888: X-COM TFTD Mafia: Over!

[Leon Dreyfus]

No lynching actually may be the better option here, even though I really want to lop off Jaime's head.

I'm liking Andrew, Edward and Claude.

No lynch or Jaime today.

[Jaime Marcelle]

With six alive, i would like people to comment on their perception of the benefits and drawbacks of no-lynching. I will do a re-read focussing on Emile's interactions later.

I actually think that not lynching would be the best course of action today. Assuming we have a normal sized mafia (Which is 3 in 12 player games) and one is dead (it doesn't matter if the scum is gerhard or Emile although I'm thinking Emile) and no SK (still along the lines that the other was a SK or that we didn't have a SK to begin with) if we lynch wrong then we lose. From the way I see it, we are in a MYLO situation and should not lynch. Of course, this would all be wrong if something wonky did happen such as there being 2 scum groups and somehow there was only 1 kill every night like Edward described. but please, this should be common sense but I can't stress this enough. If we do end up not lynching and there is a vig or something among us please, PLEASE for the love of god don't shoot.

Anyway, before I vote I want to hear from everyone else first.

[Andrew Lemarchand]

Anyway, why would scum want to kill Igor? I know that he was right about Emile and all (like he said so many times Razz) but I have seen nothing else that would make scum want to kill him. there are a lot better choices. Anyway, that doesn't matter so much right now.

This bothers me a little bit. Speculation over NKs gets us nowhere and this seems like an attempt to appear town without actually doing anything pro-town.

As far as a no lynch goes, I guess that's our smartest choice of action. I'm a little concerned that we could be wrong about the # of scum remaining, but I'm open to hear what others have to say on the subject.

[Jaime Marcelle]

This bothers me a little bit. Speculation over NKs gets us nowhere and this seems like an attempt to appear town without actually doing anything pro-town.

Which is why I said "Anyway, that doesn't matter so much right now"

As far as a no lynch goes, I guess that's our smartest choice of action. I'm a little concerned that we could be wrong about the # of scum remaining, but I'm open to hear what others have to say on the subject.

I agree. The number of scum is really the major thing that might stop us from voting to not lynch. I do think that there are probably only 3 scum however (as is the norm). But think about it, it would be a little maf sided if there was another scum AND a SK or whatever Gerhard was. Anyway, unless anyone has an objection (and tells us a good reason) to lynch someone I will be voting to no lynch tomorrow.

[Igor Schultz]

out of v/la and time to make my bah post... grrrr... have fun with the rest of the game.

mod would you pm my main if you make another x-com game. THX

.

go town and fuck the scum.

[Edward Smilie]

@MOD: The lack of votecounts in this game is making analysing a lot harder than it needs to be, fyi. Can you at least put in end-of-day votecounts?

Sure.

Well, I've done a quick re-read, and the big change is that Leon vaults into my top two, along with Claude, because he's made a big point of talking about how he suspected Emile all along, but NEVER EVER VOTED HIM, nor actually making any real kind of effort to get him lynched. In fact, let's look at the vote pattern from the end of yesterday (and you'll see why I think Jaime town).

At the time of the first votecount, the tally is 3-1 in favor of an Emile lynch:

:
Igor Schultz:1 (Andrew)
Emile Buchard:3 (Igor, Edward, Claude)

Not Voting:4 (Jaime, Emile, Spencer, Leon)

A page later, we have this:

Emile Buchard:2 (Igor, Edward)
Igor Schultz:3 (Andrew, Leon, Claude)

So, the Emile wagon is comfortably leading. Then Leon votes Igor, turning Andrew's lone vote into a wagon, and Claude jumps FROM EMILE-SCUM TO IGOR-TOWN, putting Igor in the lead, 4-2. At this point, it's looking solidly like Igor will be the lynch.

Emile-scum then scents blood, and jumps the Igor wagon, putting him at L-1. Andrew unvotes, then Jaime votes Emile, which completely changes the dynamic of the day. We had a flailing Igor getting more and more emotional and irrational, flailing in other words, but these two actions turn it from a procession into a two guys at L-2 competing wagons scenario.

Claude unvotes, Andrew switches to Emile (yeah, if he's scum, he's awesome) then Claude hammers, leaving Leon on Igor.

Present.

