Mini 885 - Boom, Game Gutshot/Abandoned by Mod!

[5cvm]

Hey, nice work, I'm impressed with that scum kill on Civil Scum.

I'm betting on ChiboSempai or Xvart for scum, and betting pretty darn heavily on hitogoroshi being the SK.

[ChiboSempai]

It's the first time you called me out, mind telling me what has changed?

Got a solid reason for the three of us at all?

[hitogoroshi]

This is not the result of an exhaustive analysis, but we really do need to post content and get the ball rolling.

For starters, I'm going to use one metric: scum dislike commenting on their scumbuddies. I have no idea how true this is for Civil Scum, but let's assume it is and see where it takes us.

There are eight candidates for Civil's scumbuddy. He sparred extremely viciously with xvart, humble, and I. That leaves Chibo, Button, 5cvm, Squirrel, and EG. Of those, I'm tentatively willing to clear Button because I doubt his crusade against Aranfan was a bus. (I'm not calling him confirmed town forever, obviously, but for the purpose of this exercise it's enough.)

Civil-5cvm

As much as it kills me to say this, I wouldn't expect 5cvm to be scum with Civil. Civil's last few posts really struck me as "trying to reconcile with hito and set up a 5cvm policy mis-lynch tomorrow." I highly doubt 5cvm is scum at this point, though I wouldn't be at all surprised to hear he's a SK.

Civil-Chibo

Civil said very little about Chibo. Never once gave a read on whether he seemed town or scum. Chibo's a pretty strong candidate for scumbuddy via this analysis.

Civil-Squirrel

Same as Chibo. Never commented whether he thought Squirrel was town or scum.

Civil-Gorillaz

Civil mentions Gorillaz a lot more. His attacks on xvart also serve as a sort of defense of Gorillaz. By this theory it makes those two as scumbuddies unlikely, however, I offer that point if someone else is more keen to look for defenders.

So by looking at Civil, we get Squirrel and Chibo as the most likely scumbuddies.

Let's look at what THOSE players said about ARAN, the other scum:

Chibo-Aran

I really really doubt Chibo's campaign on Aran was a bus, same reasons as button.

Squirrel-Aran

Squirrel defended Aran fairly explicitly while still voicing some token suspicion.

And a clincher:

Squirrel-Civil

Never says a word to him besides 'don't forget hito joined that bs dichotomy theory against seregil.'

I'll admit I'm not too sure Squirrel would have been as vocal as he was for Aran's survival if they were scumbuddies, but for now I'm liking squirrel-scum. We'll see if that holds up after a closer dissection of Civil (I now need to see if any of his attacks look like busses) but for now:

vote: a_squirrel

[Evilgorrilaz]

Interesting.

2 mafia are dead and there seems to be an SK. Does that mean we killed all the mafia, and now are looking for the SK?

[hitogoroshi]

EG - it's possible. My last post was assuming there are 3 mafia as well as the SK. This is partially the streetlight fallacy I'll admit (I'm looking for a lynch candidate where they'd be easy to find, not where they most likely are) because there will be associative tells for the mafia and not for the SK. The fact is we're in a really good spot if it's just the SK left and so it's better to assume there is a third scum left and look for them - because if there is just an SK left, we can mislynch, misvig, and still have five players looking for one SK tomorrow. So personally I'm inclined to look for associative, third-scum tells today. If there are only two kills tonight, then we can probably stop looking for associative tells because it's almost certainly just the SK left.

[Evilgorrilaz]

2 Kills doesn't mean that there isn't Mafia. Assuming that mafia had a doctor, it could be feasible that town also has a doctor and someone is protected (although I guess the death scene would reveal a lot). Maybe 1-shot vig? I doubt that though.

[Evilgorrilaz]

EBWOP
I meant to say that since mafia had a doctor.

[ChiboSempai]

I really don't like how you handled the entire analysis you did. While it was great to look for connections, you auto-cleared too many people for seemingly bias reasons (like you cleared one person for one reason but not another with the same reasoning).

Example, "Of those, I'm tentatively willing to clear Button because I doubt his crusade against Aranfan was a bus."

