Mini 857 Disney Movie Mafia 2 - The Classics (Roll Credits)

[semioldguy]

Okay, here is part two. For this post it will be assumed the of the remaining players that one is mafia, three are town and Crazy is SK. Again, a summary will be included at the end.

DAY THREE:

(1) We lynch Crazy. Continue to NIGHT THREE (A)

(2) We lynch Mafia. Continue to DAY FOUR

(3) We lynch town. Continue to NIGHT THREE (B)

(4) We no-lynch, we send town into what was a winnable position into an unwinnable position. Think of a no lynch here as the same as lynching mafia in the 2-2-1 scenario.

NIGHT THREE (A)

, Crazy lynched:

(1) Mafia night kill Jazzmyn/Starbuck/semioldguy. That leaves the next day with 2:1. Kublai Khan shares his target for the night and it becomes between him and one other person. We have one confirmed townie in endgame.

(2) Mafia night kill a Kublai Khan. That leaves the next day with 2:1. Jazzmyn becomes soft-confirmed innocent. We have one soft-confirmed townie in endgame.

(3) No-kill or Jazzmyn blocks night kill. That leaves the next day with 3:1. Kublai Khan shares his target for the night and it becomes between him and one other person by process of elimination. We have two confirmed townies in endgame.

NIGHT THREE (B)

, town lynched.

(1) Scum try to night kill Crazy, see no lynch option for day three. Town is now in unwinnable position.

(2) Scum night kill town. Crazy kills someone next day and wins.

DAY FOUR:

(1) There is no night kill. Town pile onto Crazy and win.

SUMMARY/THOUGHTS:

Killing Crazy is a sure scum hit and gives us at least one confirmed town tomorrow, leaving us a 50/50 shot in endgame. If we shoot for mafia instead, we have a one in four shot of hitting right. I'd take the 50% chance to win over the 25% chance. Doubling our chances by killing Crazy would be better in this scenario.

Had Crazy not claimed, he still would have a decent shot at winning in these scenarios, since he would be an unknown.

I lean toward assuming this setup for two reasons. (1) Town can't currently win in the other setup, so assuming that setup does me no good; and (2) this setup from the game's start would be more balanced. If you think about it, if we swap Neopi's kill with Monkey's (or any town kill) then the town only had one mislynch which caused the town to lose. If town need to expect a perfect game to win that doesn't seem right to me. Yes, Crazy's kills could have hit scum, but as a serial killer that can't be killed at night he increases his chances of winning by aiming for town since town is the only one who can kill him.

Crazy is either lying (which is entirely possible) or the above is our likely setup.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Starbuck (1) - Kublai Khan
Kublai Khan (1) - Starbuck

Not Voting (3) - Jazzmyn, Crazy, semioldguy

[Crazy]

Your ideas are flawed, SOG, because of these two things:

1) You assume everyone else in the game has the same "ethical" notions that you have, and would prefer a slim shot of winning as a group rather than a larger chance of winning with me. The goal of the games on this site is to "play to win," not "play to your win condition."

2) A setup that included only 2 scum is NOT more likely than 3 scum. Adding an SK actually DECREASES the mafia's chances of winning. Think about it - if a standard setup has 3 mafia, and you add an SK that can kill them AND they lose one of their members, doesn't that severely hurt the mafia's chances of winning?

Vote: semioldguy

It's clear what you're doing - you're trying to get the town to lynch me which will lead to a mafia win, because, as you know, there were originally 3 mafia in this game.

[Crazy]

Adding to my point, note the site rule:

Play to win the game.

And I'm telling you, if I'm left at the end with one other person,

that person also wins the game!

Think about it guys, would a pro-town SOG completely disregard a certain way to win, just because he considered in "unethical?" The win condition was PUT INTO THE GAME; that proves that it's a valid way to win!

[semioldguy]

1) You assume everyone else in the game has the same "ethical" notions that you have, and would prefer a slim shot of winning as a group rather than a larger chance of winning with me. The goal of the games on this site is to "play to win," not "play to your win condition."

MY

win condition is the only way I know that I can win. I can't trust that I get to win with you. unless the mod posts your PM's in the opening post or posts another win condition that "Playing to my win condition" is the ONLY verifiable way to "play to win." How else would I be playing to win since I don't know of any other verifiable win condition that is available to me?

2) A setup that included only 2 scum is NOT more likely than 3 scum. Adding an SK actually DECREASES the mafia's chances of winning. Think about it - if a standard setup has 3 mafia, and you add an SK that can kill them AND they lose one of their members, doesn't that severely hurt the mafia's chances of winning?

