Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[dramonic]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 3 - RedCoyote, Farside, Fate - (L-9)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 10 - Hoopla, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Faraday, Devotress, The1fifi, Socrates, Dramonic - (L-2)

Hoopla

- 1 - Pomegranate - (L-11)

Jack

- 2 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart - (L-10)

Socrates

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-11)

wolframnhart

- 2 - curiouskarmadog, Jack - (L-10)

Players not voting: DocPotter, Fate, FeFiFoFum

Don't post if you're pissy. Your judgement is just of lower quality and your posts are rude in those instance.

Please.

[curiouskarmadog]

^ Yes, but there's not a whole lot to discuss if you'll forgive me. Active Lurking (which is what you've pointed yourself as doing) is scummy. What exactly was the point of bringing this to our attention, just to show you're aware of your lack of content and intend to fix it our rub our noses in it?

getting non-number conversation started. there is also other motivation behind it...but I would like others to comment (or not comment on it) first.

[FeFiFoFum]

I'll put you at L-1 because I didn't get your inital vote on me to begin with, nor did I get why you said things were going as plan.

vote: Fate

[The1fifi]

I believe it is a good time for you to claim, Fate.

[Pomegranate]

I believe it is a good time for you to claim, Fate.

I think that he should claim, even though I don't agree with Hoopla's plan that prompted this.

[RedCoyote]

why?

Socrates is being aggressive and hostile toward the plan, while advocating that we use it (or a form of it) to his own benefit. That seems anti-town at the very least.

The only point I've seen so far against Fate is that he didn't read the game with a magnifying glass. Additionally, his wagon formed way too fast, even for a game as quick as this one.

---

What was your intention by posting this, Red?

I clarified it in the following post. I just meant that it seems as though people are opening up to Hoopla's plan, because I certainly do not see any other reason for Fate's wagon to be as large as it is. There was no scumslip, so far as I can tell.

Also, emphasis on majority. I didn't say that every scumbag would be in last place or anything.

Bear in mind that you're one of the greatest minds in the history of western civilization, while I'm just a little ol' mafia player.

But it seems to me like you're trying to downplay what is still, ultimately, "we should focus on X numbers of the draft order to catch our scum".

And yes I am in a pissy mood. How could you tell?

No worries. Please note I haven't changed my vote yet however.

[Hoopla]

I clarified it in the following post. I just meant that it seems as though people are opening up to Hoopla's plan, because I certainly do not see any other reason for Fate's wagon to be as large as it is. There was no scumslip, so far as I can tell.

Scum are scared of the numbers and are bussing Fate hard. Either that, or they're wagoning Fate to protect Socrates - I haven't come to a definite conclusion just yet. Either way, I agree that the speed of this wagon implies there is quite probably a decent amount of scum on it. I hope it's because of bussing.

~~

A sidenote; it's funny how all the people wanting to do traditional scumhunting aren't really doing much of it at all.

[DocPotter]

Hoopla's math is flawed.

It isn't Jack. His assumptions might be crook, but the math isn't.

Yours however I'm not sure of.

p.s. Hoopla, don't quibble with the math. Tell us your suspects based on in thread stuff.

This is right however.
The probability arguements are a nice aditional to actual scumhunting at this stage, not a replacement.

I believe Fate should wait to claim until someone says they are willing to hammer, not before.
That wont be me.

FOS Jack

Not happy with the claims about Hoopla's work, even if I think Hoopla has too much faith in it.

[Fate]

Hello all, see I've finally gotten to L-1.

I clarified it in the following post. I just meant that it seems as though people are opening up to Hoopla's plan, because I certainly do not see any other reason for Fate's wagon to be as large as it is. There was no scumslip, so far as I can tell.

Scum are scared of the numbers and are bussing Fate hard. Either that, or they're wagoning Fate to protect Socrates - I haven't come to a definite conclusion just yet. Either way, I agree that the speed of this wagon implies there is quite probably a decent amount of scum on it. I hope it's because of bussing.

~~

A sidenote; it's funny how all the people wanting to do traditional scumhunting aren't really doing much of it at all.

First off, this is bullshit. "Scared of numbers?" Scum are bussing me hard? Because the "slip" I made (what was that again? I don't remember because I'm not scum in the first place).

Why would scum buss their (most likely, unless you want to think both Socrates and I are scum) TOP draft choice?

Answer that, please.

