Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[dramonic]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 3 - RedCoyote, Farside, Fate - (L-9)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 9 - Hoopla, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Faraday, Devotress, The1fifi, Socrates - (L-3)

Hoopla

- 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Jack

- 2 - Rayfrost, wolframnhart - (L-10)

Socrates

- 1 - StrangerCoug - (L-11)

wolframnhart

- 1 - curiouskarmadog - (L-11)

Players not voting: DocPotter, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum, Pomegranate

question for all, who here played the first game?

I played it. Miserably.

ditto

[Jack]

unvote:Hoopla

The original case on Fate is quite decent, but I have to feel that mafia would try and make it runaway at some point, to possibly get Fate to claim, since he drafted 2nd. Too many people on it to tell, but bouncy looks the worst

lol vote Fate

"lol" as in "lol, this is easy?".

I voted for you because you said something that I don't think any townie with a brain would say.

I wasn't going off of Hoopla. I didn't even read anything she posted until like an hour ago.

What did fate say that you don't think any townie would say, and how come you skipped reading hoopla's posts? What posts did you read?

What is the Fate case? I just got done reading him in ISO and i still don't see whatever the 9 people voting him see ><

This sounds like mafia trying to distance from a wagon. Saying the fate bandwagon is bad is ok, but the "I'm so townie I don't even understand it, and btw I did an ISO read because I'm really looking for scum" sounds off to me. Especially since Fate did say something suspicious, and if wolf had reread the thread he would have seen it plain as day.

vote:wolframnhart"

[Socrates]

IVE GOT IT! If the higher up the list one is, the scummier one is, then obviously optimal play is to lynch straight down the list. We'll be sure to catch the scum this way.

I know you are being sarcastic, but is this what Hoopla's really advocating?

Its dressed up all fancily, but yes, that is pretty much what her argument distills down to. Since my "group" contains only me, I am supossedly more likely to be scum, and, if you would see, the size of ones group is a direct function of where they are in the draft order. Its an indirect way of attacking the people that are high up in the draft while ignoring their actual play in the game.

You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because

people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum

[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:

If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum

, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and

we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order

.

(emphasis added)

Does anyone else see this as contradictory?

If Hoopla's role order logic is scummy, why are you using it against her and Fate?

What? I don't think you understand me.

If Hoopla is scum, then a scumbag was pushing logic that would encourage lynching people at the top of the draft order. What does this tell you about where most of the scum would actually be? C'mon, its not that complicated.

Also, emphasis on majority. I didn't say that every scumbag would be in last place or anything.

[wolframnhart]

unvote:Hoopla

The original case on Fate is quite decent, but I have to feel that mafia would try and make it runaway at some point, to possibly get Fate to claim, since he drafted 2nd. Too many people on it to tell, but bouncy looks the worst

lol vote Fate

"lol" as in "lol, this is easy?".

I voted for you because you said something that I don't think any townie with a brain would say.

I wasn't going off of Hoopla. I didn't even read anything she posted until like an hour ago.

What did fate say that you don't think any townie would say, and how come you skipped reading hoopla's posts? What posts did you read?

What is the Fate case? I just got done reading him in ISO and i still don't see whatever the 9 people voting him see ><

This sounds like mafia trying to distance from a wagon. Saying the fate bandwagon is bad is ok, but the "I'm so townie I don't even understand it, and btw I did an ISO read because I'm really looking for scum" sounds off to me. Especially since Fate did say something suspicious, and if wolf had reread the thread he would have seen it plain as day.

vote:wolframnhart"

Love the way you are trying to put words in my mouth there Jake, even more lovely that NOW you are paying attentino to me (and yes I haven't forgotten that you still have ignored my question to you). I did an ISO on Fate because 9 people seem to believe he is scum, yes I seem to have missed whatever suspicious thing Fate seems to have said, I asked twice what this case is and no one has answered.

[Jack]

I didn't put words in your mouth. The part in quotes was the feel I got from your post.

If you actually wanted to know why I singled out tonymontana you would have reread and come up with a theory. If you actually wanted to know what the case on fate was, you would reread the part where he was accused, not just an ISO.

So my proposed theory: you are acting like you are interested in the scumhunting, but aren't actually. Or at least you are acting more interested than you are. There is a mismatch.

[Cobalt]

I could totally go for a jack or fate lynch. or hoopla.

