Mini 857 Disney Movie Mafia 2 - The Classics (Roll Credits)

[semioldguy]

By process of elimination, I'm thinking SOG is most likely to be scum. Robin Hood as a Vanilla Townie seems rather "meh," since there's likely greater potential for that role. Also, SOG is the only one of the claimed vanillas to not give flavor reasons for

why

he has no night actions.

I don't have flavor for why I don't have a night action.

My suspects are the same as Starbuck's, but in reverse order.

@Crazy
You shouldn't have aimed for town today. Especially if you think it is a three person scum team. It essentially means the town cannot win in that scenario (if it's currently at 2-2-1). If we lynch you, we lose. If we lynch town, we lose. If we lynch scum, we are either at 2-1-1 or 1-1-1 the next day.

2-1-1
You kill someone who you think is town putting it a 1-1-1 and into night. At this point scum knows they can't kill you (which is why it's 2-1-1) and they kill the last town, town loses. I don't know or care who wins at that point, since I can't.

1-1-1
If we lynch you, town loses. If we lynch scum, town loses. If we no-lynch, you kill one of us anyway and you win.

What motivation does town have to help you when YOU just made it nearly impossible for the town victory condition to go off.

Also I don't trust that you share your win condition with someone. Regardless of whether it's true or not, winning with you is not my win condition. I am playing for the town which means winning with you would mean going against my own win condition, excluding StrangerCoug, curiouskarmadog, MonkeyMan576, Gorrad, chamber and Kmd4390 from a victory they trust the town to carry on for them after their own deaths.

[Crazy]

You're totally scum, SOG. You're arguing that the town should lynch me and let the mafia win. Come on.

Simply put:
If I am lynched today, mafia wins.
If a townie is lynched today, mafia wins.
If mafia is lynched today, I will win along with one other person.

Supporting any lynch that you don't think is mafia is going against your win condition, because if mafia isn't lynched, YOU WILL LOSE!

[semioldguy]

No, that isn't what I'm arguing.

How do you propose I not go against my win condition? Regardless of what I do I cannot meet MY win condition. If I go for your supposed win condition, that is also going against my win condition.

If you are a threat to the town, which you claim to be since you don't share our win condition, then my win condition says that I can't win unless you are eliminated. Killing you and not killing you both go against my win condition.

[Crazy]

No, that isn't what I'm arguing.

How do you propose I not go against my win condition? Regardless of what I do I cannot meet MY win condition. If I go for your supposed win condition, that is also going against my win condition.

If you are a threat to the town, which you claim to be since you don't share our win condition, then my win condition says that I can't win unless you are eliminated. Killing you and not killing you both go against my win condition.

Well, I just realized that the town can still win as a group... if mafia is lynched today, nobody dies tonight, mafia is lynched tomorrow, then I could be quicklynched on the final day before I'm able to erase anybody.

Yes, that is very unlikely to happen, but nevertheless, it makes your point moot, because even by your standards you should take a 1% chance of winning over a 0% chance of winning.

[semioldguy]

Do you see me voting for you?

The other option would be that there isn't a three man scum team, that there were only two. In which case if we lynch mafia today than town wins for sure, since erasing one of us in that case tomorrow will still leave enough town to lynch you.

[semioldguy]

Regardless I am not going to play to YOUR win condition and no one else should either. It can't be trusted as true and goes against the town win condition.

I will be aiming for scum today.

[semioldguy]

The other hope is that you accidentally shoot scum tomorrow instead of town if there is not a kill during the night.

[Kublai Khan]

Well, I just realized that the town can still win as a group... if mafia is lynched today, nobody dies tonight, mafia is lynched tomorrow, then I could be quicklynched on the final day before I'm able to erase anybody.

I think this sounds a little BS-y. I don't think you

just realized

it could happen. By letting the mafia know that you're unnightkillable, you've guaranteed that a group town win is less likely to succeed.

But I guess that's pretty moot. Your claim isn't really up for argument.

My scorecard is saying that Starbuck and semioldguy are scum. With a big gap of uncertainty between the former and the latter.