I still dislike Jaime, Igor looks a bit better. Still not a whole lot, so I'm leaving my vote there.

I never have liked Emile, so I wouldn't be sad to see him go today.

This was a quick hit, more will come.

When the chips are down, Leon takes the action most likely to save Emile (wagoning Igor) whilst still saying he suspects Emile. Also, with the revelation about Gerhard, the townie points I'd given Leon for that disappear.

[Claude Lefevre]

people, sorry for the lack of posts. I will post more substance later, but here are my considerations about no lynch.

Assume there is 2 scums left
Not much to say: we risk to be on lylo right now. A no lynch would give us a better odd to lynch the right scum tomorrow.

Assume there is 1 scum left
If we mislynch today, and scum kills tonite, then tomorrow is 4 player lylo. I do not like 4 player lylo's, cuz odds of screw up are 75%...
If we no lynch, and scum kills tonite, tomorrow we are 4 vs 1 and the day after we have a 3 player lylo.

Mathematically, a nl would be a good thing.

But of course good ol' scumhunt is way better: I will have to re-read, but there is for sure stuff we can use, I think (and I could at least name a couple of players who I NOW believe are most likely town).

[Jaime Marcelle]

Like Edward, I am beginning to look at Leon and Claude more (if we were to lynch right now I would prefer leon but w/e). I'm actually beginning to think they may be a scumteam. If we look at the interactions between the two I see that Claude has been softly FoSing Leon for the whole game it seems. On D1 he was accussing Leon of playing it safe and appeared to be soft FoSing him for almost the whole day. On D2 he didn't say much if anything about Leon and on D3 things get interesting. Again he says he FoSes Leon however, heres the thing. He never does anything about it. Never a vote (with the exception of the RVS vote), never a signal he's going to vote, never a signal that he wants Leon lynched etc. And the latest thing he said about Leon was that he's "prolly not scum"

@Claude- Three questions for you: How did you feel about Leon on d2?
How do you feel about Leon now?
What made you change your mind from FoSing him to thinking he's "prolly not scum"?

Looking at Leon's iso to see connections is a little harder. In fact, he only mentioned Claude twice. First, Leon says that Claude is acting a little off and he thinks that he might be scum after his latest post. Next, he says he's liking Claude, no explaination why...

Leon- Where did you begin to change your mind about Claude?
How do you feel about Claude now?
When you said that you were liking claude, why?

[malthusis]

No votecount (no one's voted!) but a few notes:
1.Put in end of day VC's due to Edward's request.

2.I can't technically prod Spencer right now, but I'll give an unoffical prod.

3.My next game (for those who enjoyed this game) will be called Malth's Alternate Reality, packed full of new and complex roles (it will be a Mind Screw game with a little less bastardness). PM me if you want to pre-in!

[Leon Dreyfus]

Right after saying Claude was off, further down my suspicion jumped to Igor.

Claude seems okay to me, nothing outstanding to be honest. Just more neutral.

The second carries to the third. The reason that works is, is well because you are my major suspect. Gut never liked you. Ever.

And, not to be rude, but are you serious Edward? Your post is beyond laughable. You just skidded in your own backtracks. I have been in support of an Emile lynch.

I have been scarce this game, I'll admit that. I guess I'll read more than get back.

Edward gains a nice look for his brake slamming and nailing reverse.

[Claude Lefevre]

@Jaime:

1) You mean what I DID think? Nothing particular, I was FoSing you and then there was the Otto-chaos.
2) I do not know how I feel about Leon, he is not posting much content. I said he was prolly town because he is your opponent and I still got the feeling that you may be scum (plus, your case on him yesterday was ridiculously thin, and still you insisted).
3) FoS'ing him? Always criticized your "place holder" vote (starting from post 435), dude, and I have been FoSing YOU for the whole game LoL

Sidenote: I will reflect on post 544 by Jaime, I am wondering whether there may be something in his lapsus.

[Jaime Marcelle]

The second carries to the third. The reason that works is, is well because you are my major suspect. Gut never liked you. Ever.

The reason you were beginning to like Claude was because I was your main suspect?

I do not know how I feel about Leon, he is not posting much content. I said he was prolly town because he is your opponent and I still got the feeling that you may be scum (plus, your case on him yesterday was ridiculously thin, and still you insisted).

