Newbie 888 - Game Over!

[pablito]

Lastsurvivor and Kyiv prodded

Reminder: 48 hr prods because it's near deadline.

[Kyiv]

Hello Charlie!

Kyiv, you ask whether I think bob was bussing, the simple answer is yes. I understand it was not bussing at a really obvious time to do it. The timing was very good, but suspicions were on PD, bob made his excuses, and then voted for PD in a following post. It was bussing done well imo.

PD was not playing incredibly poorly as scum. Think about the big picture:

Let's say AB and PD were scumpartners. It is D1, deadline is in 4 days (as I believe it was). The largest wagon is PD, scum, with 2 votes, with 3 competing votes (although one was RVS). Given that deadline = No lynch and most of the town is unsure of what to do, would you bus your partner? Scum can hardly afford to bus D1, especially not when things are going fairly well. It is not likely that AB-scum would place a L-2 vote on his partner in that situation. If a bus happened on PD, it would almost certainly have been after his claim. That means Flareonage/Charlie and Kunk.

"I don't have an opinion on the bob debate."
"This looks a lot like townie mud-slinging to me"
This is just wrong, the statements contradict. If you think they are both town, Why didn't you just say so instead of using those poor choice of words? Did you get nervous?

They do? I figured "I don't have an opinion" meant "I'm not taking sides". I don't see a contradiction.

As for your thoughts on the Gayle NK:
I don't think Gayle was trying to goad scum into NKing him/her. The part about fooling town is just ridiculous. Why would Gayle wish to disable MS's game breaking method? Why would that be beneficial to town? Why should a hypothetical doc protect a dead player? I think you need to rephrase what you meant.

[Charlie]

What do you make of post 80, how did it read to you?

This post?

I know walrus wasn't lurking. But Magic Trainer stated that he felt like he was. So if he believed that he was lurking, regardless if in actuality walrus was not, isn't that a better vote than a random vote?

I'll let Magic answer that one. Sorry for interrupting.

It reads: "Seems like PatriotsDynasty09 was trying to get Magic Trainer to answer a question" to me. What's so special about it that's worth commenting on?

I figured "I don't have an opinion" meant "I'm not taking sides". I don't see a contradiction.

Saying that is much better. Now there is no contradiction. I got my eye on you. Where were you when all the attention was on you at the beginning of D2?

I don't think Gayle was trying to goad scum into NKing him/her. The part about fooling town is just ridiculous. Why would Gayle wish to disable MS's game breaking method? Why would that be beneficial to town? Why should a hypothetical doc protect a dead player? I think you need to rephrase what you meant.

Where did you get the idea that I was thinking that Gayle was trying to goad scum into killing him/her? Okay, I shall rephrase my theory:

Usually, a good VT would want to act like a PR in the hopes of throwing off scum. A PR would want to look like a VT to stay hidden from scum.
I think that Gayle did a good job of that, but was unfortunate to fool the (hypothetical) cop too. The overall outcome benefits town because if there is a cop, he's still with us.

So to asnwer your questions:
1) Gayle was NOT wishing to disable MS's game breaking strategy (Where did you even get this thought from?)
2) Already explained.
3) This question is invalid. A hypothetical doc that protected a targeted player N1 would mean that player is not dead D2. Get it?
4) I did rephrase it, and I feel this theory discussion could use input from our IC (I would like to learn!).

@ everyone:
The deadline is approaching, what is everyone's stance on the current lynch candidate? Please answer, lurking kills town's chances of winning (and it kills the game, too)

[MichelSableheart]

Welcome Charlie.

Kunkstar, we are three days away from deadline. The soft suspicion issue alone is not going to cut it for me. Why should we lynch LS over you?

Charlie, if you noted the input and analysis by me on page 15, surely you noted the preceding analysis on the bottom of page 14 too? Kyiv started attacking PD before even I did. Look at his ISO #17. Do you truly believe that's how scum would act to their partner?

I also find your reasoning for suspecting Kyiv rather weak. Lurking can be a valid scumtell, but not when we have interactions with a dead partner to take into account. Similary, the contradiction between "I have no opinion" and "townie mudslinging" is there, but is IMO not indicative of scum.