You even said yourself later in your Chibo-Aran part "I really really doubt Chibo's campaign on Aran was a bus, same reasons as button."

I don't like how your trying to portray me in a negative light (by saying how I was suspiciously scum because of my connection, or lack there of, with civil.

Go back and re-read Day 1 if you want, I pointed out every single scumtell on Aranfan as soon as I saw them (for anyone really but Aranfan by far acted the scummiest Day 1). I also consistently voted for him nearly the entire day. There were one or two times I switched my vote to someone else but soon went right back to Aranfan not wanting to drop my original case, which we can now see is valid.

You also fail to take about humble, xvart, and YOURSELF because you guys tussled with civil a bit. Is this enough to warrant you off of a scum analysis? I don't think so.

If you're going to do an analysis like that, you've got to everyone or no one or else it's just going to make you look scummy.

[A_Squirrel]

Heh, interesting. You(Hito) took it in a different direction than I did.

Assumption:scum in our game, for whatever reason (inexperience, mistakes, etc.), will have created connections between them. For this, I'm focusing more on Aran and Seregil as they fit this profile more (and I really don't want to go through Civil's ISO).

Aranfan:

Aran's ISO 2, 8 (3 and 5 indirectly deal with this as well) are defenses of xvart against 5cvm's early game antics. As he points out, 5cvm's claims are pretty much bs, and yet I can't help but wonder why Aran points this out in ISO 8 again. It seems like he's trying to hammer this home. Now that we know Aran was scum, this may have just been Aran protecting a buddy. Aran also defends xvart against Civil's stuff, and this is before he was pretty much confirmed as the lynch for the day. I have the impression that Aran mentions xvart a lot as well, but I'll need to look at that as my notes are not comprehensive.

I also feel I must side with Xvert. The main argument against him seems to be bare assertion by 5cvm.

Hardly, you simply declared him to be not a friend.

I agree with most of what xvart says, we shouldn't be satisfied with second place. Also, the case on him seems to be based on a blind assertion from 5cvm, hardly a reliable source.

Since then both xvart and I have asked him to say what he thinks the method to 5cvm's madness is, and we have gotten this response:

Not liking "Civil's" Ad Hominems on xvart. The reason xvart doesn't like you Civil, is that you are suspicious of both those arguing for and those arguing against 5cvm's lynch.

You are, however, using it to denigrate xvart and erode his credibility.

Admittedly, the last two are interesting in that Aran is defending xvart against Civil which sort of throw a wrench into things. I'm not entirely sure why a close-to-lynch scum would defend a buddy against another buddy's attacks but I'm not awake enough to give it thought.

Seregil:

Defends xvart during the jester discussion, attacks chibo because chibo "doesn't like xvart's replies".

I didn't notice anything scummy about xvart's posts. Maybe I just read them differently than Confid and Chibo, but I found their questioning of xvart slightly strange (e.g. Confid claiming xvart was jester hunting by merely raising the possibility and Chibo "not liking xvart's replies")

I'll follow up on my last post. Of Confid and Chibo I find Chibo more suspicious. When I last made notes he said (p3 somewhere) "I don't like xvart's replies." I didn't find anything wrong with them so maybe Chibo was trying to make xvart seem more suspicous at a time where he was being questioned by others.

Xvart:

Defends Seregil during the dichotomy, does the wagon hopping thing from EG to 5cvm back to EG, gets into that spat with Civil, after which both conclude the other is town, never particularly gets on the Aran wagon (instead pushing EG), except for the late hammer, which he claims was due to being shocked.

The Furry kill just in general makes sense as others have pointed out. Looking at Tommy, it seems to me that he was intending to look closely at xvart, but never really got around to it (obviously quite weak but I do like to hypothesize about why players were killed).

I don't have the time to make this flow and relate, as you can tell I've devolved into just listing things I noticed. It's honestly more of a feeling, and there are probably holes. But in any case,

Vote:Xvart

Also, regarding Civil-Me, I'm pretty sure a few players have pulled no/null reads on me which is understandable given my play (shining beams of logic ftw). Me-Aran, I wouldn't call that an explicit defense, more of a regurgitation of my thoughts. And can you honestly say that my "defense" of Aran reflects more of an interest in keeping him alive than your hand holding? Me-Civil is linked to my early play. I honestly found your actions weird regarding that incident which is why I brought it up. Of course, it was pretty much ignored and I wasn't willing to vote for you since that was the only oddity I noticed. Anyways, I guess Civil's ISO is next on my to-do list. -.-

[hitogoroshi]

Hmm, I'm really liking that last post of yours, squirrel. Just for you I'll look at xvart tomorrow. My vote stays on you for now though.

