one of cruelt, sir chris, and myself is scum based on voting analysis. all three of us were on both wagons. rhinox, too, but he has flipped town which then increases the odds of one of us being scum. not being me, i have to conclude that one of cruelt and sir chris is scum. i will be analyzing those two slots and posting my thoughts soon.
don_johnson wrote:one of cruelt, sir chris, and myself is scum based on voting analysis. all three of us were on both wagons. rhinox, too, but he has flipped town which then increases the odds of one of us being scum. not being me, i have to conclude that one of cruelt and sir chris is scum. i will be analyzing those two slots and posting my thoughts soon.
While I am usually all aboard this line of thinking, it really comes off as "I am scum and here is how I am going to get you to vote for one of the people on my lynch using logic that applies to me."
Honestly I don't really know where to go. If I look at it like don says, the three candidates as Sir Chris, Cruelty, and himself, I would have to go with a SJ/Don vote. So far SJ made himself look very suspicious, while Sir Chris has seemed quite town to me. Cruelty looked logical in his disccussions with wicked. Obviously wicked turning out town taints that, but I can't hold it against him because I felt wicked was being scummy as well.
Well, we have Haylen claiming vig day 1, and being lynched, with Scott Brosius and The Inquisition nightkilled as lovers. Day two we lynched wicked, townie, and Rhinox was night killed, townie. That's the basis. Day three hasn't been much of anything, there is a wagon going on SolemnJ/Don_johnson at this point, but replacements are many and activity is low. You could do votecount analysis of the lynches and read just around the end of each day for the general gist of things.
Sir Chris wrote:
While I am usually all aboard this line of thinking, it really comes off as "I am scum and here is how I am going to get you to vote for one of the people on my lynch using logic that applies to me."
That's bad.
why is this different than "usually"? i can't help it if my predecessor drew suspicion. you also seem to be creating bias before i have even gone into any sort of analysis. why are you voting me?
don_johnson wrote:
why is this different than "usually"? i can't help it if my predecessor drew suspicion. you also seem to be creating bias before i have even gone into any sort of analysis. why are you voting me?
I don't think it's unreasonable to be voting for a player whose slot has been scummy thoughout the game. I think it would be more unreasonable to shift votes off that slot purely because it's a different player - it doesn't change the fact that the slot has appeared scummy and it's your job to rescue the situation.
At the end of the day we have to make our mind up based on what you do - if you're not scum (and I'm relatively happy with my vote at the moment) then you have to dissuade us.
I don't think it's unreasonable to be voting for a player whose slot has been scummy thoughout the game. I think it would be more unreasonable to shift votes off that slot purely because it's a different player - it doesn't change the fact that the slot has appeared scummy and it's your job to rescue the situation.
not sure what you mean here. i want to know why sir chris is voting me. i haven't made any appeal to anyone here to simply "forgive" my slot, if thats what you are implying. in order for me to "rescue" the situation i would think it wouldn't be unreasonable to ask such questions. thru strict voting analysis i find both yours and chris' slot scummy. i plan on expanding on it with further analysis.
cruelty wrote:At the end of the day we have to make our mind up based on what you do - if you're not scum (and I'm relatively happy with my vote at the moment) then you have to dissuade us.
let's give me a chance before we make up our minds, k?
I am voting for you because SJ's posts had little regard to how they voted, switching votes all the time and their logic being lacking. Also I can't take a player seriously who acts as if they know what the game is about before they read the game. You do yourself no favors. "You guys are scummy because of your voting even though I haven't read the topic." That's bad.
