Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Socrates]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 3 - RedCoyote, Farside, Fate - (L-9)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 9 - Hoopla, Socrates, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Faraday, Devotress, The1fifi - (L-3)

Hoopla

- 1 - Jack - (L-11)

Jack

- 3 - Rayfrost, StrangerCoug, wolframnhart - (L-9)

wolframnhart

- 1 - curiouskarmadog - (L-11)

Players not voting: DocPotter, Dramonic, FeFiFoFum, Pomegranate

I would definitely not pick the same number as my teammates. That is what I would do, but I don't know what scum in

this

game has done. Maybe they did spread their choices out, maybe they did double up. But people are selfish, who is going to agree "sure I'll double up and likely not get a role." Also the fact that they only had so much time to choose their numbers, I don't know if they debated the issue enough.

It would take a mature mindset to be willing to sacrifice your chance at a role, to be hidden from number analysis. But is it even worth it for scum? As scum, you cannot afford to let town get many of the good roles by trying to get cute.

Perhaps a more visual approach to my theory would be helpful;

We have 9 sets of numbers, yes?

1) Socrates
2) Fate
3) bouncy.bouncy, Cobalt
4) RayFrost, Redcoyote
5) Jack, FeFiFoFum
6) StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart
7) Devotress, Porkens, DocPotter
8) Ellibereth, Dramonic, Hoopla, TonyMontana
9) Farside, curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate, Faraday

Now, there is a good chance, that 5 of those 9 groups contain one scum each. An outside chance that only 4 of those groups contain scum, but one group has two. But for the sake of this exercise, lets assume it's best case scenario for town, and scum decided to spread themselves across 5 different numbers.

There is little logical reason to try for a lynch in Group 8 or Group 9. At best there is a 25% chance of a scum lynch, and a decent chance none are there at all. Groups 6 and 7 are slightly better, but again, if we go higher up the list, we have better chances of hitting in smaller groups.

The beauty of this is,

if

scum spread their choices across 5 different numbers, each group has equal chances of containing

a

scum. Basically, a better than 50/50 shot that a group has a scum in it. So by lynching Fate or Socrates, we have a ~50/50 shot of scum being in that group, but because they're the only ones in that group, it is 100% going to be them. As opposed to a 25% chance in a Group 8 or 9 lynch.

Even if scum have doubled up once, the same principal applies (higher up the list, the scummier), but with slightly weaker odds. But really, from reactions of the questions I've asked others about what they'd do as scum, I think it is more than likely than scum are in fact in 5 different groups (which is such a good position for town to be in)!

IVE GOT IT! If the higher up the list one is, the scummier one is, then obviously optimal play is to lynch straight down the list. We'll be sure to catch the scum this way.

unvote,vote:Socrates

There is no way this can go wrong. Nope, not at all. I mean, its not like the scum can manipulate where they are in the draft order, right?

Scum are also always perfect and it is absolutely inconceivable that they might have screwed up and ended up low in the draft order.

someone is going to take this post seriously, and then I am going to ram my head through my moniter.

[farside22]

from the queue line:

Note: The mafia will be able to talk before the draft begins for a period of approximately 24 hours.

This doesn't say they could talk when they picked numbers but after the draft begins. But I think the mod should confirm this for us.

[Socrates]

Seriously Hoopla, what you are pushing is just an elaborate version of what I voted fate for. You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum because it gives the scum a free pass to lynch all of the dangerous townies who did well in the draft and that would severely cripple the town.

NOTE TO THE TOWN: If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order.

Now that my point has been made, my vote goes back to where it should be, on an actual scum:

unvote, vote:Fate

[Socrates]

Also, aside from a few roles such as Vig, most of the best roles for the scum (Rolecop, Roleblocker, Empowerer, and so on) are unlikely to be drafted by townies, regardless of where they are in the draft, so the scum team can afford to have at least a few of their members intentionally do poorly in the draft in order.

(Last game, Empowerer was drafted, like, 3rd from the bottom and Roleblocker never got drafted at all.)

[Cobalt]

Also, aside from a few roles such as Vig, most of the best roles for the scum (Rolecop, Roleblocker, Empowerer, and so on) are unlikely to be drafted by townies, regardless of where they are in the draft, so the scum team can afford to have at least a few of their members intentionally do poorly in the draft in order.

