't think Dram is scum. His earlier post about the scum comminication looked pretty honest.
Fefi's bullshit reasoning L-1'ing vote looks scummy as hell.

Vote: Fefi

[Faraday]

Fate's reaction and lack of claim actually looks good to me.
All the number and theory stuff is still going to be ignored.
I don't think Dram is scum. His earlier post about the scum comminication looked pretty honest.
Fefi's bullshit reasoning L-1'ing vote looks scummy as hell.

Vote: Fefi

Yeah this is :goodposting:

Not so sure on dram, I've been burned by scum being intentionally confused and actually forgetting their nk target before but I think he looks okay anyway.

Vote FEFIFOFUM

[farside22]

Fate's reaction and lack of claim actually looks good to me.
All the number and theory stuff is still going to be ignored.
I don't think Dram is scum. His earlier post about the scum comminication looked pretty honest.
Fefi's bullshit reasoning L-1'ing vote looks scummy as hell.

Vote: Fefi

elli! I agree that Fefi's post is weak along with OMGUS. There has been many people jumping on the Fate BW a few I found with OMG hoopla is right to bouncy's comment that really rubs me wrong on so many levels.

Can I just say Fate's comment reminds me eerily of what happened with EK day 1 last game? (shudder).

On another note: I understand why hoopla feels the way he does. The scum got to communicate 24 hours before subitting their numbers. Why wouldnt' they discuss their numbers to get a better chance to get higher in the draft?
I can also see why a player might pick 14 or 13 as their first number because most people may stick with the 1-9 numbers like they did last game.
Both points are valid and should not be OMG you are scum because you are first type deal.

[Faraday]

i'm going to be probably v/la tomorrow and the most of the next day

[Socrates]

why?

Socrates is being aggressive and hostile toward the plan, while advocating that we use it (or a form of it) to his own benefit. That seems anti-town at the very least.

The only point I've seen so far against Fate is that he didn't read the game with a magnifying glass. Additionally, his wagon formed way too fast, even for a game as quick as this one.

Why do you think I am voting fate, Red?

---

What was your intention by posting this, Red?

I clarified it in the following post. I just meant that it seems as though people are opening up to Hoopla's plan, because I certainly do not see any other reason for Fate's wagon to be as large as it is. There was no scumslip, so far as I can tell.

Well, you see, Maybe its because I was in a bad mood, but it looked to me like you were trying to provoke me.

I mean your post was pretty much "You goin' down, Socrates!" without actually providing any real benifit at all other than to annoy me, and then when I got angry, you could be like "Look, frustrated scum!". I've seen to much stuff like that in the past, and it read as scummy to me. But then you didn't capitalize on it when I did show anger, so ya.

Also, emphasis on majority. I didn't say that every scumbag would be in last place or anything.

Bear in mind that you're one of the greatest minds in the history of western civilization, while I'm just a little ol' mafia player.

But it seems to me like you're trying to downplay what is still, ultimately, "we should focus on X numbers of the draft order to catch our scum".

Nah, I see it as "We should focus on what the scum were doing in order to catch our scum." (Assuming a hypothetical Hoopla-scumflip, of course). And even then, if that actually happened, I would just use it as a good rule of thumb when looking at the player list, and wouldn't use it as a crutch to push through a lynch. That would be bad.

--

Anyway, in other news, Fate did the right thing by refusing to claim, the way this wagon reached L-1 was horrendus and I don't think the scumtell I voted him for is worth a lynch, (which isn't to say that I am forgetting it, jokes are a great way to slip in ideas without really commiting to them, Fate) so time to bail on this wagon.

This is the new place for me to cast my attention:

I believe it is a good time for you to claim, Fate.

I think that he should claim, even though I don't agree with Hoopla's plan that prompted this.

unvote,vote:Pomegranate

[Fate]

For those of you that, like me, saw Socrates vote and said, "huh?" and reread her, I found this quote which directly contradicts what Socrates quoted:

The problem with this is that the cop is outed, and likely killed that night. Yes, there is a doctor. But there's also an empowerer. Or he's roleblocked. I don't think it's worth it to out a cop, because once he's outed, it's unlikely he'll get any investigations. I don't think we should find scum this way. As said previously, by Elli, if I'm not mistaken, it should be treated like meta- a good addition to a case, but not a case of iy's own.

Pom, if you agree that outing Town PR is bad, not just a cop but I'm sure you'll agree other roles being outed are bad, why did you want a claim from me?

Was I really probscum enough to outweigh the disadvantages of me being town PR? If I was, why wasn't your vote on me?