It's clear what you're doing - you're trying to get the town to lynch me which will lead to a mafia win, because, as you know, there were originally 3 mafia in this game.

9/2/1 is more balanced than 8/3/1. Any game that can lead to a prisoner's dilemma from a single mislynch is bad. It's even worse when town can't possibly win the prisoner's dilemma because of either a serial killer that can't be night killed or scum factions not killing during the same game phase. This game apparently has both.

Overall, most 12 player games that include a serial killer have three scum (I was recently serial killer in a game and looked this up to try getting a better handle on the setup). About 3 of four games with serial killers have 3 instead of 2 scum. I'll take the 1 in 4 shot at a 50% win chance over the 3 out of 4 at a 0% win chance any time. I am playing to win, because hoping it was a 9:2:1 is the only way town can win.

[semioldguy]

Adding to my point, note the site rule:

Play to win the game.

And I'm telling you, if I'm left at the end with one other person,

that person also wins the game!

Think about it guys, would a pro-town SOG completely disregard a certain way to win, just because he considered in "unethical?" The win condition was PUT INTO THE GAME; that proves that it's a valid way to win!

And I'm telling you that win condition cannot be confirmed for me. How is it in any way certain? It is not proven that the win condition was put into the game. Just because you say it is, doesn't make it so. You are not the mod. You are of an opposing faction to the town. Playing to keep you alive directly contradicts my win condition.

[semioldguy]

If there are two scum members, and one of you has an ability to bypass night kills, Crazy can be killed at night. If scum are somehow (extremely unlikely it may be) able to this you shouldn't come forward, but your partner should come forward saying that he/she is scum and that his partner can kill Crazy. Then we lynch you, because you are scum, and your partner kills Crazy tonight. This increases the overall chances to win for both town and scum. It also saves your partner who can kill Crazy from being lynched.

Or if there are two of you, you can just both vote for me, since I don't think Crazy will be moving his vote.

[semioldguy]

By bypass night kills I of course mean the ability ignore such immunities of other players.

[Jazzmyn]

Okay, catching up.

I'm a bit blown away by Crazy's SK claim, as I didn't see that coming at all. I've had a neutral/town read on him all game.

My strongest Mafia suspect remains Starbuck. I've spelled out my case on her previously and nothing she's done since has changed my read on her. If there is only one Mafia left, then her barrages of accusations against everyone and anyone for anything and everything make even more sense for Starbuck as scum than previously thought.

Kublai Khan's claim seems believable for the most part. Monkey was a "limited" watcher and presumably his explanation for the limitation was true (i.e., that he could only watch if we didn't lynch a townie), and since there is a high probability of town lynching town in the early days, that seems a pretty weak role, so it makes sense to me that we could also have a tracker. Brandi didn't seem particularly scummy to me, and she came out pretty quickly on Day 2 voting for Neopi, so that also jives. The only part of Kublai Khan's claim that I don't quite understand is why he would track me last night. If he did, he's right that I didn't go anywhere because I'm a VT with a one-shot doctor ability, and I didn't use that ability last night, but I already said that in the thread, so it would be a pretty safe claim to make if he's scum.

I am somewhat suspicious of semioldguy's Robin Hood claim, because it seems a bit weak, and I was suspicious of him previously because it seemed like he was spelling off Starbuck on pushing the Monkey wagon at the end of Day 1 after Starbuck unvoted Monkey (even though Starbuck kept advocating for Monkey's lynch despite not being on his wagon - very scummy), so I thought the two of them might be scum partners and thought that semioldguy was covering for Starbuck jumping off of the Monkey wagon, but his most recent posts look more townie to me. I haven't worked through the math yet and I'm not sure that I can as math is not my forte (but I'll try) and I don't know enough about game setups to know how mods balance the games, but his recent posts make sense upon my first read of them (unless there are still two Mafia, in which case he could just be trying to get the town to think otherwise in order to force a Mafia win).

Argh.

I'm not going to vote yet because we have lots of time and I really have to think this through some more, and read through things again more closely. But I still think Starbuck is scum.

Regards,
Jazz

[Starbuck]

You realize that you've been tunneling on me all game. There's no way that anyone else can be scum other than me according to you.

How can I be more at fault for Monkey's lynch at the end of the day than the people who were still on his train? How in the hell does that make sense at all?