Vote: Hoopla

I'll tell you what scum is really doing, on the other hand, and that is bandwagoning in full force to get the #2 PR to claim.

And guess what: No.

[Fate]

I'll put you at L-1 because I didn't get your inital vote on me to begin with, nor did I get why you said things were going as plan.

vote: Fate

Another great person to look at. OMGUS L-1? L-1 because you don't understand my 'plan'? (Hint: it is to out scum).

My plan worked, very well I might add. I can see with 99% confidence that there are

multiple

scum on my wagon. I'd like to think at least 3, because my behavior so far hasn't been enough to warrant this huge of a legitimate 'scumhunt' wagon.

[RayFrost]

FeFi is scum, Fo Fum (Fo Sho is another way to say Fo Fum, or is it the other way around?)

vote: FeFiFoFum

3 posts, 10 pages, 0 content, 100 basis points of follow the town.

[Hoopla]

First off, this is bullshit. "Scared of numbers?" Scum are bussing me hard? Because the "slip" I made (what was that again? I don't remember because I'm not scum in the first place).

Why would scum buss their (most likely, unless you want to think both Socrates and I are scum) TOP draft choice?

Answer that, please.

I agree with you - I think multiple scum are probably on your wagon. If you're being bussed, it is probably later in the wagon after it's gathered enough steam to be viable. This makes me think (if you're scum), you're either partners with Socrates, are the cop (no scum use), are the bulletproof or bomb (with a scum vig), or are vanilla after going for the same role as Socrates. There are plenty of possible scenarios where bussing isn't a bad play.

I think most of the people on your wagon are using some form of number justification - you cannot say that they aren't influential. I hope you don't take it personally, but I believe scum are spread 1-1-1-1-1 or 1-1-1-2, which means for me, you or Socrates are the highest percentage lynch. I play mafia to win, and your lynch gives the best odds for Day 1.

[Hoopla]

Ray, are you seriously voting Fefi for that reason when your game contributions have been thus;

vote: jack

answer the question

Why'd you pick 4,6 as your numbers?

small numbers, higher draft choice, get PR, be happy, rock out

Do you think scum would have deliberately chosen to double up on a number somewhere to distance, or spread their choices over 5 different X numbers to improve their chances at better roles?

spreading seems possible, depends on how they think things'll go down and such, so yeh.

dunno.

either seem plausible.

What would you do if you were scum organising your team?

Prob go for more powers, I guess.

One vote on page two, and nothing else without being asked first.

[RayFrost]

Ofc I am, hoopla!

I've already registered with the Hypocritical Society of Hypocrites, so no need to point it out.

Besides, I intend to be more active. I've been having RL stuff keeping me busy.

[Fate]

God this number talk really did bite us in the ass. 5 pages of me being at L-3 and all people are talking about is number speculation.

Though, I did find this gem. His name is dramonic:

Yes, I'm obviously in dire need of being told that <_<

I'm trying to get accross to you that while Fate is scummy anyways, so his lynch is a pretty sure thing, I will eventually push for statistically good lynches, wether you dont like em stats or not.

Also, if you agree with the theory why dont you want to use it?

Read an iso of him. The first mention of him thinking of me as scum is "nothing really much happened except Fate being scummy___"-paraphrased.

And in the quoted post he sees my lynch as a "sure thing." Really? I thought the way we did things here around MS was to vote someone, ask questions, see how they react, try to get a read, if they get worse and worse push to L-1, let them claim, evaluate claim, then lynch.

You're skipping a lot of those steps, pal. So much so you deserved your own post, as I'm still going to make a list shortly.

Your complete devotion to Hoopla's (guess what, Hoopla may be scum!) strategy is noted as well. Are you voting me because of your complete agreement with this flawed plan? (It is the equivalent of saying, "yeah I did a die roll. Let's lynch X because we have a 30% chance of lynching scum!) Or are you voting me because of how "scummy I am" (still never really pointed that out.)

HoS: Dramonic

More suspicions to follow, if anyone else besides RayFrost is awake around now.

[Hoopla]

Ray, the game wouldn't really get anywhere if you were allowed to vote people for things you were you doing yourself, though. Why did you feel the need vote if you were fully aware of the hypocrisy?

[Fate]

I hope you don't take it personally, but I believe scum are spread 1-1-1-1-1 or 1-1-1-2, which means for me, you or Socrates are the highest percentage lynch. I play mafia to win, and your lynch gives the best odds for Day 1.