[Starbuck]

Nice OMGUS on both myself and Semioldguy.

Vote: Kublai Khan

I feel secure in this vote.

[Kublai Khan]

Nice OMGUS on both myself and Semioldguy.

Vote: Kublai Khan

I feel secure in this vote.

WTF? How the hell is an OMGUS vote

at this stage in the game

a scummy move? Do you even know what OMGUS means? Do you even know how it implies scumminess?

I didn't track Jazzmyn going anywhere on the night that StrangerCoug died and I know that I'm not scum. So why the hell are you acting like you're surprised that you're my top scum suspect? Your finger-pointing (and now OMGUS-accusing) is the play of a scum who knows that they are trapped by their claim and doesn't have a good shot at victory. You've made no arguments against me, instead you're just clinging to vague implications against Brandi. At least make this game interesting by trying to get a townie lynched instead of just flailing.

Semioldguy is getting a bit of leeway as he's only scum in my view from Process of Elimination, not his words/actions. The likelyhood of Jazzmyn being scum that didn't have any night actions is super-slim at best.

Vote: Starbuck

[Starbuck]

Nice overreaction. I also love your ad hom attacks towards me. BTW, ad hom = scummy.

I'm not flailing as you accuse me of. Brandi was plenty scummy before she left this game. You filled the slot. The person may have changed, but whatever the role is, did not. I tried to give you a chance and at first, you may have had me. You no longer do. You could easily be (and probably are) distancing from your other scum partner. You are the person I find to be the scummiest, and that's where my vote needs to be.

You are falsely mistaken if you think my lynch will give the town scum.

[Kublai Khan]

Hey Crazy, now that you fullclaimed and stated that you know which claims are true and false...

What kind of weight and relevance should I give this quote:

Between Starbuck's fakeclaim and ...

[Starbuck]

LOL, I'm guessing you didn't read below that where he said he mistyped and the whole reason why he thinks I'm town is because of my claim.

[Kublai Khan]

Nice overreaction. I also love your ad hom attacks towards me. BTW, ad hom = scummy.

Again, do you even know what ad hominem means? Because I sure as hell didn't attack your character. I'm accusing you of misappropriating an argument for questionable gains.

I'm not flailing as you accuse me of. Brandi was plenty scummy before she left this game. You filled the slot. The person may have changed, but whatever the role is, did not.

I tried to give you a chance and at first, you may have had me. You no longer do.

You could easily be (and probably are) distancing from your other scum partner. You are the person I find to be the scummiest, and that's where my vote needs to be.

What does the bolded part even mean? Are you blaming me for your wishy-washy stances and inconsistent arguments and attitudes?

[Crazy]

I think this sounds a little BS-y. I don't think you just realized it could happen. By letting the mafia know that you're unnightkillable, you've guaranteed that a group town win is less likely to succeed.

But I guess that's pretty moot. Your claim isn't really up for argument.

The chance of town winning is very marginal; I just made that point so I could try to stump SOG.

Hey Crazy, now that you fullclaimed and stated that you know which claims are true and false...

What kind of weight and relevance should I give this quote:

No weight or relevance, it was still just a misuse of language.

I can attest that every character in the game has been accounted for; nobody has claimed a character that they are not. Starbuck IS Buzz Lightyear, SOG IS Robin Hood, you ARE copper, and Jazz IS Baloo.

[Starbuck]

@KK -

In 1259, you stated:

"Do you even know what OMGUS means? Do you even know how it implies scumminess?"

which implies to me that you don't believe I know what I am talking about, which is an attack of person.

Please refer to Attack the Person. Ad hom is not only attacking the person, but it is also about bringing up irrelevant information/arguments. Also, the part that fits the most here for me is the Circumstantial type. You are implying/arguing that I don't know what I am talking about and therefore can use that to base a case on me. You are saying such things because you can gain something from this (in this case, another town lynch), and put you closer to victory.

