Open 199 - Friends, Enemies, and Enemies - OVER

[yawetag]

/confirm as well. Just for your knowledge, I live in the US, but will probably post more at night, as that is when I'm active.

I have read over the thread already. I can understand the attack on DKU, but remember that there

are

three groups in this setup; it's possible she's a Mason who knows the identity of two other townies.

[yawetag]

Vote : Cdubs?

And as for pokemon, why a fire one anyways. Psychic is totally the way to go.

Is there a reason you're self-voting?

[yawetag]

Vote: yawetag

Is there any basis to this, other than a direct quote of my first post?

[yawetag]

Vote: yawetag

Is there any basis to this, other than a direct quote of my first post?

I'll let you figure that one out.

What is this, Calvinball? I'm expected to figure out why you're voting me, using only my initial post as evidence? If you have no reason to vote for me, other than the fact that I have to figure it out, your vote is on sinking sand... at best. Why don't you do some real scumhunting, instead of seemingly-random votes when RVS is, the best I can tell, over?

[yawetag]

@yawetag, it's not random, brutha.

vote: xRECKONERx

Good god. Can you elaborate at all?

[yawetag]

Being annoying =/ being scummy.

You're right. However, when you fail to give any reason at all for your motivations, that is.

[yawetag]

PS, the fact that yawetag claims he knew why I was voting him, but refused to admit it out loud, and attempted to get a counterwagon going on me in the process, is PRETTEH SCUMMEH!

I'd love for you to show me where I claimed I knew why you were voting for me.

[yawetag]

Being annoying =/ being scummy.

You're right.

However, when you fail to give any reason at all for your motivations, that is.

I read this as "You're right, that's why he's voting for me". Though, now I could see it as "You're right, being annoying =/ being scummy". Still though, you had to have had some idea of why I just quoted that post and laid down a vote.

Your second understanding is correct. I was agreeing with evils' statement. I had no idea why you voted for me; you simply quoted my only post at the time, then dodged the questions when I asked.

You also seemed unphased by why I was voting for you and have yet to deny you were fishing for masons.

Unphased? I kept asking you why, and you never answered. I think I showed some care in why you had placed the vote.

I wasn't fishing for masons -- I was simply stating the obvious. There are three factions of teams in this setup, and to immediately jump on the fact he was scum is a stretch, especially on page 1.

[yawetag]

Nah, dude. It was totally reactionary.

Reactionary to what action? You're going to have to be a lot more specific.

[yawetag]

As you can see, I never pushed for a full yawetag wagon

And WE HAVE A WINNER! Your prize: a yawetag lynch. Do you accept y/n

[yawetag]

I think we can agree that, barring 3 counter claims, we're not going to lynch a mason.

I'm not following your thought process here. Are you suggesting that a Mason claim when they're on the chopping block?

This means, unlike other games, we have almost a 50% shot of hitting scum D1!

We have a 44% chance, and that's if you know who the Masons are. Don't forget, however, that there's the chance of TWO deaths at night. So, while our odds might be better during the day, we're losing more at night.

[yawetag]

Also, I just replaced flareonage in another game... We don't need this inactive/nub town/scum in our experiment.

In most cases, I would argue that we should wait for a replacement before basing a true decision. However, with the mod's rules, no replacements are allowed - he would simply be modkilled if he doesn't post at all during Day 2. If he's really gone and not returning, there's no use losing two people tomorrow.

Unvote; vote: flareonage

[yawetag]

Mod:

Are you using the "no posts during a game day = modkilled" rule?

Yes indeedy.

If so, I think we need to be VERY careful about lynching someone today unless we have a really strong case against the person. I say this because there is a player that hasn't posted anything other than a /confirm. If we lose him, as well as a mis-lynch, we're sitting with two dead bodies tonight, both possibly town.

With that said,

FoS: CryMeARiver

. Your argument against DKU is shaky, and SK's defense of flare on Day 1 is hard to ignore. I know it's hard, but can you defend SK's actions?

[yawetag]

In any case, I'd like to see more than a general "SK's defense was scummy"... can someone put together an actual case?

I'll work on one later tonight, but would love to see other's opinions as well. The problem is that it CMaR has been placed in a situation of trying to read SK's mind when defending the points -- it's not easy (I've been there).

[yawetag]

ummm...
@RayFrost
If Flare is scummy and needs to die, why is your vote on me???

I don't keep track of my vote.

In taking another read through the thread, this jumped out at me.

Why don't you keep track of your vote? Not only does the mod post it in intervals, it's on the first post of the thread. Barring that, there should be no reason for you NOT to know where your vote is cast.

[yawetag]

This would be my case on SK being scummy.

For that matter, why is Flareonage at L-1? (The latter question is directed at the people who are currently voting Flareonage.)

I know you think he's scum. My question is meant to make you think why he is scum. Tracker's answer is the correct kind of answer I'm looking for. I want to know why it is you're voting Flareonage. By the way, Dana, what is

your

case against Flareonage?

I'm not yet sold on the idea that Flareonage is scum.

Flareonage is scum because he fail-flailed, pretended he was confused, and is now lurking. What more do you need?

How is he pretending he was confused?

I am suspicious of the flailing and the lurking, though.

In each quote above, SK is questioning cases against flare, even when his questions were easily answered in previous posts. Instead of trying to seem like he's getting information, he should have been reading previous posts. His constant line of questions tells me he's trying to defend the person, but it's hard to do that when you're simply asking everyone to re-hash previous information.

[yawetag]

You realise RayFrost was NKed, right?

I do now. I also realize the irony of the situation.

