It would take a mature mindset to be willing to sacrifice your chance at a role, to be hidden from number analysis. But is it even worth it for scum? As scum, you cannot afford to let town get many of the good roles by trying to get cute.Fate wrote: I would definitely not pick the same number as my teammates. That is what I would do, but I don't know what scum inthisgame has done. Maybe they did spread their choices out, maybe they did double up. But people are selfish, who is going to agree "sure I'll double up and likely not get a role." Also the fact that they only had so much time to choose their numbers, I don't know if they debated the issue enough.
Perhaps a more visual approach to my theory would be helpful;
We have 9 sets of numbers, yes?
1) Socrates
2) Fate
3) bouncy.bouncy, Cobalt
4) RayFrost, Redcoyote
5) Jack, FeFiFoFum
6) StrangerCoug, The1fifi, wolframnhart
7) Devotress, Porkens, DocPotter
8) Ellibereth, Dramonic, Hoopla, TonyMontana
9) Farside, curiouskarmadog, Pomegranate, Faraday
Now, there is a good chance, that 5 of those 9 groups contain one scum each. An outside chance that only 4 of those groups contain scum, but one group has two. But for the sake of this exercise, lets assume it's best case scenario for town, and scum decided to spread themselves across 5 different numbers.
There is little logical reason to try for a lynch in Group 8 or Group 9. At best there is a 25% chance of a scum lynch, and a decent chance none are there at all. Groups 6 and 7 are slightly better, but again, if we go higher up the list, we have better chances of hitting in smaller groups.
The beauty of this is,
if
scum spread their choices across 5 different numbers, each group has equal chances of containing a
scum. Basically, a better than 50/50 shot that a group has a scum in it. So by lynching Fate or Socrates, we have a ~50/50 shot of scum being in that group, but because they're the only ones in that group, it is 100% going to be them. As opposed to a 25% chance in a Group 8 or 9 lynch.Even if scum have doubled up once, the same principal applies (higher up the list, the scummier), but with slightly weaker odds. But really, from reactions of the questions I've asked others about what they'd do as scum, I think it is more than likely than scum are in fact in 5 different groups (which is such a good position for town to be in)!