[xvart]

Interesting.

2 mafia are dead and there seems to be an SK. Does that mean we killed all the mafia, and now are looking for the SK?

2 Kills doesn't mean that there isn't Mafia. Assuming that mafia had a doctor, it could be feasible that town also has a doctor and someone is protected (although I guess the death scene would reveal a lot). Maybe 1-shot vig? I doubt that though.

I don't like either of these posts. They feel to me like misdirection, just asking questions about game setup and assumptions that aren't necessarily grounded on anything. For example,

• Does that mean we killed all the mafia, and now are looking for the SK?
  -Subtly suggesting not to look for mafia? Then:
  
  Two kills doesn't mean that there isn't Mafia.
  
  
  Assuming that mafia had a doctor, it could be feasible that town also has a doctor and someone is protected.
  - So there should have been another killing role and four deaths had this alleged doctor not selected correctly?
  
  Maybe 1-shot vig? I doubt that though.
  -Why would you doubt that?

I'm thinking we nailed all the scum day one.

Vote: Evilgorrilaz

I'll respond to hito and squirrel's posts later.

xvart.

[Evilgorrilaz]

I don't like either of these posts. They feel to me like misdirection, just asking questions about game setup and assumptions that aren't necessarily grounded on anything. For example,

• Does that mean we killed all the mafia, and now are looking for the SK?
  -Subtly suggesting not to look for mafia? Then:
  
  Two kills doesn't mean that there isn't Mafia.
  
  
  Assuming that mafia had a doctor, it could be feasible that town also has a doctor and someone is protected.
  - So there should have been another killing role and four deaths had this alleged doctor not selected correctly?
  
  Maybe 1-shot vig? I doubt that though.
  -Why would you doubt that?

I don't see why you wouldn't be wondering about the set-up. Usually in mini's that I have played, there are 2 or 3 scum. This is the first time I've played with what seems to be an SK role, so I don't know if that affects how many mafia there might be.

And No, I'm not suggesting that there should have been more deaths. A doctor simply seems feasible because of how many power roles scum has so far. 1 Town vig vs 1 mafia role blocker and 1 mafia doctor seems imbalanced in favor of the mafia. And I doubt there is a 1 shot vig because a full vig seems much more likely.

You are making the assumption that there are 3 mafia. How is that grounded on anything? although....

Mod: If someone (sk, vig, mafia) submits a kill and then is in turn targeted, does the kill go through?

[Evilgorrilaz]

EBWOP
When I say targeted I mean someone else submits a kill on said person

[ChiboSempai]

I'm like 99% sure that the kill would still go through, at least that's how its been in every other game I've played.

Xvart's postings on EvilGorrilaz is correct imo, I really don't know why he would say that. Also if he's making us believe we got all the scum, perhaps he's hoping to get us to stop scumhunting (and only look for an SK) which could protected him (if he was scum). I just really can not see their only being 2 scum personally for balance reasons.

I agree with ASquirrels findings on xvart, particularly not jumping on the Aranfan wagon, concluding that Civil was town, and more.

The problem now is that if we're shedding light on both of them, xvart already has EG voted which can complicate things if they cross vote. Sort of like a who do we believe sort of scenario.

EG who is ur #1 suspect?

[Boxman]

If a killing role tried to kill someone and was killed as well, the kill would still go through.

[A_Squirrel]

@Chibo:
So what I would do is take a look at the reasoning. While looking at noncontributors is a valid scum hunting strategy, now that we've got 2 slots which have flipped town, with 3 players having filled those slots, I would much prefer to look at interactions between players rather than continue looking at noncontributors. Of course, this is more focused on scumhunting rather than sk hunting, and looking at noncontributors may very well be the way to go in regards to an sk.

