Mafia 107 - Christmas Time Mafia (Game over)

[Annachie]

Basic mistake, and I know I made it on my high school "senior" final exam. 24 years ago sheesh.

There are 361 combinations of Richard and the person each picking from the 19 targets, but 19 of those combinations will have them picking the same target. 19 'sucesses' in 361 combinations, which is the same as 1 chance in 19.

[Tarballs]

11th Vote Count of Day 1

10 - sorasgoof

(DragonsofSummer, curiouskarmadog, TheLonging, diddin, InflatablePie, Parama, EtherealCookie, NavyCherub, pman5595, Nicodemus)

2 - pman5595

(Bogre, sorasgoof)

2 - TheLonging

(Konowa, CCARaven4)

1 - malpascp

(Annachie)

1 - Annachie

(DizzyIzzyB13)

1 - curiouskarmadog

(ready2rock)

3 - Not voting

(malpascp, Fugitive, RichardGHP)


With 20 alive, it takes 11 votes to lynch.

Deadline for this day is January 21st, 2010.

[curiouskarmadog]

unvote,

behind a couple pages, rather do it "today" than tomorrow...will try to update today. Most likely will return the vote, but want to be sure I havent missed anything.

[sorasgoof]

How is this the least bit likely? If you really thought that the mafia RBer had the ability to block Richard's investigation of a random user, you were expecting the mafia to correctly guess Richard's one investigation out of 19! possibilities. That only occurs randomly every 1 out of 361 times. The situation has a 1/361 chance of occuring, but you felt the need to post it as a distinct possibility? How in the world does this help town more than it helps mafia/scumRichard?

I'm pretty sure that's still a 1 in 19 shot to do it once. I was saying that

if

he was roleblocked, (in my definition of the term), we would have to take it with a grain of salt.

I guess all I can do is

claim Vanilla Townie

at this point. You guys won't see sense, so I don't know what else to do. At least you won't lose a doctor or a cop or something.

[EtherealCookie]

Yeah... Common role claim, I still don't believe it, your noobclaim and your speculations do not have you in good light in my eyes.

[Konowa]

Ya'll talk too much.

Catching up from page nine now. I see that sorasgoof is at L-1. Someone mind summarizing why?

[sorasgoof]

Yeah... Common role claim, I still don't believe it, your noobclaim and your speculations do not have you in good light in my eyes.

Well, you must be blind then.

If I'm lynched (pretty much inevitable at this point), I hope I was able to draw out at least a few members of the mafia/make them make mistakes.

Hopefully in my next game I'll be something other than a Vanilla Townie. I've played two games, and I've been a VT both times.

[RichardGHP]

Any last words before the end of the day, sora?

[sorasgoof]

Any last words before the end of the day, sora?

Last words? I guess that I hope the town picks up the pace. Lynching a townie on Day 1 isn't a very good way to start out.

Also, like I said before, I hope I drew out a few members of the mafia. I think a few of the people that voted for me are mafia, including Pman, and possibly Parama, EtheralCookie, and diddin.

Oh, and whoever hammers me. Be wary of whoever that is, too.

[RichardGHP]

Ok, lets lay this out:

You are lynched and flip town: Town is down one vote, but narrows the pool of potential scum to choose from tomorrow.

You are lynched and flip scum: Town is in luck. Killing a scum on Day 1 is a great starting point, and tomorrow, we may be able to determine who your partners were.

Either way, it looks like a good lynch for the town, in the long run. Any thoughts?

[pman5595]

I think a few of the people that voted for me are mafia, including Pman, and possibly Parama, EtheralCookie, and diddin.

Ok sora, that just seems like trying to deflect suspicion on to others instead of proving yourself innocent.

I think of it like this:

Best Case scenario- you're mafia
Worst case scenario- you're a vanilla townie giving the mafia ideas and distracting us from finding scum

also, kind of random, to everyone: my name isn't capitalized >.> not a big deal, but... just fyi

[pman5595]

EBWOP: why am I always the victim of ninjas?

[RichardGHP]

EBWOP: why am I always the victim of ninjas?

Because 4 numbers are a lot of weight to carry. Three letters on the other hand... are quite light and thus allows for more speed.

[sorasgoof]

Ok, lets lay this out:

You are lynched and flip town: Town is down one vote, but narrows the pool of potential scum to choose from tomorrow.

You are lynched and flip scum: Town is in luck. Killing a scum on Day 1 is a great starting point, and tomorrow, we may be able to determine who your partners were.

Either way, it looks like a good lynch for the town, in the long run. Any thoughts?

Wow, you've narrowed the pool by 1. So you're in favor of lynching a townie?

Also, @

p

man, there's not much else I can do at this point. Richard asked for my "last words," so before I die, I want to suspicions to be known.

