Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[dramonic]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 3 - RedCoyote, Farside, Fate - (L-9)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 9 - Hoopla, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Faraday, Devotress, The1fifi, Socrates - (L-3)

Jack

- 2 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart - (L-10)

Socrates

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-11)

wolframnhart

- 2 - curiouskarmadog, Jack - (L-10)

Players not voting: DocPotter, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum, Pomegranate

you're forgetting a teensy detail: The extra risk that two scums doubling up together have that a third town will join em.

that alone is a pretty huge risk :S

[Devotress]

I'm only arguing that it's a real enough possibility to discount using the numbers in either direction.

[dramonic]

what kind of split do you think plausible?

1-1-1-1-1?
1-1-1-2?
1-2-2?
1-1-3?
1-4?
2-3?

5 is not an option.

[Devotress]

I'm thinking more along the lines of 1-1-1-2 or 1-2-2.
I don't think they'd stack 3 on 1 number.

[dramonic]

therefore Hoopla's stat are fairly accurate. Taking 1-2-2 gives us a 37,5% to pick the right group, and if within a single group only one person exists, it gives for a 37,5% also of this person being scum.

We should REALLY lynch Fate.

[Devotress]

There you guys go with the numbers again. Stop applying factual numbers onto a theory. I agree with the theory I don't agree it's factual math.
I've never argued we shouldn't lynch fate by the way, but I want to lynch him cause he recieved a scum role pm not because he picked good draft numbers.


Tell you what, if hoopla and tonymontana both flip scum I probably wont try and lynch you. That's the security you're wanting out of this right dramonic?

[dramonic]

Yes, I'm obviously in dire need of being told that <_<

I'm trying to get accross to you that while Fate is scummy anyways, so his lynch is a pretty sure thing, I will eventually push for statistically good lynches, wether you dont like em stats or not.

Also, if you agree with the theory why dont you want to use it?

[Devotress]

Also, if you agree with the theory why dont you want to use it?

Because mafia know where they are on the list and I don't know where mafia are on the list. Mafia could, theoretically be low on the list and safely backing this plan. An acceptance of this plan sets up chain mislynched too, if scum aren't on the top of the list.
Not only does it set up potential chain mislynched, it sets up potential chain mislynched of the player slots that were likely to get the good roles like cop, vig, bulletproof.

Putting it simply, it plain benefits scum more than town. The worst case scenario of not following your plan is this:

Some scum are high on the list, and we don't vote them out based on numbers, we can still hit scum lower on the list, and we can still hit scum high on the list, by using normal scum hunting means.

The worst case scenario of following your plan though:

We vote out the highest people, killing off our best power roles, and giving the scum 2 free mislynched and 2 free night kills.




Tldr: Risk reward is that if you're right and we don't follow, we can still kill scum high on the list by other means, if you're wrong and we do follow, we give the scum 4 gaurenteed free kills.


See what I mean? I'm sure I rambled a bunch in this post, but I can't be bothered to clean it up unless it turned out unreadable.

[farside22]

If Hoopla is scum, then a scumbag was pushing logic that would encourage lynching people at the top of the draft order. What does this tell you about where most of the scum would actually be? C'mon, its not that complicated.

Why do you think that it's unlikely that scum didn't do well in the draft knowing now they got to talk before sending in their numbers?

Since my "group" contains only me, I am supposedly more likely to be scum, and, if you would see, the size of ones group is a direct function of where they are in the draft order

*looks at vote count*

See's fate as the main person with the most votes and looks back at socrates questionably.

[DocPotter]

Can someone tell me if in the first PyP game the first and second draft picks were killed early, ad if not would a former scum from that game say why?

I'm wondering if the wagon on Fate is worth it on the basis tha a town Fate might be an early scum target, as Fate himself alluded to concerning Socrates.

[wolframnhart]

Doc the last PyP game was linked on page 6, i think that should answer your question if you take a peek at it.

[Pomegranate]

Extremely large, time consuming catchup post here now!!

Vote FeFiFoFum

For doing the RVS wrong, and voting Socrates (srsly guys, if he's not dead tommorow he's either BP or scum).

But scum may not kill him for that exact reason- WIFOM.

--

BUT, it doesn't really matter. Number speculation is a waste of time. All that follows is WIFOM (Maybe scum had a few players all pick the same numbers as a perfect defense? Maybe they tried to spread things out to get more power?).

I would be extremely surprised if scum decided to all pick the same numbers- getting PRs is better for them than having that defense.

--

also, I am confused (

mod feel free to jump in with an answer

)

you said in 25 (of the sign up).

Also, if you're up on that list and you haven't got an alignment from me (I think everyone thus far has but) please send me a PM.