FOS: Jazzmyn

[Crazy]

For now, I'm going to assume Starbuck is town. She has a decent fitting flavor claim, she was on the Neopi wagon, and if she was scum, she would have had to claim Vanilla Townie before mass-claim, which I consider a very risky gambit, since most vanilla claims are just lynched. BAM!

That leaves the possible scumteams as:

SOG/Jazz - If this was true, then they didn't take a risk by trying to quicklynch KK or Starbuck. It's possible, but somewhat unlikely.

SOG/KK - SOG did seem to attack KK, but never voted for him, and instead switched his focus to me. Also, note how SOG seemed waiting for Jazz to post before he voted. He even said "Consider me voting for KK." Perhaps he was waiting to see if Jazz would vote for Starbuck and enable him to quickhammer?

KK/Jazz - If KK and Jazz were scum together, then I can't imagine why Jazz didn't side with SOG against me. Thus, this seems to be the least likely pairing of these three possibilities.

So I'm thinking it's SOG/KK, with SOG/Jazz as the next likely possibility. Obviously, I'm keeping my vote on SOG.

[Crazy]

And I'm not going to entertain the point that there were only 2 mafia at the start of the game. It's absurd to think the mafia could both be killed before Night 1. 2 mafia don't possibly have a chance in a setup with a Day-SK and 4 or 5 pro-town power roles.

[semioldguy]

(1) Kublai Khan hasn't responded to any of my questions or even posted in thread since then. My stance on him is still the same as he has done nothing to change that since my post.

(2) All the power roles in this game are weak power roles. If we are speculating based on setup, the previous Disney game had stronger power roles for town and Mafia had a third member that was unknown. So your speculation here is that town are overall weaker and mafia were made stronger?

(3) I find it odd how three people are currently being voted and no one is getting hammered. This is a point against a three man scum team in my mind.

[Jazzmyn]

For now, I'm going to assume Starbuck is town. She has a decent fitting flavor claim, she was on the Neopi wagon, and if she was scum, she would have had to claim Vanilla Townie before mass-claim, which I consider a very risky gambit, since most vanilla claims are just lynched. BAM!

I disagree with assuming that Starbuck is town, because I still think she's scum.

On October 11, Starbuck claimed VT for no apparent reason at L-3. She made her claim at 12:37 a.m, saying,

So it's time to claim.

I am Buzz Lightyear from Toy Story, Vanilla Townie.

Then, one minute later at 12:38, she said,

Oh dammit, we need 7 to lynch, not 5.

I'm retarded.

So, okay, I could probably believe that Starbuck made an honest mistake and claimed at L-3 because she thought it was L-1 and thought that it took only 5 to lynch rather than 7, despite the vote count being posted just above her claim post, making it very obvious that this is a 12 player game, but I find it

exceedingly

difficult to believe that she could make the same "honest mistake" again, later the

very same day

, after all of that.

Yet, later the same day, at 2:24 p.m., she says,

I would hammer myself to move the game along if I was scum. Since I'm not scum, I'm not going to hammer myself.

And 17 minutes later at 2:41 p.m., she purports to self-hammer, when she's still at L-3, just as she was when she claimed a few hours earlier, and again she purports to have just realized that it would take 7 to lynch, not 5.

So, when she then says,

I keep thinking it's 5 to lynch instead of 7.

/sigh

I fail.

I'm sorry, I just don't buy it.

Previously, I thought that she was scum trying to self-hammer. Now, looking back, I think it more likely that she's scum who was just pretending to do so, looking for "frustrated townie" sympathy.

If the mafia is a 3-scum team, I can easily see why Starbuck would be on the Neopi wagon. Neopi replaced fuzzylightning (who barely participated in the game), and Neopi was even less helpful to scumStarbuck than fuzzy, so I can certainly see some bussing going on there, especially since fuzzy left the game (October 11, 1207 p.m.) right in the midst of Starbuck's (fake)claim and Starbuck's fake-hammer.

That leaves the possible scumteams as:
SOG/Jazz - If this was true, then they didn't take a risk by trying to quicklynch KK or Starbuck. It's possible, but somewhat unlikely.

SOG/KK - SOG did seem to attack KK, but never voted for him, and instead switched his focus to me. Also, note how SOG seemed waiting for Jazz to post before he voted. He even said "Consider me voting for KK." Perhaps he was waiting to see if Jazz would vote for Starbuck and enable him to quickhammer?

KK/Jazz - If KK and Jazz were scum together, then I can't imagine why Jazz didn't side with SOG against me. Thus, this seems to be the least likely pairing of these three possibilities.

