Mini 885 - Boom, Game Gutshot/Abandoned by Mod!

[hitogoroshi]

You know what? I was going to dig through EG and xvart's posts, and then I realized something. Why the hell am I letting 5cvm get away without providing any content?

What craziness made me forget we have a noncontributor slot??

unvote, vote:5cvm

You're apparently not claiming scum anymore because the numbers wouldn't work out. So how about you actually play the goddamn game, huh?

For the record, I still intend on doing some research on EG or xvart (expect at least one of them today). I just want my vote in a useful place.

[Boxman]

Prodding Humble Poirot.

Vote Count 1 of Day 2

xvart (1) - A_Squirrel
5cvm (1) - hitogoroshi

Not Voting (6) - Evilgorrilaz, Humble Poirot, xvart, 5cvm, TheButtonmen, ChiboSempai

Votes to Lynch: 5
Deadline: January 26, 2010, 8 PM CST

[A_Squirrel]

Boxman, I should be voting xvart(post 583).

Also, am I the only one kind of disappointed activity wise?
Button and 5cvm are just fingering SKs without providing evidence nor applying any real pressure.
Humble's disappeared.
EG is still his usual not so useful self.
Chibo and xvart have given some of their thoughts, but seem to me rather noncommittal.
So ultimately, neither Hito's nor my analysis is really achieving anything, other than "oh, that's nice."
I'm hoping that most of this is from people doing their own analysis, and other relevant things, rather than people waiting and watching on the fence for a sign from the heavens that so and so is sk/scum. As others have said, we're in a pretty good position here, with at worst 1 SK, 1 scum, and 6 townies (including the relevant power roles). I'd like to see some more pressure, more actions, from town because as it stands I feel like this is going to go down the drain fast.

Now, I'm assuming button and 5cvm have reasons for their SK suspicions, and I'd like to hear those. Otherwise I'm going to assume they're fishing for reactions, and it seems to me that without a vote behind it, it's rather weak (especially 5cvm given his past actions).
EG, I'd like to hear your thoughts on some players, preferably who could be sk/scum. I'd rather not read a list of who seems townie and who you have no idea about.
I'm looking forward to the results of xvart's pondering and hito's rereads, and I'll try to put some more together as well, and hopefully, we'll get some actions and reactions and get things moving.

[A_Squirrel]

ebwop: oh, and we've also got a deadline in 10 days.

[Boxman]

Vote count repaired.

Modtip: Votes are easier to spot if they are in a new line.

[TheButtonmen]

We know there's a SK and I'm fairly convinced that the Mafia is no more, thus it's SK huntin time.

Vote: Chibo

,read his posts since the night and how he responded to the suggestion to SK hunt.

[ChiboSempai]

I'm going to be away until Tuesday morning. I'm at Pound 4 and I don't have as much internet time as I thought.

The SK hunt is fine, I don't see how there isn't one. I've already added insight in it if you read back. What I'm also saying though, why do people think there isn't another mafia person? thats what i dont get.

[Humble Poirot]

Sorry for the delay... I had written some stuff at the beginning of the day but didnt get to post it and then was unable to post.

I'll post soon.

[hitogoroshi]

I just realized something.

Let's say we have three mafia, an sk, and a vig.

Mislynch d1, sk kill on a townie, mafia kill, misvig.

We start D2 with eight players...and it's LYLO.

I am now almost certain there only two mafia, and we got them both. That above scenario is simply too imbalanced (especially with a mafia doctor) and too POSSIBLE for me to think it's the set-up.

So it looks like my case on squirrel is more or less moot, because it IS just an sk left. We don't get to use associative tells here.

That being said, I think I like button's line of thought re:Chibo. So I'm throwing my old analysis (based off of associative tells) out the window and I'll look in to the plausibility of chibo-sk.

Of course it goes without saying that I don't move my vote from 5cvm until he actually contributes.

[TheButtonmen]

Come Hitogoroshi, Your letting yourself be side tracked agian! Vote for great justice, Vote for Chibo!

Look at his posts; going on about how Mafia Doc is a powerful role, I ask you who thinks that? People who have a kill! And it doesn't really stop town as town has the greatest power of all, the Lynch! Now who kills at night, isn't town and isn't mafia, the SK!

Also @Humble; where's that post you promised?

@Everyone; Its been over 24hrs since the last post in this game, don't let D1 be a repeat of D2.

P.S Vote Chibo

[Humble Poirot]

Ok. I'm not gonna keep annoying you guys... I've been having some personal problems in real life and never actually found the time or the desire to make the post to play the game as I probably should.

I haven't been able to really connect with this game... :/

First, I was waiting to see if a certain person would slip up and get him but I'm not really interested in it anymore.

So I'll proceed to vote ChiboSempai for being probably an SK.

I had thought a lot about the game on the first few days and then never wrote anything... I found very little:

------
What I got from reading Civil is that hito is OBV town. There's ABSOLUTELY no way that Civil would buss both hito and aranfan. Aranfan's links with 5cvm also improve my town-read on 5cvm to almost 100%.

