Mini 918 - A Hot, Steaming Bowl of Mafia - Game Over!

[charter]

vote Locke Lamora

Wagon.

[charter]

unvote vote Shotty

If he wants a counterwagon so bad, I say we give him one. I also don't like when people make posts to acknowledge they're being wagoned, but trying to joke it off, and not do anything else.

[charter]

I don't like when people joke about getting votes, but he didn't comment on LL wagon or MIC wagon, instead trying to start a third wagon which is slightly scummy.

I do think he's now proceeded in to the realm of active lurking as well, with most of his posts being useless.

RedCoyote, why no vote?

[charter]

I don't like when people joke about getting votes, but he didn't comment on LL wagon or MIC wagon, instead trying to start a third wagon which is slightly scummy.

I do think he's now proceeded in to the realm of active lurking as well, with most of his posts being useless.

RedCoyote, why no vote?

Active lurking on page 2! Shit, he got me.

Why is starting a third wagon scummy?

I didn't see the need to comment on an RVS pileup, nothing substantive there to work with.

You're trying to undermine the two wagons that are already going which normally prove informative later on. Basically impeding the process by which people get early reads on wagonees.

Eh, not a fan of Charter's reasoning. Random bandwagon is random, I don't see a reason for any actual serious reaction if the bandwagon is not serious as well.

I don't think his joking about getting votes is scummy, since I've never figured out when someone does it if they're scum or town, just useless. I just don't care for it.

[charter]

I'm saying that he's making quite an effort to post and making quite an effort to not say anything. I call that active lurking, you can call it what you want.

[charter]

Buried under snow, post later if we keep power and dig out.

[charter]

The third wagon or my attempt to 'impede' the other two gives just as much info if not more than if everyone had just blindly gone along and said 'Now what?' or waited for same random nothing to start another over.

I'm afraid I don't see how, please explain.

I believe charter's actual opinion has been summed up in this quote. (key parts in bold)

I don't think his joking about getting votes is scummy

, since I've never figured out when someone does it if they're scum or town, just useless.

I just don't care for it.

I can't decide if he's scum trying to take advantage or town that's trying too hard, have to sleep on it.

No, my actual opinion on you is that your trying to start up a third wagon without commenting on the two we had, was scummy.

I echo Dry-fit's question right there.

[charter]

Antiprod, post later.

[charter]

Am loving my shotty vote. I'd also vote MIC. Both are scum.

Just glanced at it so I don't get replaced for not posting content, need to reread and explain when I get more time.

[charter]

My take on the RC issue. I think he was saying we shouldn't suspect people based on Sotty's daykill, not that we shouldn't suspect people she mentioned. Was pretty confusing, I had to reread his post like three times to figure it out.

Shotty's vote in 88 is scummy as hell. He votes Cathart claiming Cathart's vote on RC was opportunistic when Cathart voted RC first, and Shotty himself later voted RC. Cathart already covered this. Shotty is 2/2 on terrible votes, which I find to be the threshhold for scum, so I'll be backing this lynch the rest of the day.

And now, let me ask you a question - do you still think, RC is 'either contradicting himself at worst or at the very best back-pedaling hard'?

I find it extremely interesting, you jumped that wagon at first, to now you hopped off it to accuse someone who threw a first vote on it (while accusing me of 'opportunistic jump' on that wagon, which is outright bullshit).

Bonus 'LOL' points for you actually being one of those three people mentioned by Sotty.

Town

charters picked me to tunnel on for this game, yay!

Ignoring Cathart's response to your vote on him is another scumfession from Shotty. Here's the active lurking I'm talking about.

Also his active lurking accusations from before are now tinted with irony.

There's a difference between posting about not having time and posting "lol charter tunnel".

Let's start the gears on a Shotty lynch, folks.

[charter]

Dry fit and d3x, what do you guys think of Shotty? Of a Shotty/MIC scumteam?

[charter]

Lol I didn't ignore it, except when I don't have time to make posts I don't 'check in' with a useless post, I'd rather post a quickie with the thought on top in my mind. I actually had a response worked out but my laptop died before I could finish so I had to start from scratch now that I got home from my friends house.

Your post was pretty useless.

Remember last time you tunneled on me?

Yeah, I was all over scum and then his buddy convinced me to vote you. I do find a defense of "remember last time" as extremely scummy, so you're just digging a deeper grave here. You're trying to say that suspecting you is never right, which for obvious reasons, is not true and scummy.