Personally? How could I take it "personal?" You're voting me, and (per your own words) are persuading other people to vote me based off my luck in the draft, not anything personal. So sure, none taken.

I hope you take this personally though:

Stop. Tunneling. Get off your high horse. We get it, your statistics are right. Using them to advocate lynching me may have even made scum jump at an "easy lynch"-a justifiable target. Dramonic seems the biggest offender of this.

But you're glaringly missing the percentages I have for holding an important role. I think we can I agree there is a better chance that I am a PR than I am scum, right?

Here, let me try another approach to get through to you. Hoopla, in regular mafia games, what is your approach to Power roles? Let's put all the numbers and PYP and everything aside for a moment, just to humor me, and tell me: What would you do in this situation?:

1. We have Fate, at L-1, softclaimed PR.
2. We have many votes on him that are suspicious.

How do you proceed?

[Fate]

Ok, back to your regularly scheduled bandwagon review:

Porkens- Voted with no reasons given. Says he won't let his "FoS" get away. After this he posts no 'town probing' posts towards either me or his FoS. He just talks about the numbers, the setup, etc.

Bouncy- No reason given. See RayFrost's "lol 3 posts, 0 content." Later gives the reason as me saying something "no townie would ever say" when all I said was clearly a joke. Never responds to me pointing out it was a joke.

Cobalt- "Approves" of my Bandwagon. Scum bomb is good for town, because it would kill the vig too. Supports a "jack, fate, or hoopla" lynch. Talks about last PYP and setup.

Devotress- Votes me for being scummy. Disagrees with use of numbers. One of the better votes on me.

thef1f1- Votes me thinking my 'plan' relates to me being a vengeful. At least he gives a reason.

Faraday-Votes me for being scummy. Doesn't like the numbers speculation. Appears to be scumhunting. Asks where dram's vote is.

Socrates-votes me for implying he is scum/BP if not dead after day one (that was a joke by the way, see the way I spelled "srsly"). Talks about the setup, numbers, etc. Asks Jack what he thinks about me.

Ellie- votes without a reason. Asks questions of other players. Appears to be scumhunting. Hates the 'percentages' post.

I think that's all. My vote on Hoopla has served it's purpose since he came in here and answered my question. I'm still leaning misguided town on you Hoopla, you stubborn bastard.

Unvote

Vote: Dramonic

[Fate]

EBWODP: Change all instances of referring to Hoopla as 'he' to 'she' (thought you fell into the Ellibereth, danakillsu category of usernames, sorry.)

Ray, the game wouldn't really get anywhere if you were allowed to vote people for things you were you doing yourself, though. Why did you feel the need vote if you were fully aware of the hypocrisy?

Ray is contributing to the game. He is observing. I am pretty confident that he is getting good reads off this wagon, if he's town, and he's staying off it, if he's scum. Either way I have a meta on him as 'intelligent' so I don't see the hypocrisy.

Number of posts? Sure. Content? Yeah. But look me in the eyes and say that RF's posts and bouncy.bouncy's are on the same level...

[RayFrost]

I was talking about FeFiFoFum, not bouncy.bouncy.

Wait, bouncy.bouncy is in this game? O.o

[Fate]

I'm not really suited to large games, if anyone can tell. Too many ***ing names. Bouncy has what amounts to 3 posts as well, which is probably why I confused them.

I also left FFFF out of my list above, though I did point him out in #234, I'll do it better here.

FeFiFoFum-Votes me because I voted him earlier (I voted him for FOSing based off Socrates being #1, right after Jack said to put the number speculation to the side), which he "didn't like" for no given reason.

i did mistype my post, I was agreeing with the before statement of hoopla, since scum could talk before hand they were allowed to make sure they didnt pick the same number

That's his second post. And his third is way up there putting me at L-1. Yay for an easy iso.

Useless? Most likely. Scummy? Well, an L-1 vote isn't something you just do offhand for those reasons, so yeah scummy. I still think Dramonic is worse.

[Hoopla]

Here, let me try another approach to get through to you. Hoopla, in regular mafia games, what is your approach to Power roles? Let's put all the numbers and PYP and everything aside for a moment, just to humor me, and tell me: What would you do in this situation?:

1. We have Fate, at L-1, softclaimed PR.
2. We have many votes on him that are suspicious.

How do you proceed?