I'm definately not going to support a Kyiv lynch today.

Similary, I'm not willing to support a lynch of almightybob. My town read on him is too strong to lynch him over three more likely candidates. The same goes for LastSurvivor. I haven't seen a case against him yet.

For me, the three lynch options are Kunkstar, boberz and Charlie. Out of those three, Kunkstar is by far the best lynch.

[Charlie]

Charlie, if you noted the input and analysis by me on page 15, surely you noted the preceding analysis on the bottom of page 14 too? Kyiv started attacking PD before even I did. Look at his ISO #17. Do you truly believe that's how scum would act to their partner?

I also find your reasoning for suspecting Kyiv rather weak. Lurking can be a valid scumtell, but not when we have interactions with a dead partner to take into account. Similary, the contradiction between "I have no opinion" and "townie mudslinging" is there, but is IMO not indicative of scum.

I'm definately not going to support a Kyiv lynch today.

I cannot predict how scum will act to their partner. What I first thought of when I first read this game (and found out that PatriotsDynasty09 "ratted out" his scumbuddy) was the "ruined" newbie game 821 that was completed long time ago. I guess my chain of thought stemmed from there.

I get it that you find my accusations weak. Kunkstar7 isn't my ideal lynch candidate, but it is one I can support.

Michel, If it isn't too much trouble, can I get some IC input on this bit of game theory? I would like to know if its correct or wrong:

Usually, a good VT would want to act like a PR in the hopes of throwing off scum. A PR would want to look like a VT to stay hidden from scum.

[almightybob]

almightybob prodded

I'm here, still alive, still reading.


boberz, it seems like you have decided I am scum, and then gone back to look for evidence you can twist to support this decision. Other people have said that my so-called "bussing" does not fit with expected bussing timing or the flow of the game at that point, and yet you are saying "ah, but that's why it's so clever!". If you're still convinced, look at the reasons I have given for my decisions, and go back and consider my posts as if those reasons were true. Ask yourself if my actions fit based on the reasons I have given.

Also, I don't see where you're going with post 80. What were you expecting Charlie to see?

And we never got your case on Flareonage. What happened to that?

---------

As it were my vote is still on Lastsurvivor, yet only because of the soft suspicion issue.

This is a weak reason for a vote at this stage. Not gonna sway me away from you if that's all you have.

---------

Welcome Charlie, good enthusiastic entry to the game. However, I think you may be barking up the wrong tree with Kyiv. At this stage of the day anyway, I'm not going to vote for her. There's better options right now.

Usually, a good VT would want to act like a PR in the hopes of throwing off scum. A PR would want to look like a VT to stay hidden from scum.

But if a VT was acting like a power role, they would also throw off their teammates, and perhaps draw protections etc which would be more valuable elsewhere. And if only one or two people are acting like VTs and everyone else is acting like PRs, guess who the real PRs are?
This whole second-guessing-the-scum thing just leads to lots of WIFOM in my experience. It's better to just always play as active pro-Town, regardless of your role.

[kunkstar7]

As it were my vote is still on Lastsurvivor, yet only because of the soft suspicion issue.

This is a weak reason for a vote at this stage. Not gonna sway me away from you if that's all you have.

You are correct it is a weak reason. At this point I don't have a case built against, well, really anyone.

Any case on Flare/Charlie is based mostly on lurking and on Flare's blatant saying so.

One thing that bothered me is how Kyiv effectively has managed to not take on any suspicion this entire day due to the PD09 incident. Everyone just avoided it due to the large amount of WIFOM. If she makes it through the night I say she needs true scrutiny tomorrow.

[boberz]

bob, I think you are scum that much is clear. Decided is not a word i would use in htis context because i dont KNOW but I think that is strong.

I think the bussing is definately bussing. You just didnt do it right at the last minute which for some reason means some other players dont accept it, others said it did look like bussing. I have read the game in context, many times now, I still think this is the strongest point against anyone. I refuse to read you another time, just because you ask me to, you will have to accept that I have read you and find you scummy.

