888: X-COM TFTD Mafia: Over!


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Post Post #625 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 3:38 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

Leon Dreyfus wrote:It's not gambling if it's a sure thing.
then u definitely think that Jaime is 100% scum?

This is weird. I have FoSed Jaime all along the game and I still don't trust him, but I cannot say I am 100% sure that he is scum, and I would support a NL today.

Why shouldn't I think that this is a desperate scum effort to get someone lynched?
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Post Post #626 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 8:57 am

Post by Andrew Lemarchand »

As nearly no discussion is taking place and the deadline is a only few days away I will
Vote: No Lynch
.
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Post Post #627 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:11 am

Post by Leon Dreyfus »

Fail, fail, fail.

Fine, have it your way. I'm 100% though, there's no way he's not.

Also, WIFOM, but I wouldn't try to if I were scum. Waiting is the smarter scum strat as they will still win UNLESS if we lynch today.
Sorry, but [b]V/LA[/b] for a bit...
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Post Post #628 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 10:15 am

Post by Claude Lefevre »

is deadline really so close?
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Post Post #629 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:12 am

Post by Jaime Marcelle »

Leon wrote:Fine, have it your way. I'm 100% though, there's no way he's not.
If you want people to beleive you that I'm 100% scum you have to give proof. When you don't you are doing 2 things.

1. You are preventing town from lynching scum (assuming I am)
2. You are preventing me from defending myself/giving an explanation
Claude wrote:is deadline really so close?
Deadline in on jan 14 (in one week) so we're not
that
close but we're getting there. Anyway, i reccomend that no one else vote (for right now) until deadline gets closer. If anyone does vote however, i will not hesitate to unvote.
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Post Post #630 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 3:57 pm

Post by Spencer Remmington »

Jaime wrote:
177: Again, I did not think he was town. There is a very big differance between something that is beleivable and actually beleiving it. Stuart claimed bp. I thought that it was a beleivable claim (meaning that it's not some weird thing he probably made up like a secret daycop) but I was not willing to beleive it until he could prove me otherwise. I know that was a very bad post after looking back again and that it does look like a fencesit but whatev, there's nothing I can do about it now.
You probably should have been clearer on that.
Jaime wrote:
319: Flip color? Really? This is a really bad point. Color does not tell someone what faction they belonged to. Mods can use any color they fucking want. For example, If someone died and it said "Hypothetical person (Cop)" in red (as that seems to be the most used scum color) would you think he was scum or a townie? What most people look at (at least me anyway) is thae flavor text and the flip name.
Mod meta. Malt plays Tar games. Tar games explicitly use red and green as base colors and different colors for third parties. And if someone died and it said "Person (Cop)", in red, I'd assume a scum cop.

Jaime wrote:
404: Which is why I put the placeholder vote on Leon. I also look for overall scumminess, not just one scummy thing that they do. Of course if that one scummy thing is big enough I will look at them closely (which I did for Leon and Emile at that point) or vote them if it is rediculously scummy.
We're reaching theory argument at this point. I don't think I can convince you of that being a bad tactic, nor can you convince me it's a good one. I'll accept it for the time being.
Jaime wrote:
430: This is Leons post.
Derp, meant 429
Jaime wrote:
439: I took my vote off because obviously I wasn't helping out the town with it at all and I was possibly hurting the town. Now why would a townie purposefully hurt the town? (Also, this is overall just a reworded summary of what I said in my response because I can't think of any other way to explain it better. If you still don't understand I'm sure I could think of something).
WIFOM. I don't see how your vote was at all hurting town.
Leon wrote: And claiming now because it's endgame, and it's worthless to try and hide roles at this point.
Unless we, yanno, no lynch.
Leon wrote: Smart, because it narrows down the lynch. I REFUSE A NO LYNCH TODAY! HoS: Edward Dear lord, pushing it without trying is not smart. NO NO LYNCH UNTIL THE DAY ENDS. We can scum hunt up until then. Geezus.
Bit eager to win as scum, are we?