Sir Chris wrote:I am voting for you because SJ's posts had little regard to how they voted, switching votes all the time and their logic being lacking. Also I can't take a player seriously who acts as if they know what the game is about before they read the game. You do yourself no favors. "You guys are scummy because of your voting even though I haven't read the topic." That's bad.
whatever. i nailed scum in my last game with a similar strategy. players lie. good players mislead. therefore reading isn't always the best way to scumhunt imo. scum generally follow voting patterns and it is usually the case in the course of a couple mislynches for at least one scum to be on both wagons. as i readi will note your accusations of voteswitching and see if i can't understand SJ's logic. hopefully i can find scum and in the process lighten the suspicion on myself. replacing in this late, as town, under suspicion in a game where town seems to be playing horribly is no small task. had i known the situatiuon i might have passed. my scumhunting isn't bad, but i'm not great at shedding suspicion. so, whatever. talk soon.
no. i haven't even had time to reread anything that i haven't commented on. i am not glued to my computer. are we on a deadline here? is this whole game waiting on me? if so, you'll have to be patient.
okay. just reads from day3 start to present. goog golly i almost pissed myself. seeing as how noone really wanted to expound about the case on the solemnj slot i took it upon myself to figure this out.
sirchris went from suspecting virtually noone and actually devoting three posts to stating that stance, to voting furry on "gut". after two days, lynches, nk's etc. he starts with a "gut" vote. okay.
then he iso's solemnj and switches. did anyone notice the timestamps? five minutes. he read 65 posts in five minutes. apparently. didn't bother to give any examples of why his suspicions were founded and is now claiming that he is also voting for me because of the direct result of a conversation about vote count analysis that i was having with furry.
vote: sir chris
apparently the case against me has jack shit in regards to evidence, a bandwagon hopper(cruelty) to get the game going, and cute, but otherwise rude fuzzy cub. town has no need to be launching such a poor case on day 3 as this case against solemnj/dj.
cruelty, remove your vote. you obviously had little reason to place it in the first place. leaving it here only connects you to sirchris who is imo obvscum.
SolemnJ wrote:Hm...wicked lynch will reveal a lot more, but I still think he's town.
I think all three of these wagons are wrong.
SolemnJ wrote:Wicked has been actively contributing to the thread, creating more valid info for finding scum.
You could call some of the things he does scummy, but I don't see any of the logic against him as solid.
Sure the wicked lynch would reveal more, but I feel wicked is a very good player and can help us attain victory.
Do mislynches > no lynches?
I don't see how wondering about this makes me seem scummy.
SolemnJ wrote:
Sir Chris wrote:Scum do not only lurk though. That's the thing. Good scum will "contribute" while all the while town dies around them. Also what has he said that is valid? Has he lead to a scum lynch? Do you think his vote on cades is going to lead to a scum lynch? It isn't 'valid' if it is lynching town.
Hm...this is validpost. I suppose I thought wicked was good player b/c of the air he put off. He seemed to act like he knew what he was doing. Asking good questions, making good points.
But I read his posts again, and I spy a contradiction.
Wickedestjr wrote:
Faraday wrote:Is this fucking serious? So b/c ONE townie does it, it means it's not scummy? Really Wicked? Oh god this is unbelievably bad.
Lurking/not contributing is a stupid reason to lynch a player for in general anyway. How is that opinion "unbelievably bad"?
Wickedestjr wrote:Alright. This is my last day here, and I didn't have the time to catch up completely, but I'll switch my vote to a place where it serves a good purpose. In this case, I like the cades votes the best, even though cruelty is one of the people voting him:
Unvote Vote:cades
When I return it should be day 3, so I will be crossing my fingers that we vote off scum.
I wish I had seen/this was pointed out earlier.
Wicked just wanted to say it wasnt his idea, and seems to be pushing a mislynch.
And I suppose we could draw a lot from the wicked lynch. (like how cades is town if he is scum).
unvote; vote wicked
These three posts in succession looked terrible to me, I did not read over his entire topic, just the end of the day.
You have literally no case on me, stop being a hypocritical voter. I mean, there is no case on me because I am town, but your posts lacks effort.
Also your main thrust of your argument "he is voting me for this reason" is completely wrong. I am voting you because I read several of SJ's posts and they don't seem genuine to me. All I can say about your posts is you are not convincing me you are town, not that you have really actively convinced me, in your time playing, that you are scum. That was done before you entered this game.