I didnt even /in until 33

soooo, how did that work? you assigned alignments before everyone inned?

I'm guessing he (randomly) assigned alignments to the signup numbers, and whoever filled that spot got that alignment. Having pre-inned, I received my alignment early.

--

Jack votes TM when 2 other people had 1/1 as their number. Plus hoopla did announce in the thread the numbers she picked so........???

But people could have sent in draft numbers before her.

I don't think that there is that much to learn from draft numbers. I think that scum probably did spread their numbers out, but CKD brings up the good point that it's likely that not all the scum checked the QT (or whatever) before submitting numbers. We can't learn much from the numbers now. Possibly later in the game- we'll see.

--

watching the following of the fate wagon 10 to 1 scum is on it. People just gliding by with a bw vote.

Yes definitely. But there are also townies who are enticed by the look of a good bandwagon to jump on.

--

Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.

No it won't. Certainly not yet. I agree with Jack here:

If it's [draft number discussion] useful, it will be later in the game.

--

It was a combination of reasons. I will likely want to lynch you or Socrates or a double today, and will probably pick the scummiest one of that set of players (barring significant slips from low draft picks).

You are currently the scummiest of that set, for reasons outside number analysis.

Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.

This post WINS.

--

The beauty of this is, if scum spread their choices across 5 different numbers, each group has equal chances of containing a scum. Basically, a better than 50/50 shot that a group has a scum in it. So by lynching Fate or Socrates, we have a ~50/50 shot of scum being in that group, but because they're the only ones in that group, it is 100% going to be them. As opposed to a 25% chance in a Group 8 or 9 lynch.

I do

not

agree. Fate or Socrates do not each have a 50% percent chance of being scum. Sorry.

--

Hi fate, why did you cite fake meta?

Elli, please explain.

--

I'm going to treat the number thing like meta, i.e. it can help a case but behavior in thread is still numero uno.

^^^ This.

--

I genuinely saw no reason for why mafia would want to pick different numbers.

Um, isn't there every reason scum want to pick different numbers? Like, say, to get PRs?

--

Future?

In the near future I am thinking about running this again (17 town - 5 mafia I think).

This is a good thing to keep under our hats. I mean, I'm assuming everyone already had a general number like this in their head, but it's still good information.

Why? Spyrex gave the setup in the signup thread.

--

question for all, who here played the first game? and can I have a link to it?

I did, but ad to replace out, which was not my own choice. So I am back.

Also, in that game there were two scum groups, each with three players, and an SK, as opposed to one scum group of five players.

--

I could totally go for a jack or fate lynch. or hoopla.

I'm willing to go for Hoopla. Then fate, then Jack.

--

Today we have a ~50 chance of hitting scum if we go for Socrates or Fate.

Seeing this statistic once again, I must ask

Hoopla: could you show me the math behind this?

I looked at 137. It fails.

--

Can someone tell me if in the first PyP game the first and second draft picks were killed early, ad if not would a former scum from that game say why?

I'm wondering if the wagon on Fate is worth it on the basis tha a town Fate might be an early scum target, as Fate himself alluded to concerning Socrates.

All I can remember off the top of my head is that Cobalt, obviously (he claimed D2, but it was known before then) was the vig. He survived un til the game ended.

--

Vote: Hoopla

.

HoS: Fate, Jack

.

[DocPotter]

Thanks Pom, that's the shorcut info I was looking for, but silly me was looking at the post game first.

Hoopla's numbers are right. It's the underlying assumptions that are optomistic I think. While I generally agree that the scum could try and hit five different x numbers, they might not have all wanted too/read the QT first, whatever.

The 55% chance, which is probability not statistics btw, sounds optomistic.

I think there is a better than average chance of finding a scum in the first four picks, but that's not enough to base a vote on. (That is, better than finding scum in any random set of four players)

At this point we hunt the scummy. Later on we worry about the numbers.

I'm still not sure about Fate. Wish he had answered better. He didn't even bother to check his own post to see the he said that FFFF voted soc when FFFF had FOS'ed him when asked about that. Minor thing though.

[Fate]

Haven't read past this, but this needs to be addressed immediately.

And yeah, you kinda do want to lynch a vengeful Fate. It gives town a double lynch during the day. Why would you not utilise it?

Um. What? Fifi voted me saying that I was scum vengeful, which gives scum an extra townie kill, not town an extra lynch. I am voting him because his thinking is contradictory, he wants to give scum an extra kill? Hopefully you misunderstood the premise, otherwise there is a serious flaw here.

[Fate]

EDWOP: Damn. The above quote is from Faraday, by the way.

[Fate]

Ok, I now understand the benefits of lynching a vengeful. Better to do it now than at a more critical point, and trading 1-1 is in favor of town.