[yawetag]

Read the ruleset, guys. No one will be replaced because they're inactive, and if the Day ends before mavsfan gets a post in [and I don't think he has yet; correct me if I'm wrong], then he's modkilled and out of our hair anyway. We don't have to worry about him unless he

does

post, in which case I'm all for a lurker-lynch wagon.

And this is the reason we only have two choices today:
1. Lynch mavsfan
2. No lynch

If we don't lynch mavs and we mislynch, that puts us at four. If maf and werewolves hit townies, we lose.

Err. Wait, who is Cry Me A River? And whom is s/he replacing?

Posts like this crawl at me. First off, it's in the first post and it's in each votecount the mod is posting. Secondly, there has been enough discussion about CMaR having to defend SK's actions that it should have been obvious.

On a sidenote: I've found it VERY helpful to turn on "Always show First Post on every Topic Page:" in my Profile. When it's on, the first post is at the top of every page, no matter how many pages deep you've gone. In Mafia, it allows you to see the votecount and status of the game without having to go back to the first page.

[yawetag]

Lynch mavsfan please.

You can only bus one person in this setup.

[yawetag]

Don't act so fast on this trust issue. As I think about it, it's not a good idea. Nothing good can come out of it. As I see it, listing two people removes the chance of the town knowing the third Mason if the second is killed.

It's really easy to explain. Simply put:

Masons will list their partner, as well as a random third person. A Mason kill at night, or even a Mason lynch, will cause a counter-claim between the two "trusted" players -- especially if one of them is non-town. So, this puts us in the same situation we're already in. Our position would be no better than it is now. Neither of the "trusted" players can be fully trusted, and the town will be forced to lynch one of them.

Who wants to be in that type of situation? I think it's better for the Masons to leave breadcrumbs and keep from fighting with their partner so it's easier for the town to clear the third. This way, the scum can't use any information that's given so blatantly, such as a list. Hopefully, the town can find the clues without tipping the scum.

My list will be kept personal unless the group thinks it's a better idea. Everyone should then participate, though, and ones that don't give a list should be looked at very closely.

[yawetag]

We should not NL today because of mavsfan. If we can get him modkilled, that's awesome, because it's like having an extra lynch. In no way does that motivate no lynching. Getting mavsfan modkilled means we can get two lynches with one night phase instead of two lynches with two night phases.

What's your thoughts behind the chance of losing two townies: our lynch target and mavs?

[yawetag]

You can do the math yourself.

I did.

Same outcome, but on the first scenario we have one extra shot at avoiding this result, because we get to lynch player Y.

Try again.

Here are the numbers assuming only townies are killed and lynched (in town/maf/wolves order) if we lynch someone other than mavs:
After D2 - 4/1/2
After N2 - 2/1/2
After D3 - 1/1/2

The same with a no lynch today:
After D2 - 5/1/2
After N2 - 3/1/2
After D3 - 2/1/2

In the first scenario, we lose N3. There's no way to win:
1. Maf kills wolf - wolf kills town: 0/1/1. Town loses.
2. Maf kills wolf - wolf kills maf: 1/0/1. Town loses.
3. Maf kills town - wolf kills town (same target): 0/1/2. Town loses.
4. Maf kills town - wolf kills maf: 0/0/2. Town loses.

In the second, we have a chance:
1. Maf kills wolf - wolf kills town: 1/1/1. Town loses.
2. Maf kills wolf - wolf kills maf: 2/0/1. Town can win.
3. Maf kills town - wolf kills town (same target): 1/1/2. Town loses.
4. Maf kills town - wolf kills town (different target): 0/1/2. Town loses.
4. Maf kills town - wolf kills maf: 1/0/2. Town loses.

Obviously, this hinges on town never lynching scum, but it's worse-case scenario.

Barring finding a true scum, we have two options today:
1. No lynch and get mavs modkilled.
2. Lynch mavs.

Either way, it would be A LOT better if mavs turned scum.

[yawetag]

Besides, just randomly, there's a 77% chance scum is either our lynch target, mavs or hit on a cross-kill after.

I'd love to see your math here. Make sure you include whether or not mavs is scum, as that has A LOT to do with the calculation.

Without counting the cavs modkill, we have a 33% chance of lynching scum (6 townies, 3 scum). The other 66% of the time, mafia has a 28% chance (2 of 7) of finding a wolf, and wolves have a 17% chance (1 of 6) of finding mafia.

Using a simple graph, I got the following possibilities, assuming a townie lynch today, no mavs modkill:
Maf kills wolf - Wolf kills maf: 2
Maf kills wolf - Wolf kills town: 10
Maf kills town - Wolf kills maf: 5
Maf kills town - Wolf kills town (same target): 5
Maf kills town - Wolf kills town (different target): 20

Of 42 possibilities, there's only 2 where a cross-kill will occur. That means, of the 66% of the time we miss scum today, only 5% (2/42) of the time will we get a cross-kill.

My calculations show that a scum will die only about 40% of time. Again, this doesn't count whether mavs is scum or not.

I hate to throw out numbers -- it confuses people. However, I have to point out faulty math when it's used.

[yawetag]

BWOP: I've said it from the beginning of the day, and I'll keep repeating it. Either no lynch or lynching mavs is the smart move for the day.

Vote: mavsfan41

[yawetag]

2/3*5/8*2/3*4/5 = roughly 22%. Ergo, there's a 77% chance of a scenario in which a scum dies.

Please point out the problem in this calculation. I'm not a math genius, so maybe I'm overlooking something here, but I think this holds up.

You're taking several scenarios and multiplying them together. That's not correct math.

