Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Hoopla]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 3 - RedCoyote, Farside, Fate - (L-9)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 9 - Hoopla, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Faraday, Devotress, The1fifi, Socrates - (L-3)

Hoopla

- 1 - Pomegranate - (L-11)

Jack

- 2 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart - (L-10)

Socrates

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-11)

wolframnhart

- 2 - curiouskarmadog, Jack - (L-10)

Players not voting: DocPotter, Dramonic, Fate, FeFiFoFum

^For the record, are you saying you want to see me put at L-1 and claim, Hoopla?

At the moment, I want to lynch you over Socrates, and any of the doubles. I only want a claim if there is enough town support for your lynch (that means L-1 and at least one person prepared to hammer). Please don't claim before then.

[dramonic]

^For the record, are you saying you want to see me put at L-1 and claim, Hoopla?

I do!

[Faraday]

^For the record, are you saying you want to see me put at L-1 and claim, Hoopla?

I do!

Where's your vote at dram?

[Devotress]

^For the record, are you saying you want to see me put at L-1 and claim, Hoopla?

I do!

Where's your vote at dram?

That's actually a really good point.

[StrangerCoug]

The number and role speculations are distracting me from actual scumhunting, which is really what I want to do. Everybody wanted the top slot, motives for picking roles might have been for keeping the other side for getting it, blah, blah, blah (though I'll probably argue for roles other than VT we should lynch if claimed). Make me stop and think, not stop and give up.

[dramonic]

my vote is waiting for Socrate's to be off so that I can get on. I want him to hammer.

[Faraday]

um, why?

[StrangerCoug]

um, why?

Which one of us is that addressed to? Your post is only 36 seconds after dramonic's, so you might be talking to me instead of him.

[Faraday]

Nah it's adressed to dramonic, lol. I don't see why he wants a specific person to hammer.

[dramonic]

I'm brainwashed by the number plot

just in case he's a bomb, I'd like for socrates to be the one caught in the blast ^^

[Jack]

The number and role speculations are distracting me from actual scumhunting, which is really what I want to do. Everybody wanted the top slot, motives for picking roles might have been for keeping the other side for getting it, blah, blah, blah (though I'll probably argue for roles other than VT we should lynch if claimed). Make me stop and think, not stop and give up.

Let's save the speculation on which numbers the mafia picked until later. It sucks as a game starter...Then once that talk is exhausted, there isn't anything real to go on, and the game stymies.

See, prophetic words.

Hoopla's math is flawed. A townie trying for the top spot doesn't know what numbers 21 other people are going to pick. A mafia going for the top spot doesn't know what numbers 17 other people are going to pick (assuming they didn't double up).

Nine numbers were picked, so lets take that as our set (since people weren't picking randomly).

For a townie, the odds of picking a number that no one else picked:

(8/9)^21 = 8.4%

For mafia:

(8/9)^17 = 13.5%

Now, there were 17 townies with an 8.4% chance at getting a singular number, and 5 (or 3) mafia with a 13.5% chance at getting a singular number. So there should be on average 1.42 townies with a singular number and either .675 mafia or .405 mafia. With a lot of variance.

***************

What does that tell us? That this should be the END of number analysis, that we shouldn't lynch someone based on the number analysis because of what I said at the beginning and what StrangerCoug says here. It's just going to distract from scumhunting.

p.s. Hoopla, don't quibble with the math. Tell us your suspects based on in thread stuff.

[wolframnhart]

I'm brainwashed by the number plot

just in case he's a bomb, I'd like for socrates to be the one caught in the blast ^^

You are the bomb. If you are successfully killed at night you will explode killing all players that targeted you.

[curiouskarmadog]

Thanks for posing the game, when I get more than 4 seconds, I will check it out.

also I love farside....dear, who should I vote for?

I'm voting for bouncy now and his reason on what a townie wouldn't say is laughable to me right now.

I'll have more for everyone hopefully tomorrow. I'm still not feeling so great today

OK, will consider after I catch up.
---
Hell I am caught up, but cant get around the numbers….it seems like some are using them to push a case, others are using them (indirectly) to call others scum for using them…

I could use a vote count right about now.

