890: Cults of Darkness and Shadow - Game over!

[dramonic]

I think I fit the "whining about balance" category. That is, I think Percy makes balanced games and therefore Start can't be darkness. The case is good though, just the conclusion is really implausible.

[dramonic]

I think I fit the "whining about balance" category. That is, I think Percy makes balanced games and therefore Start can't be darkness. The case is good though, just the conclusion is really implausible.

[Snow_Bunny]

Snow, quickly. Why is using probabillites a scum-tell? Why wouldn't he survive the night? The other scum faction would have no way of knowing if there was a Guardian or not.

Probabilities tell you nothing. It is highly unlikely you get struck by a lighting, yet every year people die that way. Also, using probabilities when you don't know all the facts is wrong. You can't say "it's highly unlikely that twins are born" when you have only analysed the birth information of a single city and not countrywide. It's the same here. You can't talk about probabilities unless you have full insight of the setup. Saying "it's highly unlikely that a town guardian, a town dreamwalker and the Shadows all targeted SOG" it's a fallacy. First of all, the probability has nothing to do with alignment. And second, it happens. In a game I recently finished (TTGL mafia, IIRC), everyone and their mom targeted UK during N1. Trying to use probabilities as facts and good bases is twisting the truth. And, remember me who are the ones who need to do that in order to win.

Snow do you think he's completely faking or that he's a shadow/darkness dreamwalker? I could see the scum teams getting different power roles, but I don't really see them as being > 2 at this moment in time. Bear in mind if they are > 2 we're almost fucking definitely in Lylo.

I think he's faking. But, truth be told, that doesn't matter. He's scum, and that's all that matters.

Hmm I'm going to have to think here a little bit on the set-up analysis, I found stark's claim odd but I definitely trusted it as I had no reason not to, I found his reasoning flawed but not scummy, really.

I don't know if town guardian + nilla is enough to combat a scum team of 2/3 w/ a guardian versus another scum team of maybe 2/3? it seems unlikely to me. I think I've reviewed/designed enough set-ups to know what seems balanced and I know Percy is a competent moderator.

*sigh* Do you know exactly what roles town got? How can you be so sure that town doesn't have 2 guardians? 3? A dreamwalker? You can't talk about balance until the setup is known.

I think basically the chances of him being scum despite the odd play are fairly slim at the moment knowing what we do.

So, you are acknowledging my case and his scumminess, but you aren't going to vote on him based on probabilities!?

*sigh*

To all you whinies that like to theorize on the setup instead of scumhunting (I'm talking to you, dramonic), 7 towns with 2 ~ 4 PR/ 3 Darkness with 1 PR / 2 Shadows with 2 PR. Is it too unbalanced?

Hmm... Makes me think something... That certainty of yours about balance... Dramonic, is it that you have knowledge about the Shadow's setup that you find it unbalancing for Darkness to have 3 members and a PR?

[dramonic]

If start is darkness thats three darkness with 2 PRs in them

Also, Percy reviews basically all my setups and does it well, I expect him to be able to balance is own as well. Nice dirt flinging though.

[Faraday]

Stuff on probabillites is OKAY. I kinda understand where you're coming from there I guess.

*sigh* Do you know exactly what roles town got? How can you be so sure that town doesn't have 2 guardians? 3? A dreamwalker? You can't talk about balance until the setup is known.

If there's another dreamwalker out there then they'd have counterclaimed by now as far as I'm concerned. 2/3 guardians could result in a very broken game for previously stated reasons ( Possibilty for cross protects would give the town a chance to auto-win).

So, you are acknowledging my case and his scumminess, but you aren't going to vote on him based on probabilities!?

I see your frustration but his claim has to be taken into account, to not do that would just be stupid.

To all you whinies that like to theorize on the setup instead of scumhunting (I'm talking to you, dramonic), 7 towns with 2 ~ 4 PR/ 3 Darkness with 1 PR / 2 Shadows with 2 PR. Is it too unbalanced?

Hey knowing how to speculate on a set-up can be an effective scum-hunting technique. Now I'm not Tar or Kinetic and don't claim to be able to break games but I do have a fairly good sense of game balance and I'm not going to throw it out the window.

The way I see it at the moment is this, we've either got 2 or 3 scum left at most. I'd say it's likely that Serial/Mipe were the only members of their cult as we didn't have a night kill last night. Now if the other scum group is 2 they have a power role but if they're 3 they're probably all regular mafia as I can't see a 3/3 mafia split being balanced without the like of 2 investigators on the innocents side or something. Also if the split was 3/3 we're probably pretty much fucked anyway, although I sincerely doubt that's the case as scum would be piling on quicker, I think.