Right now, we have a 33% chance of finding scum; ergo, 66% of the time, my math goes into effect. Everything that happens in that 66% of the time is ADDED to the 33% from D2, but you also have to make sure you multiply any of the N2 actions by 66%. I can give you examples, but it will only fill the thread with useless math. Remind me at the end and I'll show you how it works.

I've said it several times before, but I feel it needs to be repeated: Lynching anyone other than mavs is a bad idea. We risk losing two townies, and that cannot ever be a good idea.

[yawetag]

I meant for both of these to be in the same post. I apologize for the frequent EBWOPs.

Your comparisons are off.

You shouldn't compare both scenarios at the same point (D3 in your scenario), because at this point we have had an extra lynch on the modkill+lynch scenario.

No, it's a very fair place to compare both scenarios. It's the point of losing or being in LYLO. Yes, it's worst-case, but you have to account for worst-case or you lose. That's what MYLO and LYLO hinge on.

[yawetag]

You're assuming a mislynch on your modkill+lynch mavs scenario that's not in your other scenario. Therefore, the scenarios are imbalanced. If you assume the same mislynch in the other scenario, on D4 with 2/0/1, we also autolose.

The first scenario is a town lynch AND mavs modkill showing town. The second scenario I gave is a no-lynch or lynching mavs ONLY and mavs showing town -- no other lynch given.

That's the reason for the difference in numbers. As you'll see, taking the worst-case scenario, lynching mavs today is the only option UNLESS we can find scum. Any other lynch puts us in a very bad situation.

I know the math is confusing people, and I wouldn't normally post it. However, I had to point out evil's mistakes.

I checked my math and it's fine. Yawetag, could you calculate for me the odds of not hitting scum at all on the modkill+lynch scenario? I think you'll find you get the same answer.

Just for today? Sure, and I'll try to make it (somewhat) easy. If we lynch someone other than mavs and mavs gets modkilled, we have the following situations (a total of 72 different ways to happen [1 mafia, 2 wolves, 6 townies]):
1. two scums die - 6 times (8.3%)
2. one scum dies - 36 times (50%)
3. no scum dies - 30 times (41.7%)

Taking those numbers, we will hit at least one scum 58.3% of the time. Not shabby, but significantly less than the 77% you gave.

[yawetag]

Before someone lynches, PLEASE think about the dire situation we could be in tomorrow if CMaR and mavs are both townies.

[yawetag]

In the first scenario, we last longer and get an extra lynch. I don't see why this is hard to comprehend for you.

I'm done arguing about the scenarios. My situations had townies killed at all times; situation one had two lynches today (a target and a modkill), and situation two had one lynch today (a modkill). There's no other tricks about it. Let's agree to disagree and go back to what we're supposed to be doing... finding scum. Right now, my biggest FoS is on CMaR. I didn't like SK's actions during D1, and CMaR hasn't done much to defend the spot today.

You do see that having multiple lynches is good for town, right? This is why there are 4 scum in a Nightless setup, for instance.

It's obvious that I disagree with you, and I always will. Lynching today is not a good idea at all. If we lose two townies (which will happen 40% of the time), the town loses. If we no lynch (or even lynch mavs), we have a chance to win if he turns up townie.

Obviously, NONE of this matters if mavs is scum.

Your math does not add up, btw. You don't even have a situation listed in which all three scum die (which can happen if one of CMAR/mavs is a werewolf and scum cross-kill each other). Clearly, you're doing something wrong.

No, you're looking at it wrong. You wanted to know the odds of hitting scum with a lynch and a modkill. This has NOTHING to do with night actions, only the actions of the town during the day and the modkill that will presumably happen before night begins. In that case, there are only three possibilities: scum/scum, scum/town, town/town. Nothing else.

[yawetag]

In the first scenario, we last longer and get an extra lynch. I don't see why this is hard to comprehend for you.

I can't ignore this. You are wrong, plain and simple.

Situation #1.
On Day 2, we are at 6/1/2. We lynch someone and mavs is modkilled. Both turn up as town. We lose two townies.
On Night 2, we are now 4/1/2. Both mafia and werewolves kill a townie. We lose two townies.
On Day 3, we are now 2/1/2. We lynch a townie.
On Night 3, we are now 1/1/2. There is no way for the town to win.

Situation #2:
On Day 2, we are at 6/1/2. We no lynch and mavs is modkilled (or we lynch mavs -- it makes no difference). mavs turns up town. We lose one townie.
On Night 2, we are now 5/1/2. Both mafia and werewolves kill a townie. We lose two townies.
On Day 3, we are now 3/1/2. We lynch a townie.
On Night 3, we are now 2/1/2. Town has a chance to win if mafia and werewolves attack each other.

Where did I mess up? Yes, every step assumes a townie is killed, but you HAVE to look at worst-case scenario when determining an action. If you didn't, you shoot yourself in the foot.

[yawetag]

You are wrong because the Day 3 townie in situation #2 is lynched on Day 2 in situation #1.

This makes absolutely no sense. Your argument is that I'm counting a day 3 lynch in situation #2. Of course I am... we will have to lynch someone on day 3 in BOTH scenarios. There's also a lynch on day 3 in situation #1. Adding an extra kill on day 2 doesn't eliminate a day 3 lynch.

Step back for a second and think about the whole situation. Your contention is that by eliminating an extra player from the field (who we both are making a townie for worst-case scenario), we gain extra time. This makes no sense, no matter how you dice it. Each day, we're lynching one person, except for today, when you're arguing that we should lynch TWO. There is no situation where lynching two townies is better than lynching one.

And it is important to have this argument, because there's a chance someone might believe you and it would be bad for town not to take advantage of this opportunity.