The response to post 80 was a good townie response from charlie, I feel no need to push it further. I was also concerned at flare lurking which for me is dispelled by a new player entering. Charlie, in the little I have seen from him strikes me as townie. I think his start to the game was similar to mine actually. My case on flare is consequently fizzling out, hence no need to post it. This does make you my stroongest read so far, other than a safe one on MS.

This collaboration on a lynch doesnt quite feel right to me, essentially whoever backs down first will lynch whoever doesnt back down. This is no way to do things. Town should be working together to actually decide a lynch rather than just stand steadfastly on their own suspect.

Kyiv, MS convince me of your reads please. Essentially I want you two (my safish reads) to show me why I should switch to your candidates.

[Lastsurvivor]

@MS: Sorry if I missed something here (did a quick iso, but I'm a bit tired), but what is your case on boberz? I do agree with you about Charlie, he just seems to be trying to put together a big analysis on null points. I liked RM though, so I'm not sure if he is actually scum.

I'm more comfortable with a Kunk lynch, atm. I don't want to hammer yet though.

[almightybob]

The response to post 80 was a good townie response from charlie, I feel no need to push it further.

Response to what? There's not much in post 80 to comment on either way. What would have been a scummy response?

My case on flare is consequently fizzling out, hence no need to post it.

Post it anyway, if only to show you actually had one. Otherwise we have some suspect behaviour from you - big post saying I'm scum, and yet concluding that Flare is scum for no obvious reason, withholding a case for unknown reasons. Setting yourself up for a later "hey look I said I was suspicious of Flare".

I'm more comfortable with a Kunk lynch, atm. I don't want to hammer yet though.

Why not? It's 3 days till deadline. What are you expecting could happen before then that would change things so dramatically?

[Kyiv]

This collaboration on a lynch doesnt quite feel right to me...town should be working together to actually decide a lynch rather than just stand steadfastly on their own suspect.

bob, I think you are scum that much is clear. Decided is not a word i would use in htis context because i dont KNOW but I think that is strong.

I think the bussing is definately bussing. You just didnt do it right at the last minute which for some reason means some other players dont accept it, others said it did look like bussing. I have read the game in context, many times now, I still think this is the strongest point against anyone. I refuse to read you another time, just because you ask me to, you will have to accept that I have read you and find you scummy.

?

What's stopping you from scrutinizing me now, Kunk?

Charlie: I asked you to rephrase because I was almost certain I was misunderstanding you. I thought you were trying to bring up a point with Gayle's play, but it turns out it was just a commentary.

I think you're confused, LS. Charlie replaced Flareonage, boberz replaced RM. I'd like to see more of you LS, you were doing so well D1

[kunkstar7]

I'm definately not going to support a Kyiv lynch today.

Because of opinions like this. Hopefully with today flip and the nightkill town will be able to get a better look at the remaining players tomorrow. At this point I don't think I have enough time to properly scrutinize your actions and change the entire town's mind if I could bring up a suitable case.

[Lastsurvivor]

@AB: I asked MS a question. It'd be rude to cut him off.
@Kyiv: Ohh, my bad. Misread the list. Kind of changes my perspective on the both of them. >.<

I've also been a bit glomped IRL, but I'm trying to up the activity.

[boberz]

If you think I am being hypocritical I was not kyiv, I was not. I actually asked others why they were voting who they were. I have also had other ideas about other people. But that does not mean I have to desert my reads either; that is what I meant working together.

bob, I am not your slave. There is no point me writing a case I believe to be false now, that was one reason I held off while flare wasnt posting. You can kind of find my thinking on flare in my notes if you really want, but it would waste your time.

A scummy response to #80 might have been to overreact or get defensive. charlie didnt, hence I am happy, that was the sole reason for asking the question. I have stated two reasons for my suspicion of flare, are you not reading my posts? You seem to be under the misaprehension that I can just copy and paste this in, I do have to write it, which means I have to spend time on it. No thanks.

[MichelSableheart]

Michel, If it isn't too much trouble, can I get some IC input on this bit of game theory? I would like to know if its correct or wrong:

Usually, a good VT would want to act like a PR in the hopes of throwing off scum. A PR would want to look like a VT to stay hidden from scum.