Ugh, yeah you probably hated all that set-up specualtion, didn't you
Basically I think in either of the above scenario's a single town Guardian isn't enough power to balance the game and an investigative role would be probably needed.

I'd not be adverse to stark revealing his claimed innocent soon. I think it'd be helpful at this point as I'd be willing to assume them innocent too for the moment thus narrowing the lynch pool. It might also help those that think he's mafia decide if he's legit or not.

[startransmission]

I'd not be adverse to stark revealing his claimed innocent soon. I think it'd be helpful at this point as I'd be willing to assume them innocent too for the moment thus narrowing the lynch pool. It might also help those that think he's mafia decide if he's legit or not.

While I don't think it will change some peoples minds about the validity of my claim- Deathsauce is town.

I'm debating whether to place my vote on Chaco or Heilo. I need to reread both.

[DeathSauce]

Jesus, are my frackin' posts invisible?

Start may be scum (I'd bet on it) but Chaco is SC and mipe's scumbuddy.

For the setup whiners, one thing to consider is this is a game of cults. What if they are able to recruit?

[DeathSauce]

Oh, hey, didn't see that that post up there by you start.

So why did you investigate me?

[startransmission]

Oh, hey, didn't see that that post up there by you start.

So why did you investigate me?

Deathsauce should be looked at closer.

While I was considering who to investigate I read that post again. I felt like shit for being wrong about SOG, and it turned out he had a much better read on the game. I felt compelled to take his advice.

[Percy]

The Ritual hastens. More than half of the points forming the blazing emblem at your feet are filled with pure light.

Incantation Count

dramonic - 1 (Chaco)
Chaco - 1 (Deathsauce)
startransmission - 1 (Snow_Bunny)
Heilograph - 1 (Faraday)

Not Incanting - 4 (Heilograph, dramonic, startransmission)

The Ritual will take only 4 Incantations to complete at 6:00pm Saturday the 16th of January (site time).

5 Incantations are currently required to complete the Ritual.

[Faraday]

Jesus, are my frackin' posts invisible?

Start may be scum (I'd bet on it) but Chaco is SC and mipe's scumbuddy.

For the setup whiners, one thing to consider is this is a game of cults. What if they are able to recruit?

Man...seriously? There are no Elder Dreamwalkers. There are no Double Voters. There are no Nk immune miller vig's. There are no cult mechanics. Repeat it untill everyone realises it


I honestly don't think Chaco CAN be Sc/Mipe's scumbuddy. I don't think the game can be possible balanced if he is.

At this stage I'm thinking Stark is our only remaining power role, and I think a cop/doc in this game isn't such a bad combo that's breakable. I guess doc/doc could work too (if doc/cop works so does this, kinda) but since no one has claimed that I'm ruling it out.

That's pretty much why I think stark and by virtue deathsauce is innocent. I'm not saying 100% confirmed yet but I think it'll be easily sorted out anyway.

[DeathSauce]

Man...seriously? There are no Elder Dreamwalkers. There are no Double Voters. There are no Nk immune miller vig's. There are no cult mechanics. Repeat it untill everyone realises it

Fine, if you say so.

I honestly don't think Chaco CAN be Sc/Mipe's scumbuddy. I don't think the game can be possible balanced if he is.

Then please explain why SC said repeatedly that Darkness had three members plus a power role

[Snow_Bunny]

Come on guys, I bet you can feel it too. Star is scum. Let's lynch him.

[Faraday]

Then please explain why SC said repeatedly that Darkness had three members plus a power role

Uh? He's scum? He's not going to be 100% honest with everything he says in the thread? I mean that's a pretty poor reason to think there's a 3rd scum.

What do you think happened to the night kill last night then?

[Snow_Bunny]

Faraday, have you heard the word "gambit"?

It's more than possible that the last Darkness member (I'm 99.9% sure there's a last member, named star) decided to forego the kill in order to appear dead to everyone.

[startransmission]

Faraday, have you heard the word "gambit"?

It's more than possible that the last Darkness member (I'm 99.9% sure there's a last member, named star) decided to forego the kill in order to appear dead to everyone.

That's a hell of a reach. I know you're riding the high of being right about SC, but flawed logic (as I well know) can blind you.