[Socrates]

Hey, Jack, what do YOU think about Fate?

[Socrates]

You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because

people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum

[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:

If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum

, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and

we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order

.

(emphasis added)

Does anyone else see this as contradictory?

Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.

I'm sorry, but what?

I don't get what either of your points have to do with anything.

[StrangerCoug]

You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because

people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum

[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:

If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum

, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and

we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order

.

(emphasis added)

Does anyone else see this as contradictory?

Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.

I'm sorry, but what?

I don't get what either of your points have to do with anything.

There are 22 players in this game. You are first in the draft, Fate is second, and Hoopla is 17th. Fate being scum is not indicative of the scum in general doing poorly in the draft according to your logic, as 2

<

22/2.

[The1fifi]

@DocPower: I must have mixed up FFFF with someone else. It was just a joke vote anyway.

Also the person my current vote is on brought up vengeful here:

@Fate : How come is everything going accord to plan? How can someone's plan be : Getting Lynched? Well, i see only one role that benefits from being lynched, and that is vengeful. Lets take a look..

Townie Vengeful :

-Has no point in wanting to be lynched so early on, cause its more than like ly he would revenge kill a townie.

-Has scum : A 100% chance of removing a town aligned player...

Vote Fate

and 4 big Fos at Ellibereth

1. "Hmmm, I think Fate is breadcrumbing vengeful, and only scum would want to be lynched as vengeful."

2. /Proceeds to lynch me.

Anyone else see the stupidity in this? His argument against me is that I am scum because I "hinted" at vengeful (hint: I didn't), and then he proceeds to vote said vengeful?

Last time I checked, you DON'T want to lynch the vengeful. You want to vig them. Failarguements are always a good scumslip.

My dear, I have no problems lynchin a scum venge! Its one less for scum, and one less to town. wich benefits town, since we are higher on numbers

[wolframnhart]

You are using "feel" as part of a case against me, which has no merit coming from you.

You want me to come up with a "theory" as to why you voted TM fine here is one, you voted on pure BS, hoping to see where the vote went, when you were asked about it, you couldn't come up with something as simple as "Just picked him out of the other two people that did (1,1) as their numbers, RVS and all." Instead you refused to answer a really simple question, ignored the question completely, and all in all acted very scummy because of it. In other words you wanted to look like you were hunting without hunting.

Later you even vote FFFF, with your very next post saying maybe you were confused and he could have meant a different thing, and didn't unvote him for it.

Here is where it gets fun. You vote TM for numbers, but later state:

My opinion on the numbers debate: There is nothing to be gained in terms of scum hunting from the draft order, even if the scum had been able to talk before submiting numbers (which it doesn't sound like they were able to,to me) it's just a huge wifom trap.

Yes, this is somewhat my position. It could possibly be useful at some point, but it's a terrible starting place.

A terrible starting place you say, yet where did you start? Oh right on the numbers thing imagine that?

You call the case on fate "quite decent" yet you never made any mention to it before then, you say bouncy looks the worst on that wagon, yet you vote me for asking what the case on fate even was.

If anything I really like my vote where it is still.

[Faraday]

Stuff etc.

Yeah, Fate needs to come up with this meta on Elli or shut up about it. (Seems like it's gonna be the latter)

Does anyone else see this as contradictory?

If Hoopla's role order logic is scummy, why are you using it against her and Fate?

I don't see this as contradictory but I can understand how it would be read that way.

Glad to see basically nothing has happened except a huge bickering battle and Fate being scummy :3

If you think he's scummy then why no vote?

What is the Fate case? I just got done reading him in ISO and i still don't see whatever the 9 people voting him see ><

Uhh, well I think 'His any scum want to claim and tell us' seems contrived in his early post.
Then he throws dirt on the 1 person ahead of him in the draft, for no apparent reason with some ridiculous reasoning in that if he doesn't die he's scum or BP

I haven't really liked a whole lot he has said really. I'm not sure I understand his vote on the1fifi. In fact it makes no sense as wanting to lynch a vengeful (if he's scummy obviously) is good play as it gives us a double lynch in the day.

Throw in a bit of gut too and I think we're set.

How did you not notice any of this? or do you find none of that scummy?