This seems kind of flimsy. This is not what you have been saying. Wouldn't it be better if you had said. "Leon is prolly town if Jaime is scum"?

Also, to all- If we lynched (or somehow a vig or something killed) Claude and he flipped scum what would you do?
Same thing with Leon, if he flipped scum what would you do?
What would you do if they flipped town?
What if I died and flipped town/scum?

Just something to keep convo going since I realized we're almost losing it.

[Andrew Lemarchand]

And, not to be rude, but are you serious Edward? Your post is beyond laughable. You just skidded in your own backtracks. I have been in support of an Emile lynch.

I actually side with Edward on this one. You may have passively been in support of an Emile lynch but you never actively pushed it. You haven't really actively pushed anything this entire game. I know you've had some outside time constraints, but take a stance on somebody. Even now, you say you dislike Jaime and Edward without giving much solid reasoning at all.

@ Jaime - Yeah, it would be a little maf sided with 3 scum and an SK, but it's still a possibility, no? If we're wrong about the 3 of scum and no-lynch and the scum have a successful NK, the game is over. That seems like a huge risk to be taking.

[Claude Lefevre]

Jaime, my attention was never really pointed at Leon and you know it. Read all my posts yesterday and the day before, he was always included in my lists only because he was FoSed by yourself, and I always criticized your choice.

You were my FoS since day 1: this is a clumsy attempt to anticipate any possible move of mine against you.

Now back to your post 544.

OK, I'm back. Leon, why do you still feel the need to point out things like "I was right about Igor"? -_-

It should be a lapsus, as Andrew pointed out, but I am not so sure that Andrew's analysis is correct.

OK, I'm back.

Leon

Igor, why do you still feel the need to point out things like "I was right about

Igor

Emile"? -_-

I think that's what you meant to say.

Dear Jaime, is it a coincidence that Igor was killed a little after and flipped town? Or perhaps you are scum and you knew he was gonna die, you thought twilight was already over and you posted this question before realizing that Igor's alignment was still unknown to us?

[Edward Smilie]

And, not to be rude, but are you serious Edward? Your post is beyond laughable. You just skidded in your own backtracks. I have been in support of an Emile lynch.

I have been scarce this game, I'll admit that. I guess I'll read more than get back.

Edward gains a nice look for his brake slamming and nailing reverse.

Oh wow. Did you suddenly decide to enrol in the Igor school of logic?

Firstly, 'backtracking' is an argument I think I've only ever seen used by scum.

Secondly, could you explain how or where I've backtracked? I've changed my mind on one thing. Your likelihood of being scum. This change has been predicated on three things:

1) The credit you got for attacking Gerhard goes away, now we know that Emile and any potential partner(s) did not know Gerhard was scum

2) The credit you got for opposing the Stuart wagon is greatly diminished because a) We've now found a second scum player on the wagon and b) lots of other, more important shit has happened since then

3) You were not on a scum lynch, despite making favorable noises about it.

Oh btw, to isolate one point:

I have been in support of an Emile lynch.

Exactly my point. You said you were in support of an Emile lynch, but you took the exact action most likely to save his ass. Surely you can see how saying you support someone dying, but never actually doing anything to bring that about, the guy getting lynched in spite of you and flipping scum kinda looks bad?

If that post is a typo, and you meant to post 'never' I can find posts contradicting that.

Basically, your decision to give me 'a nice look' immediately after I announced my suspicion of you... I've never seen a more blatant omgus in my life.

[Jaime Marcelle]

@ Jaime - Yeah, it would be a little maf sided with 3 scum and an SK, but it's still a possibility, no? If we're wrong about the 3 of scum and no-lynch and the scum have a successful NK, the game is over. That seems like a huge risk to be taking.

Even if there were 3 scum and a SK I still think we'd only have 2 scum alive right now. Now let's think about this. If we assume that Emile was scum (which he probably was) then we have 2 scum and a SK. However, Gerhard is also dead and since we know that their not on the same team he must be the sK or another 3rd party role. Now it would be redicuously town sided if we had 3 scum, a SK, and another 3rd party (such as a cult or something as that seems to be the most likely thing that Gerhard was other then a SK from my PoV) so I doubt that.