Post 609 Leon: I highly doubt you didn't know that. Further, it's the swing vote tell. Why did you vote Igor, despite wanting Emile to die, but, as far as I can tell, never voting Emile?
Jaime wrote: Did your role PM say you were a "Merely avarage aquanaut" or what because the whole "Merely" thing just seems out of place.
Missed this. Jaime, do you realize how terribly scummy this makes you look? Honestly, if it weren't for MY role PM I'd be voting you now.
Andrew wrote: Like you said yourself, Igor was saying a lot of crazy stuff and looked like he definitely deserved a vote. At the time, I felt that Emile was scummy but that Igor was even scummier.
Given the other players, I think you are the least of my worries. Or second least. I think your assessment was accurate.

Post 614 Leon: Ok, fine, he's acted antitown. Can you PLEASE explain why he did the swing vote off of a townie onto a theoretical scumbuddy, when Igor's lynch would probably have SEALED THE GAME FOR SCUM?

This is the ONLY reason I basically dropped the Jaime case.

Post 618 Leon: My problem is still the swing vote. And I am actually finding Jaime town for it after reassessing it. Please counter that argument.
Jaime wrote: While i do agree it could be considered scummy and something scum would use, I personally don't think it should be considered scummy unless you have more to go off on. From my point of veiw, just one time is not enough to build a solid case on it.
Why do you make me facepalm? What does meta have to do with a WIFOM argument for innocence?

Wellp, Leon is basically exploding into shambles of scumtardedness. But hey, if he can counter the swing vote point effectively, AND absolve his own swing vote AWAY from scum, I'll be willing to listen.
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Post Post #631 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 4:00 pm

Post by Andrew Lemarchand »

My bad on the deadline, I had forgotten that it had been extended. We have plenty of time to continue discussion and I suggest we use it so I will
Unvote


@ Leon - I know Stuart flatly accused Emile of being scum without providing any reasoning, but it would be helpful at this point in the game if you could explain your feelings further. I share your suspicion of Jaime but I don't see how you could be so confident.
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Post Post #632 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 4:30 pm

Post by Leon Dreyfus »

Cleverly timed bus vote is all I can pretty much say.
Sorry, but [b]V/LA[/b] for a bit...
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Post Post #633 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 4:40 pm

Post by Spencer Remmington »

Leon Dreyfus wrote:Cleverly timed bus vote is all I can pretty much say.
Instead of being able to go DIRECTLY FOR THE WIN by getting Igor lynched? Really? Are you REALLY arguing that instead of going for a viable lynch that would WIN SCUM THE GAME, that Jaime would throw that away for shaky town cred?

You know, if I hadn't argued the same thing a couple days ago I'd swear you were crazy.
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Post Post #634 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 4:50 pm

Post by Jaime Marcelle »

Leon wrote:Cleverly timed bus vote is all I can pretty much say.
This... This is IT? THIS is the reason you're "100% sure" I'm scum. Sigh. Anyway, I really don't feel like reading through another wall (I'm bored ok?) So if you (Spencer) yould direct me to the places you want me to respond to I'd be more than happy to, I just don't feel like going through one of these again :P
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Post Post #635 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 5:03 pm

Post by Leon Dreyfus »

No, Jaime, my gut tells me you're 100% scum.
Sorry, but [b]V/LA[/b] for a bit...
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Post Post #636 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 7:29 pm

Post by Andrew Lemarchand »

Leon Dreyfus wrote:No, Jaime, my gut tells me you're 100% scum.
Stuart was right about Emile and he may have been a day-cop, but that's not enough to convince me 100% that you're right about Jaime being scum. If anything, his switch to Emile vote is his biggest townie credit.
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Post Post #637 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:23 pm

Post by Claude Lefevre »

I am sorry Spencer. As much as I dislike Leon's posts, I do not see why Jaime voting Igor would have necessarily meant a scum-win. Are we even sure how many scums are(were) still alive?

All depends on Gerhard's position, imo. Assume we have 3scum+G, then it is evident that we now have 2 of them alive, and u would be right. But what if we had 2scum+G, and now there is but one? In this case a vote on Igor would have been a risk for Jaime, not a way to easy win.

Also: did Jaime have the hammer? I cannot reconstruct it from the thread (my bad). And if so, was he the only one who could have hammered? If more than one could have, then they are either all clear or your argument is not valid.

