Mini 863 - Space Station Mafia: GAME OVER - EVERYONE'S DEAD

[Hoopla]

If it's true we have two mislynches and aren't actually in lylo right now.

[Hoopla]

Another point that helps the 2:10 theory is I doubt lobstermania would have ended the day without a lynch AND modkilled a town player if this was anything but a 2:10 set-up. That seems like more of a rebalancing act than anything else.

--

I've been pondering the reason why I haven't been nightkilled so far, because I feel like I've been quite pro-town - and my theory is because I'd almost entirely wrote off Messiah from my list of candidates. It sounds wifomy, but I think him keeping me alive was his away to subliminally exert his influence if he knew I'd continue organising lynches and being wrong.

Another great tell I picked up is his extremely detailed case about Sposh that everyone seems to have forgotten about. Then he chose to nightkill him off. This is a scum tactic I've seen used before, because it effectively cleans your 'suspicion slate' and gives you an excuse to go somewhere else the next day without getting blood on your hands from a mislynch.

[milkshake]

I've been pondering the reason why I haven't been nightkilled so far, because I feel like I've been quite pro-town - and my theory is because I'd almost entirely wrote off Messiah from my list of candidates. It sounds wifomy, but I think him keeping me alive was his away to subliminally exert his influence if he knew I'd continue organising lynches and being wrong.

Another great tell I picked up is his extremely detailed case about Sposh that everyone seems to have forgotten about. Then he chose to nightkill him off. This is a scum tactic I've seen used before, because it effectively cleans your 'suspicion slate' and gives you an excuse to go somewhere else the next day without getting blood on your hands from a mislynch.

Good points. Personally I'm still convinced by my original argument though. ^^ But, anyway, it's alot of arguments against Messiah. And actually based on fact! This game makes me happy.

3:9 with just a doctor is RIDICULOUS and not even worth considering. Lobstermania may be a new mod, but he isn't an idiot.

Bonus link! A great MD thread talking about 2:10 games and stats.

At the risk of starting too much of a side conversation, doesn't this thread actually say 3:9 is more towny than 2:10?

[Hoopla]

Erm, not to my knowledge. Town would very rarely win 3:9 games if they were all vanilla. We're talking about 2:10 vanilla set-ups there.

[milkshake]

Oh, so 3/9 is with plenty of PRs. Got it.

[Hoopla]

I have not seen a mini normal run here (with 3 scum) with less than 3 town powerroles.

[Messiah]

A case against me consisting mainly of wifom? Well, that's rather difficult to defend against. If we're buying into the 2:10 theory(which I'm heavily leaning towards at this point) then my not being on hiphop's wagon is an extremly solid point, but the rest is pretty wifom filled.

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Like I said before, I'm leaning heavily towards buying into the theory that we're playing a 2:10 setup; in which case my scumteam pick is certainly obsolete and Almaster is my pick for the remaining scum for the suspicious way he went about hammering hiphop.

[charlatan]

If it's true we have two mislynches and aren't actually in lylo right now.

That would be excellent, and your setup speculation certainly makes sense, though I don't know. I am not a theory master. (In case you didn't notice, I didn't even know that 'popcorn from there' referred to an actual method of claiming.) I guess my point is that regardless of whether or not this is true, everyone should still operate under the assumption that there are two in terms of votes to avoid quickhammering.

I've been pondering the reason why I haven't been nightkilled so far, because I feel like I've been quite pro-town - and my theory is because I'd almost entirely wrote off Messiah from my list of candidates. It sounds wifomy, but I think him keeping me alive was his away to subliminally exert his influence if he knew I'd continue organising lynches and being wrong.

Actually, WIFOMy or not, I thought about this, too. There's nothing illogical about trying to endgame with people who are less likely to suspect you. In my experience, it's not uncommon.

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Hoopla, important question time. I think it's fair to say (correct me if you disagree) that a huge part of your strategy this game has been to aim for scum off of hiphop's Day 1 bandwagon. If hiphop had flipped town rather than scum, would this have changed your approach? If so, how? If not, why not?

[Peabody]

Wow, I didn't realize that this is very possibly a 2 scum setup. Very great insight from Hoopla!

Right now I'm extremely suspicious of Messiah on the account that he was off of the hiphop wagon.

Ps, sorry guys that I haven't been posting very often. I have been pretty busy and will try to post a little more.

If I had to choose someone to vote at this point, it would be either Messiah or Almaster. Almaster is less likely though because he hammered Hiphop.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, important question time. I think it's fair to say (correct me if you disagree) that a huge part of your strategy this game has been to aim for scum off of hiphop's Day 1 bandwagon. If hiphop had flipped town rather than scum, would this have changed your approach? If so, how? If not, why not?