Why is my mistake so scummy? In mafia you hunt for the motivation behind the idea, what would I stand to gain by making up something so stupendously easy to check on that Col. would obviously protest if I were seriously trying to lead a mislynch as scum?

It's how your vote was just so terrible. You weren't trying to find scum at all with that vote, just putting it down wherever you thought you could, but you slipped up and put it in the wrong place. This is the 'terrible vote' tell I am talking about. It comes from scum.

Shotty's latest post makes me want Shotty dead as soon as possible. Shotty's MIC vote makes me pause on my MIC/Shotty scumteam.

[charter]

@d3x, charter: I realise that I'm questioning almost everyone who's expressed suspicion of me (not Cathart, because he's the only one that makes sense), but I've yet to see either of you explain your reasons for pointing fingers at me. Why do

you

two think I'm scum?

Calling the Shotty wagon bad, when it was very good. You also called the RC wagon weak. It looks like you're just trying to impede town progress.

And now, you're still voting Locke, haven't given any reason for that, so that's pretty suspicious too.

[charter]

unvote, vote MIC

Sad that Shotty isn't getting lynched, but whatever.

[charter]

He's still at L-1 with Hoopla's unvote. Someone should hammer in the next 24 hours. Can claim if he wants, don't really care.

[charter]

vote Shotty

[charter]

Charter: you think Shotty was bussing with his vote? MIC wasn't the obvious lynch at that point.

Actually, upon relfection, I'm not as sure. After thinking about it some more, I am agreeing with d3x in 158 and since I'm not very in to this game, my conviction in Shottyscum is waivering.

Another thing is, Hoopla hammering MIC before he claimed, and while I have no problems with this, I don't think many people usually advocate or follow through with it, it normally comes from scumbuddies who know they won't catch flak for doing it.

I agree with d3x's

You tried to derail the MIC wagon and C.C called you on it twice. The reactions were very different and, imo, telling. The first time, you said that the suspicion was "valid". The second, you become defensive, lashing out about how it'd be a stupid Scum play.

most.

It seems like she thought that the bad scum play defense would be better than standing by her Cathart suspicion.

[charter]

since I'm not very in to this game, my conviction in Shottyscum is waivering.

Were you more 'into this game', would you not be questioning your earlier read on Shotty? I'm not really getting what you mean here.

Yeah, I'd be pushing harder for Shotty since I'd be more sure he was scum. It's kind of weird, I know, but it's how I generally operate.

Well, I think it's safe to say that either Hoopla or Locke is scum. I think it's Hoopla.

[charter]

Ok, well, that makes things easy then.

unvote, vote Hoopla

Really can't imagine Cathart and Locke as scum and Cathart just pulled this out of his ass to save his buddy when they've already lost a roleblocker. Whereas Hoopla trying to shift attention off her makes a ton of sense.

[charter]

I'm not unvoting, not sure I even buy the claim either. I don't get why you would do this if you could just kill Locke and bypass trying to convince anyone else to vote him. Although I guess if you are lying about being able to daykill, you don't have long to live.

I think Hoopla should just vig herself and then we proceed with lynching Shotty. Hoopla definitely needs to die, and it's better to do these things sooner rather than later, because her initial claim seems like a ploy to save herself, but then the counterclaim ruined her plan.

[charter]

Or we could shoot charter tunneling such and such *grumble grumble*

Ok, just thought I'd point it out so your scumbuddy Hoopla can see it, in case she missed it

[charter]

I am a bit torn over having her self-Vig. What would the SK motivation be for her recent play? If we're not thinking she's an SK, then if she can't kill anyone, we have a DayVig. It'll also be in the Scum's best interest to NK her if she is an SK. Let's talk this fully out before we decide on anything. If we have Hoopla self-Vig, C.C's hung out to dry tonight and that's 2 Town PR's down. If we can preserve one of them, why wouldn't we?

Well, it seemed like Hoopla was steadily gaining suspicion, so it looks like she was trying to get that suspicion off her, which if you're a SK, you've got to try something kind of creative. Although, the way I'm looking at it is I see very little town motivation for her recent play but there's certainly a lot of scum motivation.

Although, now that I think about it more, I don't think we should try and get Hoopla to self vig. We should use it as a second lynch. I am all for that second lynch being Shotty, and I've seen a few others who agree.

[charter]

Although, now that I think about it more, I don't think we should try and get Hoopla to self vig. We should use it as a second lynch. I am all for that second lynch being Shotty, and I've seen a few others who agree.