I personally think you are placing too much emphasis on the PR's remaining hidden there. Ideally, all pro-town players should be scumhunting the best they can. That way, scum will have a very difficult time finding the powerroles, who are playing just like everyone else. Any player trying to play worse then that to protect the powerroles is only hampering the town's ability to find the scum IMHO.

Kyiv, MS convince me of your reads please. Essentially I want you two (my safish reads) to show me why I should switch to your candidates.

We already discussed your read on almightybob, I can't add much more to that. I can attempt, however, to again disect kunkstar. Which will happen in my next post.

@MS: Sorry if I missed something here (did a quick iso, but I'm a bit tired), but what is your case on boberz? I do agree with you about Charlie, he just seems to be trying to put together a big analysis on null points. I liked RM though, so I'm not sure if he is actually scum.

I don't really have a case against boberz. However, I also don't have the town read on him that I have on Kyiv, almightybob, and you. Because I still could see him as scum, I would be willing to support his lynch if the mayority of the players thinks he's scum.

[MichelSableheart]

I promised a case against Kunkstar.

Day 1 started of with pressure on Magic Trainer. There were two players heavily involved in this pressure: Last Survivor and Kunkstar. the wagon was started by other players (particulary RandomMaster), but those two players pressed on and on.

What is interesting here is that Patriots didn't comment on it at all, when he showed eagerness to join the Medix wagon a few pages later. The most obvious explanation for that is, IMO, that his buddy was heavily involved in the discussion, either being attacked or one of the main attackers.

The next thing that happens is the Medix wagon. It is started by me and Kyiv. RandomMaster and Patriots joined in on the pressure about a page later. LastSurvivor is urging caution, as is RandomMaster, who states he wants to keep the wagon at L-2. Guess who ignores this cautioning to bring the wagon to L-1 anyway? Kunkstar, of course.

Then there is the explanation of his vote in #186. Kunkstar states that the main reason for voting Medix is that Medix has been very weak, not helping the town at all, and being an easy lynch target for scum. When LastSurvivor asks him if he actually believes Medix to be scum, he kind of avoids the question by going on a tangent how that isn't necessary for earlier votes. When I later state that voting players for being weak is the main cause of mislynches, he agrees with me, but keeps his vote on Medix anyway. In later explanations (#331), he even claimed that he mainly had a newbie town vibe from Medix. There is no reason to push for the lynch of someone you believe to be town, unless deadline is extremely near and there is no other alternative whatsoever.

On a related note, Patriots is defending Kunkstar in #190.

Interesting to note: the last paragraph of #218. kunkstar downplaying other players suspicion on Patriots.

The sarcastic response in #229 and #231 doesn't sit well with me. Potentially, Kunkstar is trying to seed suspicion against the replacement of Medix there. This is a weak point, though.

Patriots putting Kunkstar third in his list of suspicions, without actual explanation, feels like typical distancing, much more then his later attack on almightybob.

Kunkstar had more reason to nightkill Gayle then the other players had: Kunk was Gayle's second top suspect, after Patriots. However, with Patriots attack against Medix, it had become rather obvious that Gayle was pro-town, so this is a weak point.

Post #286 is immediately disbelieving Patriots claim, but not being very strong about it. By calling himself "really hesitant", Kunkstar keeps open the possibility of believing the claim later on. Kunkstar's vote of Patriots only comes after it is completely obvious that Patriots is scum.

----
To summarize:

• Kunkstars position against Magic Trainer in the beginning of day 1 is slightly suspicious.
  
• Kunkstars position on the Medix wagon is highly suspicious.
  
• Kunkstars position against Patriots was suspicious as well.
  
• Patriots behaviour towards Kunkstar felt like distancing.

[Charlie]

I personally think you are placing too much emphasis on the PR's remaining hidden there. Ideally, all pro-town players should be scumhunting the best they can. That way, scum will have a very difficult time finding the powerroles, who are playing just like everyone else. Any player trying to play worse then that to protect the powerroles is only hampering the town's ability to find the scum IMHO.

Okay. Thanks for your opinion on this! I must admit that I was hoping for a more concrete game theory answer, but this is just fine. I guess we can close this bit of theory discussion now.

Seems that other people think that my case is weak! I'm going to reread the thread from start to get a better grasp of the big picture and hopefully pick something up. (I might not be able to do so seeing how close the deadline is, but imma try.)