So you think you're right, but your hope is that someone believes me and takes advantage of it? Do you normally double-talk? I agree that the argument is nice, but it's getting to the point of hurting town more than helping. You've given your opinion based on your math, and I've given mine. Unfortunately, we've had very little discussion from other members and we've got a target on L-1. The fact that the hammer hasn't dropped yet tells me we're sniffing up a good tree, but I don't think it's in the best interest for the town.

I wanted to know the odds of hitting scum with a lynch, modkill and cross-kills. This is then where our calculations differ. I think you'll see that if you include cross-kills, you get that 22% I got. At which point you'll also (hopefully) finally realise that my math was not faulty, as you claimed.

Wow. This calculation is a lot more complex than what you posted earlier. You have to go into the percentages of how many scum could be killed by lynching, which effects the percentages of how many scum targets there are for scum to hit. With that said, and without actually calculating it, I can agree that the chance of at least one scum dying between now and the start of tomorrow would be close to that. Basically, you have a (6/9)*(5/8)*(4/7)*(3/6) chance of only townie kills with the lynch, modkill, and two night kills, which comes out to approx 12%; that makes 88% chance of hitting at least one scum in those four kills. However, you're taking the chance of up to 3 townies dying in the process -- that's a horrible situation for the town.

[yawetag]

Your calculation is wrong, though it is on the right track now at least.

You're right. After I posted it, I realized the werewolves have one less target to choose from. With that, I get either 79.2% or 80%, depending on whether you take mafia's choice or werewolves' shot first. So, your 77% from before is really close.

And taking this into account makes sense, btw, because the nightkills do affect our situation.

It doesn't affect the odds of a townie being lynched during the day phase, which is what my first calculation was.

Now, there are two possibilities. Night 3 can go bad for town, costing it the game. In this case, just hitting

two

townies in a row with lynches has cost the town the game.

This possibility never arises in scenario #1 and is why scenario #1 is superior for town

.

Let's forget the math for a second. Let's even forget the situations. Let's look at your idea in the most basic way we can.

We both agree that looking at worst-case scenario is what we're doing. By agreeing with that, we've both used the scenario where only townies are lynched and killed.

Using that agreement, you are arguing that killing two townies in one day is better for the town. There is NO situation in ANY normal setup where an extra death of a townie is better for the town. Any time a townie dies, that's one less townie -- there's no other way to look at it. When we lose an extra townie, the town is one death closer to losing.

Does this mean I think we should NL until LYLO? No. We do have to lynch, especially when someone is showing scummy behavior. We're wrong sometimes, but it still puts town at a disadvantage -- we just lost one of our number.

Your constant arguing against this basic principle of the game of Mafia started off as a simple mistake on your part. However, your unwilling to see the truth is now toeing a line of FoS. It now appears that you're trying to manipulate the town into agreeing with you, hoping you can set the trap of no chance for town to win.

Do I think the town would have no chance of winning if we lynch CMaR? No. The odds show that about 80% of the time, a scum will be found today or tonight. However, in the other 20% (which is only 1 out 5 times), we HAVE to lynch correctly tomorrow or the town loses. Because of that, I still think NL is the right decision for today.

To be honest, I think CMaR is our best target for today, and I've said it myself:

With that said,

FoS: CryMeARiver

. Your argument against DKU is shaky, and SK's defense of flare on Day 1 is hard to ignore. I know it's hard, but can you defend SK's actions?

If we weren't in the situation with mavs, I would have already put my vote on him. Even his defense since taking over hasn't changed my opinion.

[yawetag]

Yes, that is exactly it. Killing two townies in one day is better for the town. Why? Because otherwise we kill the same two townies in two days. If we don't lynch CMAR today, but tomorrow, that only means we have an extra night phase with more dead townies. A modkill is effectively an extra nightless day.

And what do we do tomorrow if CMaR is killed today? We lynch someone else. Lynching CMaR today doesn't nullify the fact that we still have to lynch tomorrow.

I see where you're going with this, but it still puts us one townie short a day earlier. What you aren't thinking about is that we have to lynch SOMEBODY tomorrow. If we lynch CMaR today, then someone else gets put on the lynching block tomorrow.

Obviously, if CMaR were to turn scum, it's better to lynch today. I've said it constantly:

If so, I think we need to be VERY careful about lynching someone today unless we have a really strong case against the person.

However, all of your arguments are with the situation, not with the scumhunting. Until I'm fully convinced that CMaR is scum, I'm not pulling the trigger

today

.

[yawetag]

If we lynch CMAR tomorrow, there's a good chance that, if he turns up town, we don't get that extra shot. That's the point of lynching him today. It ensures we get that extra shot.

You're honestly saying that lynching an extra body helps the town, even if that extra body turns up a townie?

Does anyone else have an opinion on this matter?

[yawetag]

Honestly, how do you propose playing mafia without lynching? You have to accept the risk of hitting town in order to hit scum.

In the situation we're in, by not lynching. In most cases, I would agree that a lynch is required, but worst-case scenario shows that it's not in the best interest for town.

To be honest, we're both running in circles here. We've both stated our feelings, and we've both given our own ideas on how the game can play out. I want to hear from other people on their opinions.

[yawetag]

This game's going to get really ugly if Tracker and cdubs are missing, too.

[yawetag]

evilsnail:

Given our current status (6/1/2) and there was no modkill rule:
If the setup allowed the town to lynch two targets in a day, would you suggest the double-lynch today? If so, explain why.

[yawetag]

It's a good thing we lynched a werewolf yesterday. Otherwise we'd have lost automatically on a mislynch.