[semioldguy]

@Kublai Khan
If Jazzmyn was scum with someone else here, I don't find it very likely that she would have been the one to submit a kill. She would have been a prime target last night for any sort of investigation.

Also your result on Jazzmyn makes little sense to me. Why did you track Jazzmyn over Starbuck? You seemed more suspicious of Starbuck, especially considering the following:

If Jazzmyn is gambitting, then she's scum.
If she isn't gambitting, then she's town but obviously values her role less than Gorrad's.

You got to see Gorrad's flip before making your night selection choice. At this point it seems like you would have believed Jazzmyn to be town because it could be confirmed that Jazzmyn likely knew Gorrad was a power role. From your stance on the matter this would seem to lower your suspicion of her, not increase it.

Also some quotes from Today:

The only thing stopping me from voting for [Jazzmyn] now is the fact that I can't see how it's in scum's interest to try to save Gorrad. (Unless, of course, I start WIFOMing the ending moments of yesterday)

This doesn't look like someone posting who had just gotten your claimed result (nor a motivation to track her over someone else). You seem so sure of her innocence now, but you did not seem so at the start of today. Why did that change?

Furthermore:

However, I'm not setting a precedent where scum can go V/LA when asked to claim which allows them to move their claim order to the end of the line.

This also doesn't make sense when talking about someone you are fairly confident as being town with your claimed result. Your claim and posts don't line up.

[Kublai Khan]

Starbuck, you're really reaching and over-defensive..

I don't know if you know what you're talking about. If you're using OMGUS as an argument to try to get my lynch at (pretty much) MYLO, then I want you to explain exactly why that's a slam dunk case.

Explain to me why a pro-town player would not return your accusations.

While you're at it... Explain why you're not coming up with a case against me. And also explain why you're appealing to emotion by pretending that I'm somehow impugning your character by concluding that you have scummy motivations for your actions.

This is mafia. Make your case. Don't whine about the kid gloves being off.

[Starbuck]

I'm really reaching and overdefensive? Have you read any of your posts, especially your last one? Because I'm in no way being overdefensive or appealing to emotion as you allude to. I don't feel that I'm reaching, but there you go trying to paint me in a light that looks good on you, yet again.

This is mafia. You are right. If you can't take the heat, ya need to get out of kitchen.

But the other part of mafia is not doing what you have been doing which is misrepresenting me, attacking me via ad hom, and doing the exact things that you are accusing me of, such as reaching and grasping for straws.

[semioldguy]

Consider me voting for Kublai Khan, though I'd like to first hear something from Jazzmyn regarding recent events. Haven't heard from her since Crazy's scum claim.

Also I would like to hear Khan's response to my most recent post. He has been here since it has been made, but no mention of it or the accusations against him.

Also if we have four players tomorrow and lynch scum today it is in town's best interest to immediately vote Crazy. If there are three town and him, town will win, and if there are two town, one mafia and Crazy, then town are at 2-1 against mafia and still have a shot at winning. The vote can't hurt to be done immediately, because the day kills have reset the vote counts, so there is no threat of scum quick-hammering after Crazy makes a kill and no downside to killing Crazy.

[semioldguy]

Actually, scratch that last bit, since if there is Mafia it goes to night and they kill one of the remaining town to we.

Our only hope is to hit scum and hope that Crazy hit scum tomorrow. Though he probably won't shoot anyone tomorrow, since it risks him losing.

Assuming ideal play from both scum and Crazy, I don't see any possible way town can win. I'll have to think on it a while.

[Crazy]

I'm a little paranoid. Starbuck/KK, would you mind unvoting? We have tons of time to talk before deadline... and I don't want a quickhammer.

[Jazzmyn]

There's a lot going on here (at home) but I will do my best to catch up tonight and then post my thoughts on all that has transpired recently in the game.

Regards,
Jazz

[semioldguy]

Okay, so I have done some calculating. For this post it will be assumed the of the remaining players that two are mafia, two are town and Crazy is SK. A summary will be included at the end.

A red number indicates a scenario in which the mafia win, green for town and indigo for Crazy. A black number indicates a scenario that does not end the game and leads to more options.