I wouldn't say a huge part - but vote and wagon analysis is certainly one of the most effective ways of catching scum because it's a very visual representation of collective suspicions. It's easy to see what everyone thinks via this mechanic. If hiphop flipped town rather than scum, it completely changes the game. You can formulate theories far better working with confirmed scum than confirmed town.

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There's a paradox in game theory where doing something seemingly damaging to your team's chances can actually improve them. Bussing is the most obvious example of this. It is detrimental losing a team mate, but town knows this and assume scum won't do this. But scum know this and can sometimes exploit this. It's an ever evolving, back-and-forth tug of war. Once something gets identified as pro-town, scum will inevitably try and exploit it.

The thing about this game is though, bussing hiphop (if there is only 2 scum)

does not

have a viable risk/reward scenario, as on Day 1 hiphop's partner does not know if there is an SK or even another scum team. While bussing in a vanilla 2:10 set-up does make sense, scum had no way of knowing it, and gambling on this issue is nonsensicle and

does not

improve their win condition by damaging it.

I find it very difficult to fathom Peabody is hiphop's partner based on this - it doesn't make sense to be on the wagon that early, and then for hiphop counter-bus him back in an attempt to defuse his own wagon. This doesn't have anything to do with their ability to bus, more so the state of the game from a mafia perspective Day 1. When Peabody chased hiphop, he certainly wasn't close to lynch - that honour was still up for grabs. I refuse to believe Peabody is scum.

[charlatan]

The thing about this game is though, bussing hiphop (if there is only 2 scum)

does not

have a viable risk/reward scenario, as on Day 1 hiphop's partner does not know if there is an SK or even another scum team. While bussing in a vanilla 2:10 set-up does make sense, scum had no way of knowing it, and gambling on this issue is nonsensicle and

does not

improve their win condition by damaging it.

I'm actually a bit surprised at how much this answer sways me. You've repeatedly stated that we should be lynching off of that Day 1 wagon, and seemed to place a lot of stock in it. My concern is that, in the event that you're scum who voted hiphop, that's a very safe way to direct attention elsewhere. The more people that have died off of that wagon (now everyone except Messiah), the more I have found it plausible that all of the scum (whether it's just one or two, which I thought was more likely until you posted the thread about 10:2 setups) had been on the original wagon.

So, in a lot of games you see people try to narrow the pool of suspects by limiting their votes to people on or off certain wagons (usually Day 1 wagons), because typically you won't see all scum vote as a block. However, that is exactly what you did as scum in Mini 865, (all scum on the wagon Day 1) in which you guys steamrolled the town in three days. Seems a perfectly viable option for scum to vote as a block these days since, as you said, scum will use town expectations against them. I also believe you're perfectly capable of pulling that sort of thing off, and it made sense to think you might think to do so as scum this time around.

However, as you say, that would be a huge gamble when you don't know whether there's another scum group, a serial killer, etc. The interaction between you and Messiah does still bother me a great deal, and I am still pretty convinced that scum can be found between the two of you.

[Hoopla]

I'm actually a bit surprised at how much this answer sways me. You've repeatedly stated that we should be lynching off of that Day 1 wagon, and seemed to place a lot of stock in it. My concern is that, in the event that you're scum who voted hiphop, that's a very safe way to direct attention elsewhere. The more people that have died off of that wagon (now everyone except Messiah), the more I have found it plausible that all of the scum (whether it's just one or two, which I thought was more likely until you posted the thread about 10:2 setups) had been on the original wagon.

Charlatan, the game is completely different if there is two scum, rather than three. The mentality of a 2-player scumteam is about survival because your partner being lynched (especially Day 1) drastically reduces your chance to win. Scum teams are more likely to bus when they have a third player. And I am really struggling to believe we could possibly be in a 3:9 set-up.

So, in a lot of games you see people try to narrow the pool of suspects by limiting their votes to people on or off certain wagons (usually Day 1 wagons), because typically you won't see all scum vote as a block. However, that is exactly what you did as scum in Mini 865, (all scum on the wagon Day 1) in which you guys steamrolled the town in three days. Seems a perfectly viable option for scum to vote as a block these days since, as you said, scum will use town expectations against them. I also believe you're perfectly capable of pulling that sort of thing off, and it made sense to think you might think to do so as scum this time around.

Yes, voting as a block as scum can be quite effective - in /invitational 4 the five scum all voted in a row on someone's bandwagon (although they did end up losing). Perhaps this tactic is coming into vogue. But like any other tell, once scum start doing it more often than expected town consider it a scumtell and it becomes a bad play for scum again. It's a funny kind of cycle.

Most of my reasoning for this game has been on predicting the patterns of a 3-player scumteam. We now (almost certainly) know this is wrong, which is why I have had to overturn previous reads, because I'm looking for a completely new set of tells.

