Mini 878: Nouns Mafia - Da game is ovah!

[Iecerint]

I am not the SK and I targeted nobody last night. That is regardless of the other two alignments I could be.

O_o

elvis&ML -- Remind me of why SC is the SK and not Budja? It's the bulletproof claim + Percy's behavior toward him today, right? Anything else? I remember being quite convinced.

[MacavityLock]

elvis&ML -- Remind me of why SC is the SK and not Budja? It's the bulletproof claim + Percy's behavior toward him today, right? Anything else? I remember being quite convinced.

From my perspective, it's mostly the BP claim. However, before that I'd been pretty solid in my SC & Percy as maf-buddies read. Now that SC may no longer be BP (by nature of the elvis-RB), I'm re-having second thoughts.

[Percy]

ISO of Budja:

You [SC] are so obviously the SK it hurts.
Percy's 815 is very good posting.

For reference, my post 815 was where I basically said SC's claim was crap.

(I did not come to the conclusion that he was the SK (and still haven't), but I think his play throughout the game has been poor, his attempt to appear like an oblivious townie has been overly forceful, and his claim is almost certainly a scum fakeclaim.)

I do agree EK being roleblocked -> Percy scum and/or SC non-BP scum.
Either way, SC is still likely scum.

I asked why he thought SC was the SK, and this was the response:

I believe he is bulletproof and a bullet-proof SK makes sense. I've never seen bullet-proof scum before. Not that I'll be upset if he is mafia.

I don't know why he thinks SC is bulletproof, and it especially clashes with what he said before about an RBer.

by elimination, SC and Percy are our SK and remaining scum.

As I've already pointed out, scum would have a good motivation to play down the number of remaining scum. 2 mafia and 1 SK in a game with a vig, bomb and doc is extremely improbable, and shows that he's not interested in breaking the setup - just in getting one of the other guys lynched.

2. I didn't consider the 3 scum, sk possibility. If we have a third scum now, I would guess Iec.
So you can ignore what I said before.

Ignore what? Which parts? He's had scattershot opinions from the beginning of today, so I'd like some explanation of Budja's current read on the situation.

Overall, I think (independent of claiming) that Budja's play today has been scummiest. I get the strong gut feeling that this is endgame scum play.

---

Percy, your 815 includes the following:

I am willing to claim whenever elvis wants me to. I don't buy SC's claim (bulletproof townie in a game with a bomb? No attempt to draw the NK? His noun matching his power perfectly? This is a scum fakeclaim, guys), his hammer of Seol is scummy as hell, and I think he should be lynched as soon as we're done claiming, barring some massive inconsistency in the claims.

So, are you maf looking for an easy win by lynching SC-SK?

No.

Percy, you have indicated who you think is scum. Who specifically do you think should be lynched and why?

I don't think you should be lynched. I think you're the mafia nouncop, and so you're scum with either SC or Budja. Konowa's absence may colour this read of mine, but looking at you in ISO I find it much more likely that you're scum with Budja. Budja's attempt to downplay the existence of a mafia RB lends to this interpretation as well. Right now, I think Budja should be lynched. I think that Iecerint and SC will have no choice but to kill each other tonight, and if they don't, then we can lynch the survivors the next day. If SC is in fact BP SK, then he'll survive the night but we can lynch him tomorrow.

However, it's really hot here and I'm not devoting enough time to this game to have a proper go of it. I'll think about it some more and get back to you, but right now I think the lynch is Budja.

I think normally a person would assume I was not RBed if they thought Iecerint was RBed.

You thought you might have been roleblocked and were asking the mod. I was thinking about a counterclaim, not the hypothesis that there was more than one RB, because I thought his claim smelt off.

I'm thinking it is more likely that Percy is the scum trying to discredit the cop. Things are SO much less complicated that way. Every scenario where Iecerint is scum is very complicated and relies on a number of odd and complicated choices made by Iecerint.

The only odd choice I can think of is claiming to be RBed. Are there more?
And I don't think it makes things any less complicated; as I've said before, scum nouncop makes a lot more sense in this setup than town nouncop.

The vig is weak, so the SK gets powered up to compensate? What the hell are you smoking?

The vig is not weak - it's different, and I'd say a stronger role, than your standard vig.

However, before that I'd been pretty solid in my SC & Percy as maf-buddies read.

Is this from your read of SC's "potential chainsaw" (though iirc you thought my response to that event was pretty town) and my linking SpyreX and SC in twilight because I didn't like SpyreX's hammer (I thought they were both scum and SpyreX had been covering pretty hard for SC)? If there's more, I can't see it.

[StrangerCoug]

The vig is not weak - it's different, and I'd say a stronger role, than your standard vig.

Tell me how that doesn't contradict this:

Finally, I wouldn't put it past the mod to include a 1-shot roleblock on the SK role, given your weakness, elvis.

[Percy]

It's true that "RB = lost powers" is a weakness in her vig power palette.