So now you're agreeing with me? Interesting.

[yawetag]

No, I wasn't agreeing with you, because you are wrong.

Here are the numbers assuming only townies are killed and lynched (in town/maf/wolves order) if we lynch someone other than mavs:
After D2 - 4/1/2
After N2 - 2/1/2
After D3 - 1/1/2

In [this] scenario, we lose N3. There's no way to win:
1. Maf kills wolf - wolf kills town: 0/1/1. Town loses.
2. Maf kills wolf - wolf kills maf: 1/0/1. Town loses.
3. Maf kills town - wolf kills town (same target): 0/1/2. Town loses.
4. Maf kills town - wolf kills maf: 0/0/2. Town loses.

So that's wrong? That is

exactly

this:

It's a good thing we lynched a werewolf yesterday. Otherwise we'd have lost automatically on a mislynch.

And, for fairness, killing a mafia would have been just as good, and even better. It would have been one less death at night, since mafia would have been dead.

Heavy FoS evilsnail as mafia

.

[yawetag]

Okay, the case against The Tracker.

I was just in another game with him, in which he was town, and he was much more actively trying to find scum.

I'm not a huge fan of meta.

2) His Flareonage vote was scummilicious:

This I can agree with.

Evil, if the conversation hadn't been stagnating then I wouldn't have bothered saying that. It's foolish to draw out a day with 'more discussion' when there is no more discussion to be had.

There's almost always time for discussion, especially when, at that time, we were still 8 days from deadline (You voted Feb 2, deadline was Feb 10). Your vote put him at L-1, which is a very dangerous place to be.

Yeah, I've mostly been jumping on bandwagons but I find the wagon leaders had good points. Nothing wrong with agreeing, is there?

There's never anything wrong with agreeing. The problem is that you didn't agree in the flare vote. In fact, you gave two other reasons for the vote, both of which were basic responses with no backup. For CMaR, you had little discussion. I understand you were busy on double shifts, but there was time before that to make some arguments.

With that said, there is one thing that

can

be said about you: You were just as scummy against a werewolf AND a mafia. Unless you bussed one of your partners, you were acting the same for both factions.

[yawetag]

cdubs, what do you have to say? I know you're active on the site in other games. I'd love to hear your opinion on the game.

[yawetag]

I'm pretty sure EvilSnail is Town, though. He's the only one I would strongly object to lynching.

With that said, do you have any opinions on any other players?

[yawetag]

vote: yawetag

Not a good idea with mafia and wolves around. You know it only takes three votes to get me eliminated, right?

Please unvote, then I'll give my case. If you're not convinced afterward, feel free to put the vote back on.

[yawetag]

I also ask that people not hammer until I get a chance to defend myself. I'm busy until noon, then sleeping until around 11pm tonight. I will have a defense written by the time you wake up tomorrow (unless you're on late tonight).

[yawetag]

First of all, in the first few posts he got overly defensive when Reckoner voted him. Not just over the vote, but he was extremely defensive period over the reasons.

My defensive position was due to the fact that he

wasn't

giving any reasons.

-------------------------

Then of course in day two he was a big fan of either lynching mavsfan or not lynching that day at all. Sure, he put an FoS on CMAR, but mainly he was basically saying that since mavsfan was going to be modkilled we'd lose the game.

I

never

said that we would lose the game by lynching mavs. What I said was that lynching mavs was a

bad idea

, and gave my reasons why. In fact this quote:

It's a good thing we lynched a werewolf yesterday. Otherwise we'd have lost automatically on a mislynch.

is EXACTLY this scenario:

Here are the numbers assuming only townies are killed and lynched (in town/maf/wolves order) if we lynch someone other than mavs:
After D2 - 4/1/2
After N2 - 2/1/2

If CMaR had been a townie and not a wolf, we would be in the 2/1/2 situation. A mislynch would take us into the night with:

After D3 - 1/1/2

that... a losing situation, as evils says.

-------------------------

Now I won't say this didn't make sense on some level, but seriously, the vote was the only weapon the Town had, and then there's the possibility scum and wolfs could kill each other. Lynching would not have been a bad play at all, and it seems he was just trying to defend a wolfbuddy.

Now do you think I was defending a wolfbuddy? I just showed proof that I was worried that an all-town death yesterday would have brought us to a MYLO situation today.

-------------------------

But Day 2 really piques my interest since both CMAR and Yawetag were in favor of a mavsfan lynch. In fact, the ONLY ones in favor of a mavsfan lynch. How interesting...

This is where you're wrong. I

was

in favor of a CMaR lynch (you posted the quote yourself), but not given the modkill situation we were in.

-------------------------

Okay, so if you think CMAR is the best lynch, why did you not vote for him? You say he's the best lynch on the menu, and yet you continue to advocate mavsfan being lynched for a mathematical reason that we 'may lose.' Looks like wolfbuddies to me. In fact, I convinced myself.

My vote was on mavs simply because my scenarios showed lynching any one on top of mavs was a dangerous bridge to cross, UNLESS we had enough evidence to prove the person was scum. There was never strong enough evidence to prove CMaR was scum, so I wasn't taking the chance.

-------------------------

With all of that said, lynching me is probably the worst idea the town could do:

I trust Cat the most.

yawetag is Cat, btw

I trust evilsnail and yawetag.

I Trust yawetag

Although I definitely agree that yawetag was wrong about the CMAR lynch yesterday, I do think he was sincere in his beliefs. So I'm not sure your evidence is as strong as you make it out to be.

I think yawetag would be a terrible lynch today.