Dear Jaime, is it a coincidence that Igor was killed a little after and flipped town? Or perhaps you are scum and you knew he was gonna die, you thought twilight was already over and you posted this question before realizing that Igor's alignment was still unknown to us?

Read what you're saying. It's almost impossible for the second to be true. Think about it. If I was scum and knew Igor was going to die then I must have known he was a townie (since I know he's not maf). Now why would I ask Leon why he needs to say he was right if he was wrong about Igor? In fact, Leon never even says anything like "I was right about Igor" in the first place so why would I purposfully ask him why he said it? Also, look at the post made by Igor right before mine. it is kind of obvious I meant to ask Igor so even if I just messed up on the first part putting Leon instead of Igor) why would i ask Igor (a dead person) why he still needs to point out that he was right about himself? This is horrible, horrible logic.

[Claude Lefevre]

@Jaime:

Actually this was a trap. My explanation was weak, illogical and unacceptable, but somehow I got something interesting in your answer. You seem to be still convinced that at the time you posted Igor was already dead, which he wasn't (unless you sent his killing).

Also, excessive reaction to such a ridiculous attack.

FoS: Jaime.

Moreover, I never voted Leon, nor did I include him in my top FoS's (I only mentioned him as #5 in a list, explaining that I did it cuz someone else was FoSing him, and namely Jaime). Why are you trying to alter reality?

V/LA for 24 hours

[Leon Dreyfus]

Edward, I was in support of an Emile lynch. There's no twisting it or turning it, as hard as you may try. My vote was on Igor because he to was acting scummy, and plus I know it was no excuse, but it was the Holidays and I was meaning to once back and post more. Never got to it. Oh well, it's not an excuse.

And as far as OMGUS goes, no, that's such a copout response.

Also, my want of lynching Emile goes back to D1. Far before yours. For all we now you could've bussed, right?

[Jaime Marcelle]

You seem to be still convinced that at the time you posted Igor was already dead, which he wasn't (unless you sent his killing).

I don't see it. Care to explain?

Also, excessive reaction to such a ridiculous attack.

The reason for the excessiveness was to show you how rediculous it really was. Also, I'm not so sure about this whole "trap". It just seems a little fishy. I'm beginning to think it's just scum trying to pass their bad logic off.

Moreover, I never voted Leon, nor did I include him in my top FoS's (I only mentioned him as #5 in a list, explaining that I did it cuz someone else was FoSing him, and namely Jaime). Why are you trying to alter reality?

There's a reason I stopped talking about that in the last post and that was because when I reread through more carefully I saw that you were right. The "I agree with this 100%" part really threw me off.

[Claude Lefevre]

Think what you like, I wanted to test your reaction to a direct accusation, since all the times I confronted you during the game there was something else attention was drawn to.

Your reaction was pretty strong, even "excessive", as you admit.

There is not much to explain: this was not the purpose of my post, but for some reason you seem to be convinced that Igor was already dead as you posted.

why would i ask Igor (a dead person) why he still needs to point out that he was right about himself? This is horrible, horrible logic.

Igor was not a dead person when you posted, and this is either a sign of confusion (nervous scum?) or a new and more interesting lapsus.

Finally, I do not see how my trap was fishy. You can say it was stupid, pointless, even scummy if you think so, but fishy??? explain the adjective, please.

[Edward Smilie]

Leon, calling it your vote OMGUS is not a copout. I don't like the term, but I think it's been a very long time since i saw a purer example of it. That I expressed suspicion of you is literally the only possible explanation of your newfound suspicion of me.

There's no 'backtracking.' There's no bad logic, and there's nothing that doesn't make perfect sense from a town POV (Town players SHOULD always be willing to change their mind based on new evidence). All there is is me saying you are one of my top suspects.

I'm liking Andrew, Edward and Claude.

Pre suspicion of you, you 'like' me.

Edward gains a nice look for his brake slamming and nailing reverse.

Post suspicion of you, I 'get a good look.' What is this 'brake slamming and nailing reverse?' I've started suspecting YOU. That's the only thing that's changed.

[Claude Lefevre]

I would like to know everybody's opinion on Jaime and Spencer. The former is my FoS, as you all know, and the latter has posted so little content that I have almost no idea what I think about him.

About Leon:
Edward's last post makes a very good point, Leon seems to change his mind about other players and his only criterion seems to be "who is more likely not to vote me?". This can be scummy or extremely poor town-play. I would like Leon to explain what he thinks of Edward and what he thinks of me.

