Open 175 - Picking Simplicity (Game Over)

[Kreriov]

@Serial - I don't understand. You think SCoug is a scum and got overruled by his scumbuddies in the choice of NK? He wanted to kill you but his buddies killed MSH instead thinking MSH was the SK? I think I get that part. It seems like you are proposing that SpyreX and SCoug are scumbuddies yet you seemed a bit skeptical of my voting for SpyreX and calling out SpyreX for his weak vote on Sabre. I am also not sure what you consider a compromise lynch. I see a circumstantial case against SCoug based on conjecture about post timing and night kills. For me to vote him over two people I really see as scum - Nikanor and SpyreX - would that not be a compromise for me? Would you want me, or anyone else, to vote SCoug as a compromise? Or is it only YOU who does not want to compromise?

[SerialClergyman]

It's not so much that he got overruled, but that the scum group as a whole would decide that killing the SK is more importnat than killing the thorn in their side.

I am still developing my theories. I'm most sure about SCoug. I don't know about Spy, I have trouble reading him. I think it's entirely possible that Spy is town ad others were using his case against MSH to make the decision to kill him.

It also explains why Spy, who has been shooting down almost all of my ideas and theories, readily agreed with my brief case on you yesterday.

However I'm just not sure enough, and I did have a negative read of you yesterday., The fact that you and Spy are going at each other is greatly unnerving and I'm not sure how to read it.

I get that saying no compromise is a bit of a dickish thing to do and I know other people have to compromise in order to get on my wagon but I feel like cashing in some of the credit for being active, scumhunting and coming up with plausible theories. I'm not saying noone else is but the game is pretty stagnant and to be honest I'd be over the moon with even lazy town bandwagon whoever type votes just to get things rolling.

I'm not voting Nikanor today. He is just too flat out likely to be a VT acting like a retard for the hell of it.

I might vote for Spyrex if it caused some action, but I don't know.

This is hard for me as well, and this may seem silly, but it's hard for me because I fucked up Hambargarz's game hard. It's my only loss on the site and I essentially singlehandedly lost it for my team. I haven't played with many of the people from that game since and I get really self-conscious about it. So for me to come here, in front of you and GO ALL OUT TO PUSH A CASE on someone else who was in that game is seriously freaking me out. I would have preferred to push on just about anyone else, but that's the person I'm most sure on and so it goes. So now I've taken the plunge, and I've done the hard yards, I sort of want to see it through. Does that make sense?

[Kreriov]

@Serial - Yes. It is also a contributing factor to my reading you as town. You do get credit for being active, etc. but NOT because of your stellar record.

[SerialClergyman]

I'd point out that literally every other game I've played on the site has been much better and I've changed playstyle significantly (no big PBPA cases you may have noticed) but I totally accept that you've got that meta of me and I also accept that's where I'll be staying for a while.

You also saw me in Scigatt's game though, so you know I've changed fairly significantly, and I picked up on bigmc on D1 there.

[Col.Cathart]

I could get behind the wagon on SCoug, as I suspected him during D2. Also, that flip would help me determine Blastinus's/His replacement's alignment.

That being said, I still would like to see Nikanor lynch more than SCoug. Partially it's a gut thingy, partially the comparison between D2 and D3, but I don't think this time it's typical 'VI VT' behavior.

[SpyreX]

Again my issue with this is so much of it rests on who attempted the kills and I STILL think you have that backwards.

[yabbaguy]

I'm gonna start over and reread the entire 45 pages, and actually take notes this time. I bet I can succeed at doing it far quicker than dana, hohum, etc.

[yabbaguy]

Took me a mere hour and 15 minutes to read 15 pages. I'm falling in love with this game all over again.

It's absolutely thrilling reliving everything all over again: the glorious charge of the 12KeyBlade and Nikanor wagons, Toro's conquest to vanquish WarWound, the ability to relish in scumlists that were made by now confirmed town, and reliving how much of a floundering goddamn idiot I was back in those pages. The interactions that are becoming slowly more and more obvious the further back they are, and I already feel myself making a world of progress in analyzing what I thought were rather complex reactions.

Ohh... so good. I gotta do homework, but I can't wait to get back to this.

[Grimmy]

Apologies. Work got hectic and i have things to deal with tomorrow, so I wont be back until Monday.

Grimmy
still in the game.

[SerialClergyman]

Took me a mere hour and 15 minutes to read 15 pages. I'm falling in love with this game all over again.

It's absolutely thrilling reliving everything all over again: the glorious charge of the 12KeyBlade and Nikanor wagons, Toro's conquest to vanquish WarWound, the ability to relish in scumlists that were made by now confirmed town, and reliving how much of a floundering goddamn idiot I was back in those pages. The interactions that are becoming slowly more and more obvious the further back they are, and I already feel myself making a world of progress in analyzing what I thought were rather complex reactions.

Ohh... so good. I gotta do homework, but I can't wait to get back to this.

Enthusiasm is shit hot. Get it done!

[StrangerCoug]

Now - SCoug is in a tough position. He knows I'm going to come at him, he knows he can't kill me. So what's the first thing he does at the start of the day? Come at me, hard. Straight up cast suspicion on me and try to undermine my case from the get go.