But imagine if she had vigged Seol - in a normal game, there would be a dead doc, but in this one, she'd now be the doc.

That's why I say it's different, but in the end stronger.

Do I seriously think the SK has a 1-shot RB? I have seen something like it, but in the end I think the explanation is probably much simpler.

[elvis_knits]

You've got me going with a lot of that, Percy. However, I noticed something odd.

I don't think you should be lynched. I think you're the mafia nouncop, and so you're scum with either SC or Budja. Konowa's absence may colour this read of mine, but looking at you in ISO I find it much more likely that you're scum with Budja. Budja's attempt to downplay the existence of a mafia RB lends to this interpretation as well. Right now, I think Budja should be lynched. I think that Iecerint and SC will have no choice but to kill each other tonight, and if they don't, then we can lynch the survivors the next day. If SC is in fact BP SK, then he'll survive the night but we can lynch him tomorrow.

Why are you not factoring in my redirect, or more importantly, your own bus drive?

Night actions are a huge part of the plan at this point, but you're just going to hope the scum shoot each other?

Fact that you're not thinking about even your own night action makes me wonder if you really have the night action you've claimed.

[Percy]

I know what I'm going to be using my power on: switching you and someone else. Not going to say who for obvious reasons. Your redirect is also very useful, but it too relies on your discretion. If we make it known that one player will be targetting another player, the scum or SK (assuming there are both still around after this lynch) can exploit that.

I've tried to crack a way to do this well with public knowledge of our actions, but I can always think of a workaround for the scum. I'll put more thought into it, though. The best plan I've come up with so far is to get you to direct whoever you think is SK to whoever you think is scum, but if you pick wrong then we might have screwed ourselves. Effectively we need to crack the game today - know who each of the scum are, one for lynching and two for the redirection (assuming 2 scum 1 SK, which I am given the known PRs) and be confident in that. If we can do that with scumhunting, we might be able to have that confidence, and it will be obvious who you should target.

If there are better ideas, i'd love to hear them.

[elvis_knits]

I'm going back and reading stuff about boxman, and everyone's opinions on him.

I'm not sure what it all means. I'm not sure it will yield anything definitively.

Percy's ISO5 seems important because it calls Konowa town for his treatment of boxman/netopalis. (By this time it was actually pretty late D1 and Konowa had switched to voting boxman). Percy attacks the people voting Net, specifically Iecerint, and says the Net wagon sucks. Which is all good, but he still fails to vote boxman. And the way he is calling Konowa town is sort of suspicious. Yeah Konowa had changed his vote to boxman, but he had been voting Net for a long time and stoking the fires of nethate for a long long time, and Percy fails to mention it.

Percy, can you tell me why you never vote boxman, and preferred to vote Iecerint?

Can you explain this town read on Konowa? It seems like you ignore all of Konowa's many attacks on Net, and just pick on the one part where he switches to voting boxman. I think the main problem you had on Iecerint had to do with him pushing Net, and Konowa was doing the same thing for much of the day. So, please explain why you didn't mention this about Konowa.

(This is not to say that Percy had the only suspicious points when it came to boxman. Iecerint pushed Net all day, and yes, it was suspicious. I'm still trying to figure out who seemed most suspicious when it came to boxman, and I think I will have to read everyone's ISOs and pull quotes. I'll try not to be long-winded though).

[MacavityLock]

Percy, your 815 includes the following:

I am willing to claim whenever elvis wants me to. I don't buy SC's claim (bulletproof townie in a game with a bomb? No attempt to draw the NK? His noun matching his power perfectly? This is a scum fakeclaim, guys), his hammer of Seol is scummy as hell, and I think he should be lynched as soon as we're done claiming, barring some massive inconsistency in the claims.

So, are you maf looking for an easy win by lynching SC-SK?

No.

I was looking for something more, like why you didn't acknowledge my point about reasons we need to specifically target our lynch today.

However, before that I'd been pretty solid in my SC & Percy as maf-buddies read.

Is this from your read of SC's "potential chainsaw" (though iirc you thought my response to that event was pretty town) and my linking SpyreX and SC in twilight because I didn't like SpyreX's hammer (I thought they were both scum and SpyreX had been covering pretty hard for SC)? If there's more, I can't see it.

It has to do with the chainsaw, your faux-twilight post, and the way both of you acted with regards to Iec.

[Iecerint]

The best plan I've come up with so far is to get you to direct whoever you think is SK to whoever you think is scum, but if you pick wrong then we might have screwed ourselves. Effectively we need to crack the game today - know who each of the scum are, one for lynching and two for the redirection (assuming 2 scum 1 SK, which I am given the known PRs) and be confident in that. If we can do that with scumhunting, we might be able to have that confidence, and it will be obvious who you should target.

Brilliant plan. I wonder where you heard that one.