I do not know which one of the options (3+G or 2+G) is correct, and we must assume the worst possible scenario, but I would not say that Jaime is cleared by your point.
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Post Post #638 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:58 am

Post by Spencer Remmington »

Given what Jaime's said...if he's mafia, I'm led to conclude there are indeed 3+G. But, that's not very likely given the situation. At any rate, let me check, but I believe at the time Jaime voted Emile over Igor, Igor was at L-1, and the unvote took Igor back to L-2. While it wasn't necessarily a situation where voting Igor would have won the game, staying on Igor would have kept the wagon primed for someone to hammer giving the scum (assumably) victory.

Ah, no, wait, I was wrong. It was even BETTER then that. Andrew unvoted Igor, and RIGHT after that Jaime voted Emile.
Jaime never even voted Igor as far as I can tell.
That in and of itself reflects VERY well on Jaime? Does it clear him? No, I've used the swing vote tell before as scum. But it does a lot to mitigate his scumminess since it was CLEARLY a suboptimal play...

But only if my assumption is right. However, if my assumption isn't correct, we have another day to play with, ne? Odd are, one of Jaime or Leon is scum. Jaime is more likely to be last remaining scum. Leon, however, fits as part of a scum group. So, honestly, we should either lynch Leon today or tomorrow, and if by some stretch of the imagination he flips town, lynch Jaime, quite likely for the win.

What are the flaws in this plan?
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Post Post #639 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 6:52 am

Post by Leon Dreyfus »

Any other time I wouldn't care about that plan and would hammer myself, other than, if we lynch wrong....we lose.

You keep talking up Jaime's vote switch, but one pro-town thing the entire game does not justify the rest of it. I'm calling it a cleverly timed vote jump.

He is either VI, or the more than likely blatant obvious scum.
Sorry, but [b]V/LA[/b] for a bit...
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Post Post #640 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 6:56 am

Post by Spencer Remmington »

Ok, so then, explain to me how Jaime can both have done a "cleverly timed vote switch" (by the way, he was never on Igor, merely accused you), but also been STUPID enough to have thrown away a chance at victory by not pressing the Igor wagon?

So tell me, Leon, is Jaime an idiot or a genius? You can't have it both ways.

And Claude DOES bring up a good point. How is it certain we lose if we lynch wrong today?
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Post Post #641 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:00 am

Post by Leon Dreyfus »

Scum is typically 1/4 of a game. So1/4 of 12= 3. Only one scum is dead, and one indy. Indies do not typically count towards the scum. So, I'm saying there's probably two scum left. If we lynched town today, and town gets killed tonight. We're done for. If we lynch scum today, we'd be set to win it. If we no lynch today, we're back at the same point we are today with relatively no extra information other than PoE.

Also, Spencer, are you familiar with the phrase dumb or scum? If he knows Igor's wagon wasn't going to go, he would switch and bus his partner. To where a tunnel would be formed on his towniness. Not that hard of a concept, and if it is so, you are falling for it as planned.
Sorry, but [b]V/LA[/b] for a bit...
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Post Post #642 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:12 am

Post by Spencer Remmington »

Leon wrote:
Also, Spencer, are you familiar with the phrase dumb or scum? If he knows Igor's wagon wasn't going to go, he would switch and bus his partner. To where a tunnel would be formed on his towniness. Not that hard of a concept, and if it is so, you are falling for it as planned.
It isn't, no, but there's one kink in your works. The Igor wagon wasn't about to die. It was at L-1 and was only slightly slowing. Just a little more pushing would have finished it, honestly. So, why would he suddenly bus his buddy when a perfectly good counter wagon FOR THE WIN was there?
If we no lynch today, we're back at the same point we are today with relatively no extra information other than PoE.
Which could be critical, honestly.
Indies do not typically count towards the scum.
In terms of balance it depends what the indy does.

Alright, so if Jaime is scum, who is he scum with? Honestly, I'm leaning dumb given that swing vote, and I'm leaning scum on you given YOUR voting history on that very wagon. Edward is quite correct that you didn't vote Emile despite "wanting him dead"

Of course, we've rehashed that over and over so I don't really see getting anywhere new with it.
Leon wrote: If we lynched town today, and town gets killed tonight. We're done for.
Obviously. So, why are you pushing to lynch someone who has a decent probability of being town? And decide to mold ALL the evidence to fit what is becoming a desperate view?
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Post Post #643 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:18 am

Post by Andrew Lemarchand »

@Leon - If you believe that there are 2 scum left, then why would JaimeScum not vote Igor? Because Igor wasn't a viable lynch? BS, Igor came very close to being lynched and probably could have if scum pushed for it harder. If there are indeed 2 scum left, I feel pretty confident that Jaime is not one of them.