I would have expected more questions about my hammer, I would have expected to have a hard time explaining that I wanted to vote before deadline and so on, but almost nothing happened. I have the unpleasant feeling that scum is not attacking me because my behavior is somehow helping them, which forces me to keep my eyes open wide...

Oh, it's not like I am really V/LA, but there's family visiting me, so I apologize in anticipation if I will be slow at posting.

[Edward Smilie]

I'm very confident Jaime is town.

I'm a little worried about Spencer, since that role has basically lurked through the entire game. Perhaps not intentionally, but we've got virtually nothing to go on here, and that ain't good. That's not really someone you want around in potential lylo.

[Andrew Lemarchand]

I would like to know everybody's opinion on Jaime and Spencer. The former is my FoS, as you all know, and the latter has posted so little content that I have almost no idea what I think about him.

Jaime isn't clear in my book, but he's not as high on my suspicion list as he once was. Most of my points in iso 37 still stand, especially now that Emile has flipped scum. However, he could have likely swung the wagon over to Igor without having to bus his possible scumbuddy but he didn't. That was either a great scum move or he's a townie. Another reason I'm not as suspicious of him now is that I'm looking for toward Leon and Claude, especially Leon. As for Spencer, I wish he would show up. If he's scum and has just been skating along....I'll be pissed, but we can't really vote him right now with nothing to go on.

I would have expected more questions about my hammer, I would have expected to have a hard time explaining that I wanted to vote before deadline and so on, but almost nothing happened. I have the unpleasant feeling that scum is not attacking me because my behavior is somehow helping them, which forces me to keep my eyes open wide...

Well, the deadline was coming up quickly and we needed a lynch. It was unlikely that momentum would have switched to any other wagon and Emile wasn't defending himself anyway. I don't see your hammer or the lack of attention it has drawn as big deals.

[Jaime Marcelle]

Igor was not a dead person when you posted, and this is either a sign of confusion (nervous scum?) or a new and more interesting lapsus.

Or it could have been me forgetting that Igor wasn't dead at the time of the post. Actually, this (again) is not scummy because why would scum post that on purpose if they remembered Igor was dead. Again, this is in no way scummy and again, it is horrible, crappy, logic.

Finally, I do not see how my trap was fishy. You can say it was stupid, pointless, even scummy if you think so, but fishy??? explain the adjective, please.

Think about it. You post horrible, crap logic and I reveal it. Now, if you were scum and you realized how bad the logic was you would want to try and pass it off to get the suspicion from it off of you, right? A very easy way to do this would be just to say "I knew it was bad logic. I just wanted to trap you." In this case, fishy means exactly what it says in the dictionary (outside of "Like a fish in form, smell, taste, or the like" since I am assuming bad logic and traps doesn't taste like fish). In this case fishy means questionable, improbable, unlikely, suspicious, etc.

I would like to know everybody's opinion on Jaime and Spencer. The former is my FoS, as you all know, and the latter has posted so little content that I have almost no idea what I think about him.

You all know what I think about me. i think I am a really awesome, sexy, townie (etc.) person. Spencer on the other hand I'm not to sure about. The origonal Spencer posted good posts even though he was actively lurking occasionaly. His replacement posted very few posts (not enough to get a good read on him) and then he just dropped off the face of the Earth. Also, I don't vote people on lurking alone so I get an overall neutral read on him.

I would like Leon to explain what he thinks of Edward and what he thinks of me.

Also, can you do that in detail. Just saying "Overall I think he's town" or even "I think he's scum because he's backtracking" isn't good enough for me. Please tell me why you think the things about them, what makes them scummier or less scummier then other people, and most importantly, GIVE EXAMPLES!

I would have expected more questions about my hammer, I would have expected to have a hard time explaining that I wanted to vote before deadline and so on, but almost nothing happened. I have the unpleasant feeling that scum is not attacking me because my behavior is somehow helping them, which forces me to keep my eyes open wide...

I'm not complaining, the deadline was coming up (granted it was coming up when Otto hammered Stuart too) but the thing that makes yours differant then Otto's was that you hammered scum so yes it could have been a bus but now I'm going to leave the hammer alone unless it becomes important later on.