In that list, we've got 2 people that died as town or masons, one that's currently AWOL, and someone else that's alive. I think having four people explicitly state that I'm trusted in some capacity says a lot.

Did you even read the discussion on Day 2? You were gone for 7 days, and there was A LOT of discussion and scenarios during the week. I may be wrong, but you came in, realized the vote count and hammered. There was no reasoning with the vote, no discussion, NOTHING.

-------------------------

Since we're in a MYLO situation, and we have a player who appears to have flaked, wouldn't it be smart for the last mason to claim? With a claimed mason (and no counterclaim), the mason can lead the lynch. If there is a counterclaim, it leaves a 50% chance for finding scum.

Without the claim to lower our chances, we're in a crappy situation that, and I hate to say it

again

today, makes a NL a better situation.

If we decide to no lynch, we have the following situations:
1. cdubs town / no lynch: 2/1/1 at night - 60% chance of occuring
2. cdubs scum / no lynch: 3/1/0 or 3/0/1 at night - 40% chance of occuring

In Situation #1, the only way town could win is if scum cross-killed, which will only happen 11% of the time. With the 60% chance of cdubs turning town AND the 11% chance of cross-fire occuring, there's a 6.7% chance of it occuring.

In Situation #2, which will happen 40% of the time, town will live to D4, finding itself in a LYLO situation (2/1/0 or 2/0/1). The LYLO gives the town a 33% chance to win (3 people left; 1 is scum). With the 40% chance of cdubs turning scum AND the 33% chance of winning in D4, there's a 13.33% chance of town winning this way.

In essence, the town will have a 20% chance of town winning if we no lynch and let cdubs get modkilled.

Now, if we do lynch someone, there are 4 situations that can occur (numbering continued for ease of reading):
3. cdubs town / lynch town: 1/1/1 at night - 30% chance of occuring
4. cdubs town / lynch scum: 2/0/1 or 2/1/0 at night - 30% chance of occuring
5. cdubs scum / lynch town: 2/0/1 or 2/1/0 at night - 30% chance of occuring
6. cdubs scum / lynch scum: 3/0/0 at night - 10% chance of occuring

I will leave Situation #3 for last, as it

can

be a bit confusing (and

I'd like Moderator input

).

In Situation #4 and #5 (which are basically the same -- a townie and a scum die), the town will lose when the last-surviving scum kills at night. This will happen a total of 60% of the time.

In Situation #6, town wins immediately. This will happen 10% of the time.

Now, for Situation #3 (which will happen 30% of the time). According to the role PMs on Post #1, scum can only win if all the townies AND all the other scum are dead. If I'm reading it correctly, in a 1/1/1 situation at night, it

is

possible for a crossfire to let the town win. Because of this, there is a 25% chance of town winning if this situation occurs. With the 30% chance of lynching two townies AND the 25% chance of winning by scum crossfire, there's a 7.5% chance of town winning in this situation.

In essence, the town will have a 17.5% chance of town winning if we lynch somebody and let cdubs get modkilled.

I also ran a check if Mason claimed when we decided to lynch (there would be no reason for a claim if we're NL), and I'd be glad to show the work if you care. Essentially, with a mason claim, we lose the crossfire chance in Situation #3, as it would be smart for scum to attack the known townie instead of a random shot. Because of this, the town could only win with a scum lynch and scum modkill, which came out to 16.67% of the time.

With these numbers, (20% with no lynch, 17.5% lynch, 16.67% mason claim), it's my idea that we

no lynch

today. Obviously, lynching cdubs is the same as a no lynch, unless cdubs returns.

If someone is voted on and they're Mason, they should claim, despite my calculations. The reason I say that is simple: there's a chance a counterclaim could come out and the town only has to choose between two "masons," giving them a 50% chance to find scum (instead of 40%).

Mod:

Am I correct in that a 1/1/1 situation at night can lead to a town win, using my crossfire example? Also, if we're in a 1/1/1 situation and maf and wolf targets the townie,

[yawetag]

On the basis of this, I think that, if it seriously looks like cdubs is going to get modkilled, a No Lynch might be best.

Wow. We agree. I spent the last hour typing my math (which looks very close to your's) hoping to convince

you

of the no lynch. It looks like I didn't have to.

As far as a Mason claim, if it's agreed on, we have to have it done quickly (within 24 hours). If there's breadcrumbs around, the mason shouldn't mention it in their original "I'm Mason" post -- give a chance for a counterclaim.

Everyone, what are your thoughts on a Mason claim? I haven't gone over every possible situation, but the fact that maf and wolf knows they can't kill the Mason at night without chancing Prisoner's Gambit makes it a bit better. I know my math shows it being the worst scenario of the three, but I didn't factor in the gambit ending.

[yawetag]

Barring any objections, the Mason should claim very quickly. We should still give some time for a counterclaim, though, before jumping on the first claim. If there is a counterclaim, each claim should give reasons to either show or help sway their claim is true. Once a mason is found, they lead the town.

[yawetag]

Oh, well. I couldn't get a fake claim out of scum.

I am the last Mason.

I'll hold proof (of which I have some) until there's a counterclaim or you put me on the noose.

With that said, what's our next course of action? I can run some numbers, but I don't know if it's worth it.

[yawetag]

I think what we do now depends on cdubs. If cdubs posts, I think we should lynch The Tracker. If not, we should No Lynch.

The bad part is that he's active on the site. He posted 3 hours ago in another game. cdubs, if you're lurking, you need to post; not posting right now is the worst thing you can do. No matter your alignment, you're going to die tonight by modkill.

[yawetag]

Not so sure I believe yawetag to be completely honest. His gambit appeared to look a bit like rolefishing to me, actually...