(Last game, Empowerer was drafted, like, 3rd from the bottom and Roleblocker never got drafted at all.)

But Vi took Framer and he was like 2nd.

[Socrates]

Also, aside from a few roles such as Vig, most of the best roles for the scum (Rolecop, Roleblocker, Empowerer, and so on) are unlikely to be drafted by townies, regardless of where they are in the draft, so the scum team can afford to have at least a few of their members intentionally do poorly in the draft in order.

(Last game, Empowerer was drafted, like, 3rd from the bottom and Roleblocker never got drafted at all.)

But Vi took Framer and he was like 2nd.

Vi is the exception that proves the rule. Going off of memory, I think the only other townie who drafted a pro-scum role that game was Dram, and he was last.

[StrangerCoug]

a scum bomb would be pretty awesome for town actually

How so?

I would definitely not pick the same number as my teammates. That is what I would do, but I don't know what scum in

this

game has done. Maybe they did spread their choices out, maybe they did double up. But people are selfish, who is going to agree "sure I'll double up and likely not get a role." Also the fact that they only had so much time to choose their numbers, I don't know if they debated the issue enough.

It would take a mature mindset to be willing to sacrifice your chance at a role, to be hidden from number analysis. But is it even worth it for scum? As scum, you cannot afford to let town get many of the good roles by trying to get cute.

Perhaps a more visual approach to my theory would be helpful;

We have 9 sets of numbers, yes?

1) Socrates
2) Fate
3) bouncy.bouncy, Cobalt
4) RayFrost, Redcoyote
5) Jack, FeFiFoFum
6) StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart
7) Devotress, Porkens, DocPotter
8) Ellibereth, Dramonic, Hoopla, TonyMontana
9) Farside, curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate, Faraday

Now, there is a good chance, that 5 of those 9 groups contain one scum each. An outside chance that only 4 of those groups contain scum, but one group has two. But for the sake of this exercise, lets assume it's best case scenario for town, and scum decided to spread themselves across 5 different numbers.

There is little logical reason to try for a lynch in Group 8 or Group 9. At best there is a 25% chance of a scum lynch, and a decent chance none are there at all. Groups 6 and 7 are slightly better, but again, if we go higher up the list, we have better chances of hitting in smaller groups.

The beauty of this is,

if

scum spread their choices across 5 different numbers, each group has equal chances of containing

a

scum. Basically, a better than 50/50 shot that a group has a scum in it. So by lynching Fate or Socrates, we have a ~50/50 shot of scum being in that group, but because they're the only ones in that group, it is 100% going to be them. As opposed to a 25% chance in a Group 8 or 9 lynch.

Even if scum have doubled up once, the same principal applies (higher up the list, the scummier), but with slightly weaker odds. But really, from reactions of the questions I've asked others about what they'd do as scum, I think it is more than likely than scum are in fact in 5 different groups (which is such a good position for town to be in)!

Why is the back of my head screaming "gambler's fallacy"?

[Cobalt]

a scum bomb would be pretty awesome for town actually

How so?

if they get vigged, we trade 1 for 1 and don't have to worry about vigs shooting town/scum claiming vig/sorting out kills/general tomfoolery

[SpyreX]

If you /in I will PM you town or scum. AT THAT POINT if you may choose to give me draft numbers.

Or, you can wait until they must be in.

Note: The mafia will be able to talk

before the draft begin

s for a period of approximately 24 hours.

Hmmph

[farside22]

If you /in I will PM you town or scum. AT THAT POINT if you may choose to give me draft numbers.

Or, you can wait until they must be in.

Note: The mafia will be able to talk

before the draft begin

s for a period of approximately 24 hours.

Hmmph

Thank you. I have been sick so finding things and clarification helps.

[DocPotter]

I'm kinda thinking that the nine groups are kinda like neighbourhoods. I know they can't communicate or such but, some will contain no scum, some one scum, maybe one with two scum.

Not a reason to vote for somebody, but a reason to study groups carefully.

Vote FeFiFoFum For doing the RVS wrong, and voting Socrates (srsly guys, if he's not dead tommorow he's either BP or scum).

FFFF didn't vote Socrates.

Care to explain?

Someone brought up Vengeful townie in relation to Fate. Is there a good case for scum to take it?

[Hoopla]

Someone brought up Vengeful townie in relation to Fate. Is there a good case for scum to take it?