DAY THREE:

(1)

Town lynch, scum kill the last of the townies and have a 2:1 majority and win. Mafia victory.

(2)

If we lynch Crazy, scum still kill one of the townies and have a 2:1 majority and win. Mafia victory.

(3) Scum lynch allows the game to go on. So lets see what outcomes arise from optimal play if we hit mafia with the lynch today....

NIGHT THREE:

(1)

Mafia night kill one of the town. That leaves the next day with 1:1:1. On Day Four, Crazy kills someone and wins. Not good for mafia or town, both lose.

(2) Mafia try to kill Crazy and he can be killed, then Crazy loses and the next day is a 2:1 with a chance for town and mafia to win.

(3) Mafia try to kill Crazy and he is not night killable or if mafia choose to submit a no-kill, then we are left with 2:1:1. This next day scenario will be under DAY FOUR.

DAY FOUR (A)

, If Crazy chooses not to day kill anyone:

(1)

Town lynch. Scum can kill town at night, and lose to Crazy's kill the next day, try to kill Crazy again in case night immunity was only one use, or not kill anyone leaving the 1:1:1 scenario as listed above (both town and mafia lose). Either way town loses. Mafia have a slim shot at victory here and Crazy has a good shot at winning.

(2)

A Crazy lynch here leads to a scum victory as they kill one of the townies the following night.

(3)

A scum lynch will lead to a night without a kill and 2 townies versus Crazy. Crazy kills someone the next day before he can be lynched and wins. Or in the unlikely event both town get into the thread and vote crazy the town wins (as long as any other chance for town to win remains, I am not shooting for this option; it is a last resort).

DAY FOUR (B)

, If Crazy day kills town:

(1)

The last two players lynch Crazy and mafia win.

(2)

Mafia and Crazy lynch town and Crazy wins.

(3)

Town and Crazy lynch mafia and Crazy wins.

(4)

No lynch leads to Mafia killing the last town and then Crazy wins the next day. Or Mafia attempt to kill Crazy and either win by killing him or send us into 1:1:1 scenario listed above that town cannot win.

DAY FOUR(C)

, Crazy day kills mafia:

(1)

The last two town lynch Crazy and win.

SUMMARY/THOUGHTS:

If Crazy is able to be killed at night he cannot win, as optimal play for scum is to shoot at Crazy (unless by shooting at town they win, and thus Crazy cannot win regardless). Therefore I believe that Crazy would not have claimed unless he thought it would not decrease his chances of survival. Therefore I am going to largely discount Night 3-2 as a possibility.

If we get a mafia lynch today, Crazy wins in all scenarios where he does not day kill a player tomorrow and is not lynched. Day killing a player does not prevent his lynch as it would take every other player in the game voting him to lynch him at this point, killing someone would therefore not make a difference.

This makes it in Crazy's best interest not to shoot anyone tomorrow. Town can't win if Crazy doesn't shoot tomorrow (except for rare lucky circumstance in Day 4a-3). As long as he doesn't shoot anyone Crazy cannot lose if we lynch mafia today unless Crazy is lynched. Since shooting anyone will never prevent his own lynch if it were to happen, Crazy has no motivation to shoot anyone.

If scum want to win they have to avoid being lynched today or ensure Crazy's lynch on a future day.

Optimal play dictates that town will not win if the setup has left us with two mafia, two town and a serial killer.

My next post will include a complete scenario chart if there were only two mafia players at the beginning of the game.

[semioldguy]

I didn't include calculations for no-lynches, but I did work them out. All that does is make odds worse for town (or rather it keeps the odds at no chance in hell). Doing so generally just gives the anti-town factions both an extra kill-attempt which they will use to further their own goals and not the town's. I didn't calculate who it benefited more percentage-wise as I am not included in those win condition and felt no reason to do so after I figured out town's chances of winning. I can assure you that no-lynching didn't leave any new opportunities for town to win. I'll probably post them eventually though, right now I am working on 3-1-1 scenarios, which are coming next.