Mafia 107 - Christmas Time Mafia (Game over)

[TheLonging]

I'm also a bit shaky on AtE. What exactly does that mean, and can you point out examples?

[Konowa]

Mafiascum. Loading. So. Slow. Post up when I am sure it will go up.

Hi Amished.

[Amished]

@

soras

, ready2rock,

TheLonging

: How do you feel about how you've played this game so far?

OH HAI Konowa! Sorry I missed you

AtE is an Appeal to Emotion. Saying stuff like "if you lynch me you're just losing a townie and a day of scumhunting" or something along those lines. You're just playing on the emotions (omg lost chance to lynch scum!) rather than defending yourself through your actions which you should be able to do as a pro-town player.

[TheLonging]

Oh, that's AtE. That's how I usually play mafia, but I see that it can usually be bad. I've been trying to defend myself, and CMAR is the only one who listens.

sorasgoof: What do you think of my arguments/defenses for CMAR? Are they invalid at all?

[TheLonging]

EBWOP: *only one who is listening now

[Amished]

Also, I'd like to keep TheLonging alive at least until Sora/r2r have answered my question.

[Konowa]

If you wish for me to go in-depth regarding the whys of the post that is about to follow, let me know and I will explain. I feel that the reasoning should be fairly obvious though and do not feel like typing it all out right now. So, with that being said, here are my thoughts:

After Dizzy votes Navy, the following votes occur until my vote:

TheLonging votes sorasgoof.

Fugitive

votes

diddin

.
ready2rock votes pman.
Raven votes Richard.
InflatablePie votes Raven.

This is the brief DoS wagon that took off after I placed my Navy vote and asked about the lack of discussion:

Parama

,

Richard

, TheLonging, sorasgoof, ready2rock

This is the diddin wagon after Nico's post:

Richard,

Navy

, TheLonging, pman5595, InflatablePie, DedicatedScribe,

Parama

Out of all this mess, I am pretty confident that one of TheLonging or

InflatablePie

Amished is mafiascum. In addition to this, if one of them is mafiascum, I'm going to wager that the last mafiascum is off the diddin lynch.

That would include:

sorasgoof, ready2rock, Bogre, Raven, CryMeARiver

sorasgoof and Raven are neck and neck for me right now, with sorasgoof getting the slight edge for his D2 play.

Now regarding the "sliced" kill, I am fairly certain that it is a SK. The two people I believe have a good chance of being the SK is either ready2rock or DedicatedScribe. The "diddin is on everyone's lynch list" post really strikes me as scum trying to push a wagon without placing oneself on it. The fact that r2r is not on a diddin lynch when it occurs backs this up. DedicatedScribe is more of a gut feeling than anything else. Let me try and explain. I do not remember any stance taken by the player he replaced, Annachie, and post 1093 is scummy to me in how forced it sounds. That progression of thought post over something that only took two pages to clear up really does not sit well with me.

---

tl;dr:

One of {TheLonging,

InflatablePie

Amished} is mafiascum.
One of {sorasgoof, Raven} is mafiascum.
One of {ready2rock, DedicatedScribe} is SK.


@TheLonging,

InflatablePie

Amished, sorasgoof, and Raven - Who are the remaining mafiascum?

@everyone - Thoughts on r2r and DedicatedScribe?

I am not ready for a lynch just yet.

vote Amished

[TheLonging]

Does that mean who do you think are scum, or who do you know are scum?

[Konowa]

No I do not have any two's.

Go fish.

[TheLonging]

"@TheLonging, Amished, sorasgoof, and Raven - Who are the remaining mafiascum?"

"Does that mean who do you think are scum, or who do you know are scum?"

I don't get what you are saying, but do you have any Kings?

[DizzyIzzyB13]

That's an inadequate response to being L-1.

[Konowa]

Well, by your claim you obviously can not

know

who the remaining mafiascum are, TheLonging. So, who are the remaining mafiascum?

[TheLonging]

Well my vote is on pman, and I really don't like DedicatedScribe for voting for me with a bad reason, but outside of that, I don't have suspicions on anyone else.

[Amished]

@Konowa: Raven and r2r are my top two suspects right now.

However, pman and TheLonging are two people that I keep going back and forth on; and I want to see more out of them.

