Flash Mafia: You won!

[mikeburnfire]

I'd be fine with a Snow Bunny lynch, but right now I think AGOTI is our better bet. Or Tajo. Either of those three, really.

[populartajo]

Hi guys.

Should have let you and mod know that I was away for Christmas. So Merry Christmas and such!

So back into the game, reread this, reread that, Elvis claims cop in 710 and here is a dandy analysis of what Ill call the breaking point:

First, worst scenario: Elvisscum claiming cop when rolf is at L-1.

-First idea coming to my mind is elvis-rolf scumteam with carrie preventing rabbit lynch which pretty much was inevitable. Can it happen? Definitely. I tried (and failed) at this in invi4 to save rolf himself for a lynch that interestingly enough ended in mine and in the loss of the whole scumteam.

Balance tells me that there is max 3 scum left here, leaning to 2, so a gambit like this definitely is a high risk-low reward scenario with pretty much the loss for the scumteam most of the times. Simply for the fact that all the chain explodes when only one of the links fails. So I dont see elvisscum saving rolfscum at l-1, and if this is the case, then when all the lynches keep popping out townies and all the nightkills keep popping out more townies and elvis and their investigations miraculously dont die, then voila, we have the scum here.

-Second idea is elvis scum-rolf town interaction that definitely is something to notice if elvis doesnt die near lylo. If elvis is scum, then claiming cop is pretty much suicide as long as people keep dying while she constantly keeps popping out investigations, which, we know, is something scum totally hate.

So tl/dr, elvis is prob town. If she stays alive for 2-3 more days, then she is prob scum.

Second, best scenario: Elvistown claiming cop when rolf is at L-1.

-Elvis cop for some strange reason gets a town result on rolf scum. This scenario is less likely with godfather frost dead, but still plausible with the paraphernalia of roles in flashy arsenal. We could still apply the logic above with rolf. If elvis dies and is indeed a cop, then rolf prob becomes confirmed town. Confirmed townies are pain in scumbags ass. So, if he stays alive for more than he should, then analyse voting patterns, interactions with mafiosos, etc.

Elvis, did the mod tell you what happens in your reveal?

-Elvis and rolf are both town. Pretty much the scenario Im going to work with here (at the moment).

tl/dr, at this moment, the best thing is to assume that elvis is indeed a town cop for the simple fact that trying this gambit as scum is pretty much suicided and loss for the scumteam. Im also going to assume rolf is town, applying pretty much the same logic and the likeliness of having another messup with the investigations that are reduced with a godfather already dead.

[populartajo]

Now for the second part of my post Im going to analyse the reactions to this situation:

We have an anti-elvis anti-rolf group conformed by mbf, poro and subtly but still, snowwhite.

We know of course that it would be something really awesome that all these three are scumbags fighting in desesperation, but things arent that obvious and I totally dont expect all scumbags blatantly supporting each other this early. One thing Im pretty sure is that there are good probs of having at least one scum here.

I think of the three mbf is the less likely to be scum, (see additional reason below), since he is the one fighting hard here and I find here more paranoid of the possible outcomes than trying to discredit elvis claim from a scum pov. Im more suspicious of the people that are supporting his position but staying in the second lines, poro and white here. Ill need to reread to find out who is the prob scum in this trio.

Also, with elvis prob town, then agoti looks even worse in this votecount, the same that makes me think that mbf is prob town:

Vote count

Rayfrost(4): Green Crayons, mikeburnfire, crypto, Porochaz
Mikeburnfire(4): Spyrex, Elvis_knits, A girl on the internet, Pomegranate
Snow_bunny(1): Roflcopter, Rayfrost
A girl on the internet(2): Snow_Bunny
Pomegranate(1): Populartajo
crypto(1): Elvis_knits

Not voting (1): Snow white.

with 13 players, it is 7 to lynch

Yeah, as the majority of people missed it the first time, I strongly suspect the mbf wagon was pushed by a scumbag to counter the frost wagon. With elvis being prob town here and pome and spyrex dead and townies, then agoti becomes very likely scum in this scenario.

Iamusername also has posted in the site numerous times while agoti never posted here.

So Im going to go with

Unvote Vote: Agoti.

[a girl on the internet]

scum would never get so bugged about people callin them town.

Really? That's what makes you think Snow White's town?

yes. snow white's reaction to me thinking she's town is the only reason i think she's town. FOR I AM PARADOXIA, QUEEN OF CIRCULAR REASONING.