Unvote

FOS: Jack, Pom

Jack: You haven't responded to Socrates post "What do YOU think about Fate?"

Pom: HoS, but in your catchup I didn't see any points against me, other than you were willing to lynch me.

[The1fifi]

Ok, I now understand the benefits of lynching a vengeful. Better to do it now than at a more critical point, and trading 1-1 is in favor of town.

Finally.

[Ellibereth]

All the posts with number strategies percentages and whatever are annoying the hell out of me.
I'll muck my way through it tomorrow and post something real tomorrow. It's my impression (and correct me if I'm wrong), that not too many people actually care about all the number/strategy/whatever stuff, so stop posting it and clogging the thread kthx.

[DocPotter]

Bugger the theory, lets hunt scum huh Elli?

Hoopla, why are you promoting your idea using the most optomistic odds? Why not use some more realistic numbers? Also, why Fate over Socrates? I don't think that Fate is that scummy. Don't think Soc is scummy either at the moment.
But I do think that Scum might try and mis-lynch the top picks. Especially after seeing Cobalt in PyP1.

[Hoopla]

All the posts with number strategies percentages and whatever are annoying the hell out of me.
I'll muck my way through it tomorrow and post something real tomorrow. It's my impression (and correct me if I'm wrong), that not too many people actually care about all the number/strategy/whatever stuff, so stop posting it and clogging the thread kthx.

That's a shame you don't want to use your brain, when it is the most important information we have.

~~

Pom, the numbers are accurate;

If scum are spread 1-1-1-1-1 over five different numbers, then Socrates and Fate have a ~56% chance each of being scum.

If scum are spread 1-1-1-2 over four different numbers, then Socrates and Fate have a ~44% chance each of being scum.

They have lower odds for combinations like 1-2-2 and 1-1-3 etc, which should be considered if you think it's a realistic possibility scum would do it. However, this quote suggests you don't think that;

I would be extremely surprised if scum decided to all pick the same numbers- getting PRs is better for them than having that defense.

Which is a good point, but contradicts being against the numbers. Because the numbers for 1-1-1-1-1 and 1-1-1-2 are solid.

[Socrates]

If Hoopla is scum, then a scumbag was pushing logic that would encourage lynching people at the top of the draft order. What does this tell you about where most of the scum would actually be? C'mon, its not that complicated.

Why do you think that it's unlikely that scum didn't do well in the draft knowing now they got to talk before sending in their numbers?

Since my "group" contains only me, I am supposedly more likely to be scum, and, if you would see, the size of ones group is a direct function of where they are in the draft order

*looks at vote count*

See's fate as the main person with the most votes and looks back at socrates questionably.

*Is Confused.*

This is like, the 5th time this game that someone as thrown suspicion at me for reasons that make absolutely no sense, even ignoring all of the FOSes I got for winning the draft.

[Jack]

The fate deal is in the weird position. It was a good page 2 case, that was bandwaggoned justifiable since there wasn't much to go on. But it's certainly not worth 9 votes now. We should see some shift off of him as people find new suspects, preferably to wolfram imo.

[Jack]

Hoopla's analysis is flawed. Townie and mafia are both trying to get the top spot. It's very unpredictable, you can't calculate the probabilities like you are. The fact that mafia probably picked 1-1-1-1-1/2 only makes it a little less unpredictable.

I don't think it's good play this early to force a claim from the 2nd drafter. Are we going to lynch him if he claims one of the top roles? No.

[Hoopla]

I don't think it's good play this early to force a claim from the 2nd drafter. Are we going to lynch him if he claims one of the top roles? No.

The risk is (generally) relative when it comes to lynching a claimed powerrole, as roles aren't in anyway related to alignment. You have to weigh up the value that role has for town, and then for scum. If it favours scum, or is neutral, then it isn't a bad lynch. Remember, they will only be in the position to claim if they are the scummiest player in the game.

Some examples;

The consensus decides Z is the scummiest in the game. Z claims vig - it is worth lynching as extra town kills aren't worth the possibility of scum having double kills. That is such a ridiculously powerful ability that can cripples towns so quickly.

The consensus decides Y is the scummiest in the game. Y claims cop - it is probably not worth lynching as it's town value is far better than it's scum value (nothing).

The consensus decides X is the scummiest in the game. X claims Governor - it is definitely worth lynching as it has so much more scum value than town. Preventing lynches deprives town of information, and gives scum another free nightkill. The only town motivation is preventing scum from having this role, but it is not worth the risk of leaving a potential scum governor alive.

[Fate]

^For the record, are you saying you want to see me put at L-1 and claim, Hoopla?