It's basically like a one-shot guarenteed vig shot for scum. The only way they don't get to use this power is if that scum is vigged themself - but there is a chance the vigilante is scum, which means double scum kills. I really think we need to keep an eye on the secondry kill choices to assess if we think the vig is town or scum, because allowing scum double kills for 3+ nights will screw us over badly.

[Hoopla]

I'm kinda thinking that the nine groups are kinda like neighbourhoods. I know they can't communicate or such but, some will contain no scum, some one scum, maybe one with two scum.

Not a reason to vote for somebody, but a reason to study groups carefully.

This is kind of true, and I want to try and explain my point one more time before I give up, because I think people don't understand my posts very well.

~~

The X number determines what group (or neighbourhood) you're placed in. At the very least, I think almost all of us have agreed, at the very least scum are on 4 different X numbers (with the possibility of 5).

Because the scum couldn't know what town picked, they don't know how many groups of what size there will be. They can only control how many groups they want to be in.

If there is scum in 4 X groups, this gives each

group

a 4/9 chance of having scum in it. If there is a scum in 5 different groups, each

group

has a 5/9 of having a scum in it. Therefore, it is logical to lynch from the smallest group if all groups have equal chance of having

a

scum in it.

~~

An example assuming scum are in 4 different groups;

Group 1; 4/9 chance of a scum being here. Then, a 1/1 chance it is Socrates (~44%)
Group 9; 4/9 chance of a scum being here. Then, a 1/4 chance it is Faraday (~11%) (Though there is a slim chance the double up is here, which makes it hard to calculate, but I would put it at no more than a 5% increase)

An example assuming scum are in 5 different groups;

Group 2; 5/9 chance of a scum being here. Then, a 1/1 chance it is Fate (~56%)
Group 8; 5/9 chance of a scum being here. Then, a 1/4 chance it is TonyMontanna (~14%)


The only way this is not correct is if scum have tripled up somewhere, or doubled twice (meaning their numbers are in only 2/3 groups). You must prove this is a viable possibility for scum before disputing my numbers (wifom is not an accepted answer).

[Fate]

@DocPower: I must have mixed up FFFF with someone else. It was just a joke vote anyway.

Also the person my current vote is on brought up vengeful here:

@Fate : How come is everything going accord to plan? How can someone's plan be : Getting Lynched? Well, i see only one role that benefits from being lynched, and that is vengeful. Lets take a look..

Townie Vengeful :

-Has no point in wanting to be lynched so early on, cause its more than like ly he would revenge kill a townie.

-Has scum : A 100% chance of removing a town aligned player...

Vote Fate

and 4 big Fos at Ellibereth

1. "Hmmm, I think Fate is breadcrumbing vengeful, and only scum would want to be lynched as vengeful."

2. /Proceeds to lynch me.

Anyone else see the stupidity in this? His argument against me is that I am scum because I "hinted" at vengeful (hint: I didn't), and then he proceeds to vote said vengeful?

Last time I checked, you DON'T want to lynch the vengeful. You want to vig them. Failarguements are always a good scumslip.

[Faraday]

well i didnt understand the process of the draft..obviously so, since I was at the last of the draft...

so many wagons already. am I surprised that the wagons are on people close to the top of the draft?...no, those are probably the better roles that scum want eliminated. at any rate..

This is a dangerous road to go down. if people are legit scummy their position shouldn't matter. A lot of people made the same argument against lynching Elvis Knits last time and she turned out to be scum.

And yeah, you kinda do want to lynch a vengeful Fate. It gives town a double lynch during the day. Why would you not utilise it?
I kinda see Hoopla's point about the percentages now and I think she may have something going there, but I won't be soley depending on number analysis. In fact I think Elli's comparison to Meta is quite a good one for me too, it might help but it shouldn't be the sole focus.

[RedCoyote]

Future?

In the near future I am thinking about running this again (17 town - 5 mafia I think).

This is a good thing to keep under our hats. I mean, I'm assuming everyone already had a general number like this in their head, but it's still good information.

---

also, I hate the term "to be honest'...have you not been honest yet red?

To be honest, I use it a lot, but I'll try not to do it in this game.

But to answer your question, yes I have. I only say "to be honest" when I'm making a confession of sorts.