Regarding your analysis of SK, being a lone member a lot of standard tells are rendered useless (no buddies, etc..) while others are just as valid. SK's aren't likely to be caught by votecounts since they're actively scumhunting (and know that scum is out there) while sk tells are also mafia tells (I won't get into this, but the last time I thought somebody was SK he ended up just being mafia, but whatever).

As such, I think r2r's pushing for diddin's lynch while not being on it is more of a mafia tell since they know that their partners are on or off a wagon and don't want to be caught with them (pushing while not being held accountable) while an SK is actively scumhunting and can deal with whoever they want on their own at night.

(for reference here is where I call d3x 3rd party but he was actually just a mafia goon)

[Amished]

BTW: I hate those types of posts, Konowa.

Either your cases are strong enough to make somebody appear scum on their own or they aren't. Tying people together is a bad way to make your "case" appear stronger than it is.

[Konowa]

I know you [Amished] are going to provide reasoning for your reads once you get fully caught up so I will not press you on that matter. How is tying people together through wagon analysis bad? Do you find anything wrong with what I said or are you just disagreeing with theory? I do not know what to think about if you are just disagreeing with theory.

Regarding r2r, thinking about it that way I suppose it is more of a mafia tell. Gut just does not think he is mafia though. I maybe reading too much into some of his posts though.

Regarding ckd's fourth neighbor, I think she/he should claim before we end the day.

[Konowa]

@Mod and all: I will be V/LA this weekend (1/30-2/1) and again the following weekend (2/6-2/8).

[CryMeARiver]

I just checked the page once more to see if I missed anything...the 4th neighbor mentioned this post after my last post at night....

Is one of his abilities to scan? If so, and you want him to take the risk, have him scan me if he chooses to.

this was a good catch....Longing, why did you feel it important to direct a possible investigation? With so many power roles floating about, there is probably a mafia GF around. This is a suspicious post.

looking forward to you post.

Oh, I misread this...I thought it meant that TL was a neighbor...dang my brain

[sorasgoof]

@Amished (I think). How do I think I've played this game? I think that despite what most people think of me, I've genuinely been trying to help the town. That whole "Mafia Roleblocker" thing I brought up still baffles me today- WHY WAS THAT SCUMMY? Without getting too far into WiFoM, I can't FATHOM a reason why I would've mentioned a mafia roleblocker if I knew there was one. I simply would have told (asked) Navy to block Richard that night to make him look stupid. Also, I don't see why the fact that there is a mafia roleblocker makes me any more scummy (@ CKD).

Overall, I've tried to be helpful, and I think I've played a good game. Other than speculating about a mafia roleblocker, and not knowing what a roleblocker does, the former of which apparently being bad play, I think I've played a better game than my first Scorehero game.

If you have any other questions, feel free to ask.

Speaking of Scorehero, I need to get back to that game.

[Amished]

@Konowa: Because no scum situation is always the same. I saw a game where one (out of four) scum were on a lynch of a player. I saw plenty of times when all the scum were on a wagon. Unless you can be relatively certain that the scum are specifically looking to not wagoning together; your point about one scum on/one scum off is nothing more than conjecture.

Perhaps townies thought that one wagon was better than a second one. They read the game differently and think that one person is 100% scum, so they're not gonna be on any wagon that the "scum" is on. There's no way that you can really account for all possible permutations in saying that "one of these two are scum, 100%". If you could really be even anywhere close to that sure, then you'd also be able to figure out which of the two was scum and you wouldn't need to tie the two together.

Perhaps one scum is gonna play with the town and follow a fellow scummer that they think will play well, and then get cleared cause "nobody would be that obvious" if the good one is caught. Townies follow strong personalities all the time, it'd definitely be a possibility.

Either tie a player to a dead scum (in the case of mafia, which is still risky if you do it wrong) or prove that they're scummy on their own. Or clear others due to the interactions of a scum or something.

Look at the votes, say why the scum motivation is there and get people to believe you if you truly think one of each of those pairings are scum.

Also, I'm fully caught up. Any particular read of mine that you questioned/wanted to know more about?

[Bogre]

CKD:

I am not 'afraid' of reposting it. Please stop trying to blatantly misrepresent me. Its the same thing whether you read it in the thread or whether from me copying and pasting the entire thing here. I mean, do you honestly expect everyone to repost things they've said because you are too lazy to look them up yourself?

Your attribution of my motives as due to fear is incorrect- instead of frustration at your unwillingness to be active yourself in this game and at your tone towards me.