Though I still think Hoopla needs to die, preferably soon. Also I wouldn't mind a vig of Konowa or Zach. Impossible to tell either of their alignments.

[charter]

I'm a jack of all trades. I protected Cathart night one. I blocked Shotty last night. I assume you tracked me, which is why you're asking. I guess there's really not much I can do, you either believe me or you don't. I can vig or cop tonight, if you guys will let me live until then.

[charter]

There's also things in game that reflect my thinking about my role. The biggest is my flip flop on Hoopla, from thinking she should vig herself, to not caring, since I could just do it myself. I always thought she was anti town, but didn't want to keep pushing it since no one else seemed to think it, and then get myself vigged.

I said I thought Cathart was town, day one, so that's why I protected him.

[charter]

So you say, you're the JOAT? After chewing this thought a bit, I don't think it's true. I know I'm dangerously close now to attempts on outguessing the mod and setup but it's just how I see things:

It's a 12 players game. So most possible scum number is 3 mafia members. 2 would be harmful for mafia, 4 would be pretty harmful for town. 3 is also pretty standard for Mini games, so I'll assume we have 3 scum in this game for my theory.

You're already at 0 for 1. Mini's can have 2 or 4 scum. In fact, I was in a mini with 4 scum, a dayvig, and some other powerroles I don't quite remember. Here is the game.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11589

3 scum means 9 townies. among them we have Day Vig and JOAT. Now let's assume worst case scenario - they will all miss horribly with their vigs, and town will only mislynch.

After D1:

3 scum - 7 townies (misvig and mislynch)

After N1:

3 scum - 5 townies (another misvig and night kill)

That's a D2 MyLo. LyLo if Day Vig will still be alive at this point and miss again.

0 for 2. This doesn't seem that unusual to me. I've modded a game with a vig, a JOAT, tracker, and other power roles.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12168
Town got burned really bad because they tried to play outguess the mod and lost.

What is your "gut read" on me based on? Maybe I can explain. Those examples are just ones I came up with off the top of my head, I can probably find more. You're trying to outguess the mod now, and you're going to lose.

My motivation for blocking Shotty is because I thought he was scum. I didn't vig him because I'm saving that until endgame where it's more powerful. Didn't cop him because I thought I could stop a kill and catch him in one fell swoop, then claim one shot roleblocker so I wouldn't get NKed, but claiming one shot cop would have been my death sentence.

I didn't try and catch Shotty night one because I assumed we would just be lynching him and I wasn't going to waste my role if we were going to lynch him anyway. That's what I do when I think someone is obvscum, I'm not going to waste my role or out myself to get them lynched.

[charter]

I don't really have any flavor, just an explanation of my role and win condition.

[charter]

I'm not using other games to try and prove I can't be scum, since I know it looks bad for me here, and I'll agree, I doubt we have four scum. I'm just trying to show you all that lynching me because I'm a JOAT in a game with a vig and tracker is a really poor idea. Lynching me because I'm scummy (though I don't think I am) is fine. Lynching me because I was tracked going to the dead guy I can tolerate, but I still don't think it's a good idea, obviously. I was just using other games to show that these hard and fast assumptions he has about setups aren't necessarily true, and so if you just blindly assume every game is mostly similar in terms of setup and balance, the games that are different will wreck you.

I was pointing out to Cathart that he wants to lynch me because my role of JOAT "doesn't fit" with how he thinks the game is set up or how he thinks the game should be balanced, which is a dangerous pitfall. I'm just saying that what Cathart thinks is balanced doesn't really matter since he didn't make the setup, and therefore shouldn't base decisions (like lynching me) mostly off setup speculation. Same holds true for everyone else, but I don't think anyone else is really doing it right now.

[charter]

Main reason is the track result. Point not really debatable.

I agree, but I'm trying to say that it doesn't make me scum, just really unlucky.

Also, about my gut feelings: I said in my PM to sigma with my N2 track target message, that something bugs me about your play, because you're not 'charterish' enough in comparison to your play in other games I've seen you. From Commie Mafia or Mayor Mafia, I remember you were really aggressive and relentless all the time. Even when you changed your mind about suspect halfway through, you was already on someone else's back. Correct or not, full throttle all the time. And that was also the case during D1 with Shotty. You were one of my stronger D1 reads, but it all crumbled during D2, when suddenly you went with 'maybe my case is not that strong as I thought', all steam disappeared somewhere, and you couldn't come up with anything more than 'Either Hoopla or Locke is scum' after Hoopla's falseclaim, and simple jump on the wagon after my claim.

