Hi, confirm and all.
Spyrex should already know from PYP 1, but
I disagree with this. I think maybe at the most 2 people in the scum group picked the same first number but I can't imagine they all did this then the likelihood of getting a PR goes down and why would scum not want to be in the best position for a PR?socrates
The scum doubled up on one of their picks, mark my words.
um, thats exactly what I said, Farside.farside22 wrote:I disagree with this. I think maybe at the most 2 people in the scum group picked the same first number but I can't imagine they all did this then the likelihood of getting a PR goes down and why would scum not want to be in the best position for a PR?socrates
The scum doubled up on one of their picks, mark my words.
uh, did you play the last game?Hoopla wrote:People who are rejecting the concept of number analysis are idiots. It is as much wifom as vote/wagon analysis and other mainstream scumhunting techniques.
We know scum were able to coordinate before/during the draft (despite a few people pleading ignorance to this, some genuine, some probably not). Lets think about it logically though. Some people are trying to sweep this under the wifom rug, and although there are options for scum to take, some are illogical and detrimental to scum's win condition.
Optimum scum strategy is to spread your numbers across 5 different X values, and try to pick up as many of the powerful roles as possible. This is probably the easiest way to cripple the town, by getting power on your side. However, scum may suspect town will figure out what their optimum strategy is, which lowers the effectiveness, and in turn scum may choose to throw the town off. However, there is only so far they can go, before giving too many roles to the town is a negative net result for them.
The good news for town is, we can already pick out unlikely combinations of scumpairs/teams based purely on numbers. At the very most scum would have doubled numbers once - any more than that leaves them too far down the draft. And frankly, if they have done that I'm thrilled because our roles will probably catch them before they can the reap the benefits of illogical number partners.
Right now, the best assumption is that scum have spread across at least four different X numbers. The beauty of this is, if we can keep groups of 3/4 players alive, we have a solid chunk ofprobablytown players. This forces scum to kill in these pools, the places where our good roles probably aren't.
Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.
This might read ambiguously. I meant, if we keep groups of 3/4 playersHoopla wrote: Right now, the best assumption is that scum have spread across at least four different X numbers.The beauty of this is, if we can keep groups of 3/4 players alive, we have a solid chunk ofThis forces scum to kill in these pools, the places where our good roles probably aren't.probablytown players.
Assumptions are bad. If someone flips scum in the (1, 1) group, should we lynch you based on your own policy? What about the other pairs?Hoopla wrote:People who are rejecting the concept of number analysis are idiots. It is as much wifom as vote/wagon analysis and other mainstream scumhunting techniques.
We know scum were able to coordinate before/during the draft (despite a few people pleading ignorance to this, some genuine, some probably not). Lets think about it logically though. Some people are trying to sweep this under the wifom rug, and although there are options for scum to take, some are illogical and detrimental to scum's win condition.
Optimum scum strategy is to spread your numbers across 5 different X values, and try to pick up as many of the powerful roles as possible. This is probably the easiest way to cripple the town, by getting power on your side. However, scum may suspect town will figure out what their optimum strategy is, which lowers the effectiveness, and in turn scum may choose to throw the town off. However, there is only so far they can go, before giving too many roles to the town is a negative net result for them.
The good news for town is, we can already pick out unlikely combinations of scumpairs/teams based purely on numbers. At the very most scum would have doubled numbers once - any more than that leaves them too far down the draft. And frankly, if they have done that I'm thrilled because our roles will probably catch them before they can the reap the benefits of illogical number partners.
Right now, the best assumption is that scum have spread across at least four different X numbers. The beauty of this is, if we can keep groups of 3/4 players alive, we have a solid chunk ofprobablytown players. This forces scum to kill in these pools, the places where our good roles probably aren't.
Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.
You're not a purist. You're a drone incapable of applying critical thinking to a game of mafia - using wiki tells isn't playing mafia.Fate wrote: So if two flip scum the third is automatically cleared? Call me a purist, but I rather rely on other, more traditional techniques. Instead of "follow the numbers." Also, if one of the "doubled up teams" (Pomegranate+Faraday, WRM+fifi, etc.) flips scum, we're supposed to grill the other one?
Again, I hate to break it to you, but your 'traditional scumhunting techniques' are based entirely on assumptions. Traditional concepts, such as bussing, stem entirely from guessing games back and forth between optimum scum strategy, and what townFate wrote: Assumptions are bad. If someone flips scum in the (1, 1) group, should we lynch you based on your own policy? What about the other pairs?
But scum have the advantage ofFate wrote: Another problem is that "optimum scum strategy" is thesameas optimum town strategy. I picked numbers I didn't think anyone else would pick, worked out pretty well for me.