I think kunkstar7 needs to respond to MichelSableheart case at # 440.

[boberz]

I wasnt asking for you to discuss almighty bob again MS, just generally pontificating over the need for discussion. Can you elaborate on the Patriots distancing from Kunk I didnt read it that way. I am not sure his position on the MT wagon is that bad either. Your other two main points seem to hold up though.

[kunkstar7]

Day 1 started of with pressure on Magic Trainer. There were two players heavily involved in this pressure: Last Survivor and Kunkstar. the wagon was started by other players (particulary RandomMaster), but those two players pressed on and on.

What is interesting here is that Patriots didn't comment on it at all, when he showed eagerness to join the Medix wagon a few pages later. The most obvious explanation for that is, IMO, that his buddy was heavily involved in the discussion, either being attacked or one of the main attackers.

In both of these points I can be replaced with Lastsurvivor. He was a main attacker of Magic Trainer, and as such is a possible partner that Patriots ignored when he didn't comment. I find it weird that you use the pressure on Magic Trainer as a point, as when it was occurring you were fine with it:

I like the pressure on Magic Trainer, and was surprised to see that he had no votes on him at the top of this page. Walrushelmet, why did you FoS instead of vote him in post #67?

So for you to use my pressure on Magic Trainer as a point against me is hypocritical. Although the second point regarding Patriot is ok.

On a related note, Patriots is defending Kunkstar in #190.

I can kind of see this, but its more of a stretch. I see PD09 just trying to keep the wagon on Medix going.

Interesting to note: the last paragraph of #218. kunkstar downplaying other players suspicion on Patriots.

It was an IGMEOY. I don't think it held any weight to begin with. View Kyiv's post. Actually thank you for pointing this out. Kyiv's actions toward PD09 in this section regarding the IGMEOY is suspicious. She IGMEOY/FOS'ed Patriots on a gut feeling:

Can't really say, but his behavior so far has been off-putting. I think he is someone I want to be wary about.

If you say that PD09 putting me on his scumlist with no reasoning but a gut feeling is distancing, then this in effect is exactly the same thing Patriots did. She can now point out that she was suspicious of PD09 and use it as a point to defend herself. Except this time it works, because PD09 flipped scum and she is alive.

[Lastsurvivor]

@Kunk: Mmm, nice try, but MT was the one attacking me.

[kunkstar7]

Lastsurvivor, I was going off of what MichelSableHeart said:

Day 1 started of with pressure on Magic Trainer. There were

two players heavily involved in this pressure: Last Survivor and Kunkstar

. the wagon was started by other players (particulary RandomMaster), but

those two players pressed on and on

.

Emphasis mine.

So unless you wish to counter MS's comment on that as well, the point is valid.

[kunkstar7]

EBWOP: And just because someone is questioning you, it does not mean that you can't be pressuring in return. Most exchanges between two players pressure each other, its not just one way.

[Kyiv]

So for you to use my pressure on Magic Trainer as a point against me is hypocritical. Although the second point regarding Patriot is ok.

A hypocritical statement does not make it incorrect. This is just deflecting.

If you say that PD09 putting me on his scumlist with no reasoning but a gut feeling is distancing, then this in effect is exactly the same thing Patriots did. She can now point out that she was suspicious of PD09 and use it as a point to defend herself. Except this time it works, because PD09 flipped scum and she is alive.

Except, you know... I backed it up later. I mentioned my suspicions for exactly that reason I stated. I had nothing because Patriots posted nothing. As soon as I got evidence (however weak) I shoved it into the limelight (as well as MT because he was another one I was watching.)

Again, this isn't defending yourself, you're deflecting.

[kunkstar7]

At this point Kyiv I'm not defending myself. We are too close to deadline to try and sway this lynch, don't want to splinter it into a no-lynch. I know this isn't a game end as its not LyLo, and following my claim of Vanilla Townie its not a town win either. I will try and point out as much as I can see before this day's end, hopefully finding something the town can use tomorrow.

[Lastsurvivor]

@Kunk: Pressure is different than attacking. I was putting pressure on him, but I'm not the "main attacker" since I was the one being attacked first.