888: X-COM TFTD Mafia: Over!

[malthusis]

Still no change in votes from last VC(Andrew unvoted his vote change), but a few notes:

1.Reminder to all: Deadline is Jan 14th.

2.Edward is being prodded.

[Jaime Marcelle]

If you're going to do that, then just lynch me today. If you do it tomorrow you lose the game.

So if we do it today we'll win the game? Are you one of those people that on day 4 just turn into scum? No, of course you aren't! If we lynch wrong today and scum successfully kills tonight, we lose (still assuming there are 2 scum alive of course). On the other hand though, if we do NL today and lynch you tomorrow then assuming you're scum, we would have 1 scum vs. 3 townies which gives us much better odds of hitting scum vs us killing you today 1 scum vs 4 townies (1/4 chance vs 1/5).

However, something else I'm seeing. Leon is trying to play with our emotions as he sees that hes the most likely death tomorrow. Stuff like "If you lynch me you'll lose!" will get you nowhere!

[Leon Dreyfus]

Uhm, if you're going to kill me tomorrow, just do it today. Scum will not kill me tonight, so the same suspicion will exist tomorrow. It's that easy to undermine the No Lynch. If you lynch me today, you at least, hopefull, have a chance of winning tomorrow.

Also, I'm not playing with your emotions. It seems like your trying so hard to falsely incriminate me. I am just saying if you're going to lynch me regardless, do it today so town still has a chance.

[Jaime Marcelle]

Uhm, if you're going to kill me tomorrow, just do it today. Scum will not kill me tonight, so the same suspicion will exist tomorrow. It's that easy to undermine the No Lynch. If you lynch me today, you at least, hopefull, have a chance of winning tomorrow.

Also, I'm not playing with your emotions. It seems like your trying so hard to falsely incriminate me. I am just saying if you're going to lynch me regardless, do it today so town still has a chance.

Leon, are you paying any attention? Today is mylo which means if we lynch town today then we lose. If we lynch you and you are town then it does not matter if we lynch you today or tomorrow, we'd still lose.

[Edward Smilie]

But only if my assumption is right. However, if my assumption isn't correct, we have another day to play with, ne? Odd are, one of Jaime or Leon is scum. Jaime is more likely to be last remaining scum. Leon, however, fits as part of a scum group. So, honestly, we should either lynch Leon today or tomorrow, and if by some stretch of the imagination he flips town, lynch Jaime, quite likely for the win.

What are the flaws in this plan?

That I'm currently finding it very hard to see a scumgroup where there's more than one person left which doesn't include Claude.

You keep talking up Jaime's vote switch, but one pro-town thing the entire game does not justify the rest of it. I'm calling it a cleverly timed vote jump.

He is either VI, or the more than likely blatant obvious scum.

The bolded part is funny, because that's exactly my view of you.

And yes, we talk that up. It's the most significant thing he's done. What 'other things?' All I get other than that are kinda what I call 'tone of voice' things. He doesn't sound like a town player who particularly knows what he's doing. But then, neither do you.

Can you explain what other things there are that are more important than placing a vote on scum at a crucial juncture that gives that wagon the momentum?

However, something else I'm seeing. Leon is trying to play with our emotions as he sees that hes the most likely death tomorrow. Stuff like "If you lynch me you'll lose!" will get you nowhere!

Did saying that make Igor scum, Jaime?

Also, I'm not playing with your emotions. It seems like your trying so hard to falsely incriminate me.

And if he's town, he probably has the same feeling about you. You're saying he's 100% scum, after all. Quite apart from the fact that the case for you being scum is better than the one for him.

Vote: No lynch

If I've read something right, the scum have a pretty tough decision tomorrow.

[Leon Dreyfus]

Your bolded part is funny as well, Edward, as you are essentially just trying to annoy me.

And just so we're clear, one town thing in an ENTIRE game of other town actions does not make up for a game of scum. I have NO idea where you are getting this from.

This is honestly the "want to play it safe as possible" town that I have ever seen. Playing it safe DOES NOT always work.