Ok, I see where you're getting this gut read on me from now, but what you're picking up are my caring tells, not alignment tells. I haven't been very interested in this game, since it's really lurkerish and whatnot, so that's why I haven't been "charterish". All the other games you've seen me in have been high activity and more interesting. I just finished another game where I was scum and I was very "charterish", mini 915. It's just that I was in the zone for that game and this one I'm spaced out. There's others as well.

And now, it's probably the first time I see you in full defense mode, and no counters in anyone else's direction. The closest thing to this is your behavior during the endgame of Mafia Invasion when you were a Godfather.

Of course I'm in defense mode, I check the thread at the start of the day and I see that I got tracked and I know what that means, so I'm trying to diffuse it.

BTW, while we're at it - if not you, then who? You lost all your suspects now with Shotty's death. Who's scum in your opinion right now?

Locke, Zach, RC, or Bio. My top suspect now is Locke. He votes just about everyone but MIC, and he normally tries a new target right after another surge in MIC votes. I also don't like how he just asks Cathart if he got a result first thing today, it seems like he's trying to see if him or his buddy were tracked before he actually does something.

[charter]

Oh, I forgot about Bio, he's my top suspect, Locke at number two.

[charter]

Yeah, I went back and reread and looked mostly through day one, and those are the people who weren't voting MIC. I was mostly looking to see if I could draw any connections to people from MIC's posts, but there's really little there to work with. Then I read like half of day two and just stopped because I wasn't seeing these people posting anything at all. I didn't reread all the way up to Bio's hammer, I had stopped before I got that far. Kind of a brain fart I guess.

[charter]

That was in response to d3x's 298.

[charter]

Hmm... Actually after I gave it some more thought, if charter speaks truth, he still has a vig up his sleeve. That means his claim is more or less provable. potential mislynch + NK + potential misvig may cost us the game, but if we'll decide to no-lynch there should still be at least 5 people tomorrow if charter speaks the truth or 6 if charter is a dirty liar (or has a really poor luck with choosing the same victim as scum again, though that would make the number of unlucky coincidences a bit too high in my books especially considering [if charter speaks truth] two juicy town power-roles to kill). I didn't really scan the idea for all it's pros and cons, but I think it's worth discussing.

I have no delusions that if I don't kill scum, I'm going to get lynched if the game doesn't end.

I'm not saying he's the 100% Lynch today {I'm looking at you Bio}, but I think this line of thought this early in the Day is very dangerous. If charter's not the Lynch for today, then I suggest we look at his other abilities for tonight.

This is actually a really good idea, and the worst case scenario is I soak up the NK.

Yeah, I'm finding Charter's claim hard to believe.

You'd have to buy 2 vigilantes AND 2 investigative roles.

It looks pretty convenient too.

Did you miss my whole don't outguess the mod post?

[charter]

Charter: you think it's scummy to ask the claimed tracker if he has any results? I'm not really buying that you forgot a suspect either. You seem like the kind of player who might forget about those who you don't find all that scummy, but someone who drops the hammer way too early without waiting for a claim to be verified? Not quite sure how you forgot that.

It's how you asked and said nothing else, like you were anxious.

I already explained how I had stopped reading before Bio's shenanigans, and then I corrected myself.

[charter]

Ugh, this is so frustrating. I don't know how I can prove I'm a JOAT other than vig tonight. I can vig whoever, it'll be like a second lynch. This has the added benefit of everyone's input instead of my own.

Plus, how would I know there's no flavor in my role if I was lying? If I was scum bs'ing, I'd have made up some elaborate "Well, it talks about four flavors of oatmeal, all with special powers" or something like that, but I answered d3x's question like two minutes after he asked it! I know it's WIFOM, but frankly I've got nothing left, since I got tracked going to the dead guy.

[charter]

I don't think that's a good idea. If we no lynch, I get killed, then there's six left, and it's MYLO and there's no room for error anymore.

[charter]

Just one scenario, but it's a pretty bad one. I dunno.

[charter]

That's all you have to say?

Move Zach up to number two suspect after Bio.

[charter]

An idea popped into my head when I was in the shower earlier.

We lynch either BH or Zach, and charter shoots the other one.