Nice job filling the thread with even more craplogic. For me to be unable to kill you, you'd have to be my scumbuddy. I keep my attackers alive most of the time as scum, but I can and do kill players I perceive as too dangerous to keep around.

[yabbaguy]

All done. I just threw down a lot of things in my notes, but I need to turn them into the circuitry diagram of interactions that I was hoping for (and most likely have).

Prob. won't have a post tomorrow, but sometime over the weekend I will get to it. And I've never broken my posting promises. (...yet)

[skitzer]

Took me a mere hour and 15 minutes to read 15 pages. I'm falling in love with this game all over again.

It's absolutely thrilling reliving everything all over again: the glorious charge of the 12KeyBlade and Nikanor wagons, Toro's conquest to vanquish WarWound, the ability to relish in scumlists that were made by now confirmed town, and reliving how much of a floundering goddamn idiot I was back in those pages. The interactions that are becoming slowly more and more obvious the further back they are, and I already feel myself making a world of progress in analyzing what I thought were rather complex reactions.

Ohh... so good. I gotta do homework, but I can't wait to get back to this.

You actually succeeded in making this sound fun.

Except it sounds like really corny-town.

[yabbaguy]

Poetic voices are corny sometimes.

[Kreriov]

@Serial - I do have to agree with SpyreX. You first make an assumption about who is conducting the various kills and draw conclusions from it. Not necessarily unreasoned, but I think you are finding reasons to fit your theory over developing a theory to cover all the facts. Yes, the idea that two different kill styles come from two different mafia members makes sense, HOWEVER, this is an open game. The killing styles are almost certainly just flavor and in pretty much every game I have read or been in that is not themed, shooting is mafia and other types of kills are Vigs or SKs. You have found a reason use the kill style to implicate SpyreX because he thought MSH was the SK and scum would want to kill the SK, right? But then, wouldn't the scum want to implicate SpyreX which killing MSH would do, especially if MSH WAS the SK? Or really the scum would want to kill the cop so they WOULDN'T kill MSH if they thought him the SK? Is that enough wifom yet to illustrate my point that you are finding reasons to fit a theory?

I think SpyreX (and Nikanor) are scum because of how easily they jumped on a wagon with weak or no reason. (Plus other things, but that is the action that caught my attention.) I am trying to find that acton, that thing that makes me go hmm with Coug and I cannot find really find one. I want you to be able to do the same with SpyreX or Nikanor so we avoid what you rightly do not want to happen again - a compromise lynch.

[skitzer]

yabbaguy: true, true.

I'm excited for your analysis.

[Iguana]

Going to side with SC the former and get on the SC the latter wagon.

unvote
vote StrangerCoug

I would still like to lynch Yabba, but I have run out of convincing time
I would still love to lynch Toro, but cant word that safely
I wouldnt be against a Nik lynch too much

@all non-voters - Vote in your next post or

die

give me a damn good reason not to

die

you know there is no second opiton, just vote.

[StrangerCoug]

Can I have some darn reasoning for my wagon by somebody other than SerialClergyman? I'm being bandwagoned for reasons worse than crap, and I barely see a case on me.

[yabbaguy]

An SCoug lynch would be good for the following list of reasons:

1. Foilist's Wagonning
   -Foil, Coug's former identity, decided to hop late on the 12KB wagon and the Nika wagon, both in somewhat opportunistic fashion. I suspect it's scummy. However, if I'm wrong and Coug flips town, then we can begin to probe Krer and Nikanor, two other people who have racked up enormous amounts of questionability and scumminess.
   
2. Zazie's Lurking
   -ZazieR, another former Coug identity, flaked out after promising a post WHILST POSTING ELSEWHERE. That's scummy.
   
3. Coug's Scumminess
   -StrangerCoug FOS'd skitzer at 890 for crap rationale and voted saber a few posts before, but in a way that just doesn't make sense as pro-town.
4. Iguana's Distancing
   - Iguana is clearly distanced from him. Yet she also rings scummy to me, so a flip could see if pursuing her is worthwhile.
   
5. Grimmy's Defense
   - Grimmy, a suspect who hasn't been looked at much, fired at Serial at post 1030 for rather weak reasoning. I'd be curious to see if he's just misguided or actually is trying to downplay a case as scum. I remember SpyreX pointing out that one of Krer/Grim is scum.

Lynching Kreriov would be good for the following set of reasons:

1. A wagon's only informative if it flips
   - Again, we can go the reverse route and try to flip the person that Foilist (among others) was wagonning and see if he was legitimate or opportunistic. Considering how much activity was around that, I think a lot of information can be drawn from it.
   
2. Antihero was scummy
   - He posted a lot of weird suspicions in his entry post, but few-to-none of them were scummy points, which is inherently scummy scumhunting.
   
3. If Antihero is scum, he was very transparent
   - I have a fleeting suspicion that most if not all of his suspicions were on non-scummy players, which makes me think that the actual scum were given no mention. I think he also buddied with Iguana back when he said "Exactly" to her.
   