[Jack]

You want me to come up with a "theory" as to why you voted TM fine here is one

But this is exactly my point. You are coming up with this

now

. Before, you were "just curious" and didn't want to ignore it. But why wouldn't you have some theory? The very fact that you think it is worth questioning should mean that you have some opinion about it.

Same with your comments about my FeFi vote. You don't try and look into why I voted him. But you would

have

to do that in order to think it was scummy that I didn't unvote him. You would have to think that the thing I was confused about was central to my reason to vote him.

Now you are making a case on me, based on the fact that my first post random vote contradicts my statements made about not voting based on numbers. This is the first time you have brought this up, despite the fact that my very first post contained the contradiction, and you didn't question it then. You only questioned why I picked tm and not the other 2.

My original point stands: you ask several times about the Fate case, and make sure to mention you did an ISO, but a simple piece of rereading would have shown you the case. The thread is only 7 pages.

It looks like you are just trying to pick out things that could be seen as suspicious, rather than actually suspecting. You say that things are scummy or not scummy, but your actions don't show that you actually think that.

***************

For the points you brought up:

I thought FeFi's post was weird, and did understand it wrong the first time. But even with the alternate interpretation, he is still just grabbing reasons from the thread and fos'ing based on them. I still was, and still am interested in why that was.

I was entirely serious about the comment I made before voting tony. I don't think we should be voting based on numbers. But it's page one and I didn't want to be too serious so I threw in a bit of irony and picked TM at random.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, assuming I agree with your post 137, which I conceptually do, how do you propose we choose which groups (or neighborhoods) have scum in them? I mean, is Socrates right? Do you really propose we lynch straight down the list until we hit paydirt?

Each group has equal chances of containing

a

scum, as scum can't know what numbers town would have selected. However, the less amount of people in the group, the less places that scum could be (if there is a scum in the group). Ideally I'd like to lynch singulars/doubles until we've found two scum, and then assess the game from there, but I know nobody here wants to delve into the wonderful world of numbers.

I think the most realistic option we have to bring us closer to playing optimally, is lynch only today based on numbers. On Day 2 we have role information, alignment flips, vote analysis and other reliable sources of information available. Number analysis should still be used, but it may take the backseat to everything else, which I'm fine with. For now, we should lynch the scummiest (in the

traditional

way) singlular/double.

Today we have a ~50 chance of hitting scum if we go for Socrates or Fate. Number analysis gives us these odds, but nobody wants to play them. Do people really value their own scumhunting abilities

that

much, that they'd rather lynch in a traditional manner, and have a maybe 20% of hitting scum? Let it be known, I have a bleak view of Day 1 normally, and believe it is a lot more random than some think. But in this game, we actually have information to start with! I'm so frustrated nobody wants to use it. You can do your iso-whatevers, buddying tells, wagon analysis etc tomorrow when that information surfaces, but now, numbers are our best option.

[Devotress]

We actually have a 4.5% chance of hitting scum, if anyone was wondering.

There are plenty of people who want to lynch fate though(me), but your numbers case is bad. You're overblowing the numbers way too much, and you're doing the fate wagon no favours with all this numbers talk. No matter how many percent chances you decide to make up(and making up IS what you are doing with "50%"), it just sounds like you're trying to justify lynching all power roles.

[wolframnhart]

First, thank you faraday for answering me about the Fate case.
Now then to answer your question.

Then he throws dirt on the 1 person ahead of him in the draft, for no apparent reason with some ridiculous reasoning in that if he doesn't die he's scum or BP

See I thought when Fate said:

Vote FeFiFoFum For doing the RVS wrong, and voting Socrates (srsly guys, if he's not dead tommorow he's either BP or scum).

I didn't see it as dirt throwing, nor did I see it even being towards Socrates, i thought he was saying FFFF is BP or scum. What does BP even mean btw?

The "any scum want to tell us" thing i took more as a joke then something serious.

With the vote against The1fifi I didn't even think of Fate as vengful lyncher based off his "According to plan" quote though maybe i should have. Still though it seems to be a mistake between townies to me, since I don't see much but tom foolery coming from Fate at this time.

[Devotress]

With the vote against The1fifi I didn't even think of Fate as vengful lyncher based off his "According to plan" quote though maybe i should have.

I took that post as him being jokey about getting votes. I think people making it overly clear how calm and jokey they are about their wagon seem scummy.