And think about that for a second, do you really believe scum would forgo a NK for the sake of appearance? At this point in the game? Especially when the majority think that your main scum suspect is telling the truth? I don't see the benefit.

[Faraday]

Faraday, have you heard the word "gambit"?

It's more than possible that the last Darkness member (I'm 99.9% sure there's a last member, named star) decided to forego the kill in order to appear dead to everyone.

no please explain the word to me.

1)that's a really bad idea for a couple of reasons 1) they then have to No kill 2)for the rest of the game and risk being hit by the opposing scum team.
it lengthens the game out and makes it far more likely to be lynched
3) depending on the person they could be individually scummy and lynched for being other scum group anyway, kinda linked to 2 tho.

why do you think star can't be the opposing scum-group? I mean that argument would make a lot more sense to me at least, he's a dreamwalker from there who tried a gambit to get a townie/opposing scum lynched.

[Faraday]

^^ obviously I know what a gambit is, not being legit retarded and all that >__> but the point still stands

[Faraday]

Just replaced into another game and spent today catching on that, I'll get to this tomorrow.

[Heilograph]

Come on guys, I bet you can feel it too. Star is scum. Let's lynch him.

Little jumpy are we?
I'm kinda thinking that snows idea makes some sense and I'm willing to give it a try. I don't really think Chaco is scum maybe deathsauce is a chacos partner in crime, but don't hold it to me.
I am completly unsure about dram, farday is confusing me, so I'll pick the only one left

vote: startransmission

[startransmission]

Come on guys, I bet you can feel it too. Star is scum. Let's lynch him.

Little jumpy are we?
I'm kinda thinking that snows idea makes some sense and I'm willing to give it a try. I don't really think Chaco is scum maybe deathsauce is a chacos partner in crime, but don't hold it to me.
I am completly unsure about dram, farday is confusing me, so I'll pick the only one left

vote: startransmission

So... POE is it? It's obvious by your post that you don't believe my claim. That would make me a liar, so why not use that as an excuse to vote me?

[dramonic]

If start is actually lying about his claim its a huge gambit :S

I mean, deathsauce could be of another alignment than that indicated, if he gets nked...

bottomline is, I believe the claim.

[Snow_Bunny]

@Faraday: It's not that I don't think Star can't be Shadow. It's that his early D1 play shows a connection with Darkness.

Well, I also have another idea, and I want you to weigh in. Let's star survive another day. If he isn't NK, then we lynch him tomorrow after he says another "result". Scum can't risk to have a cop out there, and if he survives two nights in a row then there's something fishy there. If he's scum, then we lynched scum and we can work out from his investigation claims. If he's town, then we have confirmed results.

To be honest, I rather lynch him today, but sometimes you have to take some risk in order to catch scum.

[DeathSauce]

Come on guys, I bet you can feel it too. Star is scum. Let's lynch him.

Little jumpy are we?
I'm kinda thinking that snows idea makes some sense and I'm willing to give it a try. I don't really think Chaco is scum maybe deathsauce is a chacos partner in crime, but don't hold it to me.
I am completly unsure about dram, farday is confusing me, so I'll pick the only one left

vote: startransmission

1)What is "jumpy" about Snow's post?

2) Why don't you think Chaco is scum?

3) What indications do you have to propose that I am scum with Chaco?

4) What is confusing about Faraday?

That post is pure active lurking, offers no useful information, attempts to vaguely paint three players with a scumbrush, is packed full of words like "kinda" and "don't hold me to it" and "unsure", and then votes for a claimed cop.

In summary, Heliograph is scum.

Incant:Heliograph[/

[DeathSauce]

Come on guys, I bet you can feel it too. Star is scum. Let's lynch him.

Little jumpy are we?
I'm kinda thinking that snows idea makes some sense and I'm willing to give it a try. I don't really think Chaco is scum maybe deathsauce is a chacos partner in crime, but don't hold it to me.
I am completly unsure about dram, farday is confusing me, so I'll pick the only one left

vote: startransmission

1)What is "jumpy" about Snow's post?

2) Why don't you think Chaco is scum?

3) What indications do you have to propose that I am scum with Chaco?

4) What is confusing about Faraday?

That post is pure active lurking, offers no useful information, attempts to vaguely paint three players with a scumbrush, is packed full of words like "kinda" and "don't hold me to it" and "unsure", and then votes for a claimed cop.

In summary, Heliograph is scum.

Incant:Heliograph