So I'm thinking it's SOG/KK, with SOG/Jazz as the next likely possibility. Obviously, I'm keeping my vote on SOG.

I see the logic there, but I think that by excluding Starbuck from your thought processes, you are missing things. And, you're scum, of course, so I can't help but think that you're doing so on purpose.

If there is a three-Mafia team, then since there is no reason to disbelieve your scum SK claim, I see the possible Mafia teams as Starbuck/SOG, Starbuck/KK, or SOG/KK.

But if it's a two Mafia scenario instead of a three Mafia scenario, as SOG suggests, then that all changes. I'm going to have to think about this some more.

Regards,
Jazz

[semioldguy]

I am not suggesting that it is a two man scum team, merely proposing and hoping for that possibility. I think the chances of it being a three man scum team are greater, I don't disagree with Crazy on that. The statistics on site lean toward three instead of two when a serial killer is present, but since that situation doesn't allow me to win I would much rather entertain it being only two scum (as I mention/discuss in post 1279).

Two man scum teams do occur in minis with a serial killer. I think Crazy is being foolish to discount this (and in reality he probably doesn't discount it, but him supporting that possibility in any amount clearly hinders his own chances to win). If Crazy assumes a three man scum team, then a scum lynch today all but ensures his own victory, so of course he is going to want to lead everyone to believe that. I did too when I was revealed as a serial killer.

[Crazy]

If I thought there was a decent chance that there would be a 2-man scum-team, I wouldn't have claimed.

I see the logic there, but I think that by excluding Starbuck from your thought processes, you are missing things. And, you're scum, of course, so I can't help but think that you're doing so on purpose.

Why would I be doing that? I lose if mafia isn't lynched today. I'm excluding Starbuck because I think she's town.

Honestly, I don't think Starbuck-scum would try to claim Vanilla Townie before a mass-claim. Have you ever seen a game where scum didn't claim a power role if they were forced to claim before mass-claim? (discounting any case where it wasn't viable because of an open setup or something?)

[Kublai Khan]

Sorry everyone, my home computer seems to have finally bitten the dust. So I'm a little V/LA at the moment (I'm borowing an accursed laptop to finish this game).

@Starbuck: Good job not explaining your positions on anything.

@semioldguy: Sorry, I didn't notice your post to me. My 1267 written and posted as I bolting out the door so I never noticed your comment.

I tracked Jazzmyn over Starbuck because her last post of Day 2 was one of the scummiest posts I've ever seen while Starbuck only flirts that edge between bad townie and scum. I don't see an inconclusive tracking result as being an affirmation of innocence. A scum team with two goons could have easily had the non-Jazzmyn member send the kill. The fact that seem claiming something that fit with my results

before I posted my results

means that she's either a very, very lucky scum. Or she is what she says she is. The latter being most likely at this juncture in the game.

Honestly, I don't think Starbuck-scum would try to claim Vanilla Townie before a mass-claim. Have you ever seen a game where scum didn't claim a power role if they were forced to claim before mass-claim? (discounting any case where it wasn't viable because of an open setup or something?)

Starbuck was at a game situation where she was forced to claim (i.e. she was never at L-1). so let's break it down.

• Scum that claim VT at L-1 are generally lynched.
  
• Scum that claim PR at L-1 are generally later lynched as they are locked into a clim that doesn't work/make sense later on in game.
  
• Scum that claim VT when
  not
  at L-1 generally aren't lynched and aren't locked into a claim that they have to later justify.

Ergo, Starbuck is scum.

[Crazy]

KK, people that claim Vanilla Townie Day 1 are still lynched far more often than people who claim power roles. The only reason Monkey was lynched instead was because his role was ridiculously weak so it really didn't make a difference.

I don't see myself voting for Starbuck under any condition, really. How you and Jazz expect to get a lynch on her without my vote is beyond me.

[Kublai Khan]

KK, people that claim Vanilla Townie Day 1 are still lynched far more often than people who claim power roles. The only reason Monkey was lynched instead was because his role was ridiculously weak so it really didn't make a difference.

When someone claims VT on Day 1 at L-1, then only one person has to decide that they hate the claim and hammer. When someone claims VT on Day 1 at L-3, then other players (either town or scum) are reluctant to add the last few votes.

On the other hand if scum claims VT early on Day 1, then is followed by a ridiculously bad over-powered claim later on that same day, then scum skates effortlessly to LYLO.

I don't see myself voting for Starbuck under any condition, really. How you and Jazz expect to get a lynch on her without my vote is beyond me.

Then that makes me sad because I'm sure she's scum.

