Open 184: Friends and Enemies Mafia (Over)

[SerialClergyman]

Farside - I wasn't giving you those changes in suspicion to say you're scum, I didn't expect you to go and confirm them. I was saying that no, you haven't had a consistent and clear viewpoint of the game, you've actually changed your mind a LOT.

Fair enough about the 24h thing.

I actually think it's specifically NOT easy to point to Kise scum exactly for that reason. I can't go through and post a huge case (not my style anyway really I suppose) but I don't have the 'evidence' you guys do for other cases. He's just been a non-event. All I can do is point to patterns of behaviour, which are less than convincing.

I get that you link the budja/shotty thing together but again, I think that's a bit unreasonable. we all change our mind, we all have second choices. I also had elli as scum when I replaced in and now I'm pretty sure he's town. I can't stop you if you want to draw that parrallel but you know, *shrug*. Would you prefer me to not mention my second choices?

And for town reads, we fundamentally disagree on that, but you know, there you go. I think if you get a strong town-read-on-each-ther group it makes it almost impossibly difficult for scum. They need to manufacture mislynches out of a much smaller pool and are restricted in the NK choices they have because they need to cut down on the group.

[Ojanen]

Ojanen, who is Kise's scumpartner?

You're gonna hate this, but I haven't given up on the thought of Scigatt. Abbreviation's not clear.
Failing that, it's bloody hard. DLA? I dunno. Noone feels like scum .

[farside22]

I felt no reason to hide or ignore your opionion about my actions today SC.
I think trying to figure out who is scum with kise is really difficult.
There is the possible Budja connection I noted early in the game with the yarmond vote and seeing either neto nor Hewitt sticking their neck out to vote him. Hewitt talked about yarmond most likely town which gives me a sick feeling in the pit of my stomache.
Saber voted for yarmond during that and later jumped on the neto wagon. I don't recall saber as scum so if anyone knows if he is big on bussing his scum parnters this would help.
I can see DLA scum with kise for DLA calling him a bored townie and just giving everything he said a free pass.

[Ellibereth]

Through all of Saber's games, not once do I seem him voting for his scumbuddy. Anywhere. (Unless I'm missing something).

I skimmed through the links that Oj provided. I didn't check whether those games were played before or during the whole "bet" thing though.
The stats at the beginning still give me a bad feeling...

[Kise]

I don't speak out on town reads ever since an earlier Newbie game where I put too much faith on a player not being scum. He killed me and everyone took my belief as fact and he would have survived/won the game had it not been mod-abandoned. I'm turned off by town-list, even though most of us were newbs. Giving town-cred is something I never jump up to do, and I've said that it's a nagging feeling that DLA is town and that the scum lies within Budja, you and/or OJ.

The scum team? Farside kept saying I had the votecounts wrong and I thought she was trying to discredit the reasons I was suspecting hewitt. I thought of them as a scum-team but I guess she's realized hewitt was in fact at L-1 when Neto avoided hammering and voted for Elli. I've also said I think the team could be you [SC] and Ojajen despite an impressive case against Neto. I don't know the history of you two so of course I'm going to question it until I fully understand the relationship. Even so, as many friends as I've made and played with on-site, I myself never do any co-op playing. If anything, I feel like I can read a friend better if I know how they play as town and scum.

Comparing how you & OJ interact to how the rest of us interact with each other gives me the impression that you & OJ trust each other's opinions and viewpoints in this game. Hewitt and Neto barely interacted directly, yet there is a connection with them based on what farside and I have gone over.

It could still easily be you [SC] and Budja which was my earlier/first suspicion when I read day 1. Did you say today's phase is when you began suspecting hewitt/Budja?

[SerialClergyman]

Look, Scigatt flaked, we're waiting on a replacement, but I have a town read on saber and we're not going to lynch someone who isn't here and isn't a main suspect. Let's notget distracted here by his posts that could have been an issue for any of the last 60 pages but we're importnat enough.

[SerialClergyman]

Yes Kise, last night I was thinking about kiku/shotty and it made sense to me that it was two low-contributors, hence you and hewitt. After I went back on Hewitt, I found he was against the Neto lynch until after the hammer and I just wasn't impressed with his play. So yes, I didn't really suspect/notice him yesterday.

[Kise]

Alright... so.. I'm gonna log off until after midnight to avoid being ninja'd more.. I'll respond to everything in one neat post.

[farside22]

I get that you link the budja/shotty thing together but again, I think that's a bit unreasonable. we all change our mind, we all have second choices. I also had elli as scum when I replaced in and now I'm pretty sure he's town. I can't stop you if you want to draw that parrallel but you know, *shrug*. Would you prefer me to not mention my second choices?