[TheButtonmen]

Because of Arafan’s comments and the fact that both mafia had PR’s I’m fairly convinced that there aren’t any mafia left. So our focus now should be on lynching a SK, like Chibo.

[milkshake]

an SK, like Chibo

Or hit.

[5cvm]

I'm such an idiot.

a SK, like Chibo

Or hit.

[hitogoroshi]

an SK, like Chibo

Or hit.

I love the fact that logging in to your alt will take more effort and thought than posting with it.

[xvart]

I agree with ASquirrels findings on xvart, particularly not jumping on the Aranfan wagon, concluding that Civil was town, and more.

I completely recognize how it looks for me; that being not so good. I'll do my best to prove otherwise.

My attitude on the whole hito analysis vs squirrel's analysis and think the best course would be to follow hito's suggestion to look for connections. For starters, we most likely have a serial killer and a sk's motive is random killing I would suggest we continue to look for connections as if there were scum and we might get lucky and hit the serial killer. Tomorrow we will know if there is more than one kill. Since the sk is most likely randomly killing and not going to be doing his best to not have connections at all it would be much more difficult to seek the sk. Unless of course the sk off'ed someone who was on to him; so... that would mean the sk would have targeted Squirrel since Furry mostly talked about his scumminess.

I'm going to ponder on Squirrel for now, but in the meantime:

Unvote: EvilGorrilaz

xvart.

[ChiboSempai]

Even though having a mafia doctor is quite powerful, I can't see there only being 2 scum. Can anyone reference a similar game (like just a normal setup) of 12 people that had less than 3 scum? I've never personally been in one before.

[A_Squirrel]

My attitude on the whole hito analysis vs squirrel's analysis and think the best course would be to follow hito's suggestion to look for connections. For starters, we most likely have a serial killer and a sk's motive is random killing I would suggest we continue to look for connections as if there were scum and we might get lucky and hit the serial killer. Tomorrow we will know if there is more than one kill. Since the sk is most likely randomly killing and not going to be doing his best to not have connections at all it would be much more difficult to seek the sk. Unless of course the sk off'ed someone who was on to him; so... that would mean the sk would have targeted Squirrel since Furry mostly talked about his scumminess.

This whole paragraph confuses me. The first sentence seems incomplete and hito's analysis was based on the lack of connections. Also, scumhunting via connections and hoping to hit the sk is odd, since any sk-scum connections are going to be purely coincidental (neither knows who the other group is). I would also disagree with the idea that the sk is randomly killing--the sk needs to live till endgame so I would imagine he would try not to stand out to prevent NKs and target strong/important players to weaken town. I agree that we should examine sk kills but the follow up to that sentence doesnt make sense to me, unless what you meant to say was that I'm the sk and targeted furry because furry posted a few comments saying he would be voting for me at a certain point in time. Otherwise I don't see why the sk would have targeted me but somehow killed Furry because he talked about me.

[xvart]

This whole paragraph confuses me. The first sentence seems incomplete and hito's analysis was based on the lack of connections.

Yes, I meant your method of looking for connections, not hito's.

Also, scumhunting via connections and hoping to hit the sk is odd, since any sk-scum connections are going to be purely coincidental (neither knows who the other group is).

Yes, that is what I was trying to say. The sk is just like any other townie and having no idea who is whom, with no known faction. My point was if we keep looking for scum we could still accidentally hit a townie but we just as easily hit the serial killer. I've never played a game with the serial killer so I don't really know what to look for since there won't be any scum slips of partners, knowledge, etc (except maybe something totally dumb).

I agree that we should examine sk kills but the follow up to that sentence doesnt make sense to me, unless what you meant to say was that I'm the sk and targeted furry because furry posted a few comments saying he would be voting for me at a certain point in time.

That's exactly what I meant, although it was more of a passive aggressive method of stating it (sorry it wasn't clear) as I'm not ready to directly accuse anyone of being the serial killer, but that was the only reason I could think of for "hunting the sk", which just so happened to be you. It was more of an observation for discussion than a flat accusation.

xvart.

[A_Squirrel]

Oh, okay, so I did understand your post haha.

Anyways, anyone know where Humble is?