And for those of you who are wondering…there is absolutely NO content in this post. I have provided jack on stances and opinions of players…the only thing I have actually commented on in this game is how much I hate the numbers.

Is that scummy? Discuss.

[Faraday]

^ Yes, but there's not a whole lot to discuss if you'll forgive me. Active Lurking (which is what you've pointed yourself as doing) is scummy. What exactly was the point of bringing this to our attention, just to show you're aware of your lack of content and intend to fix it our rub our noses in it?

[Pomegranate]

Pom, the numbers are accurate;

If scum are spread 1-1-1-1-1 over five different numbers, then Socrates and Fate have a ~56% chance each of being scum.

If scum are spread 1-1-1-2 over four different numbers, then Socrates and Fate have a ~44% chance each of being scum.

They have lower odds for combinations like 1-2-2 and 1-1-3 etc, which should be considered if you think it's a realistic possibility scum would do it. However, this quote suggests you don't think that;

I would be extremely surprised if scum decided to all pick the same numbers- getting PRs is better for them than having that defense.

Which is a good point, but contradicts being against the numbers. Because the numbers for 1-1-1-1-1 and 1-1-1-2 are solid.

Everyone wanted to be highest on the draft. Scum did too. I agree with the numbers 1-1-1-1-1 and 1-1-1-2. Scum did know what their buddies were going to pick- or at least could have known (they only had 24 hours, and I'd bet that at least one sent in numbers before checking the QT). But scum only knew their five numbers (collectively), not the seventeen other players' numbers. I guess this doesn't look like much. But there's something else:

The consensus decides Z is the scummiest in the game. Z claims vig - it is worth lynching as extra town kills aren't worth the possibility of scum having double kills. That is such a ridiculously powerful ability that can cripples towns so quickly.

The consensus decides Y is the scummiest in the game. Y claims cop - it is probably not worth lynching as it's town value is far better than it's scum value (nothing).

The consensus decides X is the scummiest in the game. X claims Governor - it is definitely worth lynching as it has so much more scum value than town. Preventing lynches deprives town of information, and gives scum another free nightkill. The only town motivation is preventing scum from having this role, but it is not worth the risk of leaving a potential scum governor alive.

The problem with this is that the cop is outed, and likely killed that night. Yes, there is a doctor. But there's also an empowerer. Or he's roleblocked. I don't think it's worth it to out a cop, because once he's outed, it's unlikely he'll get any investigations. I don't think we should find scum this way. As said previously, by Elli, if I'm not mistaken, it should be treated like meta- a good addition to a case, but not a case of iy's own.

[RedCoyote]

Socrates, I think the tide is moving against you.

[RedCoyote]

In the sense that Hoopla's plan is gaining traction.

[dramonic]

...

I should read them roles...

Vote: Fate

[RedCoyote]

Also, I got to say I agree with StrangerCoug. If we're really doing this, Socrates seems like the better lynch than Fate.

[dramonic]

why?

[Faraday]

Also, I got to say I agree with StrangerCoug. If we're really doing this, Socrates seems like the better lynch than Fate.

I'm not really open to Hoopla's plan. But why do you think Socrates is scummier than Fate?

[Socrates]

Socrates, I think the tide is moving against you.

What a fascinating post. What was your intention by posting this, Red?

Also, why am I scummy?

[Socrates]

You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because

people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum

[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:

If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum

, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and

we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order

.

(emphasis added)

Does anyone else see this as contradictory?

Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.

I'm sorry, but what?

I don't get what either of your points have to do with anything.

There are 22 players in this game. You are first in the draft, Fate is second, and Hoopla is 17th. Fate being scum is not indicative of the scum in general doing poorly in the draft according to your logic, as 2

<

22/2.

My god, why bother defending myself if nobody bothers to listen.

Also, emphasis on majority. I didn't say that every scumbag would be in last place or anything.

I also certainly wouldn't call going, say, 2,19,20,21,22 doing

good

in the draft, but thats just me.

[Socrates]

Socrates, I think the tide is moving against you.

What a fascinating post. What was your intention by posting this, Red?

Also, why am I scummy?

It's also a straight up lie, considering the fact that Dramonic is the only person other than you who has even come close to supporting her rediculous plan.

[Socrates]

And yes I am in a pissy mood. How could you tell?