Well, here is my last town game (Mini 892: Mayor Mafia). Monkeyman was wagoned at a similar pace to you, and claimed cop on D1. We lynched him because the role was mostly valueless now that he was outed - we deemed it the better percentage play to hope he was lying. Towns don't win games by being too pussy to lynch claimed powerroles.

You're also missing an important factor - power roles aren't indicative of alignment which you seem to be pushing. A scum vig is equally (or probably more) beneficial to scum, than a town vig is to town. We should be lynching players with the highest odds of being scum even if that means lynching a powerrole.

Stop. Tunneling. Get off your high horse. We get it, your statistics are right. Using them to advocate lynching me may have even made scum jump at an "easy lynch"-a justifiable target. Dramonic seems the biggest offender of this.

They aren't statistics - I'm not doing studies and recording/displaying data. We're talking about

probabilities

in the different scenarios scum could choose to adopt. The probabilities in some scenarios are more than double of what you would get from a random or normal lynch on Day 1 in any other game. If the town deem certain the scenarios (where we have high odds for a scum lynch) likely, then we should pursue them.

The stigma against numbers is quite amusing to me, because I treat it as a viable form of scumhunting. If you strip back the fancy name and genralised tells, scumhunting is the term used to describe figuring out who scum is. People have different techniques, some are very logically or psychologically inclined, while some favour gut - but what all these techniques attempt to do, is find out information to

improve your odds

of lynching scum.

Nobody is perfect and we all have different interpretations of what is scummy, and what isn't. This is shaped through the success and failures of various techniques, seeing what works, what doesn't, and this always evolves as there is no set tell that is definitive. Once a tactic becomes common, most people will add it to their arsenal and use it/slightly tweak it to scenarios where they deem it useful. Vote/bandwagon analysis, bussing/distancing are all stock things that are debated in a normal game - but this is still guesswork based on the patterns you've established scum will follow.

I am using probabilities of scum positions to try and improve the odds of lynching scum on Day 1. The initial assumption (of whether scum doubled/tripled up or not) is guesswork based on what I think scum would/wouldn't do. Every alternate tell you use, uses an element guesswork, trying to decide if it is something scum would do. The reason I am favouring probabilities based on my assumption, is because I think I can guess what scum are doing with more likelihood, than guessing using more common techniques.

You'd be surprised how difficult it is to catch scum without any starting information - it is certainly a lot more random than people believe it to be. And without trying to sound too hypocritical, I think people overvalue their own personal reads/thoughts a lot (especially on D1).

I'm sorry for the rant, but I dislike numbers being trash-talked when the numbers are fine. It's the previous assumption the numbers are based on that should be disputed - and I have yet to see compelling arguments that scum have done anything other than 1-1-1-1-1 or 1-1-1-1-2.

[Fate]

I already said your numbers are fine. You're relying too much on them. You've allowed people to bandwagon me based off these theories (which, imo, is good. It is how I found dramonic as target #1). Now keep your damn megaposts to yourself.

That's your way of scumhunting, fine. I hope you aren't too self-important to disagree that latching on to your way of thinking and voting because of it is bad.

Now, outside of your numbers, I am still the scummiest 'single' number? Oh wait, you wouldn't know. You haven't scumhunted for half the topic, you've spent it defending and explaining them in head-banging posts.

We get it. I'm not trash-talking your theory anymore. It is there and it will always be a huge part of who you are willing to lynch. Now the draft order and # choices are permanent,

now

can you focus on other techniques, (which I hope you have) for catching scum?

What do you think of my wagon? Is it just a product of your 'flawless' numbers analysis that have convinced half the town? Well, in my iso readings, a few of the votes on me disagreed with you...

[DocPotter]

You know Hoopla, and Happy birthday btw, much as I like talking theory and such, there is one basic assumption in your probabilities that you have failed to address. Your own alignment.
If you are town then your other assumptions are fair, but if you are scum then you'll already know how many 'X' numbers the scum are on and can tailor your assumptions to suit.

So rather than lynch the top, lets lynch you. If you flip town we know we can trust your assumptions and place a little more faith in your theory/plan. If you flip scum then ...

[Faraday]

I think Fate has defended himself reasonably well for the moment. The number analysis wasn't a reason for me voting you, and in all honesty most of it is going over my head still so it probably won't be a reason for a vote of mine. I also don't like some of the votes on him, Hoopla says she thinks scum is bussing, well maybe they are but there's certainly enough scummy people on the wagon.

Unvote

for the moment.