Although actually I take that back, your logic is so flawed and wrong that I am almost wanting to say scum couldn't come up with something so flawed as their best effort.
you make me laugh. the posts you quote show a logical progression of thought from solemnj in regards to his vote.
no hypocrisy here. i narrowed down my scumhunting pool by votecount analysis and find your play on day 3 more scummy than my other candidate. i don't have a "case" on you other than that you are pushing a mislynch on nothing more than hollow accusations, a fabricated iso analysis(65 posts/5 minutes), and now the granddaddy bullshit quote of all:
sirchris wrote:All I can say about your posts is you are not convincing me you are town, not that you have really actively convinced me, in your time playing, that you are scum. That was done before you entered this game.
your thoughts in my direction began on day 3 after three posts of "i don't know jack shit and am suspicious of noone."
sorry pal, but you're caught scum. score one for dj.
for reference, please see my recent game: mini 845 the amish village. i nailed scum with a similar votecount analysis. its over now, so feel free to peruse.
you guys are welcome. lets lynch this phony bastard.
Did I just get called pal. What in the hell. You are not my pal.
Secondly, I tend to be honest as town, so I read through the game once and couldn't really find anything connecting the dots. However when I noticed Furry's bad post I had a second thought because I remembered not liking SJ too much earlier, and his posts irked me.
The three posts I posted were not, in fact, logical progression at all.
Post 1: Wicked will reveal a lot of stuff, but I think he is town
Post 2: Sure it would reveal more, but damnit, he is town
Post 3: Cherrypicks a post and votes him because we could learn a lot from it.
Basically in these three posts he says the same thing, but only after noticing wicked is becoming popular and trendy does he change his stance on "learning info is not good when you are mislynching." I find it beyond belief that you have the audacity to post as you do and then hang up a score card. For one, no town in the history of forever should be so confident on their scum case built purely upon posts within this topic (read: without power role help) that they can already mark one up on their scorecard before that lynch. You are coming into this topic with far too much of a lax attitude considering how badly we have collectively done this game. Yet here you are, with not a care in the world, actually either believing that I am scum or being scum yourself.
The problem I am once again having is I can see a member of town doing this. You are 7-3 as scum according to your sig so this tells me that either you got really lucky as scum or know what you are doing, while your 9-10 record as town tells me you might have been carried to those mafia victories by your team members.
Confessing to not having a direction is not in and of itself a crime. There are times where you need more information or a new spark to obtain information or process it correctly. You have s very liberal of the use of the word logic and in portraying my point of view. I find it nearly offensive, honestly, how you can take what I wrote as twist it into some scum master plan.
Also I don't care (I didn't get a chance to respond this yet) what scum you nailed in what game. Mafia is an ever changing style where one success does not validate a strategy. Great players mislead, other great players can learn to counter such tactics. While it is true votals never lie, they too can be obscured. Mafia can vote for their own buddies, they can not hop onto a lynch if they feel it has momentum on its own right, for example. Saying that your method is best because it worked at one given time is just bad play on your part if you honestly believe that. You have just admitted to us that you don't really know what you are doing in terms of reading people and actually challenging others and instead must rely upon "facts" to lead you, which in fact so called great players will manipulate those as well.
Also, of the many things I might be, both good and bad, this is the first time I have ever been called phony. There is absolutely, without a doubt, nothing phony about me in the least. I read quickly, I think quickly, and I post quickly. I have offered nothing but my honest opinion and you have offered nothing but what if scenarios that are easily explained. You think my 5 minutes in ISO were offputting, I wasn't carefully reading over every post, but looking for a trend because my memory had been jogged. I found it, I voted. There is of course some way for me to be scum, but just logically speaking my vision of events makes more sense than yours.
Scum Chris: Oh man I just voted furry after not doing much today but damn, SJ is so much better! Let me just randomly do that
Town Chris: Oh man, I didn't like that Furry post and....wait, I remember not liking SJ earlier. Let me read through a few posts and see what that is about, there may be a valid point.
Yeah, so really, pal, if you are scum you need to come at me with far more than that to see me dead on this day, I don't lie down for bad scum. If you are in fact town I suggest you reimagine your brilliant theories. Furthermore, you seemed to dismiss cruelty out of hand almost, I would like more detail as to why that was.
Can't wait!