Right now, I'll admit that if you make me choose between Jazzmyn and semioldguy, then I don't know. semioldguy's analysis of all the possible outcomes are great, however his conclusions are bleak at best and crap at worst.

Specifically his conclusion that he can't trust Crazy to be telling the truth about his win condition is crap. Take Day Four (B) (3-scum scenario)... If Crazy helps town lynch scum, then day-kills scum. We've seen that Day-killing doesn't end the day. So who wins between the townie and the SK? Whoever votes first? That's pretty unfair to those with time considerations. The best way to resolve that is to allow the SK to win with someone (plus it makes sense flavor-wise).

I know I'm gaming the mod a little, but I think it's more likely for Crazy to have the win condition that he stated then for there to be a 2 person mafia group.

So Crazy's right: we need to lynch mafia today. It's likely that Crazy will day-kill town tomorrow (Day Four (B) (3-scum scenario)) to give himself the best odds for winning. So the remaining townie can either win with Crazy (50% chance of town), or hope that Crazy fucks up and kills mafia (100% chance of town winning). Much better odds than semioldguy's 2-scum theory.

[semioldguy]

No, Crazy won't day kill tomorrow since he wins anyway if he doesn't day kill as long as we hit mafia today. He can lose if he does day kill. Why would he risk losing over a sure thing?

[Kublai Khan]

No, Crazy won't day kill tomorrow since he wins anyway if he doesn't day kill as long as we hit mafia today. He can lose if he does day kill. Why would he risk losing over a sure thing?

Hmm... True. Still, I'll take the 50% chance of winning with Crazy by lynching mafia today. Instead of gambling on the number of scum being lower than what seems prudent. Seems to be the only way I can win this game.

[Jazzmyn]

Why would I be doing that? I lose if mafia isn't lynched today.

Right. I hadn't really thought that through, I guess, but you're quite right. You have as much to lose as the town today, and we really have to hit Mafia.

That leaves the possible scumteams as:

SOG/Jazz - If this was true, then they didn't take a risk by trying to quicklynch KK or Starbuck. It's possible, but somewhat unlikely.

SOG/KK - SOG did seem to attack KK, but never voted for him, and instead switched his focus to me. Also, note how SOG seemed waiting for Jazz to post before he voted. He even said "Consider me voting for KK." Perhaps he was waiting to see if Jazz would vote for Starbuck and enable him to quickhammer?

KK/Jazz - If KK and Jazz were scum together, then I can't imagine why Jazz didn't side with SOG against me. Thus, this seems to be the least likely pairing of these three possibilities.

So I'm thinking it's SOG/KK, with SOG/Jazz as the next likely possibility. Obviously, I'm keeping my vote on SOG.

I see the possible Mafia teams as Starbuck/SOG, Starbuck/KK, or SOG/KK.

We have some convergence here, in that we both think that the remaining scum team could be SOG/KK. I still think Starbuck is more likely to be Mafia than anyone, but we do at least have some convergence, and since you've indicated that you will not vote Starbuck in any circumstances, and the common denominator is SOG, I'm going to go with that.

Vote: semioldguy

If I'm right about Starbuck being Mafia, she won't hammer scum-semioldguy, and if I'm wrong about Starbuck and the remaining Mafia is KK, he won't hammer scum-semioldguy.


Regards,
Jazz

[Kublai Khan]

vote: semioldguy

Let's see what happens...

[LlamaFluff]

End of day three VC

semioldguy (3) - Crazy, Jazzmyn, Kublai Khan
Kublai Khan (1) - Starbuck

Not Voting (1) - semioldguy

[LlamaFluff]

The lynch was decided, as the last vote was cast the man in the front of the room started to look increasingly uncomfortable. No one even seemed to notice him leave the room as three of you worked together to rid to world of another character.

As semioldguy died, something that many before never seemed to be able to accomplish, Crazy sat thinking to himself of who he could get rid of tomorrow, he even knew who everyone was now. This was going to be far too easy. He was so preoccupied with his plans that he never even saw the death of Starbuck. He almost never saw his own coming either

semioldguy (Robin from Robin Hood) - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day Three

Starbuck (Buzz Lightyear from Toy Story) - Vanilla Townie - Endgamed

Crazy (Walt Disney from Real Life) - Serial Erasist - Endgamed

Jazzmyn (Baloo from The Jungle Book) - Mafia Roleblocker - Survives and Wins
Kublai Khan (Copper from The Fox and the Hound) - Mafia Scent Sniffer - Survives and Wins