Are you counterclaiming? If not, I haven't seen anyone else do the same. As I said, I have proof of my claim. Do you want me to give it to you?

[yawetag]

Though I love votes on The Tracker, we should hold off hammering until cdubs has posted his thoughts.

Then it may be wise for you to remove your vote.

[yawetag]

I suppose so, though I hardly think we need extreme caution here.

Unvote

.

Even if Tracker is scum, there's still another out there that would have no problem lynching anyone.

[yawetag]

OH WOW hey guys sorry I very much forgot about this game I deleted my message with the link to it. Here I am. I'll read through all that has happened and give you guys my thoughts.

We only have about 48 hours left, which would include getting a lynch (or no lynch) in.

Funny how there's no response from The Tracker on why he doesn't believe my claim, especially since there hasn't been any counterclaim.

[yawetag]

OH WOW hey guys sorry I very much forgot about this game I deleted my message with the link to it. Here I am. I'll read through all that has happened and give you guys my thoughts.

EBWOP.

I just thought of something. cdubs, how could you forget about the game? Did it take a prod from Papa Zito to remind you that you were in this game?

[yawetag]

I'm more upset that cdubs isn't replying, even to say he's making a case. For this reason, there are two possibilities:

1. He really did forget about the game.
2. He's scum doing a horrible job of lurking.

As lurker scum, he would be forced to at least follow the thread. When he saw that we were worried about his absence, he said nothing. When we said that he needed to talk, he said nothing. He didn't say anything until he was prodded.

As townie, it's possible he forgot about the game. I don't see how (there's a nice "Watch this topic" link at the bottom-left, with a "Watched Topics" link at the top), but it is possible.

I'm thinking he's town, and I'm not targeting him at all today. The fact that he posted takes away the modkill, which leaves us with a better situation.

[yawetag]

Deadline is today, so, yawetag, you need to hammer The Tracker at some point soon.

I was giving cdubs a bit more time. I'm fairly confident Tracker is scum, and his sudden quietness doesn't help his case.

vote: The Tracker

In case I die tonight, I think cdubs is town. Of the other two, it's a toss-up and I'd have to spend some time analyzing posts to make that decision. We'll cross that bridge when we get there.

[yawetag]

EBWOP: "I think cdubs is town" should be "I'm fairly confident cdubs is town."

[yawetag]

wtf happened

The game ended. I'm not sure if town or scum won, but shrine's posts make me think town won.

[yawetag]

GET BACK IN YOUR HOLES DAMN IT IT AINT OVER TILL ITS OVER!

*Double taps*

DIE ZOMBIES DIE

Uh. Two votes on shrine made the game over. We're in twilight.

[yawetag]

I'm still confused. shrine was the last scum? I'd love to talk post-game, but I'm holding out for the official ending.

[yawetag]

If you didn't think Shrine was the last scum maybe it was a good thing you replaced out... heh

It's part of my post-game.

[yawetag]

YES!!!! GO TOWN!!!!

First off, before I make any post-game comments, I'd like to explain my sudden departure from the game.

As I was playing chat-based Mafia on another site, a message came across the chat stating evilsnail was the last scum. I asked the other player if they were evilsnail. They denied and stated who they were.

With this (now-known-incorrect) information, I immediately screen-printed the chat and PMed it to Papa Zito along with my recommendation to be taken out of the game. I expected a reply similar to "It doesn't matter -- the game is over," but instead received a "Thanks for the info. I'll let you know what will be done." I was surprised to see that both myself and evilsnail were still alive.

I feel I must apologize for the situation, but it wasn't my fault. In hindsight, I'm glad the chat occurred. I had decided that if I had lived to D4, I was lynching evilsnail -- even before the chat I received.

Post-game coming soon.

Mod:

Can you post (or can we post) the URL to our respective QTs? I'd love to see the chat between the scum, and I'm sure others would enjoy the Mason's.

[yawetag]

I was pretty relieved when Fate replaced you. I was expecting you to come after me D4. Why were you so suspicious of me?

Our argument on D2 on whether to lynch or not, then your complete turn-around on D3. Also, your idea of having the Mason claim D3 smelled of a way to narrow down options for that night.

I knew yawetag was the remaining mason, because there are some pretty clear breadcrumbs.

There's the dana thing and another really obvious one.

I only said this because I cottoned on to the fact that yawetag was trying to elicit a fake claim.

Before I complete my write-up, I'd love to know what the "really obvious one" was -- I want to see if what I did worked as well as I planned.

@Dana/Fate: Do you mind if I share the link to our QT?

[yawetag]

First off, my complaints:

The Modkill Rule

While I understand the rule eliminates the need to find replacements, which makes the game run smoother, I think it adds an element to the game that changes the balance -- the fact that there's an extra death. It was the root of the argument between evil and I on D2. Without the cloud of modkill over the head of the group, I think D2 would have been a lot smoother.

Personally, it's not fair for town, even if the modkill is scum. The town is forced to look at all of these "what if" scenarios -- scenarios that change the strategy the town was going for. A lot, if not all, of the "what if" scenarios look at the modkill as being a townie -- never as scum.

Fate Replacement

In a replacement, I think the only roles that would be allowed to return are ones that have NO other knowledge a simple townie would have. This eliminates any roles that investigate (cops, trackers, watchers), scum, and any group. In effect, I would ask myself one simple question: "Does this player have ANY knowledge that any other player in this game doesn't have WITHOUT QUESTION?"

Yes, I was an un-CCed Mason and Fate was a Mason -- it's a logical replacement. However, it fully cleared my role as a Mason. There's no way you would place a dead Mason into ANY other spot in the game.