[Hoopla]

We actually have a 4.5% chance of hitting scum, if anyone was wondering.

There are plenty of people who want to lynch fate though(me), but your numbers case is bad. You're overblowing the numbers way too much, and you're doing the fate wagon no favours with all this numbers talk. No matter how many percent chances you decide to make up(and making up IS what you are doing with "50%"), it just sounds like you're trying to justify lynching all power roles.

Do you understand my logic in post 137? If you don't, I will try and betterly explain it for you. If you do, please tell me where my logic fails, and you get the impression I'm making it up.

[Devotress]

Do you understand my logic in post 137? If you don't, I will try and betterly explain it for you. If you do, please tell me where my logic fails, and you get the impression I'm making it up.

Your logic doesn't fail(though I personally don't want to lynch that way), and I see where you're coming from. It fails when you start to call it a mathematical statistic. It isn't. It's based on an assumption of an unproven theory. The theory can be sound and accurate, but when you start assigning math to it you're making stuff up. Any number you assign to it other than 4.5% is wrong.


You get what I mean?

[Devotress]

Basically I mean the numbers act like a fact when it isn't one yet, and you're assigning numbers is like trying to force people to accept your theory as if it was a mathematical fact.

[Hoopla]

Do you understand my logic in post 137? If you don't, I will try and betterly explain it for you. If you do, please tell me where my logic fails, and you get the impression I'm making it up.

Your logic doesn't fail(though I personally don't want to lynch that way), and I see where you're coming from. It fails when you start to call it a mathematical statistic. It isn't. It's based on an assumption of an unproven theory. The theory can be sound and accurate, but when you start assigning math to it you're making stuff up. Any number you assign to it other than 4.5% is wrong.


You get what I mean?

In the theory I illustrated the only unproven assumption is the scum are on 4 or 5 X numbers. If that is true, then there is no other variable, and the numbers are reliable. However, I stated this at the end of my post;

The only way this is not correct is if scum have tripled up somewhere, or doubled twice (meaning their numbers are in only 2/3 groups). You must prove this is a viable possibility for scum before disputing my numbers (wifom is not an accepted answer).

This says the numbers are different if scum are in only 2/3 sets of X values, which I deem very slim, as it is an illogical, nonsense gambit for scum to even consider, as it guarentees very low draft picks.

In the slim chance scum have done just this, the town has enough potent roles to compensate for a D1 numbers based lynch. If the scum are on 4/5 X numbers, then my percentages are correct, and not a lie.

I see where you are coming from though. They are numbers based on an assumption. But in this assumption, the numbers are truthful. I guess it depends on how likely you deem this assumption to be. If it is highly likely to be true, doesn't it make it worthwhile to pursue such good odds on D1?

~~

Do you think scum have doubled up? Would you have suggested doing as scum? What about tripling up? How many different X numbers do you think scum chose?

[Devotress]

I do believe scum doubling up is a realistic possibility.
Look how many people on the list got relatively high up with a secondary number. It would be perfectly reasonable for scum to double up and still expect to have a good chance of getting middle of the road. Middle of the road is good enough to probably still grab a good scum power.
Hell, in the last Pick your Power I was The

20th

person to pick a power and I still landed a decent scum power.
The free cheap distancing* from doubling up is worth it.


*not really the right use of distancing, but you get what I mean.

[dramonic]

you should give the scum more credit <<

[Devotress]

For reference, to show why scum could assume they could double up and still have a good shot at getting power roles, here is the top 6 on the draft list from the first pick your power:

1.) Cobalt (3,4)
2.) Elvis_Knits (6,15)
3.) Vi (12,6)
4.) Chamber (14,15)

5.) StrangerCoug (4,7)

6.) Faraday (4,12)

I bolded Strangercoug, because he was the highest person who doubled up, and everyone below him also doubled up.
As you can see, many people who doubled up still ended up very high on the draft list(5 and lower).
and if you look at this games draft list, doubled up people faired even higher, with the first doubled person appearing at THIRD.

Socrates (12,1)
Fate (13,4)

bouncy.bouncy (2,1)

Cobalt (2,10)

I think the Risk/reward as far as doubling up goes, is worth it. If I was scum I would have advocated it.

[Devotress]

Hoopla accidentally convinced me that atleast a couple scum doubled up when I wasn't thinking that earlier