Sora- I think much worse of him now that a mafia RB has been shown. It seems extremely likely that he slipped.

Pman is more scummy than TL is at the moment. I've been keeping up with his wagon. One thing I'd like to see is an explanation of this paraphrasing business.

[DedicatedScribe]

Konowa, I don't know what you mean by forced.

I apologize for not being able to play more effectively, but I subbed in at a point where there were many pages. I'm still trying to catch up

TheLonging, I really can't produce more evidence against you than that which is already there. I suppose this is a bandwagon, but I want you lynched (for I believe you to be scum) and that's that.

I feel a little blind to everything, but if I attempted to re-read the mafia like one would read a book, I'd end up lurking and getting subbed out.

[Amished]

Finally, I'll go back to the initial post where Izzy has her point against Navy: The 4 of {diddin, DoS, Pie/me, Navy} were on the major bandwagons at the time. Obviously 3 of those are dead, 2 of which are town and 1 scum. You could argue that "scum need to bandwagon" and that I'm scum because of that or "there's not likely 50% of the group that would be scum" and say I'm not. Wagon analysis, in my opinion, is largely based on selected experiences rather than cold hard statistics which is what you're trying to base your theory on it seems.

Bring up 100+ games of data, show why it's more likely to be one way or another. Until then, you're going on your own experiences and trying to extrapolate from a very limited data set that won't account or control for all variables.

Also going back to the situation after Izzy voted and put her case out on Navy. Should Annachie (now Dedicated), soras, TheLonging, Raven and CryMe be considered scum because they didn't acknowledge the case from Izzy onto Navy just on the page that Izzy first posted? And here I think my major hangup is: how do you really discern apathy and hoping that something will go away (Izzy's case) and voting for your own reads/case in which you have more invested over the period as scummy or just belief in oneself? From what I've seen of Izzy so far this game, she's a great poster but not as vocal or assertive or ... what's the word I'm looking for here.. memorable! as other people. There are several reasons (some pro-town as evidenced by our only dead person that you brought up voting after that {Fugi} being town).

For your lists of other wagons, why do you not focus more on TheLonging being on all three of them? (Voting somebody else after Izzy's case, on DoS and on Diddin)

Or finally, how about my experience in that people who bandwagon a lot aren't necessarily scum. In two recent examples where I tried to use their votes against somebody: Mafia 94; the two most "bandwagoning" people in the end game were town; and they were on 3-4 more bandwagons than either of the scum. Now that I think about it, either of them were on more bandwagons than the scum combined in endgame. Last Man Standing mafia: Vi and I were easily throwing our votes around the most; we were both town. I think in half of D1 Vi voted for more people than any scum that made it to end game.

Experiences can tell any story that you want it to, statistics show what's really going on. Until I get the latter rather than the former, I'll continue to be unimpressed.

Sorry that this post is all over the place, but there's a lot of thoughts floating around that I have that contradict pure "vote analysis"

[curiouskarmadog]

@Amished (I think). How do I think I've played this game? I think that despite what most people think of me, I've genuinely been trying to help the town. That whole "Mafia Roleblocker" thing I brought up still baffles me today- WHY WAS THAT SCUMMY? Without getting too far into WiFoM, I can't FATHOM a reason why I would've mentioned a mafia roleblocker if I knew there was one. I simply would have told (asked) Navy to block Richard that night to make him look stupid. Also, I don't see why the fact that there is a mafia roleblocker makes me any more scummy (@ CKD).

no it was HOW you did it.....we were discussing richard's use of the investigation AND why we should keep him alive versus killing him (because he was super close to the lynch)..you then came out with

Oh, and if your investigation is blocked, we'll really be in a pickle. I'm not sure I'd believe you if you come back with a blocked investigation. That'd be too easy to make up, you know?

so not sure why you are acting like it came up in a different way. what is scummy, is that it came out of no where...no one mention a mafia blocker, but you came out with it....it was random and scummy. THAT is what I am a problem with.

[curiouskarmadog]

Sora- I think much worse of him now that a mafia RB has been shown. It seems extremely likely that he slipped.

who is the him and what slip are you talking about with sora?

my problem with you is that we are on Day 3..you posted that in day 1...there is a ton of stuff that has happened sicne then, but you still are "pushing" a case that you are not actively pursuing..

IT IS CALLED COASTING...it is anti-town.