For all we know, shrine could have tried to make a CC the next day. It essentially forced the decision to be between shrine and evil, with no way to place any doubt on the third player. It turned a 33% chance into a 50% chance.

---

My Play

Yes, I was the last Mason. Sadly, DKU's "I trust Cat... I mean yawetag" posts took any doubt away. It was obvious he read his PM and forgot that Cat was replaced. While it was nice to have the backup, it still surprises me that I was never killed at night. To me, I was the most logical N2 kill -- almost everyone in the group trusted me.

It's nice to see that evil didn't find the biggest breadcrumb I left (edited to show breadcrumb):

D

on't act so fast on this trust issue.

A

s I think about it, it's not a good idea.

N

othing good can come out of it.

A

s I see it, listing two people removes the chance of the town knowing the third Mason if the second is killed.

I

t's really easy to explain.

S

imply put:

M

asons will list their partner, as well as a random third person.

A

Mason kill at night, or even a Mason lynch, will cause a counter-claim between the two "trusted" players -- especially if one of them is non-town.

S

o, this puts us in the same situation we're already in.

O

ur position would be no better than it is now.

N

either of the "trusted" players can be fully trusted, and the town will be forced to lynch one of them.

W

ho wants to be in that type of situation?

I

think it's better for the Masons to leave breadcrumbs and keep from fighting with their partner so it's easier for the town to clear the third.

T

his way, the scum can't use any information that's given so blatantly, such as a list.

H

opefully, the town can find the clues without tipping the scum.

M

y list will be kept personal unless the group thinks it's a better idea.

E

veryone should then participate, though, and ones that don't give a list should be looked at very closely.

It was left more to clear DKU in later days than it was to clear me -- anyone could have argued that I made the post in an attempt to fake-claim my way as the last Mason; with DKU dead, I could have only hoped it would have worked -- and would have only used it as a last resort.

I wanted the message to convey a point. Having a random post to attempt that type of breadcrumb would have stuck out like a sore thumb. Luckily, after about 30 minutes of thinking, I realized I could argue the "trust list" while placing the crumb -- I was going to argue against it anyway. Once I realized a list of two people would be huge trouble if one was scum, the rest was simply writing it in a way to not make it appear disjointed or hashed together.

I told DKU about the post the next night. He was worried that it was too obvious. I told him that it was only to be used in a case of having to prove you were the last Mason. We also talked about trying to get a counter-claim when it seemed right to claim. I attempted it, but no one took the bait. In fact, the back-and-forth "Mason should claim" chat between evil and myself was EXACTLY what I wanted. My hope was that one of the scum would try to claim it -- especially after the "obvious" last Mason was denying it. No one bit, so my next hope was that someone would counter-claim after I did, using "Why didn't you do it yesterday? You're scum trying to take the claim!" At that point, I'd have asked for a counter-claim, and, if there was one, first use the "Why would DKU state they trust me -- and only me -- if you're the last Mason?" If that didn't work, my breadcrumb would have been pointed out.

Alas, it was never needed.

Looking back, I only see two flaws in my game:
1) The D2 math-fight with evil. The ONLY reason I kept it going was that I felt he was scum trying to get the town behind him. My real thought was that he was bussing his partner -- there's no easier way to get the town on your side. I couldn't have been more wrong.

2) Not even suspecting shrine. I never once had any inkling that shrine was scum.

---

Play of Others

I certainly can't talk about everyone's play, so I'll mention what sticks out in my head.

CMaR

You were screwed the second you replaced SK. I don't think there was any way you could have escaped a lynch. However, I didn't see you really try. It's possible you read through and realized how quickly the boat was sinking, but it's still not a bad idea to at least grab the pail and start bailing.

DKU

The biggest problem I saw was referring to me as Cat when giving your trust list. It didn't escape my notice, so I'm almost positive it didn't escape other's. It still surprises me that you were killed that next night.

xRECK

Your style confused me from the start, and I think the only reason you were killed was simply because you had some hand in both lynches. I had you as scum. It's your playstyle, so I can't argue against it -- it just struck me as scum in this game.

shrine

Great job as scum. I haven't read through the entire thread yet, but, as I said before, I never suspected you as scum. My biggest problem was your not knowing who CMaR replaced. I chalked it up as just not paying attention, though.

---

Please, if anyone has opinions on my play (good, bad, or ugly), let's talk about it. In addition, I'd love to hear what everyone has to say about my opinions on you (or others). I can honestly say that this game has been my most favorite of the ones I've played here.

[yawetag]

I forgot to mention my N3 predicament. I was worried that there was no way the town could win. The best we could have hoped for, barring a no-kill by one of the scum, was a 1-1-1 situation. When I first thought about it, I chalked it up to a loss to town. No matter who was lynched on that day, town would lose.

It then struck me that the best action would be no lynch. First off, show scum that they also couldn't win during the day -- the best they could do is tie. Then, before the NL went through, start WIFOMing both. Talk about how there would be no way to win if they didn't attack the other scum that night (it's true!). This would cause both scum to kill each other and town would win.

I was hoping that would be the case. However, cdubs flaked and was killed, giving town a much-better chance at winning.

[yawetag]

Oh and I have no problems posting the Mason QT. I deleted my role PM with the link after I died anyway, because, well, I was dead.

Barring a complaint in the next few hours from DKU, I'll post it tonight. It's not nearly as hilarious as shrine's, but I feel it's nice to open the book for everyone to read.

[yawetag]

Forgot to give the link for QT:
http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/PHraHVQqAhHn