I did not dodge the question.Sajin wrote:You completely dodged the point of my question.Yosarian2 wrote:Sajin wrote:What is the reasoning for this?scotmany12 wrote:EBWOP: Of course no two people should protect the same person.
@Yossiran- a vengeful would kill a protown person 66 percent of the time? Uh....
1- You brought up doctors protections as a reason to not have one, and then you do not factor them in when your talking about it again.
You do not consider Vig kills nor the fact that 2 kills happening on the same night (when town knows its about to happen too!) increases chances for a successful protection as well.
Your clearly using the facts that benefit the one small point your trying to make at that particular moment. I am debating whether or not I should find this a scum tell for you or if it is just shrewd arguing. Care to enlighten me?
66% of the time just meant that there was a 1/3 chance that the vengeful scum would be the last scum person left, and therefore wouldn't get a kill.
It's not really that likely that he gets either vigged or doc protected; the odds of a doc or weak doc stopping any given kill is quite small (There has to be a doc who's still alive at that point, the scum has to not target the doc, and then if there's, say, 9 people left it's still just a 1/8 chance) and the idea of counting on a vig that might not even exist to kill one specific scum before we lynch that scum sounds like a really bad idea to me. But you're right, there is a chance he tries to kill and fails, or gets vigged, and that actually lowers the odds a bit. (not much, IMHO, but a bit)
Of course, there's also a chance he intentionally gets himself lynched at a key moment, doing a "jester strike" to get himself lynched instead of a scumbuddy or in lynch or lose, which then raises the odds again.
I'm really not sure why we're still arguing about this, considering that everyone already agreed that giving the scum vengeful was a bad idea and we already made our decision. Also, I'm not sure why you're grilling me on this when I've already explained all of this in exhausting detail back when we actually WERE making this decision. If you thought vengeful was a good idea, you should have made that argument BEFORE we picked the power roles, not now.
Let me restate it so you do not do so again:
I am accusing you of manipulating the facts in order to get the town to vote a certain role.
66% is a rough estimate of how often I'd expect the vengeful to kill someone. There are some factors that bring it slightly lower (the small chance of a doc protection, the small chance of a vig) and some factors that bring it slightly higher (the increased chance of the vengeful being bussed, or getting himself lynched).
I think it comes out to about 66%, probably a little higher actually, since I think the latter factors would be more likely to come into play then the former factors, but there's no real way to calcualate any of it. In any case that was just a rough measure, a shorthand, because I didn't really feel like arguing about it when it's no longer relevent to anything and everyone has already agreed that I am right and vengeful would have been a bad role.
Of course I have. And I just explained that. The answer is: it makes very little difference. Which I would have been glad to explain, IF YOU HAD ARGUED THIS BACK WHEN IT MATTERED.The above shows that you thought town power roles could mitigate the effect a vengeful would have.
Do you think I'm wrong here? Do you think we should have picked vengeful? Or are you just screwing around with irrelevent details to try to invent a reason to make me look bad?
Of course I disagree.I am saying that your changing your arguments about the potential effects of roles to benefit your stance. Do you agree or disagree?
When trying to figure out how much damage an extra scum kill will do, you can basically just ignore the chance of a doc protection, because the odds of any doc stopping any one kill is pretty bloody low. A doc will very rarely prevent ANY kill in ANY game, let alone one specific kill.
And again, I was glad to explain that when you brought up the detail. I didn't really think I needed to go into all that all over again.
Only scum would want the scum to have a vengful role. Farside seemed to realize this pretty early in the day, and I think she's town. I think it's interesting that you still have not, no matter how many times I've explained it.Additionally:
Why should we not use that discussion now? Its all a mute point? No. I find your manipulation of the role choice scummy sir. You say everyone was against the vengeful? I was arguing pro vengeful in almost every post.Yos wrote:I'm really not sure why we're still arguing about this, considering that everyone already agreed that giving the scum vengeful was a bad idea and we already made our decision. Also, I'm not sure why you're grilling me on this when I've already explained all of this in exhausting detail back when we actually WERE making this decision. If you thought vengeful was a good idea, you should have made that argument BEFORE we picked the power roles, not now.
? If so that is stupid because I have asked people things and not given an answer. Asking the whole town somthing does not always included the asker. Such as what do you think of player x's vote on player y? this is not use3d to share your own idea of the situation, but to get a feel of what everyone else thinks. So now where left with not explaining stuff to town, if you really wanted to vote on that then why not vote me? This is the only post where I have made comments like this. And why din't you vote malscp he didn't answer much in d0, and didn't explain much to the town. 