---

Well I'll find it one of these days, heading to work now. Either way, a game in which someone with a female sounding name replaced someone during N1 and then came in D2 and claimed cop with a guilty exists.

Somewhere out there.

Well, I think you need to retract your assertion at the very least, and take another objective look at Elli after doing so.

---

IVE GOT IT! If the higher up the list one is, the scummier one is, then obviously optimal play is to lynch straight down the list. We'll be sure to catch the scum this way.

I know you are being sarcastic, but is this what Hoopla's really advocating?

You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because

people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum

[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:

If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum

, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and

we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order

.

(emphasis added)

Does anyone else see this as contradictory?

If Hoopla's role order logic is scummy, why are you using it against her and Fate?

---

Hoopla, assuming I agree with your post 137, which I conceptually do, how do you propose we choose which groups (or neighborhoods) have scum in them? I mean, is Socrates right? Do you really propose we lynch straight down the list until we hit paydirt?

[StrangerCoug]

You are trying to lay down the seeds of paranoia that just because

people did well in the draft that they are likely scum.

Your logic is so absurdly pro-scum

[...]

NOTE TO THE TOWN:

If Hoopla and/or Fate flip scum

, then the scum team did really bad in the draft (whether intentionally or not) and

we will find a majority of the scum in the back half of the draft order

.

(emphasis added)

Does anyone else see this as contradictory?

Yes I do, since Socrates has the top slot and Fate is right behind him.

Unvote: Jack
Vote: Socrates

Partly that, partly because of my memory of getting quicklynched as SK on Day 1 last time for stating I didn't see a case on a player I was voting as I see only minor differences in context.

[dramonic]

Glad to see basically nothing has happened except a huge bickering battle and Fate being scummy :3

1) Call me crazy, but I think Hoopla's idea is pretty simple. I like.
2) If something happens that redirects the wagon, I'd like for Fate to hammer (or Socrates on a Fate wagon)

@TM: That supposes I took the same role as you

@Socrates: On the contrary, the fact you have a quite higher chance to get lynched than people in large X pools means you are less likely to be scumkilled

@Fate: Of course we wanna lynch vengeful! If you are scum, the earlier you die the better for us, if you are town you get a chance to buy back your scumminess

[wolframnhart]

Alright my tiny lil brain will probably never wrap itself around this numbers thing, so I think I will take a page out of Eli's book and treat it like meta, and I am not a fan of meta.

What exactly is this case against Fate? Is it based on the numbers thing or did i completely miss something?

[curiouskarmadog]

"to be honest" I am a little lost with the numbers. i like to think of myself as an intelligent guy, but I think this line of thinking is above me. there might be something there, there might not be. Feel like we are not scum hunting, but it is day 1 and maybe there is something to it. I need a reference point though.

question for all, who here played the first game? and can I have a link to it?

also I love farside....dear, who should I vote for?

[Devotress]

So I was wrong, and there is some merit in the numbers game, but there is only merit as far as after we have flips. eg: Spyrex is probably not Vi's scum buddy because Spyrex and Vi both picked 2.
I still say that using the numbers before we have flips is plain silly though, scum could have easily picked the same thing as a bunch of townies. There is nothing town telly about being in a multi picked number.

question for all, who here played the first game? and can I have a link to it?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12937

It hurts me to link that thread for how bad scum(which I was) did that game.

[StrangerCoug]

question for all, who here played the first game?

I played it. Miserably.

[Faraday]

"to be honest" I am a little lost with the numbers. i like to think of myself as an intelligent guy, but I think this line of thinking is above me. there might be something there, there might not be. Feel like we are not scum hunting, but it is day 1 and maybe there is something to it. I need a reference point though.

question for all, who here played the first game? and can I have a link to it?

also I love farside....dear, who should I vote for?

The draft worked different in the first game, so looking at that for anything to do with numbers won't help.

I played it too, though so yeah, it's a good read in general I'd say. Kickass town ftw~!

And I'd definitely say there's scumhunting going on. I think the fate case is good.

[wolframnhart]

What is the Fate case? I just got done reading him in ISO and i still don't see whatever the 9 people voting him see ><

[farside22]

also I love farside....dear, who should I vote for?

I'm voting for bouncy now and his reason on what a townie wouldn't say is laughable to me right now.

I'll have more for everyone hopefully tomorrow. I'm still not feeling so great today