@Spencer - If Leon is one of the last 2 remaining scum, who do you think his partner would be? I would have said Claude, but I think it highly unlikely that all 3 scum would sit on Igor.
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Post Post #644 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:23 am

Post by Spencer Remmington »

Andrew wrote:

@Spencer - If Leon is one of the last 2 remaining scum, who do you think his partner would be? I would have said Claude, but I think it highly unlikely that all 3 scum would sit on Igor.
It has to be Claude. And remember, getting an Igor lynch was a win. It would not surprise me if all three scum were on that lynch.

I suppose Jaime could be idiot scum that screwed up the entire situation, and Leon is bussing the hell out of him, but that's a rather outside probability, ne?

I do not think Edward or you are scum at this point.
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Post Post #645 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 10:27 am

Post by Andrew Lemarchand »

Spencer wrote:It has to be Claude. And remember, getting an Igor lynch was a win. It would not surprise me if all three scum were on that lynch.
Good point, and Claude did unvote Igor immediately after seeing the votecount that only had him, Leon and Emile voting for Igor followed by his eventual hammer of Emile.
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Post Post #646 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 11:36 am

Post by Jaime Marcelle »

Leon wrote:No, Jaime, my gut tells me you're 100% scum.
Sorry to tell you this but... your gut is wrong. Even supposing I am scumthere is no way right now that I am 100% scum. Also, I REALLY don't like how you're basing your vote mainly on your gut. This is extremely scummy.
Andrew wrote:Stuart was right about Emile and he may have been a day-cop
I beleive stuart was a bp...
Spencer wrote:Odd are, one of Jaime or Leon is scum.
This is one of the flaws of the plan. Unles you're absolutely sure that me and Leon are on opposite teams then we can't safely carry out this plan. I've seen many times where a townie got lynched just because "Well, since they disagree with each other so much they can't possibly be on the same team" where in reality, the town tends to go at each others throats all the time.

The other flaw is, like Leon said, if we lynch wrong we lose. Since we have to assume the worst we are at mylo today and we will be at lylo tomorrow (unless somehow one of the scum dies tonight) meaning that if we lynch town today or tomorrow... town loses.
Spencer wrote:And Claude DOES bring up a good point. How is it certain we lose if we lynch wrong today?
It is not. The way I see it, we have only 1 or 2 scum alive. However, since the town almost always has to assume the worst out of any situations (unless it just doesn't make sense of course :P). Therefore, the town has to assume that we have 2 scum alive right now. Also, like Leon said, the most likely amount of scum alive is 2.
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Post Post #647 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 12:09 pm

Post by Spencer Remmington »

Hey Jaime, uh, good going but uh, thanks for the misrep there. If you haven't noticed I'm STILL saying that we should go for
NO LYNCH
, not lynch one of you today.

SECONDLY, I'm not concluding that you two are different alignments because of your fight, I'm concluding it based on both of your vote histories.

So, it would be REALLY NICE if you could, yanno, READ what I'm saying rather than try to bullshit through the game. You are DAMNED lucky, assuming you are town, that you made that critical vote or I'd quite likely be being led astray by Leon right now, trying to lynch you.

Oh, bonus:
Jaime wrote:
The other flaw is, like Leon said, if we lynch wrong we lose. Since we have to assume the worst we are at mylo today and we will be at lylo tomorrow (unless somehow one of the scum dies tonight) meaning that if we lynch town today or tomorrow... town loses.
You CANNOT BE SCUM with another player unless you are COLOSSALLY retarded and like throwing away wins. You are either lone scum or town. LEON, however, would have to be scum with another player (or alone). Therefore, I conclude that we should no lynch today, lynch Leon tomorrow, and if he flips scum, lynch Claude in endgame, or if he flips town, lynch you in endgame.
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Post Post #648 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:15 pm

Post by Jaime Marcelle »

Whoops, sorry, I misunderstood you there. Anyway, yes, that does seem like a good plan now that you cleared it up (Although it's what it looked like what we were going to anyway :roll: )
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Post Post #649 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 3:29 pm

Post by Leon Dreyfus »

If you're going to do that, then just lynch me today. If you do it tomorrow you lose the game.
Sorry, but [b]V/LA[/b] for a bit...

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