FOS: Pom

You are scummy, your defense sounds like that of a man whose back is against the wall and instead of trying to divert the wagon by scumhunting, you are lashing out at me.

The theory is just a theory, but you are the scummiest AND possess quite decent odd of being scum by stats.

Looks like you're scum stuck with suspecting me, so this is the best you can come up with? Scumhunting=scummy, apparently.

Do you play russian roulette? By the stats, you're much more likely to hit it rich than die...

[Cobalt]

pom is playing like scum-pom

vote pom

[FeFiFoFum]

no Fate it was not omgus the least, you voted me with no coherent reason, I coencided with hooplas logic on socrate, so I voted socrates. However, you lacked agreement with my logic therefore you voted me for no real reason. TBH the number theories could totally be shit, but right now I find on day one we have to go based off something that isn't just a jumbilee. You never answered why you said everything was going according to plan, because I didn't see how any scum were outed by any of this.

[Faraday]

pom is playing like scum-pom

vote pom

can you elaborate? she always looks really scummy to me.

[wolframnhart]

no Fate it was not omgus the least, you voted me with no coherent reason, I coencided with hooplas logic on socrate, so I voted socrates.

First, the vote was a weak OMGUS:

I'll put you at L-1 because I didn't get your inital vote on me to begin with, nor did I get why you said things were going as plan. vote: Fate

you said you were putting him at L-1 because you

didn't get his initial vote on you

which is an OMGUS, but a weak one if that, also just because you didn't get his initial vote for you, you put him at L-1? You also state it was because you didn't get what he meant as "according to plan" yet after your vote you didn't push the subject or try to build more of a case.

Also you never voted Soc, you Fos'd him for picking first.

unvote, vote FeFiFoFum

[Porkens]

Looks like the fate wagon has run it's course.

FOS EVERYONE WHOS JUMPING OFF OMG (I haven't actually looked ath the names of who was on / is jumping off but if there are then there ya go)

[StrangerCoug]

Looks like the fate wagon has run it's course.

FOS EVERYONE WHOS JUMPING OFF OMG (I haven't actually looked ath the names of who was on / is jumping off but if there are then there ya go)

Why the FoS on the people jumping off? I understand that he refused to claim, which is basically signing away your death, but I honestly don't think the wagon was that good. I like Socrates as scum.

[Devotress]

FOS EVERYONE WHOS JUMPING OFF OMG (I haven't actually looked ath the names of who was on / is jumping off but if there are then there ya go)

Too bad.

unvote fate

Fate's posting has been good lately, he really only had 2 posts that were the reason I voted for him, and has had many more posts since those 2 that aren't keeping up the same scummy behavior.
I also don't like a couple people on his wagon and am not sure I want to be voting with them.

More later, just wanted to get a quick unvote in while I had time to be around.

[Fate]

Looks like the fate wagon has run it's course.

FOS EVERYONE WHOS JUMPING OFF OMG (I haven't actually looked ath the names of who was on / is jumping off but if there are then there ya go)

So are you going to jump off? Are you going to self-FOS?

Since it has run its course, you'd be a hypocrite not to jump off yourself.
If you want to leave it on, please elaborate on the reasons you think I am scum (since you never did in the first place).

FOS: Porkens

[wolframnhart]

Not really getting you on this one Porkens, you haven't really contributed much, even with you on the Fate wagon you didn't really push hard on it and now are FoSing people that get off of it?

FoS Porkens

feels off to me.

[Plum]

I said that a claim from fate was good because (I thought, at least, that) he was at L-1. I am of the opinion thatsomeone should claim at L-1 (barring special circumstances).

[Pomegranate]

That was me. (It

looked

like I was logged on... )

[Socrates]

I said that a claim from fate was good because (I thought, at least, that) he was at L-1. I am of the opinion thatsomeone should claim at L-1 (barring special circumstances).

Wow.

You are so obviously scum I am worried that something tricky is going on.

[DocPotter]

Something about Porkin's comment is not right.

But FFFF's vote was worse. #260 is not that good either. Fate gave an answer, of sorts

However, you lacked agreement with my logic therefore you voted me for no real reason.

This just doesn't sound right.

Vote FFFF

Plum, was this circumstance special enough?

[Pomegranate]

Say, if someone gats to L-1 on page three, or if there's some special mechanic, like say Zoraster's one where everyone can switch their votes for 24 hours after a lynch (sorry, not such a good example because sometimes 24 hours isn't enough. I can't think of any better mechanic as an example ATM).

[Ellibereth]

Porkens is funny.
I get more town than scum from his post.
Pom, what if there's a wagon on someone to L-1 by page 8 for mostly crap reasons?

[Pomegranate]

Depends on the size of the game.