[Iecerint]

Elvis, I've heard that successful vigging is what led to you to adopt BM's skillset (NK + redirect). I have also heard you insinuate that successfully using BM's NK will trade BM's skillset for the NK'd player's skillset. First, is that accurate? Second, if you successful redirect a player, will that affect your skillset? What if you successfully redirect a player and consequently cause an NK?

[elvis_knits]

A successful use of my power (whatever it is, be it vig or redirect) results in the my current powers being traded for my target's powers.

So my vig was traded for BM's powers which were 1)Fill with tiny hole (kill) and 2)Redirect.

Last night I tried to use fill with tiny holes, but was blocked. I have now lost that ability. But I still can use the redirect, because my powers have not been replaced.

If I successfully redirect someone, I will gain that player's powers.

So like if I am able to redirect the SK, I will gain his arson ability (kill) and anything else if he has it. Percy seems to think an SK could be able to block. I doubt it. BUT, if that's part of the SK's deal, I will get it too. So in a way, it's sort investigative, in that I will be able to tell you exactly what a certain player's night powers are (if I am not blocked, and am still alive). I do not take on passive abilities though... like if the SK is NK immune, I won't get that. I can only take on active abilities, like ones that require a night choice.

[Iecerint]

Can you redirect X -> X?

For example, could we kill RBscum, redirect otherscum->otherscum, then lynch SK?

[Iecerint]

OH, and I just remembered that thing I figured out and then forgot that I mentioned yesterday --

Redirector did the kill N1. This implies that the other two scum had better stuff to do N1. But if RBscum is an X-shot RBer, then it would have made more sense for RBscum to do the kill N1, right? Since he presumably was either saving up his RB to get (n+1) RBs or just not using any of his finite number of RBs.

So either scum erred D1 (possible -- BM was the one that was replaced, though), or something's up. It could also be that RBscum had to sit out the kill to accrue a RB N1; that would still explain things. Or SK could have had the extra RB as Percy mentioned.

[Iecerint]

(The point is that the X-shot RBscum theory is probably not right.)

[Iecerint]

(EBWOP: In spite of the fact that it resembles Percy's claim. Could be that he changed it in extra ways, though, obvs.)

[Iecerint]

On second thought, you don't necessarily need to share whether X->X redirects are allowed. The important thing is that you personally obtain access to that information. The fact that you have 2 viable NAs available to you incentivizes both teams to use their kills, which reduces the likelihood that either group will take no action to subvert your ability.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm playing with the idea whether the SK has a block ability myself, but I find it implausible. I don't think we can afford a second chance of confirming my NK-immunity, which throws out an idea I've had.

[elvis_knits]

Well, N1 scum don't know what power roles are out there. If there is a watcher or tracker, they don't want a scum who isn't suspected to go out and do the kill. Boxman was the best choice to go out and do the kill since he was already exposed.

If there's a goon on the mafia team, but he was not suspected, I don't know if they would risk his exposure to save boxman to use his redirect. I mean, maybe they would. But I don't think it's a sure thing. They might have chose to send boxman just because that protects the other members.

[Iecerint]

That could be. My naive N1 bias given the Neto flip would have been that trackers would track BM and watchers wouldn't watch SF, so it's not the way I would've played it, but I've never been scum on this site, so I don't know what the norms are.

[elvis_knits]

Well, I think the odds are probably in your favor, but we can't be sure.

What do you think this means about the double-RB last night?

[Iecerint]

There are two possibilities:

1. There are 2 roleblockers.
2. There is 1 double roleblocker.

If there are 2 roleblockers and they can both do it again tonight, we have (probably) already lost, so that's not really worth considering. (We may still be OK if one of the RBers was SK depending on how he decides to play, but that's outside our control.)

So I think we should assume a double roleblocker. My interpretation of the BM choice implied that the RBer was either part of a motivator+RB set (less likely, as no one reported RBs N1, but that could be poor target choice by scum) or that the RBer could "save up" RBs (e.g. maybe foregoing RB N1 and N2 would allow up to 3 RBs N3) by taking no action. But if scum just used BM because he was suspicious, then that's all irrelevant and an X-shot RBer is still feasible.

Basically, nothing has changed that our goal is to lynch a scumRBer. The only reason what I noticed was relevant is that X-shot RBer matched Percy's claim, but my interpretation made an X-shot RBer unlikely, so the resemblance was no longer as suspect. Not that I don't still think Percy is probably the best choice.

Let me know if you meant something different by your question.

[elvis_knits]

It's all so confusing and I'm finding it hard to be completely convinced about anything.

But I think lynching Percy is really the right thing to do. I'm not sure how much more sure I will ever become though. I'm starting to think we just have to take our best shot at this and hope we're right.

[Iecerint]

Everyone should keep in mind that EK has 2 viable redirect options. She can redirect either the scum kill or the SK kill. This means that both scum teams stand to benefit on average from using their kill tonight.

[elvis_knits]

Well, if they don't both shoot, they are handing the win to the other team.