Iamusername also has posted in the site numerous times while agoti never posted here.

no, sorry, this is bullshit.

iamausername performed modding duties, and even that was a lot less timely than usual. iamausername has clearly been posting just as little in the one game he is PLAYING over the last few days as i have been posting here. come back when you've done more than a cursory glance at post histories, kthnx.

prozac attacking me for this stinks a lot more, tho, cuz he clearly already has done more than a cursory glance, yet he still chose to plow thru with this crap in an attempt to get me lynched quick before i had a chance to tear apart his lame ass case. cuz he he knows i could if i had the chance. and if i could be bothered. which i can't, fyi. ^_^

Rayfrost(4): Green Crayons, mikeburnfire, crypto, Porochaz
Mikeburnfire(4): Spyrex, Elvis_knits, A girl on the internet, Pomegranate
Snow_bunny(1): Roflcopter, Rayfrost
A girl on the internet(2): Snow_Bunny
Pomegranate(1): Populartajo
crypto(1): Elvis_knits

Not voting (1): Snow white.

with 13 players, it is 7 to lynch

Yeah, as the majority of people missed it the first time, I strongly suspect the mbf wagon was pushed by a scumbag to counter the frost wagon. With elvis being prob town here and pome and spyrex dead and townies, then agoti becomes very likely scum in this scenario.

this is a totally legit reason for thinkin i'm scum tho. just a shame it's wrong.

however, with the added knowledge of my alignment, it's actually a strong argument for mbf-scum. counter wagon to scum appears, but no scum take advantage of it? it's cuz that wagon is scum too. it's totally cool if you gotta lynch me first to trust this, just don't forget it when i'm gone.

if it's not prozac/mbf, i'd put rofl/crypto + elvis as insane cop as most likely. but that scum team would already be screwed, so lol.

unvote, vote mbf

[Porochaz]

Hey AGOTI...

BZZZZZZT!!! WRONG ANSWER

God I know I must be annoying but how hard is it to get one simple post about my case. You make me cry iam, you really do.

[Porochaz]

Hi guys.

Should have let you and mod know that I was away for Christmas. So Merry Christmas and such!

So back into the game, reread this, reread that, Elvis claims cop in 710 and here is a dandy analysis of what Ill call the breaking point:

First, worst scenario: Elvisscum claiming cop when rolf is at L-1.

-First idea coming to my mind is elvis-rolf scumteam with carrie preventing rabbit lynch which pretty much was inevitable. Can it happen? Definitely. I tried (and failed) at this in invi4 to save rolf himself for a lynch that interestingly enough ended in mine and in the loss of the whole scumteam.

Balance tells me that there is max 3 scum left here, leaning to 2, so a gambit like this definitely is a high risk-low reward scenario with pretty much the loss for the scumteam most of the times. Simply for the fact that all the chain explodes when only one of the links fails. So I dont see elvisscum saving rolfscum at l-1, and if this is the case, then when all the lynches keep popping out townies and all the nightkills keep popping out more townies and elvis and their investigations miraculously dont die, then voila, we have the scum here.

-Second idea is elvis scum-rolf town interaction that definitely is something to notice if elvis doesnt die near lylo. If elvis is scum, then claiming cop is pretty much suicide as long as people keep dying while she constantly keeps popping out investigations, which, we know, is something scum totally hate.

So tl/dr, elvis is prob town. If she stays alive for 2-3 more days, then she is prob scum.

Second, best scenario: Elvistown claiming cop when rolf is at L-1.

-Elvis cop for some strange reason gets a town result on rolf scum. This scenario is less likely with godfather frost dead, but still plausible with the paraphernalia of roles in flashy arsenal. We could still apply the logic above with rolf. If elvis dies and is indeed a cop, then rolf prob becomes confirmed town. Confirmed townies are pain in scumbags ass. So, if he stays alive for more than he should, then analyse voting patterns, interactions with mafiosos, etc.

Elvis, did the mod tell you what happens in your reveal?

-Elvis and rolf are both town. Pretty much the scenario Im going to work with here (at the moment).

tl/dr, at this moment, the best thing is to assume that elvis is indeed a town cop for the simple fact that trying this gambit as scum is pretty much suicided and loss for the scumteam. Im also going to assume rolf is town, applying pretty much the same logic and the likeliness of having another messup with the investigations that are reduced with a godfather already dead.

This is true and a good post by tajo whilst I had thought briefly about that, I didnt actually add it up long enough to go well, waitasec, if they are scum they have shot themselves in the foot here. Or if Rofl, Rofl/crypto are scum then elvis has screwed them over. My opinion was always "believable, but need more time to say they are confirmed". However time will dictate that anyway. As I was never intending on voting any of the 3 of them(and hopefully made that clear), it doesn't change much for me. AGOTI is the way to go, Im voting her, 2 others are also. Shes ignoring my case and the fact that there is a lot of suspicion surrounding her, please can we do something about it?

[mikeburnfire]

We have an anti-elvis anti-rolf group conformed by mbf, poro and subtly but still, snowwhite.