4. Kreriov is scummy
   - His hopping onto the SabERwolf wagon come post 866 was rather opportunistic to me. It just sounded like the whole explanation of saber's scum gambit was convoluted and contrived. It's trying to make sense of SpyX's logic in strange ways.

Now I can't necessarily vouch for automatic causalities in every situation, esp. with an SK in the game. However, this is a good basis for trying to determine what information can be found, and to probe for motives.

I think more relation info is to be gained from the SCoug lynch, and also have found his activities to be more scummy as opposed to questionable, so I'm going to opt for that. That and I couldn't really find much on 12KB aside from his awful lurking (maybe SK tell?). A lot of my scum tilts are based on if-then causality, so I'm gonna need a few flips to see where that will take me. I know we're running out of time, but I think I won't need much more of it.

Vote: StrangerCoug

Toro being the SK is the only other SK suspect I have. I haven't seen links to him, but he was also certifiably useless. I modded a game he was Cop in (granted... it was a Mini), and he was definitely less lurky than that, so it feels non-vanilla to me.

@SpyreX: You claimed at one point that one of Grimmy/Kreriov and one of the power lurkers was scum at 994. What was your thought behind that?

@Col.Cathart: At 1104, you claim a Blastinus link could be drawn from Coug's flip. How come?

@Kreriov: I'm looking at the latter paragraph of 1114 here as I write this. Wasn't your reasoning for hopping on the saber wagon practically the same as SpyreX's reasoning? Why were you better reasoned and he was the one actually contriving his evidence?

@Nikanor: Why is Coug scummy?

@Iguana:

I would still love to lynch Toro, but cant word that safely

What does this mean?

[SpyreX]

I'd love to see this as well. This reeks of an apathy lynch from most parties.

[Col.Cathart]

@Col.Cathart: At 1104, you claim a Blastinus link could be drawn from Coug's flip. How come?

Damn, I was digging this thread once again to find those specific posts, only to learn that one is the very second of Scoug, and the second one was already linked by me a couple of pages earlier

Here you have Scoug's first analysis of the game.

And here you have my thoughts about his post.

Basically, I think, that if SCoug is scum, then Blastinus/Danakillsu is probably scum as well.

[StrangerCoug]

I love things I can defend.

Zazie's Lurking

-ZazieR, another former Coug identity, flaked out after promising a post WHILST POSTING ELSEWHERE. That's scummy.

That hurt me as her successor a lot, unfortunately. ZazieR was town in the game I modded, though, and I swear I'm town here, too.

Coug's Scumminess

-StrangerCoug FOS'd skitzer at 890 for crap rationale and voted saber a few posts before, but in a way that just doesn't make sense as pro-town.

Explain how voting someone for encouraging anti-town behavior is "crap rationale". You don't self-vote as town. The end. I'll push this until I die.

Iguana's Distancing

- Iguana is clearly distanced from him. Yet she also rings scummy to me, so a flip could see if pursuing her is worthwhile.

Sensible theory standing in your shoes. Standing in my shoes, Iguana's not saying much, as if she's trying to withhold her opinions about a lot of things.

Grimmy's Defense

- Grimmy, a suspect who hasn't been looked at much, fired at Serial at post 1030 for rather weak reasoning. I'd be curious to see if he's just misguided or actually is trying to downplay a case as scum. I remember SpyreX pointing out that one of Krer/Grim is scum.

Grimmy could have developed his SCler case some more in that post, yes.

[Iguana]

@Iguana:

I would still love to lynch Toro, but cant word that safely

What does this mean?

Even if I find my reasoning, I dont think I can swing it in time, and actually have a better chance of stopping any lynch from happening. Im convinced its the right lynch, but im also convinced its just not happening.

[yabbaguy]

ZazieR was town in the game I modded, though, and I swear I'm town here, too.

Don't care about the former game.

Explain how voting someone for encouraging anti-town behavior is "crap rationale". You don't self-vote as town. The end. I'll push this until I die.

Encouraging it? I don't buy that. Saber was an anti-town bastard, I'll admit, but that doesn't necessarily mean he was scummy for it. Not the rationale you were giving, to me. Lack of understanding for why you're on a wagon shows a disconnect with the game, which makes you scummier than the others on the wagon.

Iguana's not saying much, as if she's trying to withhold her opinions about a lot of things.

I think we're arguing in agreement here on this and the other point.

[StrangerCoug]

Explain how voting someone for encouraging anti-town behavior is "crap rationale". You don't self-vote as town. The end. I'll push this until I die.

Encouraging it? I don't buy that. Saber was an anti-town bastard, I'll admit, but that doesn't necessarily mean he was scummy for it. Not the rationale you were giving, to me. Lack of understanding for why you're on a wagon shows a disconnect with the game, which makes you scummier than the others on the wagon.

I don't get it. Did I change my story after I made this post?

Jesus Christ, saberwolf, you say you're playing to win and you self-vote? Are you suicidal?

Vote: Saberwolf

You also barely address skitzer. All you do is deny that he was encouraging anti-town behavior.