I don't see how I am a logical choice for hiphop's buddy. Bussing him so hard would be a ridiculous gamble to take - I would almost certainly lose the game if there was an SK or another scum group, which is probably more likely than 2:10 vanilla. It's just a stupid risk that only benefits me in one scenario out of three.

[charlatan]

I don't see how I am a logical choice for hiphop's buddy. Bussing him so hard would be a ridiculous gamble to take - I would almost certainly lose the game if there was an SK or another scum group, which is probably more likely than 2:10 vanilla. It's just a stupid risk that only benefits me in one scenario out of three.

That is largely my point -- I have been thinking of a 3 person scumteam as well, so I'm also re-evaluating. I'd still like to hear your thoughts on Messiah as town in a hypothetical 3-scum setup.

[AlmasterGM]

Charlatan, the game is completely different if there is two scum, rather than three. The mentality of a 2-player scumteam is about survival because your partner being lynched (especially Day 1) drastically reduces your chance to win. Scum teams are more likely to bus when they have a third player. And I am really struggling to believe we could possibly be in a 3:9 set-up.

Meh. In my first newbie I bussed and hammered my partner D1 and won.

[Hoopla]

Charlatan, the game is completely different if there is two scum, rather than three. The mentality of a 2-player scumteam is about survival because your partner being lynched (especially Day 1) drastically reduces your chance to win. Scum teams are more likely to bus when they have a third player. And I am really struggling to believe we could possibly be in a 3:9 set-up.

Meh. In my first newbie I bussed and hammered my partner D1 and won.

2:7 is completely different from 2:10 - especially when you consider the set-up is already known. You cannot know in a closed set-up that it is 2:10 before you bus.

[AlmasterGM]

Charlatan, the game is completely different if there is two scum, rather than three. The mentality of a 2-player scumteam is about survival because your partner being lynched (especially Day 1) drastically reduces your chance to win. Scum teams are more likely to bus when they have a third player. And I am really struggling to believe we could possibly be in a 3:9 set-up.

Meh. In my first newbie I bussed and hammered my partner D1 and won.

2:7 is completely different from 2:10 - especially when you consider the set-up is already known. You cannot know in a closed set-up that it is 2:10 before you bus.

True. So are we lynching Messiah?

[Hoopla]

True. So are we lynching Messiah?

I'm ridiculously tired right now, but yes. I can really not see any other lynch today. I don't want to lynch yet though, because I still have a few more thoughts about this game (and I need to answer charlatan). Goodnight!

[charlatan]

I agree that a Messiah lynch is probably the right choice. I'm also uninterested in a Peabody lynch, and Hoopla and Almaster fall behind Messiah considerably. Still, I'd like to read Hoopla's response, see Messiah get up in the mix a bit more, etc.

Messiah, what about Almaster's hammer was suspicious?

[milkshake]

vote: Messiah

Rah, rah, shish-koom bah.

[Peabody]

Yeah...

I'm down with a Messiah lynch. Lynch him now?

vote Messiah

[Messiah]

charlatan, the way he mentions that he's "liking hiphop less and less by the post" and waited until his lynch was absolutely inevitable to hammer him.

[milkshake]

Lynch him now?

Not just now

. I don't want to lynch yet though, because I still have a few more thoughts about this game (and I need to answer charlatan).

[lobstermania]

Day Five Vote Count #1

- as of post 921

Messiah (2):

milkshake, Peabody

Not Voting (4):

AlmasterGM, charlatan, Hoopla, Messiah



With six alive it takes four votes to lynch.

[Hoopla]

I don't see how I am a logical choice for hiphop's buddy. Bussing him so hard would be a ridiculous gamble to take - I would almost certainly lose the game if there was an SK or another scum group, which is probably more likely than 2:10 vanilla. It's just a stupid risk that only benefits me in one scenario out of three.

That is largely my point -- I have been thinking of a 3 person scumteam as well, so I'm also re-evaluating. I'd still like to hear your thoughts on Messiah as town in a hypothetical 3-scum setup.

My thoughts on this was based on his reaction to wagon - and the way hiphop reacted too. A part of it was also that I doubted that the two players central to the gambit could be scum. Confirmation bias then kicked in, which is something I've been trying to fix in my town game.

[charlatan]

My thoughts on this was based on his reaction to wagon - and the way hiphop reacted too. A part of it was also that I doubted that the two players central to the gambit could be scum. Confirmation bias then kicked in, which is something I've been trying to fix in my town game.

I expected somewhat more, since you were so hesitant to expound upon your read (three sentences doesn't seem that time consuming.) But it's sound logic and not really a concern for me; I agree that Messiah is the right lynch and think we're ready to put this one away.