All I can say is, be lucky I'm not a vig. My vote is not moving, and I'm pretty much done with the discussion.

[Claude Lefevre]

That I'm currently finding it very hard to see a scumgroup where there's more than one person left which doesn't include Claude.

[/quote]

This is true, and this is exactly why I am no big fun of the 3+Gerhard theory I want to add, tho, that you (Edward) could as well be a scum-buddy of mine, of Andrew and even of Jaime and Spencer. Our positions are pretty symmetric.

But this is a technical note, and not the direction of my thoughts. Here is my situation: I do not trust Jaime, but I have no concrete evidence against him. If you want me to post my summary of my reasons to FoS him during the game, it will take a while, but I can do it. You guys need it?

On the other side of the barricade we have Leon, whose behavior in the last 2 or 3 pages is terrible, but then again, so were Stuart's and Igor's.

I like the idea of a NL, because I think that:

1) in case there are 2 scum, tomorrow we will be 3 vs 2, which gives us a 40% of hitting scum even if we voted random and we would also have a lot of chances of putting scum in the corner if we ask the right questions.

2) in case there is but 1 scum, tomorrow we will be 4 vs 1; if we myslynch its gonna be 3 vs 1 at twilight and a 3-player lylo on day 6. 3-player lylo is a good situation for town, better than a 3 vs 1 4-player lylo on daytime, which would give us worse odds (25% on random vote) of lynching scum.

[Edward Smilie]

Your bolded part is funny as well, Edward, as you are essentially just trying to annoy me.

No, really, I'm not. I'm serious. I think any reasonable, impartial observer looking at this game being asked 'Who is the VI?' would be at least as likely to say 'Leon' as 'Jaime.' After all, if you're not deliberately playing dumb, then you appear to be completely unaware of why saying you want to lynch one player whilst pushing the counterwagon makes it look like you don't really want to lynch that player.

And just so we're clear, one town thing in an ENTIRE game of other town actions does not make up for a game of scum. I have NO idea where you are getting this from.

Again. I don't see an 'entire game of scum.' If you think this, i'd like you to explain why.

@ Claude: I'd be interested in seeing you expand on that, but from my perspective:

Andrew looks town
Jaime and Leon sure as hell don't look like buddies
Spencer's behavior today makes him look more likely to be buddied with you than either of Jaime or Leon

[Jaime Marcelle]

Did saying that make Igor scum, Jaime?

No, however, it was still scummy.

Anyway, sorry my post was REALLY short but I just had time to come in, answer this short question and leave. I'll post more later.

[Andrew Lemarchand]

If you're going to do that, then just lynch me today. If you do it tomorrow you lose the game.

I am absolutely not committed to lynching you D5 and I don't think everyone else is either. As Igor proved, "kill me now" comments like these don't mean that you're scum but they do don't do any good. Please stick around and defend yourself today and tomorrow.

Leon, are you paying any attention? Today is mylo which means if we lynch town today then we lose. If we lynch you and you are town then it does not matter if we lynch you today or tomorrow, we'd still lose.

And you know this how? If there's only 1 scum remaining, a mislynch today will not lose us the game. Do you know something that us townies don't?

[Jaime Marcelle]

As I have said before, the town must always assume the worst (while still being reasonable) and in this case, the worst is that we are up against 2 scum. Countless times before I have said "assuming there are 2 scum". Now why do you think I said that? Jeez, do I really need to keep putting it in each of my posts that reference the number of scum? (JK )

[Andrew Lemarchand]

It's been nearly 36 hours since anyone other than myself or Jaime has posted and nearly 24 hours since anyone has posted...I'm definitely getting close to just voting No Lynch and moving to the next day.

[Claude Lefevre]

@Edward:

Andrew looks town. I posted several times about "people being most likely town": I was thinking of him.

Jaime and Leon are unlikely to be scumbuddies, agree on that.

I honestly do not see where I and Spencer buddied.

I will post more later, sorry for lurking: long day at work today.

