Open 184: Friends and Enemies Mafia (Over)

[Ojanen]

Budja, have you played with Kise before?

[farside22]

oj and sc why do you think kise is scum?
I currently am not seeing a clear case there.

[Budja]

@Ojanen, no I have not played with Kise.

@SC, I've just be skimming all over the place trying to "get into" the game. I've looked at Kise in ISO and over the last couple of pages and nothing is ringing alarm bells.

[SerialClergyman]

I gtg to work, but should be able to answer soon. In the meantime, why would you vote someone and often list them in your top suspects if you didn't undersatnd why they were scummy?

[SerialClergyman]

And Budja, that's cool mate, fair enough.

[SerialClergyman]

M'okay, so Kise being scum:

Firstly, Kittymo's replace in scumlist was the very first thing that gave me a red flag on the player slot. She lists mainly people in current discussion, and has Neto as her top scumsuspect JUST BEFORE he was lynched and flipped scum. Either she's a sheep, or she's scum, in my opinion. That just didn't look like a real scumlist to me. In fact, now we have some flips, lets bring it up again:

NEUTRAL
SerialClergyman
Kikuchiyo
Saberwolf
Shotty to the Body
Netopalis
SCUM

So out of that list, she has 4 townies and one scum player, with the scum player listed as the most suspicious and the one who was at l-1 and was essentially hammered by the time she posted.

Also - Neto didn't have many friends who were campaigning against his lynch or deflecting suspicion onto anyone else. I get the feeling from his posts that he was pretty alone. Of those who spoke out against the lynch, Hewitt and farside. I don't think they are scum together, farside would have to be pulling off a pretty epic bus. We know that Shotty was a townie. I'm pretty happy thinking Hewitt is scum, but there also needs to be another and the Kitty slot describes what I think the scum's behaviour was at that time. Also, Neto and Hewitt don't wagon Yarmond, with Hewitt even going so far as to say that it would likely hit town.

Then Kise comes in at the START of D2 to say he's around and yet says NOTHING throughout the entirety of the day. We have kiku, shotty, ojanen and me all posting wall posts at each other, so there was no need for kise to come in and say something. It is the same for Hewitt, but apparantly he flaked. Either way, I'm happy about Ojanen being town, and those massive walls are exactly what scum are looking for. We didn't have any content from scum so we weren't able to find them. If Kise is town, I'm sure he would have got involved in those discussions in some way - look how active he is today?

Kise's activity is worth a paragraph on its own - it has ramped up remarkedly since he started getting some attention. He showed no interest in finding scum D2, but plenty of interest in saving his butt D3.

Finally, his attacks have all been mediocre. He attacked me both because I've been his biggest accusor throughout the game and because I've been attacked constnatly due to CSL-baggage. When he gave his arguments, there was nothing more concrete than continuing to mention CSL and invoking Albert. Thigns like:

SerialClergyman wrote:
Kise NEEDS to be grilled tomorrow no matter what the shotty flip.

having three separate people flake is much more scummier than one, and it's been for two copmlete days AND the content that we've had has been shocking.

My predecessors look like George Clooney compared to CSL. Get real. Don't think I haven't noticed you're riding my back due to lurking.

Wow, SC. So you've already made up in your mind that I'm scum? Oh my goodness... u suck.

Kill me tonight if you want a better chance of surviving tomorrow. I iso'd CSL for shits and giggles and he's as good as claimed scum. Then Albert psychology makes you admit to being partners with Neto. How that was passed off today, I don't know. It won't be overlooked tomorrow.

Ok, ok - I know it's unfair to just cherry pick the worst attacks, but honestly, he started off full of them. His play has gotten better, but it doesn't excuse the fact that he actually brought up my suggesting a policy lynch of Hewitt for quoting all of Albert's posts as a point against me!

But all that stuff is just rationalising the pattern in my opinion. Looking at the slots that work as scum given the way this game has gone - he's defintiely one of them. The Neto lynch, the walls on D2, the difficulty getting him lynched D3 - all this stuff just points to him scum.

Unfortunately, Ellibereth, DLA AND Budja have town reads on Kise. The people I think are most likely town, farside and Ojanen, both have scum reads, although farside has been pushing for a hewitt lynch over a Kise lynch. And of course, Scigatt has flaked.

So practically, I'm not sure how we can achieve a Kise lynch, even though apparantly everyone barring Scigatt has voted him at least once today ><

I wouldn't mind anyone telling me why they think he's likely to be town..

[Ellibereth]

So out of that list, she has 4 townies and one scum player,

I dun get it. Slip?

[Ellibereth]

Serial, IIRC Kise's overall activity in the D2 time period was pretty slow in all his games. I'll go check again on that.

[SerialClergyman]

What do you mean? Of the list that kittymo posts, there's 4 townies and Neto the scum, and Neto is listed as most scummy.

As for his activity, I know it comes and goes but he had ZERO content on D2.

Also -

I wouldn't mind anyone telling me why they think he's likely to be town..