Either could be sk but they're not.

Top scum:
hito and arafan

Tied for third:
brosius and humble

Warm holiday fuzzies for now:
Tommy
Buttons

scum killed Tommy.
Sk killed Furry/Brosius.
Vig killed Civil.

I'm certain that with Civil's leading attitude, he was the one to pick Tommy for the kill.

With 8 people today. We'll get the SK.
----------
I was pretty sure we had one SK yesterday and I'm now pretty sure we still have another scum guy left. We should lynch SK because he is probably unkillable (1 time, perhaps).

Vote ChiboSempai

I'd like him to claim his role and action (if he has one). I'm pretty sure he is not town aligned, and, based on his connections with dead scum and his posts today, I'm sure he is SK.

Of the remaining people... we have xvart, button, EG and squirrel. Scum is there. IMO. Vig should consider killing any of them.

Now that I've posted about the game... I'll try to find Aran+Civil's scumbuddy for tomorrow.

I'm wary of button's "mafia is no more" speech. DO NOT trust him.

[hitogoroshi]

Oh my god, this game is dying a slow activity death.

Unvote, Vote:ChiboSempai

.

Still waiting for you to do something, 5cvm. Really I'm waiting for pretty much all of you to do something.

[TheButtonmen]

@Mod;

Can we get some aggressive prodding? Enforcement of prod rules is

probably

needed at this point.

[A_Squirrel]

That's L-2 Chibo.

Mod, can we get a prod/replace on EG?

He hasn't posted on the site in a while, is being prodded in one of his games and has been replaced in another.

And honestly, I'm waiting for some chibo action right now. Not too sure on the scum or no scum thing, hito's comments earlier make sense, though they assume that town misses twice when 1/3 of the population is against town.

Also, understood Humble, pretty sure most of us aren't really feeling this game. At least we have a deadline this time(7 days). XD

[hitogoroshi]

And honestly, I'm waiting for some chibo action right now. Not too sure on the scum or no scum thing, hito's comments earlier make sense, though they assume that town misses twice when 1/3 of the population is against town.

Yeah, after thinking about it a bit there's a chance of three scum and one sk. It'd be balanced against town for sure, but if you're in the mindset of 'Vig is GREAT for town, always, and balances it hard for town" instead of "another killing role in a 12p...?" it'd be something that could get by the censors. Regardless, it's a slim enough chance I'd rather ignore associative tells unless we kill the sk and the game still continues.

[A_Squirrel]

Yeah, after thinking about it a bit there's a chance of three scum and one sk. It'd be balanced against town for sure, but if you're in the mindset of 'Vig is GREAT for town, always, and balances it hard for town" instead of "another killing role in a 12p...?" it'd be something that could get by the censors. Regardless, it's a slim enough chance I'd rather ignore associative tells unless we kill the sk and the game still continues.

Right, I was just thinking in terms of random actions, in which case 4/9 of the time, town mislynches and misvigs. Though at that point it gets complicated with 3 parties with 1 lynch and 3 kills in play. Actually it's 14/33 so slightly less often(42%).

[xvart]

I would also disagree with the idea that the sk is randomly killing--the sk needs to live till endgame so I would imagine he would try not to stand out to prevent NKs and target strong/important players to weaken town.

So you agree that the SK is not randomly killing, but your suggestion is not about the SK killing pattern, but about day play. If the SK is not randomly killing, what do we base the kills off of when analyzing them?

Come Hitogoroshi, Your letting yourself be side tracked agian! Vote for great justice, Vote for Chibo!

Look at his posts; going on about how Mafia Doc is a powerful role, I ask you who thinks that? People who have a kill! And it doesn't really stop town as town has the greatest power of all, the Lynch! Now who kills at night, isn't town and isn't mafia, the SK!

Also @Humble; where's that post you promised?

@Everyone; Its been over 24hrs since the last post in this game, don't let D1 be a repeat of D2.

P.S Vote Chibo

This post does not sit well with me at all. Vote for great justice? The town have the greatest power of all? Frankly, I think the doc has a powerful role as well since he can protect the others he has. The mafia doctor has a much better chance of saving one of his scum buddies should a NK happen on one of the mafia.

This whole cheerleading thing against Chibo is very interesting...

The other thing that I didn't mention yesterday in my exchange with Civil Scum was that having a huge suspicion list sets you up to be a perfect NK since it would be tough to narrow it down who might have wanted him dead. I didn't mention it yesterday because if Civil Scum was town it would set him up as suspicious since he was still alive after my comment (WIFOM, I suppose). Had he survived the night I would have retracted my comments about him being town.

I was pretty sure we had one SK yesterday and I'm now pretty sure we still have another scum guy left. We should lynch SK because he is probably unkillable (1 time, perhaps).

First, how were you pretty sure there was a SK yesterday, prior to any NK activities? What lead you to that conclusion. Second, why would you assume the SK is unkillable?