Most of us agreed that there is going to be a scumflip between the two of them, right? This way we will be two scum down come tomorrow. Thoughts?

I'm not sure about this if we lynch one and they flip town. If they flip scum, then I think it will work.

The more I think about it, the more I don't buy that town-charter is going to use his protect N1 instead of investigating, blocking or killing Shotty. It just doesn't seem like the kind of thing he'd do after tunnelling on Shotty all day. It's too conservative a move and I'm finding it hard to picture it.

Vote: charter

I already explained, I assumed we would just be lynching Shotty so I wasn't going to be wasting my cop on him. I already also said I was saving the vig for endgame when it becomes much better or can buy us another day. I don't investigate people I think are obvscum and are going to get themselves lynched anyway. Have you ever been a cop? How do you do it?

[charter]

I already said I thought Cathart was town. Go back and check. It looks like I picked a good doc target too.

I don't investigate people I think are obvscum and will get lynched. It's pointless. If they're innocent, then you either let them swing anyway and waste the investigation or you have to claim to save them and out yourself, which is terrible. It's no win.

You're saying I'm dumb to protect night one. What if I had investigated shotty? A lot of good that would do right now, would have been wasted all the same. Your logic of waiting to doc because it will be more effective applies to my thinking of waiting to cop and vig.

[charter]

Are you even reading my posts Locke? This is like the third time you're questioning me about something I've already gone over.

[charter]

Well, I don't really see any point in continuing this debate, what's done is done. I was trying a new strategy for JOAT this time in saving the cop/vig, clearly it was bad idea.

[charter]

Well, what I am worried about is if I get lynched, then there's probably two scum left and I don't see any way to find them other than both of them being tracked. Unless both Zach and Bio are scum, it's going to be an easy scum win if I'm lynched today.

[charter]

Well yeah, either Bio or you. Bio's hammer was so grossly anti town, and his reasons for doing it were so scummy, he's pretty clearly scum.

The other person I'd lynch is you. The more I think about it, the more you look like scum to me.

You're all over RC day one instead of MIC, and RC probably isn't scum, but you give this shady reasons for not voting MIC, but still being suspicious of him, something like "MIC already has attention on him". Then, right before deadline, you pile on to Hoopla over MIC. Then you really don't say anything day two. Then your first post today was scummy as hell, now that I think about it. Besides the waiting with bated breath, you also come straight out the gate accusing those that were suspicious of Shotty as being scum, which you've made sure you're not a part of. That night kill was a really obvious frame, I missed it since I've been trying to explain my thinking behind my role.

You're just pouncing on me now because you see this really great opportunity and you know the town won't fault you for voting me. I'm just an easy mislynch.

[charter]

Not at all, but if it's a pick between Bio or Zach, Bio is scummier. If it's between Zach or Locke, I dunno. It'd probably boil down to how paranoid I am at the time or what theory is currently running through my head. Like before I made that last post, it would have been Zach, but then I got to thinking if the whole scum team tried chronic lurking, and it just seems too coincidental, and I found legitimate concerns about Locke.

Right now I am trying to figure it out for sure because I'm sure I'm going to be lynched, and then we can't just lynch those three to get the last two scum. We have to do it the hard way and figure out which are scum and only lynch them rather than the easy way of just lynch Bio, Zach, and Locke and bask in the glory.

[charter]

Charter: you're paranoid about the lurkers, so maybe you'll understand this. I'm paranoid that someone who has been tracked to a kill, claimed a currently unverifiable PR, and whose choice of actions don't really make sense to me, is going to get to live.

It is verifiable.

Perhaps my assumptions are wrong, though. Would you vig me (or anyone) if our lynch flipped town?

I thought we agreed not to, so no, I wouldn't.

Ugh, Cathart, what have I done that is

scummy

? I don't get why you're so gung ho to lynch me.

[charter]

Alright, good luck then. I hope for you all's sake Bio and Zach are scum.

[charter]

No lynching is a bad idea. Lynching someone other than me is a good idea.

Really nothing else to say.

[charter]

What a monumental disaster from night 2 as well...

Wow, yeah. We bungled that good.

Good work town, had us beat every step of the game.

[charter]

I've honestly never seen scum hammer in the situation Bio did -- it always seems to be townies that do the really reckless hammers. Maybe that WIFOM will change over time. I thought charter and Zach did a nice job there setting up Hoopla for the lynch.

Ooohhh no. Scum do it all the time. Great scum play.

Good job modding too.