I think "anti-elvis anti-rofl" is a bad way of putting it. I'm just keeping the possibility of either of them being scum open, and Poro and White have stated similar.

We know of course that it would be something really awesome that all these three are scumbags fighting in desesperation, but things arent that obvious and I totally dont expect all scumbags blatantly supporting each other this early.

One thing Im pretty sure is that there are good probs of having at least one scum here.

Why do you say that last part? Is it just playing the odds or do you think our behavior is scummy? If you think one of us is scum with AGOTI, which one?

I'm thinking Tajo might be scum with AGOTI. Earlier in the game Tajo went after AGOTI, but then let off. Now that everybody else is going after her he has no choice but join in. Then AGOTI took Tajo's reasoning and used it to feed the fire on my lynch. I don't like it.

Also, I think the odds of Elvis being the only cop in the game who is also insane but also nailed both scum in his first two tries is incredibly unlikely (Less likely than Elvis just being a liar). So I don't like how AGOTI is setting up crypto and ROFL to be the next victim after I turn up town.

[Snow White]

OMGOSH CONTENT!!!!

The hell Tajo? People are more or less persecuting mike because he spoke out against cop (FIRST). Even at that he wasnt outrightly spiting at Elvis "You lie, You lie!!" Everyone has a right to question what they are told and yes there may be scum among us but then Elvis-cop will search us and find out who.

Provided there is a doctor and in which case, i HEAVILY recommend the doctor protect Elvis. Which i stated before. So for my ""subtle discredit"" of Elvis, what would be my motivation as scum for that Tajo? (hypothetically because im town).

Your post looks like a weak attack which scum can later build into a full blown case on me which given the whole RayFrost thing, wont be that hard. Even the way you've phrased

We have an anti-elvis anti-rolf group conformed by mbf, poro and subtly but still, snowwhite.

makes me sound like sly scum jumping on the wagon, for what you tell me because there is no way i would end up lynching a claimed cop as scum or town. Because as scum, what case would have unless your counter claiming? But you are more or less suggesting that when a cop claim comes up we should just sit and swallow it? I wouldnt do that either, but hey, maybe thats just me.

Tajo is scum. No one with half a brain cell should sit back and question nothing. And frankly i felt Mike was carrying a great deal of heat from Rofl so i gave my two cents to his arguement, which if im scum was probably not the wisest thing to do in the face of a claimed cop. I was not discrediting her claim in fact i said i believed it, but i could see where mike was coming from but that i would not even consider Elvis's lynch unless there was a counter claim. - is this rubbishing her claims Tajo?

The one thing AGOTI is right about is im town. But then this is either scum trying to buddy, or you call it as you see it but i dont think that you should be so vehement about someone elses innocence AGOTI. What scares me though, is how calm she seems.

@AGOTI. Could you make a scumlist provided you have the time?

Vote populartajo

The vote on Tajo, is more or less because for nothing else i dont like his "subtle" attack on me or Mike and Poro, i think its an excuse but since a Tajo lynch may not be forthcoming then i may later change my vote. Under the influence of those i generally find pro town.

(Elvis&foracontrastofopinionMike) Provided im still alive tomorrow ill probably be pro-tajo lynch too. (Hows this for taking a stance on things?)

But this post still stands Tajo is scumillicious to me right now. but tajo is there is something i have misunderstood or there is something you would like to refute im subtly right here looking over your iso's and my past thoughts on you.

[elvis_knits]

So I haven't read through everything. Relatives will not leave my house

But I was thinking about mbf, and I don't think I want to lynch him today. I do think his reaction to my claim has been wrong and all his scenarios where I could be scum are flawed. Which makes me suspicious of him being scum and trying to discredit the cop. BUT, it does looked like he was very much against ray all game. So either he bused ray early and hard, or he's town. A buss like that is possible, though less likely. It's basically the only thing keeping me from voting him at this point.

Also, I was thinking maybe he's still mad at me for "trying to kill him" D1. Mike, if you are still mad... get over it!

[mikeburnfire]

I'm pretty much over that. In fact, we have a lot in common now.

AGOTI probably scum

Tajo might be scum

There also is probably scum on the rayfrost wagon. My top pick for bussingscum on rayfrost wagon is snowbunny.

You made this post earlier in the day, and I tend to agree with it. The only difference is that right now I'm seeing a Tajo-AGOTI wagon. Don't forget that Tajo was also on the RayFrost wagon, but kept prolonging his vote.

[Porochaz]

Im seeing an AGOTI and Snow Bunny/Tajo as the scum pair. Unfortunetly I havent seen enough of White to pass judgement. However I am interested in the interaction between them both at the moment. I would like White to post more. I would like AGOTI to stop ignoring me and answer the case against her or claim.