Yes we all have second choices but when a player pushes a case on someone that is town over someone that is scum I'm going to sit there and go hmmm.

[SerialClergyman]

Sure. But you also would have linked me to shotty if he had flipped town - most people seems keen to. It's one of those difficult situations where even though I list neto amongst my suspects, because he wasn't FIRST on the list it's used against me as much or more than you, kise and hewitt who weren't on his wagon or were campaigning against his lynch.

I feel like I keep getting linked to my suspects, not my town reads, which is bitter sweet. But I doubt I'd act much differently in your situaion, farside.

[SerialClergyman]

EBWOP: Sure. But you also would have linked me to shotty if he had flipped

town

scum - most people seemed keen to.

[farside22]

Sure. But you also would have linked me to shotty if he had flipped town - most people seems keen to. It's one of those difficult situations where even though I list neto amongst my suspects, because he wasn't FIRST on the list it's used against me as much or more than you, kise and hewitt who weren't on his wagon or were campaigning against his lynch.

I feel like I keep getting linked to my suspects, not my town reads, which is bitter sweet. But I doubt I'd act much differently in your situaion, farside.

I stated pretty early today about looking more at those not on the neto wagon and one being scum and even knowing that I was not on the wagon against neto but knowing my alignment I felt a 50/50 chance of finding scum >then trying to find someone on the neto wagon that may have bussed his scum partner. Who knows maybe neither scum was on the Neto wagon and both kise and budja are both scum.
However Kise wasn't here and kitty clearly had internet issues. Blaming kise for not being on the vote is scummy based on just that reasoning.
Looking at hewitt and his response not as scum but hypocrital towards me.
So either I'm scum looking to target someone not on the BW vote or I'm town that missed out on the vote.
Now watch everyone who had a town read on me goes oh shit and starts being paranoid now.

[farside22]

EBWOP: Sure. But you also would have linked me to shotty if he had flipped

town

scum - most people seemed keen to.

If if's were skipss and I had a million dollars would this matter?
It's a lot of what if that leads to WIFOM and has no baring on my logic here. Your asking a hypothecial question that doesn't matter to my current theory.

[SerialClergyman]

It's not as irrelevent as you're making it out to be. If you were confident that my pushing of Shotty was weak enough to be scum bussing, it's not reasonable to then say it was strong enough to be scum pushing a townie. It might not be a concern to you, but I think drawing connections from one player to another which work

no matter what that player flips

is a scumtell, or at least a bad case of confirmation bias.

But now that you've explained your thinking re: people on the wagon, I'm more into where you're coming from. I don't have the luxury of knowing you are town, but if you were I could appreciate that the thought of picking off those last two on the wagon and having a good chance of success with either is a good option. And to be fair, most of your votes and pushes have been against others on the wagon, so I can't overly complain.

And you can blame Kise despite the connection issues. That's because you look at the patterns in the voting. Neto died without much of a struggle, that leads me to think that his partners were quiet and not working to deflect criticism, which makes me look at the quiet people - no matter WHY they were quiet. That's a perfectly reasonable way to approach looking at Kise-scum that isn't unfair, I think.

[farside22]

It's not as irrelevent as you're making it out to be. If you were confident that my pushing of Shotty was weak enough to be scum bussing, it's not reasonable to then say it was strong enough to be scum pushing a townie. It might not be a concern to you, but I think drawing connections from one player to another which work

no matter what that player flips

is a scumtell, or at least a bad case of confirmation bias.

But now that you've explained your thinking re: people on the wagon, I'm more into where you're coming from. I don't have the luxury of knowing you are town, but if you were I could appreciate that the thought of picking off those last two on the wagon and having a good chance of success with either is a good option. And to be fair, most of your votes and pushes have been against others on the wagon, so I can't overly complain.

And you can blame Kise despite the connection issues. That's because you look at the patterns in the voting. Neto died without much of a struggle, that leads me to think that his partners were quiet and not working to deflect criticism, which makes me look at the quiet people - no matter WHY they were quiet. That's a perfectly reasonable way to approach looking at Kise-scum that isn't unfair, I think.

Oh I get it. I realized my mind had a different thought.
Okay see if shotty flipped scum would I be thinking you scum bussing. I think so based on but this was based more on shotty saying you were more town then DLA then scum bussing. Remember I said day 2 seeing a connection between you and shotty based on his comments about CSL day 1.
My theory is more about not just day 1 but what today could bring.
IE: if budja were to flip scum I would reexamine exactly this point again or I have this hear for the town to ponder that possibility if I'm killed tonight. Either way it's information. It's a reminder and a thought to give to others and keep in mind.
Now if kise flips scum this case is mute as I really can't see a kise/SC connection at all.