[Jaime Marcelle]

It's been nearly 36 hours since anyone other than myself or Jaime has posted and nearly 24 hours since anyone has posted...I'm definitely getting close to just voting No Lynch and moving to the next day.

We still have until Thursday so we might as well talk until then. I'd say the very earliest anyone shopuld hammer is 24 hrs before deadline and only if they know that they're not going to be on until then.

[Edward Smilie]

I honestly do not see where I and Spencer buddied.

I didn't accuse you of buddying up, I suggested you were buddied, ie you are mutually aligned. He came in, screaming for Jaime's head, then started considering Leon after I flagged up a few things. He's basically ignored you. That's why i think you're a more likely Spencer buddy than either of the others.

[Claude Lefevre]

I now see what you mean and the analysis is correct. My bad. Despite my best efforts I am ESL

Quick questions round:

1) Leon: do you agree that if I were scum Spencer would prolly be my buddy?
2) Jaime: What do you think of Edward?
3) Edward: if Jaime were scum, do you think we would suspect you to be his buddy?
4) Spencer: who would be your main suspect if Edward were night-killed?
5 Andrew: assume Leon and Jaime were both town. Give me your readings on the remaining three of us.

[Edward Smilie]

3) Edward: if Jaime were scum, do you think we would suspect you to be his buddy?

Possibly. But who the hell cares? You can't play town worrying about what it will look like if you're wrong. Make your best guess and let the chips fall where they may.

Spencer: who would be your main suspect if Edward were night-killed?

Scummy, scummy question. Hey guys, why not tell us exactly how you will react to every possible nightkill so scum can best plot the kill that leaves them able to cause a town lynch tomorrow!

[Jaime Marcelle]

2) Jaime: What do you think of Edward?

I think I've already said what I thought of Edward a while back but w/e, it was probably a while ago. Anyway, Edward seems like a protown player who always offers protown opinion, asks protown questions etc. etc.

[Andrew Lemarchand]

5 Andrew: assume Leon and Jaime were both town. Give me your readings on the remaining three of us.

This question feels a little scummy too, like you're trying to figure out if I can be useful to you or if I should be NKed. I kinda answered your question there, but if Leon and Jaime are both town, then I like Edward for pointing out the townliness of Jaime's vote for Emile and I like Spencer for his reasonable reassessment of Jaime. That leaves you.

[malthusis]

Sorry for not posting a vote count, here's one:

The Second Vote Count of Day 4:

No Lynch:2 (Edward, Jaime)
Jaime Marcelle:1 (Leon)

Not Voting:3 (Andrew,Spencer, Claude)

Deadline is tomorrow noon at GMT-6

[Jaime Marcelle]

Since we're on the subject of Claude's questions I have a question for him.

Claude- Why did you just decide to ask these questions. They just seemed to come from out of the blue so do you have any purpose for it or were they just random questions?

[Claude Lefevre]

to make the discussion restart... the really interesting gone was the first, but it's the only one that got no answers...

also, the only reason why I am discussing the possibility that given players are nk-ed is that it seemed extremely likely to me that this day will end in a nl. In a different situation I would have just asked "what if x flips town/scum".

whatever

[Edward Smilie]

But, Claude, you do this.

You say 'Why would scum kill their own?' and justify it because 'scum might slip up and give their alignment away.' Far more likely, town gives away role info, which helps the scum.

You say 'What if X is NKed?' and justify it by the NL, even though it clearly benefits scum more to know that information.

In short, you ask questions, the likely answers to which are more useful to scum than town, and then try to make them sound townish.

BTW: In case i get NKed, the very first thing that needs doing tomorrow is a massclaim. No-one should comment on anyone else's claim until all claims have been made.

[Andrew Lemarchand]

Since this could be it for me, take a long, hard look at Claude before too rashly deciding between Leon/Jaime.

[malthusis]

It is deadline and No Lynch has the most votes, so we have No Lynch.
Flavor will be up later, but send in your actions ASAP.