[Snow White]

Well Poro. What is it you would like me to speak of?

[Snow White]

I could make several posts quite like this.

[Snow White]

But they are of very little value.

[Porochaz]

Heh and if you were luckier you would have been in the game where I ranted about that but really at the moment Im waiting for tajo to respond to you and once again I got you and Bunny mixed up... which makes a lot more sense. But you knew that, right?

[elvis_knits]

I'm pretty much over that. In fact, we have a lot in common now.

AGOTI probably scum

Tajo might be scum

There also is probably scum on the rayfrost wagon. My top pick for bussingscum on rayfrost wagon is snowbunny.

You made this post earlier in the day, and I tend to agree with it. The only difference is that right now I'm seeing a Tajo-AGOTI wagon. Don't forget that Tajo was also on the RayFrost wagon, but kept prolonging his vote.

Yeah, I remember tajo did prolong his vote. He also hasn't been a very strong presence all game, which he has a good excuse for, but still makes it more difficult to judge him. I haven't looked at his latest posts this page, I think I need more brainpower to go through them. When I get a minute I'll read them and look over his ISO for the whole game and make some comments.

But yes, my top picks for scum are probably still the same as I said in that quote.

So we probably lynch AGOTI today. I think she'll flip scum. But if she flips town, then we might have to think of changing our plans slightly. Partly might depend on my investigation result. Like if I can get a guilty, I think we lynch that person. If that person flips scum, hooray! If the person flips town, then we lynch rofl, crypto, and maybe even me if there is more scum. I fully understand that if I am insane, and rofl and crypto are scum, that I will look like scum, and I am prepared to be lynched. By that time though I would have brought down 2 scum, and if there's another scum out there, hopefully I can get you that investigation or confirm some innocents. So you'll probably still win after lynching me, even in the event that rofl and crypto are both scum.

I'm not going to vote AGOTI before I give tajo a read though.

[mikeburnfire]

So we probably

lynch AGOTI today.

I think she'll flip scum. But if

she flips town,

then we might have to think of changing our plans slightly. Partly might depend on my investigation result. Like if

I can get a guilty, I think we lynch that person.

If that person flips scum, hooray!

If the person flips town

, then we lynch rofl, crypto, and maybe even me if there is more scum. I fully understand that if I am insane, and rofl and crypto are scum, that I will look like scum, and I am prepared to be lynched. By that time though I would have brought down 2 scum,

Ugh, that's the thing I'm trying to avoid, that very scenario. If we kill AGOTItown today, somebody gets killed at night, you get a guilty, we kill the guilty-but-still-town, somebody gets killed at night, then we are left with a claimed cop, two "innocent" ROFL and crypto, one "guilty" person, and one more.

In this situation, you have been proven to not be a sane cop, with the only other alternatives being insane cop or liar-scum. With 2 scum likely still around, I could be in a situation where I have to choose whether or not to lynch the claimed cop in LyLo phase. No, please.

[elvis_knits]

Hmmm, I didn't game it out in terms of numbers.

So what do we do to avoid that? You could lynch me tomorrow but that won't tell you my sanity. It will tell you that I'm not scum though.

[roflcopter]

we avoid the problem altogether when we lynch mike and he flips scum

[elvis_knits]

You'd need to convince me that mbf would buss ray that hard and that early.

[mikeburnfire]

You could lynch me tomorrow but that won't tell you my sanity. It will tell you that I'm not scum though.

Really? Mykonian said your sanity isn't revealed upon your death? That's unfortunate (but also a clever thing to claim if you are scum).

I really don't want to lynch you at all. I'm hoping to find at least one scum in the next two lynches. If that doesn't happen and we both get to LyLo, then the gloves come off.

@ ROFL
If I flipped town, would you still go after Porochaz?

Likewise, if Porochaz flipped town, would you still go after me?

If neither of us are scum, then would I be correct in assuming you'd go after AGOTI and Tajo?

You'd need to convince me that mbf would buss ray that hard and that early.

Well, to play my own devil's advocate, if I was scum and I knew RayFrost was going to play as shitty as he did, then bussing him would have been a good idea.

[elvis_knits]

Mike, stop making me want to lynch you.

[mikeburnfire]

<3

[roflcopter]

how's this for a reason elvis: by the end of day one the lynch options were clearly pom or mike, and were in the process of being hashed out (by me at least, i believe by more people) when ray swooped in and hammered pom out of the blue, an action that saved mike.

and if you have ever seen ray play any game of mafia, you'd know that he is prime, grade-a bus meat. the guy is always a train wreck and is pretty much guaranteed to get lynched at some point, so why wouldn't scum bus him from the getgo for maximum town cred? it certainly seems to have snowed a lot of people in mike's case.

[elvis_knits]

Hey, that was good, rofl.