[SerialClergyman]

Ah ok, that makes much more sense. If you're seeing connections for different reasons then it's much more reasonable than using the same piece of information to come to different conclusions.

I think we have enough information to come to the scum team if we analyse out the connections - why I've been giving you a hard time is not so much because i htink you're scum but because kise-farside is a possibility, especially now that you're quite strongly preferring Hewitt.

This is why Ojanen rightly predicted I don't like that she isn't thinking about scum teams or partners for Hewitt. If we just lynch a few scummy-looking people I think it's sort of pot luck from here on out, but if we look at where the scum team is, and analyse how they've impacted the game, we can solve this.

[Kise]

Here's the large theme, OJ:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12352

Kise, if you were lynched and flip town I don't really want to line up lynches and telegraph my next options. It's a definite possibility.

Um, what would happen with your view of hewittscum?

But those bad feelings still linger?

Yeeeeees. Why do you ask?

You're uncomfortable with public trust, so... I should stick to it no matter what and not give a possibility for reevaluation?
This makes zero sense, it's in fact a contradiction.

There are 2 goons, 1 mason, and 5 vanilla townies left. The VT's don't know who's town. The mason has no one to talk to. The goons will be the only two working together in some way to get this day how they want it. So with 2 goons confirmed to each other and 6 town who don't know each other, do you now see why I have questioned the way you're riding beside SC often?

Also I don't see your reason to call it only towards me and serial, you don't seem to have a problem with my other loony townreads.

Your townreads shouldn't be loony if you really believe in them.

You're going rounds and rounds with the argument of the 2 of us, but noone has ever spoke about it eliminating anything, you're the one constantly bringing it up, and the reasons to pair us are weak.

It's weird that you don't suspect/vote me until SC does. Of course this is going to stick out to me because you're picking sides essentially.

Also, if we're both scum again, why on earth are you voting Budja?

Well harro:?: You and SC are not my only suspects.

You said it was suspicious we were both pestering you for content. I say it's undisputably pro-town to pester content from a near blank slot.

Or scum going for easy pickings because they know the blank spot won't bark back. Probably would have turned into a lurker-lynch down the road (not that I disagree with lynching lurkers before lylo).

none of your reads ringing true at all springs you to the scummiest person alive.

So because you have town reads on hewitt and SC, etc., mine is wrong?
--->
http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... st_Fallacy

Noone feels like scum .

I think if you get a strong town-read-on-each-ther group it makes it almost impossibly difficult for scum. They need to manufacture mislynches out of a much smaller pool and are restricted in the NK choices they have because they need to cut down on the group.

Do you think it's unfair for me to believe scum could be among this trusted group?

OJ, during day 1, what was it that made you think your vote on Neto put him at L-1?

[Kise]

Ellibereth?

Kise's on!

PLEASE TAKE THE WONDERFUL HAMMER WE'RE GIVING AWAY!!!!

I didn't even deliver my thoughts on the game so far and this came across to me as pressure. As a matter of fact, you were pestering me at the end of day 2 to post content. If you were fine with me hammering Shotty day 2 with no delay, then why did you later hesitate to hammer and insist that everyone should wait for me to post?

[DarkLightA]

The Twentythird Votecount: One More?

Budja (1): Elli
Kise (3): Ojanen, Serial, DLA

Not Voting (5): Farside, Budja, Scigatt, Kise,

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline is the 23th at 23:59!

I am currently seeking replacement for Scigatt...

Pretty sure it is

Right now I'm thinking Scigatt / SC. But not both at once.

Vote: SC

[DarkLightA]

Sorry @ the weird quote. I was going to say that I thought that was last day's

[DarkLightA]

Sorry @ the weird quote. I was going to say that I thought that was last day's

The DL that was.

[farside22]

Sorry @ the weird quote. I was going to say that I thought that was last day's

The DL that was.

I wish there was a vig in this game

[Ellibereth]

Ellibereth?

Kise's on!

PLEASE TAKE THE WONDERFUL HAMMER WE'RE GIVING AWAY!!!!

I didn't even deliver my thoughts on the game so far and this came across to me as pressure. As a matter of fact, you were pestering me at the end of day 2 to post content. If you were fine with me hammering Shotty day 2 with no delay, then why did you later hesitate to hammer and insist that everyone should wait for me to post?

Meh, cause I'm a lousy hypocrite who doesn't always think when I post. IIRC someone mentioned lurker slots needing content after i made that post and I unvoted.

[farside22]

DLA why did you vote for kise when you said you believe him to be bored town?

[Ojanen]

DLA, you sadden me.
That hop was suspicious, where did it come from?
(Content later.)