1) No, the opposite. As it means it's highly like the players in the '1' group are town. This is based on scum not having 2+ of their members bid the same number. I maintain, that scum will have spread their numbers across 4 (probably 5) different X numbers.Fate wrote: 1) If someone flips scum in the (1, 1) group, should we lynch you based on your own policy? What about the other pairs?
2) You really think scum is going to shoot 'probable townies' (based only off number choices, I might add) in lieu of probable power roles?
It applies now because we don't have any other information to work with. We don't have wagons/votes to analyse yet or any confirmed alignments. Number analysis eclipses an unnecessary RVS.Ellibereth wrote:I don't get how the whole number thing appliesnow. Can someone explain it to me like I'm an idiot?
I also disagree that the numbers are of use in determining alignment in the long run.Jack wrote:StrangerCoug, you should know better...StrangerCoug wrote:
Unvote: Socratesfor dodging questions.
Vote: Jack
Yes, this is somewhat my position. It could possibly be useful at some point, but it's a terrible starting place.Devotress wrote:My opinion on the numbers debate: There is nothing to be gained in terms of scum hunting from the draft order, even if the scum had been able to talk before submiting numbers (which it doesn't sound like they were able to,to me) it's just a huge wifom trap.
Only about the Y number which doesn't count for very much of your chances of a high pick. My tactic was to come in and claim '1' early to scare everyone off it (an assumption based on nobody wanting to sacrifice their own draft position). However, most people didn't understand the system or probably submitted their numbers before reading my post.Ellibereth wrote:We have a wagon on Fate.
I get that it's most likely that scum are on the single numbers, but that doesn't reduce the list by that much anyway.
I'm curious why you lied about your picks in the signup thread.
We have Fate at L-3, which is a wagon you had a big part of. You thought he was suspicious for reasons not regarding number analysis.Hoopla wrote:It applies now because we don't have any other information to work with. We don't have wagons/votes to analyse yet. Number analysis eclipses an unnecessary RVS.
Saying we don't have any information to work on contradicts your accusation of him, so it sounds like your accusation wasn't genuine.In contrast to dramonic's (seemingly genuine) clueless response about the drafting system, this seems like Fate is piggybacking on this mindset to look town. The lame, forced question at the end quantifies this, and just looks like unnecessary words to fill a post that might otherwise had stood out.
I would definitely not pick the same number as my teammates. That is what I would do, but I don't know what scum inHoopla wrote:But I want to ask what you think. As scum, would you deliberately bid the same number as a teammate? How would you organise your team's number choices? Because you know if you picked the same numbers, it's automatically going to ruin your chances of good roles. Do you think it's likely scum doubled somewhere? Or they are spread across 5 different numbers?
2) If they were smart, yes. This would be a pretty bad situation to be stuck in for them (the result of going after the singular/doubles);
StrangerCoug (3,1)
The1fifi (3,7)
wolframnhart (3,7)
Devotress (8,3)
Porkens (8,9)
DocPotter (8,10)
Ellibereth (1,2)
Dramonic (1,1)
Hoopla (1,1)
TonyMontana (1,1)
Farside (6,3)
curiouskarmadog (6,12)
Pomegranate (6,4)
Town could easily eliminate A LOT of possible scumteams if there are fewer brackets of numbers. I repeat, the scum WON'T be in the same 2-3 numbers.
Simulpost. So you admit you really did vote me for being a singular number? I was hoping that was a last bit "RVS' joke...Hoopla wrote:Thank you for conveniently cutting out the bit about numbers from that quote you posted of mine, to make it look likethatwas my sole reasoning for my vote.
Faraday wrote:First 2 paragraphs are just there and to me look like an attempt to look town. I'm having a hard time explaining why but it just feels off. Stuff like 'Any scum want to claim and tell us' is something I think scum are more likely to say.
The thing with Socrates is just horrible. Trying to cast doubt on the higher draft picks for no reason is stupid this early. And it's funny considering he's next. So I guess if you don't die soon Fate we should lynch you too huh?
Wtf are you talking about. Either my memory is a fail or you're metaing is a fail.fate wrote:I also remember the game where you came out as a cop D2, saying "bah I hate being cop. Here's my investigation, see ya I'm dead tonight."
It was a combination of reasons. I will likely want to lynch you or Socrates or a double today, and will probably pick the scummiest one of that set of players (barring significant slips from low draft picks). You are currently the scummiest of that set, for reasons outside number analysis.Fate wrote:Simulpost. So you admit you really did vote me for being a singular number? I was hoping that was a last bit "RVS' joke...Hoopla wrote:Thank you for conveniently cutting out the bit about numbers from that quote you posted of mine, to make it look likethatwas my sole reasoning for my vote.
Hoopla wrote:It was a combination of reasons. I will likely want to lynch you or Socrates or a double today, and will probably pick the scummiest one of that set of players (barring significant slips from low draft picks).You are currently the scummiest of that set, for reasons outside number analysis.
Hoopla wrote:Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.