Something to mull over, but right now I'm leaning towards TheButtonmen or Humble Poirot as my top lynch candidates right now. Their ponderings make zero sense to me.

xvart.

[A_Squirrel]

I would also disagree with the idea that the sk is randomly killing--the sk needs to live till endgame so I would imagine he would try not to stand out to prevent NKs and target strong/important players to weaken town.

So you agree that the SK is not randomly killing, but your suggestion is not about the SK killing pattern, but about day play. If the SK is not randomly killing, what do we base the kills off of when analyzing them?

Well, I did suggest that SK would target strong protown players for their NK. I didn't explicitly say that SK may also target those who had suspicions on them, but that just seems like a given to me. It would be interesting to me if the SK really were just randomly killing, as they have a certain amount of control over the game via that kill which would be wasted by randomly choosing targets (though it would screw up kill analysis).

[ChiboSempai]

Got back from my vacation sort of thing last night, at work now. Will read and post within an hour or two, depending on how busy it is here.

[Humble Poirot]

Xvart. I just figured based on what I read from the mod. He doesn't look very experienced and new mods usually make swingy setups with SKs and mafia.

I mean, look at it. Vig + SK + Mafia. If we had mislynched and those 3 killed town. we could very well be 5 town + SK + 3 mafia.

If you want to find a reason for the SK kill. Read this:

Judging by who died though, it's extremely likely that either the mafia or sk (if there is one) killed Furry and not the Vig. At least, it would be really stupid for a Vig to do so -_-
Since Furry just joined and didn't have time to voice his opinions, it was smart for whoever killed him to keep the town quiet.

That is an SK revealing his plan as if it was a theory.

There's really nothing you can take about who killed who in terms of flavor. There is nothing saying that a SK has to slice or scum has to shoot. It could be the other way around.

This is just an attempt to dim the truth. SK usually uses the knife.

This whole cheerleading thing against Chibo is very interesting...

lol. If you can't see the obvious... Complete a phrase.

Also, About Civil's list. He wouldnt buss hito and Aran so hito is obvtown. Tommy is dead. Furry is dead. His other suspect was me. It should give you a bit to think unless you think he was bussing me too. But you'll probably scream WIFOM and not see the truth before your eyes.

For now... Just lynch ChiboSempai. If he is town. You can pursue me tomorrow. Our ponderings make zero sense because you never tried to understand them or even read the game. Read people in ISO.

I'm probably going to be unable to post for a couple of days. If I am here, I will post at least "Im here" to let you know. If not, that means Im away from internet. Thanks.

[Boxman]

Prodding 5cvm and Evilgorrilaz.

Vote Count 2 of Day 2

ChiboSempai (3) - TheButtonmen, Humble Poirot, hitogoroshi
xvart (1) - A_Squirrel

Not Voting (4) - Evilgorrilaz, xvart, 5cvm, ChiboSempai

Votes to Lynch: 5
Deadline: January 26, 2010, 8 PM CST

[Humble Poirot]

Ok. I'm here and waiting for your answers. No V/LA needed.

while we are at it...

I'd like to know why button doesn't think there's a third scum... How improbable do you think it is? Have you never seen games with 3 scum + SK?

Anyway... We will know for sure after we lynch the SK but I want to know what people think about it.

also... Xvart said Button and me were scummy because we made no sense... yet, he didnt vote. Why?

[ChiboSempai]

Sorry I've been so inactive lately, I was at an international Smash tourney (Pound 4) from Friday - Monday. I thought I would be able to be online for a lot of it but I was wrong. I started back up work on Tuesday and was swamped with work until yesterday and I had a night class yesterday with homework ontop of everything, so I'm finally free again with everything.

Reading through everything again and thinking about it more, I don't like EG's play atm. I see that he hasn't posted in quite a while, and one of his last posts was wondering if we should 100% focus on just an SK and forget about the mafia thinking there weren't anymore. That + coasting together gives a perfect scum read, he tries to convince us to not look for him + lies low anyway to keep safe.

I would also like to hear from him again soon and start posting.

Vote: EvilGorrilaz

Essentially when it comes down to it though, besides finding links to a specific role (like what I just did for EG), mafia hunting and sk hunting are similar. We're both trying to uncover players that don't want to be killed that are against the town.

As for the whole are we at Lylo kind of thing, it's really situation. There would have to be another scum, not lynch scum or sk and have the scum and sk both nail a townie, and have a vig mislynch all together i believe, though I didn't do the calculations.

As for "unveiling my plan" as Poirot suggested, I'm mearly just trying to find out facts about the game. If we want to get rid of the SK and determine that the SK was the one that killed Furry, we can try to determine connections between someone + Furry (connections as in a reason to kill not meaning like as an ally per se), since in games I've played (especially some with some real bastard mods), I've practically been trained not to pay attention to favor hence my comment on that.

[TheButtonmen]

Come on people, Look at Chibo's posts, stop lurking and vote him!

[ChiboSempai]

What is the deal with the hardcore tunneling? Not to mention the point that you're trying to quickly end the day before other discussion.