[Ellibereth]

Why do you have saber listed as town? You bother to say most likely town or town read elsewhere, but you've outright declared Saber a townie twice. Slip?

Vote: SC

[SerialClergyman]

I 100% believe Saber/Scigattt to be a townie.

[Ellibereth]

The people I think are most likely town, farside and Ojanen

[SerialClergyman]

And of course, Scigatt has flaked.

[Ellibereth]

Meh, that doesn't look like it was part of the previous sentence.
You're saying you have 3 people here at 100% town right now?

[SerialClergyman]

How? It has the word 'AND' starting it ><

No, Scigatt is higher than either Ojanen or farside. I'd say Ojanen 95% town and farside 75%.

[Ellibereth]

How? It has the word 'AND' starting it ><

No, Scigatt is higher than either Ojanen or farside. I'd say Ojanen 95% town and farside 75%.

What motivation would saber have had to compile the statistics at the beginning of game, especially given his recent "bet" town meta?
Is your 100% town read based on meta, gut, or what?

Out of curiosity, what are your percentages for everyone else?

[SerialClergyman]

Ugh, I hate giving percentages for everyone. If you have a specific person you'd like, let me know. I'm already thinking 75% was a bit harsh for farside and 95% was a bit generous for Ojanen.

The saber read is part gut, part voting/suspicion analysis.

I also believe you haven't answered:

I wouldn't mind anyone telling me why they think he's likely to be town..

[Ellibereth]

gutgutgut
I'm just really not getting scumvibes right now. Might reread later.
IMO you're way overconfident about Saber.

[SerialClergyman]

I tend to have good town reads. You're not alone, it's my major difference with Ojanen and a few people have mentioned it, but that's my position. It's also one of practicality, given a replacement is not forthcoming and I think lynching an empty slot is not optimal play.

I think you, and everyone else who has that town read on Kise, could expand on that please.

What's your feeling on Hewitt/Budja, Elli?

[SerialClergyman]

Ojanen, I just saw your question. I think it was because I was so happy that I wasn't getting lynched and one of my suspects was. That was my entire goal replacing into this game, trying to survive the first day and get someone who was suspicious lynched.

[Budja]

Eh, Kise is null. The big point against him is his lurky slot (which is bad), but I am honestly not feeling scum from those other comments.

I can't see myself voting Elli or DLA (save something really drastic, like claiming scum ).
I'm not feeling farside/Scigatt either.
Oj, I must look into more. Having trouble reading her.
I would be fine with SC (something just feels off there, yeah gut I know .), with Kise as a possible fallback (simply for the lurk slot).

vote: SC

[SerialClergyman]

Before I comment further - Budja, how much of the thread have you read now?

[farside22]

so many comments I want to make right now.
first:

Serial wrote:

So out of that list, she has 4 townies and one scum player

I read this as a slip too. He is saying saber is a townie without a flip that seems scummy to me.
Next even though I pointed out another game that kitty stated computer issues SC ignores this fact in his write up.

Question to SC: If budja is not scum in your mind and he is voting you then what does that say of your theory?

I have my own thoughts about budja but I want to see a bit more interaction from him before I do a full comment.

[SerialClergyman]

If it was really a slip, then I would be scum, and so therefore would have said 2 scum and 3 townies?

But whatever, not much I can say about it. I am sure Scigatt is town, I consider him a townie.

I know that kitty stated computer issues, I didn't say that the day 1 absence was DELIBERATE, I said it was indicative of the situation. Neto had Hewitt defending him, but noone else. Thus it makes sense that the scum who wasn't defending him

wasn't there.

I'm sure Kitty DID have computer issues - but the fact remain there's a scum voice missing on D1, and I think that missing voice belonged to Kitty.

I never said that hewitt couldn't be scum, just that I wasn't sure with Kise pushing him. Now he's replaced in and had his say, it actually points me right back to Kise/Hewitt, given his reluctance to vote for Kise even when it's the competing wagon. Instead he's gone for SC with zero reasons and I suspect a relatively small amount of the thread read. (For example, look at the difference between Elli and Ojanen's cases on Neto on D1, and look which one of the two he declares town?)

I'm disappointed that you comment on nothing on the case on Kiseother than what relates to me (did you agree with any of it? Did it point out some of Kise's scumminess?), and would ask you again why you needed it given you've voted him and regularly list him in your suspects.

[farside22]

You have to remember SC I think you and budja scum together. I find his vote against you most entertaining at the moment as it was for little to no reason.
You did miss something about kitty in your write up. I'm a bit surprised you didn't mention it and now I feel you may be getting a bit sloopy and not as through as I would expect you to be.

Note about kitty:
First post she makes is saying she it reading along but doesn't know who or if she is replacing.
Second post: She need to read things before posting more thoughts on people
3rd and last post is those she suspects scum and nothing else.

Me paranoid townie thinks: Why is she reading along but in her second post unable to state what her thoughts are in the second post once her role received. IE: See stalling scum

Now why would you SC miss this point in your write up of kise/kitty?