And as for "distracting" you, that's your fault. Stop focusing on me and try to scum hunt. All I did was speculate on night actions, and everyone jumped all over me.

[sorasgoof]

EBWOP: That bolded letter in my above post is a lowercase p, just for you.

[sorasgoof]

EBWOTP: In my post 588, that should say Also, @pman, there's not much else I can do at this point. Richard asked for my "last words," so before I die, I want my suspicions to be known."

The fifth word from the end should be "my," not "to." I hate typos.

[pman5595]

EBWOP: That bolded letter in my above post is a lowercase p, just for you.

<3

[DizzyIzzyB13]

Question: diddin, DragonsofSummer, InflatablePie, NavyCherub - why so bandwagonwhorish?

[RichardGHP]

Wow, you've narrowed the pool by 1. So you're in favor of lynching a townie?

If it helps us find scum tomorrow, then yes. A VT isn't really worth a lot to the town aside from voting. Cops and doctors (and of course JoaTs ) are what the town really wants to keep. By lynching you, we are able to analyse those on your wagon and determine the scum, and we only lose one vote.

[sorasgoof]

Wow, you've narrowed the pool by 1. So you're in favor of lynching a townie?

If it helps us find scum tomorrow, then yes. A VT isn't really worth a lot to the town aside from voting. Cops and doctors (and of course JoaTs ) are what the town really wants to keep. By lynching you, we are able to analyse those on your wagon and determine the scum, and we only lose one vote.

So you're willingly lynching a townie?

Because I'm at L-2 (I was at L-1), I think you've already gained as much information you're going to get.

If what you're telling me is the sentiment of the entire town, then I guess it isn't so bad. Just don't lose.

[curiouskarmadog]

Ok, got some time, knocking out this read…typing as reading. Going back to about page 18 to make sure it is thorough.

@cks: I do, but I would rather hold off on my thoughts for now.

thats fine, but would like yours comments sooner than later.

Oh, and if your investigation is blocked, we'll really be in a pickle. I'm not sure I'd believe you if you come back with a blocked investigation. That'd be too easy to make up, you know?

whoa whoa whoa...what? Who said anything about a RB? do you know something we dont? If he is blocked, he is blocked and we will deal with it tomorrow. Considering you didnt unvote with this posts leads me to believe you dont even want an attempt to see if he is lying..or see if he is blocked. Welcome to my scum list, bub.

Unvote, vote sorasgoof

this post (and lack of an unvote) screams inside knowledge and fear.

I did unvote, so I don't know what you're talking about, really.

actually you did unvote, I retract my complaint on that front.

Did I really bring up something that no one had thought about? It seemed like a pretty obvious thing to me. I was just saying that he could easily fake a "blocked" investigation to strengthen his assertion that he's a JoaT.

HOLY MAFIA, BATMAN, MY SCUMDAR IS TWITCHING! That last post of yours (before the one quoted) made me quite suspicious indeed.

By posting the previous post of yours, not only are you subliminally suggesting to the mafia how to play their next move, but you also may have ruined tomorrow, since if my investigation is RB'd, we have nothing to go on tomorrow and are back at square one.

interesting comment here, I am curious richard, if he is suggesting how mafia should play, why do you suspect him being mafia? Wouldnt he just tell them how to play during the night? How is comment scummy in that regard?

Also, if the mafia does have a role-blocker, do you really think they wouldn't have blocked someone tonight anyway? How am I scummy for trying to anticipate their actions?

what is scummy is that you mentioned a mafia RB well before it was ever brought up. How do you know the mafia even have one?

And as for someone role-blocking

you

, I actually didn't think of that. I'll admit I made a mistake there.

wait a minute what?

When I said I didn't think of Richard himself being role-blocked, I meant that if someone tries to investigate RICHARD tonight, and whoever that is is blocked, we won't know if he's really a JoaT. Up until then, I was saying that if RICHARD investigates SOMEONE ELSE tonight, and he's blocked, we won't know if he was lying.

Sorry for the confusion.

again what? Why does this not make ANY sense to me?

But until when were you saying what? (ok you explain in 477, but that still doesn’t make any sense)

Yes I am Vanilla Townie. If I was scum, I'd obviously wouldn't claim that because it'd make me look suspicious if I claimed that. Since I'm not scum, I wouldn't claim a power role because I know mafia would kill me the next night. Of course, no one believes me anyways (for good reason, mafia more likely to claim VT, etc.).

I love fucking statements that start off with “if I was mafia…” Curious, if you were mafia, what would you claim then?

--
Wow, I am reading so many newbie statements…newbie excuses…newbie cards….fuck I am even reading newbie statements about newbies. Did not know this game was going to be a newbiefest.

Example?

You're digging your own grave soras, here's some scummy stuff in the last post you made.

1. Claiming noobishness isn't scummy: yes it is, newbishness can be an excuse for scummy actions and makes the players have to debate over whether somebody really is scum of if they're just noobish.

2. If you voted for Richard because you had more information, why didn't you say it in your voting post? Seems more like you were waiting for either a wagon or somebody to call you out so you could look better.

3. Yeah you can defend yourself, but do it with your actions, not making up ad-hoc reasoning after someone finds what you say scummy.

4. Doesn't matter if you were one of the first to vote for pman. It was wagoning because you added no new reasoning to your post, not because you voted the same person as someone else.

this is chalked full of new crap...anyone can point out why?
--

Anyway….I don’t have a problem hammering soras(at this point)..HOWEVER, I would like to hear from the following before this day ends.

I'm pushing my content post until tomorrow. School is resuming for me and I need to stay on top of things, which means I will be a little less active than I have been and won't be on except for weeknights and weekends. Just a heads-up.

And

Yeah... Common role claim, I still don't believe it, your noobclaim and your speculations do not have you in good light in my eyes.

Interesting, what happened to...

I'm pushing my content post until tomorrow. School is resuming for me and I need to stay on top of things, which means I will be a little less active than I have been and won't be on except for weeknights and weekends. Just a heads-up.

Same here.

Was that BS or is it still coming?

AND

Ya'll talk too much.

Catching up from page nine now. I see that sorasgoof is at L-1. Someone mind summarizing why?

I don’t want the day to end and tomorrow someone saying…”oh I didn’t get to get my point in…”

Here is your chance to do it…

--

there are a lot of people dinging the scumdar...but it is hard to tell if they are new, scum, or just suck.

@ longing, who are your top two scum suspects?

[RichardGHP]

Did I really bring up something that no one had thought about? It seemed like a pretty obvious thing to me. I was just saying that he could easily fake a "blocked" investigation to strengthen his assertion that he's a JoaT.

HOLY MAFIA, BATMAN, MY SCUMDAR IS TWITCHING! That last post of yours (before the one quoted) made me quite suspicious indeed.

By posting the previous post of yours, not only are you subliminally suggesting to the mafia how to play their next move, but you also may have ruined tomorrow, since if my investigation is RB'd, we have nothing to go on tomorrow and are back at square one.

interesting comment here, I am curious richard, if he is suggesting how mafia should play, why do you suspect him being mafia? Wouldnt he just tell them how to play during the night? How is comment scummy in that regard?

I may have been exaggerating, but do you not find his (sora's) comment suspicious in any way? I certainly do. If he is scum, he could in theory discuss this with his fellow scum at night. Which leads me to a fork in the road; he could be a newb, or inexperienced as scum, or both. It's hard to tell exactly what's going on with him.

As for the question at hand, I find it suspicious because he brought up an anti-town tactic that the mafia may not have considered.

[InflatablePie]

Question: diddin, DragonsofSummer, InflatablePie, NavyCherub - why so bandwagonwhorish?

I believe I've already said why I voted and unvoted TL and Richard. As for soras, I believe I mentioned why I found him scummy - NA spec, claiming newbisheness, saying he wasn't gonna vote at all early in Day (and seemingly retracting, saying he meant Real Life day, maybe I read wrong), as well as noting it was partly for pressure in 548. He hasn't responded too well in my eyes.

Richard's comment asking sora if he has "any last words" seems off coupled with his lack of vote.

Offtopic: Anyone else have MS go down for a few minutes?

[pman5595]

Offtopic: Anyone else have MS go down for a few minutes?

same here. It said fatal error. I was scared

[curiouskarmadog]

Did I really bring up something that no one had thought about? It seemed like a pretty obvious thing to me. I was just saying that he could easily fake a "blocked" investigation to strengthen his assertion that he's a JoaT.

HOLY MAFIA, BATMAN, MY SCUMDAR IS TWITCHING! That last post of yours (before the one quoted) made me quite suspicious indeed.

By posting the previous post of yours, not only are you subliminally suggesting to the mafia how to play their next move, but you also may have ruined tomorrow, since if my investigation is RB'd, we have nothing to go on tomorrow and are back at square one.

interesting comment here, I am curious richard, if he is suggesting how mafia should play, why do you suspect him being mafia? Wouldnt he just tell them how to play during the night? How is comment scummy in that regard?

I may have been exaggerating, but do you not find his (sora's) comment suspicious in any way? I certainly do. If he is scum, he could in theory discuss this with his fellow scum at night. Which leads me to a fork in the road; he could be a newb, or inexperienced as scum, or both. It's hard to tell exactly what's going on with him.

As for the question at hand, I find it suspicious because he brought up an anti-town tactic that the mafia may not have considered.

of course I do, I was one of the first to vote him for the comment...but it isnt about me...I am asking you and you...your reasonings for thinking the comment is scummy, dont make any sense, I am asking you to explain your line of thinking.